Tangsiri said Iran had full control of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz that leads into it. Closing the strait would be the most direct way of blocking shipping.
“We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and there is no need for the presence of aliens like the U.S. and the countries whose home is not in here,” he said in the quote, which appeared in English translation on Tasnim.
He added, “All the carriers and military and non-military ships will be controlled and there is full supervision over the Persian Gulf. Our presence in the region is physical and constant and night and day.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most senior authority in the Islamic Republic, said last month that he supported the idea that if Iran is not allowed to export oil then no country should export oil from the Gulf.
One-third of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nextbigfuture opinion is that US will not recognize Iran’s control
The US will not recognize Iran’s control of the Strait.
If Iran tries to control US military ships then this would likely trigger a shooting conflict.
Iran’s forces versus US
Iran test-fired a ballistic missile last month. The test of an Iranian Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile coincided with a large-scale naval exercise by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard forces late last week involving over 50 small gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz to rehearse “swarm” tactics which could one day potentially shut down the vital waterway.
Iran has previously harassed US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, with the most notable case being Iran’s capture of 10 US Navy sailors in January 2016, who had drifted into Iranian waters after experiencing mechanical problems.
Iran has various anti-ship missiles. The Nasr-1 is a domestically-manufactured Iranian short range anti ship missile capable of evading radar. It has a range of about 35 kilometers (20 miles) It has the capability of destroying 1,500-tonne targets such as small warships like frigates. Nasr-1 missile can be launched from both inland bases and offshore military vessels, and is being modified to be fired from helicopters and submarines.
When commanding CENTCOM between 2010 and 2013, now-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis developed a multinational plan to minimize disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by preventing Iranian efforts to lay mines and systematically clear mines that have been deployed — assumed to be the major means to hinder traffic as it is difficult to sink a modern double-hull oil tanker by torpedo or missile attack. They would try to make larger paths through the minefields.
U.S. military planners believe that American and allied forces would defeat Iran if it attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The most optimistic planners believe U.S.-led forces could reopen the Strait within a few days while others think it could take up to three months to restore maritime traffic to normal levels.
Even in the optimistic scenario, an actual shooting war and conflict would spike oil over $100 per barrel even if a crisis was mostly resolved in days. In the short scenarios there is pipeline and other capacity and in the longer scenarios there are strategic reserves. A bigger crisis would be if a desperate Iran hit the Saudi Arabian Abqaiq oil processing facility. This would disrupt 7 million barrels per day until it was fixed.
There are US bases and US troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkey.
The US 5th Fleet is currently deployed in the Persian Gulf with carriers, ships, strike aircraft, sailors and marines and has been involved in periodic confrontations with Iranian forces.
According to the US Navy, from January 2016 to August 2017 there was an average of 2.5 interactions per month between US troops and Iranian maritime forces.
Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi reiterated that coastal and sea testing of the short-range defense Kamand system was concluded successfully. The system will be mounted on a second ship soon.
SOURCES- Dailyoilbulletin, Reuters, PressTV
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Son’t they also claim to have a amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made….which is just a copy of the 1970’s F-5?
China and Iran aren’t run by idiots. China will put Iran oil imports on the trade negotiations table. If China concedes every other item in the negotiation, but keeps Iranian oil, that’s probably a win.
It is only a war if the other side can fight back on a level playing field. There won’t be an American ground invasion but President Two Scoops might break their military’s toys with cruise missiles. An single A10 warthog could take out their “Patrol Boat” navy without reloading.
Hey, a Sopwith Camel is definitely stealth. The only radar return would be the engine.
Thing is, CHINA would go there. We (the blabbering community of couch pundits) can debate it endlessly, but China is either holds the № 1 or № 2 economy-in-the-World status. She is a huge country, a populated country, a manufacturing powerhouse. Yet, she also has near-zero domestic crude oil resources. Near none. And lest we forget so easily in this era of peppy e-vehicles that are front-page news all over the place, but less than 2% of the market and 0.1% of all vehicles on the roads (including in China!), vehicular traffic depends critically on petroleum. Without it, them cars ‘n’ trucks don’t go. Thus Old China has a materials-delivery critical problem. Mideast Oil. Copy’n’paste: https://www.maritime-executive.com/media/images/article/Photos/Charts_Graphs/Original/eia%20feb%201.png China is importing well over 8.6 million (MILLION) barrels of oil a day. 365 days a year. To fuel her burgeoning manufacturing and industrial economy. To deliver “first world” transportation options to billions (BILLIONS) of her people. Come push-to-shove, China can import oil from someplace other than the hot Mideast. But… the Mideast is convenient. Push-to-shove comes, and China gets to experiment with Suddenly Higher Gas prices. Like the 1973 Mideast Crisis did to America and Europe. Suddenly MUCH higher prices. (I apologize for ALLCAPS… normally I’d use BOLD, but VUUKLE doesn’t support it yet.) _______ Think it thru, goats… it is not in Iran’s interest to shut down the Straits of Hormuz to shipping traffic; it makes sense though for her to CONTROL the Straits of Hormuz like the troll-under-the-bridge that such control gives opportunity to rise. “You wanna pass? Twenty seven million. Cash. Now.” That kind of blue ocean piracy is what America’s presense is really about. America’s Navy would definitely squash that in a New York minute. Thing is, we can. Easily. Just have to give up on staunchly recognizing that Iran — like all other maritime countri
amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made … out of balsa and wood glue?
Iran only gets interesting if China or Russia will back up their bravado.
Son’t they also claim to have a amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made….which is just a copy of the 1970’s F-5?
China and Iran aren’t run by idiots. China will put Iran oil imports on the trade negotiations table. If China concedes every other item in the negotiation but keeps Iranian oil that’s probably a win.
It is only a war if the other side can fight back on a level playing field. There won’t be an American ground invasion but President Two Scoops might break their military’s toys with cruise missiles. An single A10 warthog could take out their Patrol Boat”” navy without reloading.”””
Hey a Sopwith Camel is definitely stealth. The only radar return would be the engine.
