Carnival of Space 569

The Carnival of SPace 569 is up at Urban Astronomer.

The Hill – Deterring World War III with Trump’s Space Force

Planetaria – Enceladus’ water plumes contain life clues

Nextbigfuture- Gateway Foundation Spaceport envisions large scale space construction

Nextbigfuture – Making great Star Wars movies

Nextbigfuture – There are about 500 black holes with orbiting stars and tens of thousands of isolated blackholes in the Milky Way galaxy

Nextbigfuture – Elon Musk SpaceX BFR and Jeff Bezos Blue Origin are targeting fully reusable rockets.

The reusable rocket age should have started in the 1980s. However, cost-plus contracts and political bureaucracy split manufacturing of the space shuttle into 50 states. The plan was for space shuttle flights to happen once a week and for the cost to be $5 million instead of the $1+ billion that they did cost.

There has been a 40-year delay to the fully reusable rocket age.

Elon and Jeff are aware of the history of commercial air travel as bigger and more efficient planes developed from the 1920s to today.

Elon with the BFR will be leaping the reusable rocket age to the equivalent of the 1950s or 1960s in commercial aviation. The BFR could bring the cost per launch down to $5 million.

30 thoughts on “Carnival of Space 569”

  1. If even simple life is found on a moon, not even a planet, it would at least double the chances of life being found anywhere there are stars, since there are so many more moons than planets. And if it turns out that Enceladus’ life is DNA based, like Earth life, it is almost impossible that it arose independently. That means Panspermia is going on in the solar system, which means that once life begins in ANY solar system, the chances of it spreading to other solar bodies – literally like a virus – on meteors, comets, or even chunks of planetary debris during early years of a solar system’s bombardment, are very great. It means it is not only possible, but likely that if a solar system has one body with life, that it has more. This has profound implications not only for the chances of life developing, but for its persistence and longevity in a solar system. In our own solar system, it seems highly possible to likely that life once existed on Mars, and even if it doesn’t now, it certainly does on Earth. If that Mars life – or Enceladus life – is DNA based, than all life in the solar system comes from the same tree, most likely.

  2. If even simple life is found on a moon not even a planet it would at least double the chances of life being found anywhere there are stars since there are so many more moons than planets. And if it turns out that Enceladus’ life is DNA based like Earth life it is almost impossible that it arose independently. That means Panspermia is going on in the solar system which means that once life begins in ANY solar system the chances of it spreading to other solar bodies – literally like a virus – on meteors comets or even chunks of planetary debris during early years of a solar system’s bombardment are very great. It means it is not only possible but likely that if a solar system has one body with life that it has more. This has profound implications not only for the chances of life developing but for its persistence and longevity in a solar system. In our own solar system it seems highly possible to likely that life once existed on Mars and even if it doesn’t now it certainly does on Earth. If that Mars life – or Enceladus life – is DNA based than all life in the solar system comes from the same tree most likely.

  3. Given the incredible complexity of life and the highly advanced information systems such as DNA necessary for life to exist, the evidence that it arose almost immediately when conditions on Earth allowed cuts against theories that it just happened by some lucky accident. However, if life is common everywhere in the Universe, why the Fermi Paradox?

  4. Given the incredible complexity of life and the highly advanced information systems such as DNA necessary for life to exist the evidence that it arose almost immediately when conditions on Earth allowed cuts against theories that it just happened by some lucky accident. However if life is common everywhere in the Universe why the Fermi Paradox?

  5. The Fermi paradox assumes two things that are probably in error:1. That advanced civilizations will us/continue to use radio waves that we can detect with SETI which is the only way we can detect it so far on other planets. We humans are already sending more traffic through cables than through the air because it is faster and more reliable and doing so less than 100 years after the invention of radio transmission a blink of an eye in civilizational terms. Maybe future civilizations will do 100{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of that.2. That Earth is interesting enough to visit and that it is possible/worth doing for a civilization that can travel a significant percentage of the speed of light or FTL.The number of stars in the galaxy keeps going up but the last I read there are estimated to be 200b-400b just in our ordinary galaxy and maybe 100b galaxies. While that should allow for a lot of life advanced and otherwise it may be that we are just not that interesting given what’s out there.3. There are also the possibilities that advanced civilizations follow some version of the Star Trek Prime Directive not to interfere or that they actually have been here and for the most part people just won’t accept the evidence. That’s not my view but I won’t rule it out completely either.

