Asteroids have caused 26 nuclear bomb sized explosions since 2000 – SU Global Summit 2018

Since the year 2000, the array of microphones for detecting nuclear bomb detonation has detected 26 nuclear-sized explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere which have been caused by asteroid impacts. Those impacts have ranged from 1 kiloton to 600 kilotons.

Danica was elected President of B612 Foundation in 2017 and leads the organization’s global efforts to protect Earth from the potential asteroid impacts. Danica presented at SU Global Summit 2018. Nextbigfuture interviewed her about B612 Asteroids.

B612 Foundation is dedicated to planetary defense against asteroids and other near-Earth object (NEO) impacts.

The once a century asteroid event was the Tunguska event in 1908. The explosion over the sparsely populated Eastern Siberian Taiga flattened 2,000 square kilometers (770 square miles) of forest. It was a 3-5 megaton explosion.

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope starts in 2019

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is a wide-field survey reflecting telescope with an 8.4-meter primary mirror, currently under construction, that will photograph the entire available sky every few nights. It will begin operating in 2019.

It can detect asteroids from 100 meters or larger. In the first 60 days of operation the LSST telescope should detect about 50,000 new near earth asteroids.

Currently we have detected 18,000 out of 3 million near earth asteroids.

Atlas telescope

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS; Observatory codes T05 and T08) is an astronomical survey and robotic, early-warning system for detecting smaller near-Earth objects a few weeks to days before they impact Earth. Funded by NASA, and developed and operated by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy, the system’s current two 0.5-meter telescopes are located at Haleakala (ATLAS-HKO) and Mauna Loa (ATLAS-MLO) observatories, on two of the Hawaiian Islands and 160 km apart. Each of the two telescope surveys one-quarter of the whole observable sky four times per clear night, for a four-fold coverage of the observable sky every two clear nights. ATLAS began observations in 2015. Its two-telescope version is fully operational since 2017, and the project is seeking funding for two additional telescopes in the Southern hemisphere.

Neocam

The Near-Earth Object Camera (NEOCam) is a proposed space-based infrared telescope designed to survey the Solar System for potentially hazardous asteroids. NEOCam would survey from the Sun–Earth L1 Lagrange point, allowing it to look close to the Sun and see objects inside Earth’s orbit. NEOCam would be the successor of the NEOWISE mission; the principal investigator is NEOWISE’s principal investigator, Amy Mainzer of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

In 2016, the NEOCam team proposed to launch in 2021 and find two-thirds of missing objects in the larger-than-140-meters category within four years.

Synthetic Tracking of Asteroids

On 10 May, 2018, B612 announced a partnership with York Space Systems, a Denver-based maker of standard 85-kilogram satellites, to investigate building a fleet of small asteroid hunters. B612 has developed a new technique to do the same thing as a $450 million Sentinal space telescope at a far lower cost with small space telescopes. Ed Lu, B612’s co-founder, expects the first telescope to cost about $10 million and believes a full constellation “would be a factor of many, many cheaper” than Sentinel.

Synthetic tracking takes up to 100 snapshots in a single second. A dim asteroid won’t appear in any particular image, but by arranging and stacking the photos in thousands of combinations, the system can get lucky and preferentially brighten an unknown fast-moving object.

We would need to launch space telescopes with the latest GPUs and FPGA chips to do the calculations. There is lag getting the best computer chips rated for space flight. We need to accelerate getting better computing into space to improve space imaging and analysis.