Thing is CHINA would go there. We (the blabbering community of couch pundits) can debate it endlessly but China is either holds the № 1 or № 2 economy-in-the-World status. She is a huge country a populated country a manufacturing powerhouse. Yet she also has near-zero domestic crude oil resources. Near none. And lest we forget so easily in this era of peppy e-vehicles that are front-page news all over the place but less than 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the market and 0.1{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of all vehicles on the roads (including in China!) vehicular traffic depends critically on petroleum. Without it them cars ‘n’ trucks don’t go. Thus Old China has a materials-delivery critical problem. Mideast Oil. Copy’n’paste: https://www.maritime-executive.com/media/images/article/Photos/Charts_Graphs/Original/eia{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}20feb{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}201.pngChina is importing well over 8.6 million (MILLION) barrels of oil a day. 365 days a year. To fuel her burgeoning manufacturing and industrial economy. To deliver first world”” transportation options to billions (BILLIONS) of her people. Come push-to-shove”” China can import oil from someplace other than the hot Mideast. But… the Mideast is convenient. Push-to-shove comes and China gets to experiment with Suddenly Higher Gas prices. Like the 1973 Mideast Crisis did to America and Europe. Suddenly MUCH higher prices. (I apologize for ALLCAPS… normally I’d use BOLD but VUUKLE doesn’t support it yet.)_______Think it thru”” goats… it is not in Iran’s interest to shut down the Straits of Hormuz to shipping traffic; it makes sense though for her to CONTROL the Straits of Hormuz like the troll-under-the-bridge that such control gives opportunity to rise. “”””You wanna pass? Twenty seven mill”
amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made … out of balsa and wood glue?
Iran only gets interesting if China or Russia will back up their bravado.
They claimed it was stealth, too? Oh boy…
target all… cruise missiles… America will only react … destroyed all targets” (paraphrased) Yes, of course. But if you’re the warmonger attempting to secure this action and make it succeed, you’d have to be mighty quick about it. Like in “one early morning”. Because you can put good money on the bet that America’s network of warships and AWACS and alliance shore-stationed RADAR and other early warning facilities are multiply lighting up Iran’s entire shore and interior. Its not like the cruise missiles’ points-of-origin will be a mystery. And not being a mystery, if fired off rather more slowly, after the 3rd or 4th attack, we’d just “Blast Em” as their noses peek from their hidey-holes. Preemption. And we’d KEEP smacking them so long as their bellicose nature persists. As I pointed out in a main comment, IRAN has a LOT of sovereign interests, both in her own borders and abroad. The nation — like most rather large nations — has a huge infrastructure of roads, waterways, pipelines, electrical generating and distribution stations. She has ginormous sectors of Tehran, Qom, Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, Karaj, Ahvez, Kermanshah, and so on, carved out for industrial and research. Production, manufacturing, the rest. And all of them it turns out are critically dependent on power and water. Thing is … in order tho’ that America not look internationally like a schoolyard über-bully (even with the irony of not acting out until attacked albeit indirectly!) being the 12,000 lb elephant, she cannot go rampaging disproportionately. As attractive as that might be on one level, it plays into the hands of those who hold special vitriol in their hearts against America. So, whatever response we were to make, it’d appear muted. it might even appear weeny. Appearing weeny though can be quite powerful. Especially when its weeny-with-surprising-stealth-and-precision. Orchestrating a precisely timed geopolitical diplomatic-and-military strike gets a Big Message across w
Yep. Its a big lollipop, Iranian Oil. Without it, China would still be “OK” — given enough time to react. There are plenty of other oil exporters in the world, and the FUNGIBLE nature of the resource means that while Iran might be embargoed from exporting entirely, there is also no way for her to squeeze off the back-and-forth of oil tankers thru the Strait of Hormuz. Not without sizable and quick American intervention. Messy? Sure thing. GoatGuy
Part II (because of over-short comment limits) That doesn’t make him a good leader. But it sure gives him the power to keep the punditry off-balance. And the Media would love — just as much as the MIC — a shooting war to start on Trump’s watch. Showing him “and his policies” to be the Cassus Bellae … And thus indicting the Old Fâhrt as an unconstitutional warmonger. Food for Impeachment. GoatGuy
Big-bada-Boom indeed! Superficially, Iran’s strutting and puffing looks amateurish. She’s trying to be a nation, whole duck: sovereignty requires defense-of-borders-and-economics. The US president’s imposition of sanctions, again, has definitely raised the ante for what-it-means to be a competent sovereign in the Mideast. Rattle the swords. Puff up, hiss … swagger. I think it’ll all go nowhere. Iran knows full well that the US is not going to stand by like a wooden dummy whilst Old Persia starts to “piratize” the Gulf. US’s allies — all those oil kingdoms — definitely aren’t going to wait around very long before sending envoys to the Oval Office. The military conspiracist might conclude that the U.S. is chomping at the bit, looking for an opportunity to do some shooting. The military-industrial complex for sure would LOVE a hot, shooting war. Not just a battle, not just a limited action, but the full deal. Gin up orders for wartime materiel and supplies. Guns and butter. Bullets and beans. Yet — being entirely honest about it — our capricious American president doesn’t seem particularly inclined to Follow the Sheep of conventional US Sovereignty Posturing, and to just be satisfied with steaming about her boats, ships, corvettes and submarines. He likes to shoot things. So it seems. And at other times, to NOT shoot things, when it seems obvious that his character might nominally engage shooting. A capricious leader, he. Capricious, but neither arbitrary or infallably risible. The NORKS somehow got a Big Pass. Kind of, sort of. This is changing day by day, so who the hêll knows. The Chinese couldn’t be less amused with the Orange Haired president, yet at least on the surface his driving interests are entirely supportable American interests: a balance of tariffs, if there are to be tariffs at all. The detractors-of-the-throne cite all this as why he’s a crackpot, and needs to go. But in truth — again, somewhat reluctantly said — his capricious
Look so long as China has a high level of energy and food dependence on trade they are venerable. Each of their “islands” in the South China Sea could be wiped out with no warning by a single cruise missile Ohio, Seawolf or Virginia capable sub. A pair of B-2s flying over launched from Australia, flying over India and Nepal (using the Himal as cover) could launch enough Tomahawks to take out every major pipeline entering China. The best AA missile systems have about a 400-600 mile range, a Tomahawk is more than double that and good luck spotting a B-22 in a mountain range. Over Nepal a B-2 could hit 2/3 of China with Tomahawks. China was getting almost 5% of its food from the US (US produces nearly double the food it consumes). They have issues in terms of energy and food security. The US is pretty much self sufficient (7% of US energy is imported, net food exporter). US and most of the world mostly buys trinkets from China (it is a lot of trinkets), while China depends on the US and EU nations for high-end manufacturing (jet engines and commercial aircraft). Meanwhile China has little recourse without going all out MAD, since they cant do anything in a conventional weapons conflict. US can conventionally strike China (either its foreign infrastructure or it itself); however, the reverse is not true. The US has no qualms about destroying infrastructure inside non-nuclear armed nations. If that infrastructure happens to benefit China then that is there problem for needing it.