  6. The Fermi paradox assumes two things that are probably in error: 1. That advanced civilizations will us/continue to use, radio waves that we can detect with SETI, which is the only way we can detect it so far on other planets. We humans are already sending more traffic through cables than through the air, because it is faster and more reliable, and doing so less than 100 years after the invention of radio transmission, a blink of an eye in civilizational terms. Maybe future civilizations will do 100% of that. 2. That Earth is interesting enough to visit and that it is possible/worth doing for a civilization that can travel a significant percentage of the speed of light or FTL. The number of stars in the galaxy keeps going up, but the last I read, there are estimated to be 200b-400b just in our ordinary galaxy, and maybe 100b galaxies. While that should allow for a lot of life, advanced and otherwise, it may be that we are just not that interesting, given what’s out there. 3. There are also the possibilities that advanced civilizations follow some version of the Star Trek Prime Directive not to interfere, or that they actually have been here and for the most part, people just won’t accept the evidence. That’s not my view, but I won’t rule it out completely either.

  7. Good points, Scott. But it does seem difficult to come up with an explanation for why we haven’t seen any signs of intelligent life ANYWHERE in the Universe, if life is common. Just way too many chances for the total absence.

  8. Good points Scott. But it does seem difficult to come up with an explanation for why we haven’t seen any signs of intelligent life ANYWHERE in the Universe if life is common. Just way too many chances for the total absence.

  9. And how would we detect it? We have just recently and barely, been able to detect planets, with some marginal efforts at detecting gasses in atmospheres recently. There could be entire solar system civilizations and we could never seen them.

  10. And how would we detect it? We have just recently and barely been able to detect planets with some marginal efforts at detecting gasses in atmospheres recently. There could be entire solar system civilizations and we could never seen them.

  11. Even if you ARE transmitting by EM radiation, the more efficient a coding scheme becomes, the more it looks like noise to somebody who doesn’t know the coding scheme. And that’s without deliberate efforts at encryption! But I tend to think the real error in the Fermi paradox is assuming that life automatically precedes from single cell to technological civilization. Even intelligent live on a water world might have trouble developing technology, and it’s quite possible almost all of life in the universe is stuck at the single cell level, because it’s on relatively harsh and dangerous planets, and keeps getting blasted back down to that level.

  12. Read “The Vital Question” by Nick Lane. The incorporation of mitochondria into bacteria which lead to eukaryotic cells which lead to every multi-cellular creature on Earth was an astronomically (pardon the expression) improbable event. If that’s true it means we’ll find bacteria/bacterioids everywhere, and that’s all. We may well be not just the only planet in our galaxy with intelligent life but the only one with animal life.

  13. Read The Vital Question”” by Nick Lane. The incorporation of mitochondria into bacteria which lead to eukaryotic cells which lead to every multi-cellular creature on Earth was an astronomically (pardon the expression) improbable event. If that’s true it means we’ll find bacteria/bacterioids everywhere”””” and that’s all. We may well be not just the only planet in our galaxy with intelligent life but the only one with animal life.”””

  14. Even if you ARE transmitting by EM radiation the more efficient a coding scheme becomes the more it looks like noise to somebody who doesn’t know the coding scheme. And that’s without deliberate efforts at encryption!But I tend to think the real error in the Fermi paradox is assuming that life automatically precedes from single cell to technological civilization. Even intelligent live on a water world might have trouble developing technology and it’s quite possible almost all of life in the universe is stuck at the single cell level because it’s on relatively harsh and dangerous planets and keeps getting blasted back down to that level.

  15. Yes intelligent is another great filter. I advanced life is another, I think civilization is yet another. Humans are extremely good at large scale organization. We are more like social insects than mammals in this sense. Putting 10.000 chimpanzee or wolfs together would would not be an good idea. Now most species has better sense of smell than us, perhaps larger organizations than villages are not stable for 95% of species, you are still the ruler of the planet. We always think HUMAN and our scare of the year as in nuclear war, overpopulation, pollution, global warming is the big filter. Again an species with dog like smell might hate the smell of coal so no industrial revolution, you got electricity but it was to hard to develop without the resources of industrialization. You are also an large carnivore so not many of you. Now that one was cute, The Mote in God’s Eye is the none cute one. Or controlling your breeding is easy so you never take up farming, primitive farming is idiotic hard work best if none did it easy as you would be desperate to try.

  16. Still it happened twice, both with plants and animals. Yes it took over an billion years and we might be very lucky, if not we would not had this discussion anyway. An decent chance you are right, or the other guys might simply be masking their signatures as planets are so easy to kill for an more depressive option 🙂

  17. Yes intelligent is another great filter. I advanced life is another I think civilization is yet another. Humans are extremely good at large scale organization. We are more like social insects than mammals in this sense. Putting 10.000 chimpanzee or wolfs together would would not be an good idea. Now most species has better sense of smell than us perhaps larger organizations than villages are not stable for 95{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of species you are still the ruler of the planet. We always think HUMAN and our scare of the year as in nuclear war overpopulation pollution global warming is the big filter. Again an species with dog like smell might hate the smell of coal so no industrial revolution you got electricity but it was to hard to develop without the resources of industrialization.You are also an large carnivore so not many of you. Now that one was cute The Mote in God’s Eye is the none cute one. Or controlling your breeding is easy so you never take up farming primitive farming is idiotic hard work best if none did it easy as you would be desperate to try.