Finding Very Small Near-Earth Asteroids using Synthetic Tracking (2013)

Synthetic Tracking of asteroids is an approach that would significantly increases the sensitivity for finding and tracking small and fast near-Earth asteroids (NEA’s). This approach relies on a combined use of a new generation of high-speed cameras which allow short, high frame-rate exposures of moving objects, effectively “freezing” their motion, and a computationally enhanced implementation of the “shift-and-add” data processing technique that helps to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) for detection of NEA’s. The SNR of a single short exposure of a dim NEA is insufficient to detect it in one frame, but by computationally searching for an appropriate velocity vector, shifting successive frames relative to each other and then co-adding the shifted frames in post-processing, we synthetically create a long-exposure image as if the telescope were tracking the object. This approach, which we call “synthetic tracking,” enhances the familiar shift-and-add technique with the ability to do a wide blind search, detect, and track dim and fast-moving NEA’s in near real time. We discuss also how synthetic tracking improves the astrometry of fast-moving NEA’s. We apply this technique to observations of two known asteroids conducted on the Palomar 200-inch telescope and demonstrate improved SNR and 10-fold improvement of astrometric precision over the traditional long exposure approach. In the past 5 years, about 150 NEA’s with absolute magnitudes H=28 (~10 m in size) or fainter have been discovered. With an upgraded version of our camera and a field of view of (28 arcmin)^2 on the Palomar 200-inch telescope, synthetic tracking could allow detecting up to 180 such objects per night, including very small NEAs with sizes down to 7 meters.

Asteroid Day

B612 is a founding partner to Asteroid Day. Rusty and I, along with filmmaker Grig Richters and astrophysicist/rockstar Brian May, decided to make this idea into a reality in 2014. And this year, we really saw what is possible:

* A 48-hour live broadcast with contributions from space agencies across the globe (Thanks ESA, NASA and JAXA!)

* Asteroid and astronomy events on 6 continents (c’mon Antarctica!)

* Media across the globe writing about asteroids (check out this CNN piece and this New York Times article)

* And asteroids trending across social media

60 thoughts on “Asteroids have caused 26 nuclear bomb sized explosions since 2000 – SU Global Summit 2018”

  1. On the other hand, when that Titan ICBM in Arkansas blew up in the 1980s, the explosion flipped the 740-ton silo door out of the way in a heartbeat and threw the second stage into the air, which then blew up and threw the warhead a quarter of a mile down the road. It did not go off (it did not even leak). Failsafes worked. I got this from an eyewitness who arrived at the scene minutes afterwards (and which is now confirmed by Wikipedia). Further, unless things have changed a lot, ICBM warheads can’t be armed until they have left the atmosphere and reentered. It is, quite literally, physically impossible for them to detonate accidentally before these conditions are met, as there are certain physical processes that can only take place when these things happen. Failsafe means failsafe. Hopefully it does with other countries, too. NOTE: This also means that, even if their accuracy was incredible, they wouldn’t be much good for knocking down giant evil alien spaceships in orbit, or breaking up incoming asteroids and comets, certainly not without some extensive rework, despite both being somewhat common tropes in SF. I’ve no idea how they do it with the smaller, tactical ones, but, judging by the lack of evidence of any collateral damage, that probably works pretty well, too.

  2. On the other hand when that Titan ICBM in Arkansas blew up in the 1980s the explosion flipped the 740-ton silo door out of the way in a heartbeat and threw the second stage into the air which then blew up and threw the warhead a quarter of a mile down the road. It did not go off (it did not even leak). Failsafes worked. I got this from an eyewitness who arrived at the scene minutes afterwards (and which is now confirmed by Wikipedia). Further unless things have changed a lot ICBM warheads can’t be armed until they have left the atmosphere and reentered. It is quite literally physically impossible for them to detonate accidentally before these conditions are met as there are certain physical processes that can only take place when these things happen. Failsafe means failsafe. Hopefully it does with other countries too. NOTE: This also means that even if their accuracy was incredible they wouldn’t be much good for knocking down giant evil alien spaceships in orbit or breaking up incoming asteroids and comets certainly not without some extensive rework despite both being somewhat common tropes in SF.I’ve no idea how they do it with the smaller tactical ones but judging by the lack of evidence of any collateral damage that probably works pretty well too.