China can get oil thru pipelines from Iran, Iraq and the “stan” countries. She doesn’t have to get oil thru the Strait.
Shore to ship missiles aimed at oil tankers would caused a lot of pain. Hide the launchers. Target all the oil loading facilities in the Gulf with cruise missiles. The US will only react after you have destroyed them all.
your reasoning is correct (as it is often the case), but one of the premises was a little imprecise: China has some domestic production (some 4 million barrels/day), but yes, it’s clearly not enough for its huge appetite. They’re the no. 1 importer and you can see they’re trying anything they can to reduce dependency (electric cars, nuclear, renewables, efficiency, etc…), but it’s clearly not gonna suffice; so they plan on securing this flow of materials that is so strategic to them with the (non-violent) Belt Road initiative. Case in point: oil pipelines that go from Iran to China through Pakistan – they’ve bought their way into Paki politics. Iran is barking, because it really doesn’t want to bite. It just has to act tough to try to negotiate from a supposedly better position. But if they’re cut out of export because of the sanctions that will begin in November, they will have to do something to try to force the situation and not be choked. Iranian leadership is probably fully aware that a CIA-sponsored ayatollah-toppling “Shia spring” is just behind the corner at the first hints of economic malaise. If the situation gets tense, then China may chime in to fulfill its auto-assigned role of world’s non-violent peace-keeper and force everyone into an agreement, which is less costly/messy than a violent conflict. However, this is a great opportunity for the US to try to choke China’s long term access to energy, thus slowing down the emergence of a rival. It’s also a great opportunity for China to foster a reduction of the US dollar dominance in world trade by letting the US show it can weaponize the SWIFT system, thus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation. You see how conflict arise? Always in the same way, from a school brawl to a world war: two parties think they’re right, they “have to” engage in conflict and they’re both sure they’re gonna win quick
They claimed it was stealth too? Oh boy…
target all… cruise missiles… America will only react … destroyed all targets”” (paraphrased)Yes”” of course. But if you’re the warmonger attempting to secure this action and make it succeed”” you’d have to be mighty quick about it. Like in “”””one early morning””””. Because you can put good money on the bet that America’s network of warships and AWACS and alliance shore-stationed RADAR and other early warning facilities are multiply lighting up Iran’s entire shore and interior. Its not like the cruise missiles’ points-of-origin will be a mystery.And not being a mystery”” if fired off rather more slowly after the 3rd or 4th attack”” we’d just “”””Blast Em”””” as their noses peek from their hidey-holes. Preemption. And we’d KEEP smacking them so long as their bellicose nature persists. As I pointed out in a main comment”” IRAN has a LOT of sovereign interests both in her own borders and abroad. The nation — like most rather large nations — has a huge infrastructure of roads waterways pipelines electrical generating and distribution stations. She has ginormous sectors of Tehran Qom Tabriz Isfahan Mashhad Karaj Ahvez Kermanshah and so on carved out for industrial and research. Production manufacturing the rest. And all of them it turns out are critically dependent on power and water.Thing is … in order tho’ that America not look internationally like a schoolyard über-bully (even with the irony of not acting out until attacked albeit indirectly!) being the 12000 lb elephant she cannot go rampaging disproportionately. As attractive as that might be on one level it plays into the hands of those who hold special vitriol in their hearts against America. So whatever response we were to make it’d appear muted. it might even appear weeny. Appearing weeny though can be quite powerful. Especially when its weeny-with-surprising-stealth-and-precision. Orchestrating a precisely timed geopolitical diplomatic-and-military strike gets a Big Message”
Yep. Its a big lollipop Iranian Oil. Without it China would still be OK”” — given enough time to react. There are plenty of other oil exporters in the world”” and the FUNGIBLE nature of the resource means that while Iran might be embargoed from exporting entirely”” there is also no way for her to squeeze off the back-and-forth of oil tankers thru the Strait of Hormuz. Not without sizable and quick American intervention. Messy? Sure thing.GoatGuy”””
Part II (because of over-short comment limits)That doesn’t make him a good leader. But it sure gives him the power to keep the punditry off-balance.And the Media would love — just as much as the MIC — a shooting war to start on Trump’s watch.Showing him and his policies”” to be the Cassus Bellae …And thus indicting the Old Fâhrt as an unconstitutional warmonger. Food for Impeachment.GoatGuy”””””””
Big-bada-Boom indeed! Superficially Iran’s strutting and puffing looks amateurish. She’s trying to be a nation whole duck: sovereignty requires defense-of-borders-and-economics. The US president’s imposition of sanctions again has definitely raised the ante for what-it-means to be a competent sovereign in the Mideast. Rattle the swords.Puff up hiss … swagger. I think it’ll all go nowhere. Iran knows full well that the US is not going to stand by like a wooden dummy whilst Old Persia starts to piratize”” the Gulf. US’s allies — all those oil kingdoms — definitely aren’t going to wait around very long before sending envoys to the Oval Office. The military conspiracist might conclude that the U.S. is chomping at the bit”” looking for an opportunity to do some shooting. The military-industrial complex for sure would LOVE a hot shooting war. Not just a battle not just a limited action but the full deal. Gin up orders for wartime materiel and supplies. Guns and butter. Bullets and beans. Yet — being entirely honest about it — our capricious American president doesn’t seem particularly inclined to Follow the Sheep of conventional US Sovereignty Posturing and to just be satisfied with steaming about her boats ships corvettes and submarines. He likes to shoot things. So it seems. And at other times to NOT shoot things when it seems obvious that his character might nominally engage shooting. A capricious leader he.Capricious but neither arbitrary or infallably risible. The NORKS somehow got a Big Pass. Kind of sort of. This is changing day by day so who the hêll knows. The Chinese couldn’t be less amused with the Orange Haired president yet at least on the surface his driving interests are entirely supportable American interests: a balance of tariffs if there are to be tariffs at all. The detractors-of-the-throne cite all this as why he’s a crackpot and needs to go. But in truth — again somewhat reluctantly said — his capric”
Look so long as China has a high level of energy and food dependence on trade they are venerable. Each of their islands”” in the South China Sea could be wiped out with no warning by a single cruise missile Ohio”” Seawolf or Virginia capable sub. A pair of B-2s flying over launched from Australia flying over India and Nepal (using the Himal as cover) could launch enough Tomahawks to take out every major pipeline entering China. The best AA missile systems have about a 400-600 mile range a Tomahawk is more than double that and good luck spotting a B-22 in a mountain range. Over Nepal a B-2 could hit 2/3 of China with Tomahawks. China was getting almost 5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of its food from the US (US produces nearly double the food it consumes). They have issues in terms of energy and food security. The US is pretty much self sufficient (7{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US energy is imported net food exporter). US and most of the world mostly buys trinkets from China (it is a lot of trinkets) while China depends on the US and EU nations for high-end manufacturing (jet engines and commercial aircraft). Meanwhile China has little recourse without going all out MAD since they cant do anything in a conventional weapons conflict. US can conventionally strike China (either its foreign infrastructure or it itself); however”” the reverse is not true. The US has no qualms about destroying infrastructure inside non-nuclear armed nations. If that infrastructure happens to benefit China then that is there problem for needing it.”””