  18. Still it happened twice both with plants and animals. Yes it took over an billion years and we might be very lucky if not we would not had this discussion anyway. An decent chance you are right or the other guys might simply be masking their signatures as planets are so easy to kill for an more depressive option 🙂

  19. Yes intelligent is another great filter.
    I advanced life is another, I think civilization is yet another.
    Humans are extremely good at large scale organization. We are more like social insects than mammals in this sense.
    Putting 10.000 chimpanzee or wolfs together would would not be an good idea.
    Now most species has better sense of smell than us, perhaps larger organizations than villages are not stable for 95% of species, you are still the ruler of the planet.

    We always think HUMAN and our scare of the year as in nuclear war, overpopulation, pollution, global warming is the big filter.
    Again an species with dog like smell might hate the smell of coal so no industrial revolution, you got electricity but it was to hard to develop without the resources of industrialization.
    You are also an large carnivore so not many of you.
    Now that one was cute, The Mote in God’s Eye is the none cute one.
    Or controlling your breeding is easy so you never take up farming, primitive farming is idiotic hard work best if none did it easy as you would be desperate to try.

  20. Still it happened twice, both with plants and animals. Yes it took over an billion years and we might be very lucky, if not we would not had this discussion anyway.
    An decent chance you are right, or the other guys might simply be masking their signatures as planets are so easy to kill for an more depressive option 🙂

  21. Read “The Vital Question” by Nick Lane. The incorporation of mitochondria into bacteria which lead to eukaryotic cells which lead to every multi-cellular creature on Earth was an astronomically (pardon the expression) improbable event. If that’s true it means we’ll find bacteria/bacterioids everywhere, and that’s all. We may well be not just the only planet in our galaxy with intelligent life but the only one with animal life.

  22. Even if you ARE transmitting by EM radiation, the more efficient a coding scheme becomes, the more it looks like noise to somebody who doesn’t know the coding scheme. And that’s without deliberate efforts at encryption!

    But I tend to think the real error in the Fermi paradox is assuming that life automatically precedes from single cell to technological civilization. Even intelligent live on a water world might have trouble developing technology, and it’s quite possible almost all of life in the universe is stuck at the single cell level, because it’s on relatively harsh and dangerous planets, and keeps getting blasted back down to that level.

  23. And how would we detect it? We have just recently and barely, been able to detect planets, with some marginal efforts at detecting gasses in atmospheres recently. There could be entire solar system civilizations and we could never seen them.

  24. Good points, Scott. But it does seem difficult to come up with an explanation for why we haven’t seen any signs of intelligent life ANYWHERE in the Universe, if life is common. Just way too many chances for the total absence.

  25. The Fermi paradox assumes two things that are probably in error:
    1. That advanced civilizations will us/continue to use, radio waves that we can detect with SETI, which is the only way we can detect it so far on other planets. We humans are already sending more traffic through cables than through the air, because it is faster and more reliable, and doing so less than 100 years after the invention of radio transmission, a blink of an eye in civilizational terms. Maybe future civilizations will do 100% of that.

    2. That Earth is interesting enough to visit and that it is possible/worth doing for a civilization that can travel a significant percentage of the speed of light or FTL.
    The number of stars in the galaxy keeps going up, but the last I read, there are estimated to be 200b-400b just in our ordinary galaxy, and maybe 100b galaxies. While that should allow for a lot of life, advanced and otherwise, it may be that we are just not that interesting, given what’s out there.

    3. There are also the possibilities that advanced civilizations follow some version of the Star Trek Prime Directive not to interfere, or that they actually have been here and for the most part, people just won’t accept the evidence. That’s not my view, but I won’t rule it out completely either.

  26. Given the incredible complexity of life and the highly advanced information systems such as DNA necessary for life to exist, the evidence that it arose almost immediately when conditions on Earth allowed cuts against theories that it just happened by some lucky accident.

    However, if life is common everywhere in the Universe, why the Fermi Paradox?

  27. If even simple life is found on a moon, not even a planet, it would at least double the chances of life being found anywhere there are stars, since there are so many more moons than planets. And if it turns out that Enceladus’ life is DNA based, like Earth life, it is almost impossible that it arose independently. That means Panspermia is going on in the solar system, which means that once life begins in ANY solar system, the chances of it spreading to other solar bodies – literally like a virus – on meteors, comets, or even chunks of planetary debris during early years of a solar system’s bombardment, are very great. It means it is not only possible, but likely that if a solar system has one body with life, that it has more. This has profound implications not only for the chances of life developing, but for its persistence and longevity in a solar system. In our own solar system, it seems highly possible to likely that life once existed on Mars, and even if it doesn’t now, it certainly does on Earth. If that Mars life – or Enceladus life – is DNA based, than all life in the solar system comes from the same tree, most likely.

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