  3. A global killer with an ETA of 10 – 15 years may be the best thing that could happen for humanity. It would spark development and cooperation far more efficiently than WW2 and without the destruction (if we make it out alive). Just imagine the boom for space industry that would follow. First contact might be even better

  4. Just think: one badly aimed multi-kilotonne asteroid arriving at the wrong time during the cold war could have set off WW3.

  5. The fact that we survived that period is a thing of marvel. The most believable proof of divine or alien intervention conspirationists and religious folk may have.

  6. A global killer with an ETA of 10 – 15 years may be the best thing that could happen for humanity.It would spark development and cooperation far more efficiently than WW2 and without the destruction (if we make it out alive). Just imagine the boom for space industry that would follow.First contact might be even better

  7. Just think: one badly aimed multi-kilotonne asteroid arriving at the wrong time during the cold war could have set off WW3.

  8. On top of that – no inadvertent detonations at a weapons depot or due to dropped weapon. Divine intervention or simply the older generation setting a high standard? Hard to live up to those pioneers.

  9. Personally, I prefer having a loony rich guy building rockets to fulfill his childhood dream of moving to Mars one day, as a backstory for our future interplanetary drama. Albeit a global extinction threat would also work as a macguffin getting the plot in motion, but it would be way less fun if you lived through it.

  10. The fact that we survived that period is a thing of marvel. The most believable proof of divine or alien intervention conspirationists and religious folk may have.

  11. Inadvertent nuclear detonation is one of those very probable coverups because A. it seems so likely it would have happened with so many weapons being handled and tested over so many decades and B. because it’s conceivable a coverup would be possible if it was remote enough and nobody overreacted in the heat of the moment and blew the news of into the public sphere.

  12. On top of that – no inadvertent detonations at a weapons depot or due to dropped weapon. Divine intervention or simply the older generation setting a high standard? Hard to live up to those pioneers.

  13. Personally I prefer having a loony rich guy building rockets to fulfill his childhood dream of moving to Mars one day as a backstory for our future interplanetary drama.Albeit a global extinction threat would also work as a macguffin getting the plot in motion but it would be way less fun if you lived through it.

  14. The ability of mankind to forget a disaster because they will have to pay taxes to deal with is should not be underestimated. Recently we had the Ebola scare. Countries were going to deal with it. Congress cut the CDC funding.

  15. True, but initiating explosives with an impact is unlikely to have the needed timing/symmetry. I’ve read some limited, but educated-sounding conjecture about one-point safing and the explanations given about asymmetric detonation squeezing the pit into a peanut instead of a sphere seem really first principal & believable. This timing/symmetry requirement might make implosion weapons easy to safe whereas ‘gun-type’ weapons can’t be safed this way (if at all). I think a lot of US implosion weapons primaries used this ‘Swan’ design with two initiation points and a metal plates to shape the detonation wave into a converging front – so no 32 points like fat man – timing gets easier with 2 points no doubt – maybe just detonating cord.

  16. Inadvertent nuclear detonation is one of those very probable coverups because A. it seems so likely it would have happened with so many weapons being handled and tested over so many decades and B. because it’s conceivable a coverup would be possible if it was remote enough and nobody overreacted in the heat of the moment and blew the news of into the public sphere.

  17. The ability of mankind to forget a disaster because they will have to pay taxes to deal with is should not be underestimated. Recently we had the Ebola scare. Countries were going to deal with it. Congress cut the CDC funding.

  18. True but initiating explosives with an impact is unlikely to have the needed timing/symmetry. I’ve read some limited but educated-sounding conjecture about one-point safing and the explanations given about asymmetric detonation squeezing the pit into a peanut instead of a sphere seem really first principal & believable. This timing/symmetry requirement might make implosion weapons easy to safe whereas ‘gun-type’ weapons can’t be safed this way (if at all). I think a lot of US implosion weapons primaries used this ‘Swan’ design with two initiation points and a metal plates to shape the detonation wave into a converging front – so no 32 points like fat man – timing gets easier with 2 points no doubt – maybe just detonating cord.