China can get oil thru pipelines from Iran Iraq and the stan”” countries. She doesn’t have to get oil thru the Strait.”””
Shore to ship missiles aimed at oil tankers would caused a lot of pain. Hide the launchers. Target all the oil loading facilities in the Gulf with cruise missiles. The US will only react after you have destroyed them all.
your reasoning is correct (as it is often the case) but one of the premises was a little imprecise: China has some domestic production (some 4 million barrels/day) but yes it’s clearly not enough for its huge appetite. They’re the no. 1 importer and you can see they’re trying anything they can to reduce dependency (electric cars nuclear renewables efficiency etc…) but it’s clearly not gonna suffice; so they plan on securing this flow of materials that is so strategic to them with the (non-violent) Belt Road initiative. Case in point: oil pipelines that go from Iran to China through Pakistan – they’ve bought their way into Paki politics.Iran is barking because it really doesn’t want to bite. It just has to act tough to try to negotiate from a supposedly better position. But if they’re cut out of export because of the sanctions that will begin in November they will have to do something to try to force the situation and not be choked. Iranian leadership is probably fully aware that a CIA-sponsored ayatollah-toppling Shia spring”” is just behind the corner at the first hints of economic malaise. If the situation gets tense”” then China may chime in to fulfill its auto-assigned role of world’s non-violent peace-keeper and force everyone into an agreement which is less costly/messy than a violent conflict.However this is a great opportunity for the US to try to choke China’s long term access to energy thus slowing down the emergence of a rival. It’s also a great opportunity for China to foster a reduction of the US dollar dominance in world trade by letting the US show it can weaponize the SWIFT system thus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation. You see how conflict arise? Always in the same way from a school brawl to a world war: two parties think they’re right”” they “”””have to”””” engage in conflict and they’re both sure they’re gonn”
China and Iran aren’t run by idiots.” Doesn’t factor in at all. They could both be run by absolute geniuses…but are still subject to the same geopolitical realities nonetheless.
Wrong. Do you even know the difference between transportation by water vs overland?
Thing is, CHINA would go there. ” With what, exactly? China does not possess a blue water navy despite the Wu Mau claims otherwise. Not to mention that just behind the US Navy, the Indian Navy owns the Indian Ocean. “That kind of blue ocean piracy is what America’s presense is really about. America’s Navy would definitely squash that in a New York minute.” Why? The US Navy is no longer in the business of protecting the world’s maritime shipping. The Cold War is over and Teflon Don is rewriting our military and foreign policy policies to reflect that. FINALLY. So as long as US ships are not hit — civilian and military — its not our problem. Two wars in the Middle East to secure ASIAN & EUROPEAN oil supplies was more than enough. America won’t tolerate it anymore. So, Iran’s biggest challenge is to make sure that the Silkworm missile fired on that Liberian-registered oil tanker it was aiming for doesn’t accidentally set target lock on the US destroyer that was behind it, instead. And it is far, far more probable that Iran will be hitting ships that had docked/are going to dock at Saudi oil terminals as the first shot in the Real War in the ME: Iran vs Saudi Arabia.
What are you talking about?
this could trigger US-Iran war” Only if they attack one of our ships. Attacking other ships is a different story. So in that, yes. They can claim to control the Straits if they want to.
China and Iran aren’t run by idiots.””Doesn’t factor in at all. They could both be run by absolute geniuses…but are still subject to the same geopolitical realities nonetheless.”””
Wrong. Do you even know the difference between transportation by water vs overland?
Thing is” CHINA would go there. “”With what”” exactly? China does not possess a blue water navy despite the Wu Mau claims otherwise. Not to mention that just behind the US Navy”” the Indian Navy owns the Indian Ocean. “”””That kind of blue ocean piracy is what America’s presense is really about. America’s Navy would definitely squash that in a New York minute.””””Why? The US Navy is no longer in the business of protecting the world’s maritime shipping. The Cold War is over and Teflon Don is rewriting our military and foreign policy policies to reflect that. FINALLY.So as long as US ships are not hit — civilian and military — its not our problem. Two wars in the Middle East to secure ASIAN & EUROPEAN oil supplies was more than enough. America won’t tolerate it anymore. So”” Iran’s biggest challenge is to make sure that the Silkworm missile fired on that Liberian-registered oil tanker it was aiming for doesn’t accidentally set target lock on the US destroyer that was behind it instead.And it is far”” far more probable that Iran will be hitting ships that had docked/are going to dock at Saudi oil terminals as the first shot in the Real War in the ME: Iran vs Saudi Arabia.”””
What are you talking about?
this could trigger US-Iran war””Only if they attack one of our ships. Attacking other ships is a different story. So in that”””” yes. They can claim to control the Straits if they want to.”””