  19. Depends what you mean by “nuclear detonation”. As Scaryjellow points out, you need controlled explosions within small fractions of a second to get the full kilotonne yield. And you need to dump a load of initiating neutrons into the mass at exactly the right time too. But a lesser accident that just gives you a critical mass can give a “fizzle” where a huge energy burst of radiation comes out, but not enough to give a full nuclear explosion. So everyone in the roon dies, and everyone in the building is at risk, but the building next door is fine. We know of at least a few cases of that happening during the original Manhattan project . en.wikipedia.or¬g/wiki/Louis_Slotin#Criticality_accident

  20. If you want scary world lines, what about the ones where Earth still had sufficiently rich uranium ores for fission to be discovered in say 1920.

  21. Depends what you mean by uclear detonation””. As Scaryjellow points out”””” you need controlled explosions within small fractions of a second to get the full kilotonne yield. And you need to dump a load of initiating neutrons into the mass at exactly the right time too.But a lesser accident that just gives you a critical mass can give a “”””fizzle”””” where a huge energy burst of radiation comes out”” but not enough to give a full nuclear explosion. So everyone in the roon dies and everyone in the building is at risk”” but the building next door is fine.We know of at least a few cases of that happening during the original Manhattan project .en.wikipedia.or¬g/wiki/Louis_Slotin#Criticality_accident”””””””

  22. If you want scary world lines what about the ones where Earth still had sufficiently rich uranium ores for fission to be discovered in say 1920.

  23. So, not to worry… right? The planet’s surface is ≈71% water. That means about 3 out of every ten asteroid strikes are over or on land. THOSE are the ones we should worry about.

  24. So not to worry… right?The planet’s surface is ≈71{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} water. That means about 3 out of every ten asteroid strikes are over or on land. THOSE are the ones we should worry about.”

  25. Politicians who yap about “dangerous man-made global warming,” need to sit up straight and pay attention: You are not preparing for the inevitable asteroid strike. Whaty does it take? A few million avoidable deaths? ASTEROIDS are the real threat! Nothing else (with the exceptionn of a WWIII-type nuclear war) can compare with that threat. And sooner or later, an asteroid WILL detonate over, or on, a large city. The really sad thing is, that threat can be countered — IF the world’s large countries make it a top priority. But instead, politicians run around in circles, clucking about “Carbon!” Squawk! “Climate Change!!” EE-EEEK!!! Lots of people are going to die due directly to their misplaced priorities. If they don’t start to prepare, the same pols should face Nuremberg-style trials, because their irresponsible non-action is criminal.

  26. Politicians who yap about dangerous man-made global warming””” need to sit up straight and pay attention: You are not preparing for the inevitable asteroid strike. Whaty does it take? A few million avoidable deaths?ASTEROIDS are the real threat! Nothing else (with the exceptionn of a WWIII-type nuclear war) can compare with that threat. And sooner or later”” an asteroid WILL detonate over or on a large city. The really sad thing is that threat can be countered — IF the world’s large countries make it a top priority. But instead politicians run around in circles”” clucking about “”””Carbon!”””” Squawk! “”””Climate Change!!”””” EE-EEEK!!!Lots of people are going to die due directly to their misplaced priorities. If they don’t start to prepare”” the same pols should face Nuremberg-style trials”” because their irresponsible non-action is criminal.”””””””

  27. So, not to worry… right?

    The planet’s surface is ≈71% water. That means about 3 out of every ten asteroid strikes are over or on land. THOSE are the ones we should worry about.

  28. Politicians who yap about “dangerous man-made global warming,” need to sit up straight and pay attention: You are not preparing for the inevitable asteroid strike. Whaty does it take? A few million avoidable deaths?

    ASTEROIDS are the real threat! Nothing else (with the exceptionn of a WWIII-type nuclear war) can compare with that threat. And sooner or later, an asteroid WILL detonate over, or on, a large city.

    The really sad thing is, that threat can be countered — IF the world’s large countries make it a top priority.