Let alone the irony that a person who, according to his own words, is poor like a church mouse and still defends the interests of the military lobby who is taking money from him (not the smartest guy in the room, if I may).. “As attractive it may be to [rampage disproportionately]” .. says the would-be bully but we do not *look like* the bad guys. Oh, those European liberals who still value the lives of the Iranian people, if only we get rid of them, we would be freer to do what we like, right? Sometimes, I think that, for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in. Bad people, yes, but not *cowards* like someone here.. As for the “it takes a while before the pain starts modifying their bad behaviour” , I think this “awhile” is quite “long awhile”, that is from 1979. And I do not see it change anytime soon, not today, not tomorrow Sorry, American, China is buying Iranian oil and Korea provides them with mobiles. Iran does not need you anymore Amen
Funny that WTA, the biggest trohll of NBF is praised by “we would like to start a war with Iran but we can not do it as it would make us look bad” Mr. GoatGuy In Italy we often that testicles go by pair.. Problem here is that all the US “empire” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined . This assumption is changing If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait, the whole oil market will be at risk Colonies of the US (that is, Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy..) will look at the US to help them out The US has two options 1) intervene and start a long war of attrition with Iran, that would probably last decades and which would be 10 time worse than the 2003 invasions . Iran can also decide to break out and forget their religious committments going to build a couple of nukes that can be easily moved into mainland Unites states. Yes, they can do that . At this point, the United States would be dead . And I mean , dead 2) forget to intervene and leave it to other countries to deal with their problem . Fine enough>? not quite. Colonies of the US would then understand they can not rely on their master to have them solve their problems. Which means they would have to start deal with their problems by themselves. Which means they will not buy US dollars and would not bow to US pressure anymore . Which means the end of US dominance and the birth of a new multipolar world with the US dollar not be taken as the reserve currency In both ways, the US as a superpower would be done Not a beasts to trifle with, Iran .. Luca Ma ZZa (R)
China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil, so this point is moot. Maybe coward Europeans will bow to US pressure but not China probably not India And China can make up for all the difference if they want Given Drumpf not-so smart trade war with China, they have more enough reasons to do this
Copy or not, it sill works Remember Iran does not need to *match* US technology, just be strong enough to avoid being *bullied by * the US This is the strategy they have adopted in the last 40 years And this strategy has *worked*
Ah, the voice of reason. Long time, Mr. Ape. I think you are essentially right: if we (Americans) are to really “do the right thing”, the the sovereignty of the seas requires us NOT to defend other nations ships, unless specifically asked of us … as allies, or by covenants … by whatever flag they’re flying. Oldest Law of the Sea, this. Our Teflon Don is as you say doing a fine job reminding the Lost-in-Space Lefties that we do NOT actually have to engage most nations for their egregious actions, so long as the inflicted-upon parties aren’t our own. For the most part. Then there’s NATO, but with The Don’s year of twittering, I think he’d be pretty hard pressed to come to the defense of a German or French freighter. Perhaps if it is sinking… Because in business, sometimes the best time to buy “loyalty” is when the other guy’s warehouse is burning down. Offer to help, quickly, but with certain mutually agreeable strings attached. All that. Geopolitics. Interesting stuff. GoatGuy
Let alone the irony that a person who according to his own words is poor like a church mouse and still defends the interests of the military lobby who is taking money from him (not the smartest guy in the room if I may).. As attractive it may be to [rampage disproportionately]”” .. says the would-be bully but we do not *look like* the bad guys. Oh”” those European liberals who still value the lives of the Iranian people if only we get rid of them we would be freer to do what we like right? Sometimes I think that for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in. Bad people yes”” but not *cowards* like someone here.. As for the “”””it takes a while before the pain starts modifying their bad behaviour”””” “””” I think this “”””awhile”””” is quite “”””long awhile”””””” that is from 1979. And I do not see it change anytime soon not today not tomorrow Sorry American”” China is buying Iranian oil and Korea provides them with mobiles. Iran does not need you anymore Amen”””
Funny that WTA the biggest trohll of NBF is praised by we would like to start a war with Iran but we can not do it as it would make us look bad”” Mr. GoatGuy In Italy we often that testicles go by pair.. Problem here is that all the US “”””empire”””” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined . This assumption is changing If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait”” the whole oil market will be at risk Colonies of the US (that is Japan Germany the UK Italy..) will look at the US to help them out The US has two options 1) intervene and start a long war of attrition with Iran that would probably last decades and which would be 10 time worse than the 2003 invasions . Iran can also decide to break out and forget their religious committments going to build a couple of nukes that can be easily moved into mainland Unites states. Yes they can do that . At this point the United States would be dead . And I mean dead 2) forget to intervene and leave it to other countries to deal with their problem . Fine enough>? not quite. Colonies of the US would then understand they can not rely on their master to have them solve their problems. Which means they would have to start deal with their problems by themselves. Which means they will not buy US dollars and would not bow to US pressure anymore . Which means the end of US dominance and the birth of a new multipolar world with the US dollar not be taken as the reserve currency In both ways the US as a superpower would be done Not a beasts to trifle with”” Iran .. Luca Ma ZZa (R)”””
China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil so this point is moot. Maybe coward Europeans will bow to US pressure but not China probably not India And China can make up for all the difference if they want Given Drumpf not-so smart trade war with China they have more enough reasons to do this
Copy or not it sill works Remember Iran does not need to *match* US technology just be strong enough to avoid being *bullied by * the US This is the strategy they have adopted in the last 40 years And this strategy has *worked*
Ah the voice of reason. Long time Mr. Ape. I think you are essentially right: if we (Americans) are to really do the right thing””” the the sovereignty of the seas requires us NOT to defend other nations ships unless specifically asked of us … as allies or by covenants … by whatever flag they’re flying. Oldest Law of the Sea this. Our Teflon Don is as you say doing a fine job reminding the Lost-in-Space Lefties that we do NOT actually have to engage most nations for their egregious actions so long as the inflicted-upon parties aren’t our own. For the most part. Then there’s NATO but with The Don’s year of twittering I think he’d be pretty hard pressed to come to the defense of a German or French freighter. Perhaps if it is sinking…Because in business”” sometimes the best time to buy “”””loyalty”””” is when the other guy’s warehouse is burning down. Offer to help”” quickly”” but with certain mutually agreeable strings attached. All that.Geopolitics. Interesting stuff.GoatGuy”””””””
Russia has backed up Assad and they would probably backup Iran And Russia has about 20x times the fighters in the region the US has
What are you smoking? Please tell me what it is, must be good! Iran has 1000s of small sized still deaedly patrol boats difficult to intercept still armed with deadly Qader missiles And very strong ground to air missile defences that can take off any US plane in the range of 100s of kms from Iran borders Wild lions, Iranians, you cant bully them so easily, sorry for you american
The CIA ayatollah toppling happened in 1953 At that time the US was huge, Iran was a mouse Many things changed since 1953 The CIA can not tdo this any more. Just saying..
Russia has backed up Assad and they would probably backup Iran And Russia has about 20x times the fighters in the region the US has
What are you smoking? Please tell me what it is must be good! Iran has 1000s of small sized still deaedly patrol boats difficult to intercept still armed with deadly Qader missilesAnd very strong ground to air missile defences that can take off any US plane in the range of 100s of kms from Iran borders Wild lions Iranians you cant bully them so easily sorry for you american
The CIA ayatollah toppling happened in 1953 At that time the US was huge Iran was a mouse Many things changed since 1953 The CIA can not tdo this any more. Just saying..
As in Italy we say, some people are “pissing outside the vase”. In other words, they have no clue of what they are talking about In other words, it is not me (Luca Maz za) supporting and praising Italian fascism, it is the bunch of the NBF armchair generals (GoatGuy , Tim, Tom, GoatGuy) who is trying to praise US fascism And since they get kicked they scream “.. but Italian fascism is dead!” Without understanding that nobody here is supporting Italian fascism Nor ever supported Nor supported the people who did that Will they ever understand? I wont hold my breaath..
Probably as *they* have no wish to attack as *they* are already on all fronts doing *just fine* and winning in Siria and Iraq. It is the US who is trying to bully Iran, not the other way around remember There has been no take over of the US government by Iran, it was the other way So Iran staying independent and enlarging their circles and influence *is* a victory while the US losing their influence and failing to have Iran falling to their knees count as a loss. Luca Ma ZZa (R)
almost no reason to reply. But this choice chestnut: “In Italy we often that testicles go by pair.. ” (sic) at least needs SOME sort of rejoinder. Italy. The country who invited Hitler to take over, got Mussolini and ended up eating both its own heart, lungs and sweetmeats in an effort to show Greater Europe that Fascism could be the winning socio-economic formula for greater Europe? Mmmm… Jeez. I just coughed up a spleen. Laughing. Wish on, Lucca. Your delusions of past gradeur … remain past, grand. GoatGuy
LOL if whatever you are talking upose is 50% true, then “they” would have figured a covert attack and used 1 or more of those vaunted supermissiles already. But they have not ummmm because they only got WISH missles LOL GoatGuy
As in Italy we say some people are pissing outside the vase””. In other words”” they have no clue of what they are talking about In other words it is not me (Luca Maz za) supporting and praising Italian fascism it is the bunch of the NBF armchair generals (GoatGuy Tim Tom”” GoatGuy) who is trying to praise US fascism And since they get kicked they scream “”””.. but Italian fascism is dead!”””” Without understanding that nobody here is supporting Italian fascism Nor ever supported Nor supported the people who did that Will they ever understand? I wont hold my breaath..”””
Probably as *they* have no wish to attack as *they* are already on all fronts doing *just fine* and winning in Siria and Iraq. It is the US who is trying to bully Iran not the other way around remember There has been no take over of the US government by Iran it was the other way So Iran staying independent and enlarging their circles and influence *is* a victory while the US losing their influence and failing to have Iran falling to their knees count as a loss. Luca Ma ZZa (R)
almost no reason to reply.But this choice chestnut: In Italy we often that testicles go by pair.. “” (sic) at least needs SOME sort of rejoinder. Italy. The country who invited Hitler to take over”” got Mussolini and ended up eating both its own heart lungs and sweetmeats in an effort to show Greater Europe that Fascism could be the winning socio-economic formula for greater Europe?Mmmm… Jeez. I just coughed up a spleen.Laughing.Wish on Lucca.Your delusions of past gradeur … remain past”” grand.GoatGuy”””
LOLif whatever you are talking upose is 50{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} true then they”” would have figured a covert attack and used 1 or more of those vaunted supermissiles already.But they have notummmmbecause they only got WISH misslesLOLGoatGuy”””
Also: In an Iran-US war, the Israelis will chip in immediately bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
It’s easy to control something, as long as you make no effort to actually exert that control.
the per usual hot air statement , the iranians may be gaining in syria and yemen but taking ownership of the arabi… persian gulf from the american navy is one bridge too far
Also: In an Iran-US war the Israelis will chip in immediately bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
It’s easy to control something as long as you make no effort to actually exert that control.
the per usual hot air statement the iranians may be gaining in syria and yemen but taking ownership of thearabi… persian gulf from the american navy is one bridge too far
The Iranians are increasingly fed up with poverty, shortages, and lack of freedom while their resources are being consumed by foreign wars in places like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Wouldn’t be surprised if all the bluster is for domestic consumption, trying to stir anti-US patriotic feelings. Problem is, people are wise to the tactic.
Iran doesn’t have to do much to greatly affect the oil business. Sink just one tanker in the Gulf of Hormuz. Even better, an empty one. Send a Iranian frigate to pick up the crew, take them to the airport and send them home. What happens next? Lloyd’s of London raises the insurance rates on any tankers passing through the Straight. Next day, oil prices skyrocket; price at the pump in the USA changes almost immediately. Would we fight over that? Doubtful.
The character of a country, and of its leaders, can put a spoke in the ‘geopolitical realities’. The Soviet Union’s attempt to add Finland to its ‘ prison house of nations ‘ is one example. The US has fought four major wars since WW2, with increasingly dominant military power, against third world opponents. The results – Korea, a stalemate; Vietnam, a defeat; Iraq and Afghanistan, conventional battlefield victory followed by expensive, bloody policing attempts. Add Libya, now a mess and a launch point for refugees into Europe, and Syria, where intervention by Turkey, Saudi, and America has only bought destruction and radicalisation. The British Empire first tried ‘ pacification by bombing ‘ against Iraqi tribes in the 1920s. The same tactics are being used by Israel in Gaza, and by the Saudis in Yemen, with America supplying the munitions. The long term results are generally the reverse of ‘pacification.’
Iran doesn’t have to do much to greatly affect the oil business. Sink just one tanker in the Gulf of Hormuz. Even better an empty one. Send a Iranian frigate to pick up the crew take them to the airport and send them home. What happens next? Lloyd’s of London raises the insurance rates on any tankers passing through the Straight. Next day oil prices skyrocket; price at the pump in the USA changes almost immediately. Would we fight over that? Doubtful.