    But instead, politicians run around in circles, clucking about “Carbon!” Squawk! “Climate Change!!” EE-EEEK!!!

    Lots of people are going to die due directly to their misplaced priorities. If they don’t start to prepare, the same pols should face Nuremberg-style trials, because their irresponsible non-action is criminal.

  29. On the other hand, when that Titan ICBM in Arkansas blew up in the 1980s, the explosion flipped the 740-ton silo door out of the way in a heartbeat and threw the second stage into the air, which then blew up and threw the warhead a quarter of a mile down the road. It did not go off (it did not even leak). Failsafes worked. I got this from an eyewitness who arrived at the scene minutes afterwards (and which is now confirmed by Wikipedia). Further, unless things have changed a lot, ICBM warheads can’t be armed until they have left the atmosphere and reentered. It is, quite literally, physically impossible for them to detonate accidentally before these conditions are met, as there are certain physical processes that can only take place when these things happen. Failsafe means failsafe. Hopefully it does with other countries, too.

    NOTE: This also means that, even if their accuracy was incredible, they wouldn’t be much good for knocking down giant evil alien spaceships in orbit, or breaking up incoming asteroids and comets, certainly not without some extensive rework, despite both being somewhat common tropes in SF.

    I’ve no idea how they do it with the smaller, tactical ones, but, judging by the lack of evidence of any collateral damage, that probably works pretty well, too.

  30. Depends what you mean by “nuclear detonation”. As Scaryjellow points out, you need controlled explosions within small fractions of a second to get the full kilotonne yield. And you need to dump a load of initiating neutrons into the mass at exactly the right time too.

    But a lesser accident that just gives you a critical mass can give a “fizzle” where a huge energy burst of radiation comes out, but not enough to give a full nuclear explosion. So everyone in the roon dies, and everyone in the building is at risk, but the building next door is fine.

    We know of at least a few cases of that happening during the original Manhattan project .
    en.wikipedia.or¬g/wiki/Louis_Slotin#Criticality_accident

  31. The ability of mankind to forget a disaster because they will have to pay taxes to deal with is should not be underestimated. Recently we had the Ebola scare. Countries were going to deal with it. Congress cut the CDC funding.

  32. True, but initiating explosives with an impact is unlikely to have the needed timing/symmetry. I’ve read some limited, but educated-sounding conjecture about one-point safing and the explanations given about asymmetric detonation squeezing the pit into a peanut instead of a sphere seem really first principal & believable. This timing/symmetry requirement might make implosion weapons easy to safe whereas ‘gun-type’ weapons can’t be safed this way (if at all). I think a lot of US implosion weapons primaries used this ‘Swan’ design with two initiation points and a metal plates to shape the detonation wave into a converging front – so no 32 points like fat man – timing gets easier with 2 points no doubt – maybe just detonating cord.

  33. Inadvertent nuclear detonation is one of those very probable coverups because A. it seems so likely it would have happened with so many weapons being handled and tested over so many decades and B. because it’s conceivable a coverup would be possible if it was remote enough and nobody overreacted in the heat of the moment and blew the news of into the public sphere.

  34. On top of that – no inadvertent detonations at a weapons depot or due to dropped weapon. Divine intervention or simply the older generation setting a high standard? Hard to live up to those pioneers.

  35. Personally, I prefer having a loony rich guy building rockets to fulfill his childhood dream of moving to Mars one day, as a backstory for our future interplanetary drama.

    Albeit a global extinction threat would also work as a macguffin getting the plot in motion, but it would be way less fun if you lived through it.

  36. The fact that we survived that period is a thing of marvel. The most believable proof of divine or alien intervention conspirationists and religious folk may have.

  37. A global killer with an ETA of 10 – 15 years may be the best thing that could happen for humanity.
    It would spark development and cooperation far more efficiently than WW2 and without the destruction (if we make it out alive). Just imagine the boom for space industry that would follow.

    First contact might be even better

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