The character of a country and of its leaders can put a spoke in the ‘geopolitical realities’. The Soviet Union’s attempt to add Finland to its ‘ prison house of nations ‘ is one example. The US has fought four major wars since WW2 with increasingly dominant military power against third world opponents. The results – Korea a stalemate; Vietnam a defeat; Iraq and Afghanistan conventional battlefield victory followed by expensive bloody policing attempts. Add Libya now a mess and a launch point for refugees into Europe and Syria where intervention by Turkey Saudi and America has only bought destruction and radicalisation. The British Empire first tried ‘ pacification by bombing ‘ against Iraqi tribes in the 1920s. The same tactics are being used by Israel in Gaza and by the Saudis in Yemen with America supplying the munitions. The long term results are generally the reverse of ‘pacification.’
Given that Italy’s birthrate is near the very bottom of the entire world, testicle talk might not be appropriate, even for Luca.
Sometimes, I think that, for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in. ” The Nazis fought bravely & died for what they believed in, as well. But as to your larger point, I am all for giving ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives. They’ve been doing a lot of that since Trump took office and it’s a good look for them.
The Iranians are increasingly fed up with poverty shortages and lack of freedom while their resources are being consumed by foreign wars in places like Yemen Syria and Iraq. Wouldn’t be surprised if all the bluster is for domestic consumption trying to stir anti-US patriotic feelings.Problem is people are wise to the tactic.
Given that Italy’s birthrate is near the very bottom of the entire world testicle talk might not be appropriate even for Luca.
Sometimes I think that” for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in. “”The Nazis fought bravely & died for what they believed in”” as well. But as to your larger point I am all for giving ISIS Al Qaeda”” and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives. They’ve been doing a lot of that since Trump took office and it’s a good look for them.”””
Iran economy is growing some 4% per year And they do not need Frank James to tell them what to do..
I could not care less about Italian birth rate, dude Try again, Sam!
But as to your larger point, I am all for giving ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives. -> If they bring a few hundreds of US lives out in the process as well? Just saying..
You mean, like the US with Iran? Just saying..
Dunno if they could. Iran has few 10000s of missiles pointed at them
Iran economy is growing some 4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year And they do not need Frank James to tell them what to do..
I could not care less about Italian birth rate dude Try again Sam!
But as to your larger point I am all for giving ISIS Al Qaeda and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives. -> If they bring a few hundreds of US lives out in the process as well? Just saying..
You mean like the US with Iran? Just saying..
Dunno if they could. Iran has few 10000s of missiles pointed at them
China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil, so this point is moot.” More Matteo Martini lies, as usual.
If oil spiked to $150/barrel or NO_OIL_AT_ANY_PRICE …which it would if a war broke out between Europe and Russia or Iran and Saudi Arabia, then you will see nations SEIZING oil tankers via outright piracy. Indian Navy commandeering oil tankers heading to China, Vietnam, Indonesian, Malaysia, etc. Japanese SDF Navy doing the same, etc. We are just one war of oil-exporting-powers-involved away from exactly that kind of a scenario. Except in the US. In the US, we are just one Trump Tweet away from re-instituting the oil export ban. So we will have $75/barrel, at most. And still lots of oil at that price.
hus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation. ” The moment they try to do that, the US will cut them off from all dollar transactions. Instantly. So what does that mean for China, with TRILLIONS in US dollar denominated debt reserves? They can’t sell those treasuries, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction. They can’t sell/move their cash reserves, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction. They can’t remediate interest paid out for those securities either, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction. So yeah…love to see them try it. Seriously. I WOULD LOVE to see the Chinese try that. Or anyone else, for that matter.
…yes, we know. You could care less about relevant data/facts when they prove your BS trolling.
Problem here is that all the US “empire” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined . ” Assumption is true. “This assumption is changing” No, it isn’t. Despite all the trolling you say otherwise. “If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait, the whole oil market will be at risk ” Good! We export oil now. “Colonies of the US (that is, Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy..) will look at the US to help them out ” They aren’t our colonies. We won’t be helping them out UNLESS they make it worth our while to do so.
Yes, exactly. Thanks to US domination of SWIFT, any bank that transfers dollars to Iran or to companies doing business with Iran can be cut off from such ability to transfer dollars. That’s enough. We don’t have to do anything directly to Iran. But then again, you think Iranians can sell their oil for PPP and buy stuff with said PPP from other’s.
China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil” so this point is moot.””More Matteo Martini lies”””” as usual.”””
If oil spiked to $150/barrel or NO_OIL_AT_ANY_PRICE …which it would if a war broke out between Europe and Russia or Iran and Saudi Arabia then you will see nations SEIZING oil tankers via outright piracy. Indian Navy commandeering oil tankers heading to China Vietnam Indonesian Malaysia etc. Japanese SDF Navy doing the same etc. We are just one war of oil-exporting-powers-involved away from exactly that kind of a scenario. Except in the US. In the US we are just one Trump Tweet away from re-instituting the oil export ban. So we will have $75/barrel at most. And still lots of oil at that price.
hus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation. “”The moment they try to do that”” the US will cut them off from all dollar transactions. Instantly.So what does that mean for China with TRILLIONS in US dollar denominated debt reserves?They can’t sell those treasuries because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction. They can’t sell/move their cash reserves because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction.They can’t remediate interest paid out for those securities either because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction.So yeah…love to see them try it. Seriously. I WOULD LOVE to see the Chinese try that. Or anyone else”” for that matter.”””
…yes we know. You could care less about relevant data/facts when they prove your BS trolling.
Problem here is that all the US “”empire”””” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined . “”””Assumption is true.””””This assumption is changing””””No”””” it isn’t. Despite all the trolling you say otherwise.””””If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait”””” the whole oil market will be at risk “”””Good! We export oil now.””””Colonies of the US (that is”” Japan Germany the UK”” Italy..) will look at the US to help them out “”””They aren’t our colonies. We won’t be helping them out UNLESS they make it worth our while to do so.”””
Yes exactly. Thanks to US domination of SWIFT any bank that transfers dollars to Iran or to companies doing business with Iran can be cut off from such ability to transfer dollars. That’s enough. We don’t have to do anything directly to Iran. But then again you think Iranians can sell their oil for PPP and buy stuff with said PPP from other’s.
Wowsers! Why do they need you to do their PR?
Wowsers! Why do they need you to do their PR?
Wowsers! Why do they need you to do their PR?
“China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil, so this point is moot.”
More Matteo Martini lies, as usual.
If oil spiked to $150/barrel or NO_OIL_AT_ANY_PRICE …which it would if a war broke out between Europe and Russia or Iran and Saudi Arabia, then you will see nations SEIZING oil tankers via outright piracy. Indian Navy commandeering oil tankers heading to China, Vietnam, Indonesian, Malaysia, etc. Japanese SDF Navy doing the same, etc.
We are just one war of oil-exporting-powers-involved away from exactly that kind of a scenario.
Except in the US. In the US, we are just one Trump Tweet away from re-instituting the oil export ban. So we will have $75/barrel, at most. And still lots of oil at that price.
“hus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation. ”
The moment they try to do that, the US will cut them off from all dollar transactions. Instantly.
So what does that mean for China, with TRILLIONS in US dollar denominated debt reserves?
They can’t sell those treasuries, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction.
They can’t sell/move their cash reserves, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction.
They can’t remediate interest paid out for those securities either, because that would involve a SWIFT dollar transaction.
So yeah…love to see them try it. Seriously. I WOULD LOVE to see the Chinese try that.
Or anyone else, for that matter.
…yes, we know. You could care less about relevant data/facts when they prove your BS trolling.
“Problem here is that all the US “empire” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined . ”
Assumption is true.
“This assumption is changing”
No, it isn’t. Despite all the trolling you say otherwise.
“If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait, the whole oil market will be at risk ”
Good! We export oil now.
“Colonies of the US (that is, Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy..) will look at the US to help them out ”
They aren’t our colonies. We won’t be helping them out UNLESS they make it worth our while to do so.
Yes, exactly. Thanks to US domination of SWIFT, any bank that transfers dollars to Iran or to companies doing business with Iran can be cut off from such ability to transfer dollars.
That’s enough. We don’t have to do anything directly to Iran.
But then again, you think Iranians can sell their oil for PPP and buy stuff with said PPP from other’s.
Iran economy is growing some 4% per year
And they do not need Frank James to tell them what to do..
I could not care less about Italian birth rate, dude
Try again, Sam!
But as to your larger point, I am all for giving ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives.
-> If they bring a few hundreds of US lives out in the process as well?
Just saying..
You mean, like the US with Iran?
Just saying..
Dunno if they could.
Iran has few 10000s of missiles pointed at them
The Iranians are increasingly fed up with poverty, shortages, and lack of freedom while their resources are being consumed by foreign wars in places like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Wouldn’t be surprised if all the bluster is for domestic consumption, trying to stir anti-US patriotic feelings.
Problem is, people are wise to the tactic.
Given that Italy’s birthrate is near the very bottom of the entire world, testicle talk might not be appropriate, even for Luca.
“Sometimes, I think that, for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in. ”
The Nazis fought bravely & died for what they believed in, as well.
But as to your larger point, I am all for giving ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their buddies every opportunity to give their lives. They’ve been doing a lot of that since Trump took office and it’s a good look for them.
Iran doesn’t have to do much to greatly affect the oil business. Sink just one tanker in the Gulf of Hormuz. Even better, an empty one. Send a Iranian frigate to pick up the crew, take them to the airport and send them home. What happens next? Lloyd’s of London raises the insurance rates on any tankers passing through the Straight. Next day, oil prices skyrocket; price at the pump in the USA changes almost immediately. Would we fight over that? Doubtful.
The character of a country, and of its leaders, can put a spoke in the ‘geopolitical realities’. The Soviet Union’s attempt to add Finland to its ‘ prison house of nations ‘ is one example. The US has fought four major wars since WW2, with increasingly dominant military power, against third world opponents. The results – Korea, a stalemate; Vietnam, a defeat; Iraq and Afghanistan, conventional battlefield victory followed by expensive, bloody policing attempts. Add Libya, now a mess and a launch point for refugees into Europe, and Syria, where intervention by Turkey, Saudi, and America has only bought destruction and radicalisation.
The British Empire first tried ‘ pacification by bombing ‘ against Iraqi tribes in the 1920s. The same tactics are being used by Israel in Gaza, and by the Saudis in Yemen, with America supplying the munitions. The long term results are generally the reverse of ‘pacification.’
Also: In an Iran-US war, the Israelis will chip in immediately bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
It’s easy to control something, as long as you make no effort to actually exert that control.
the per usual hot air statement , the iranians may be gaining in syria and yemen but taking ownership of the
arabi… persian gulf from the american navy is one bridge too far
As in Italy we say, some people are “pissing outside the vase”.
In other words, they have no clue of what they are talking about
In other words, it is not me (Luca Maz za) supporting and praising Italian fascism, it is the bunch of the NBF armchair generals (GoatGuy , Tim, Tom, GoatGuy) who is trying to praise US fascism
And since they get kicked they scream “.. but Italian fascism is dead!”
Without understanding that nobody here is supporting Italian fascism
Nor ever supported
Nor supported the people who did that
Will they ever understand?
I wont hold my breaath..
Probably as *they* have no wish to attack as *they* are already on all fronts doing *just fine* and winning in Siria and Iraq.
It is the US who is trying to bully Iran, not the other way around remember
There has been no take over of the US government by Iran, it was the other way
So Iran staying independent and enlarging their circles and influence *is* a victory while the US losing their influence and failing to have Iran falling to their knees count as a loss.
Luca Ma ZZa (R)
almost no reason to reply.
But this choice chestnut: “In Italy we often that testicles go by pair.. ” (sic) at least needs SOME sort of rejoinder.
Italy. The country who invited Hitler to take over, got Mussolini and ended up eating both its own heart, lungs and sweetmeats in an effort to show Greater Europe that Fascism could be the winning socio-economic formula for greater Europe?
Mmmm… Jeez. I just coughed up a spleen.
Laughing.
Wish on, Lucca.
Your delusions of past gradeur … remain past, grand.
GoatGuy
LOL
if whatever you are talking upose is 50% true, then “they” would have figured a covert attack and used 1 or more of those vaunted supermissiles already.
But they have not
ummmm
because they only got WISH missles
LOL
GoatGuy
Russia has backed up Assad and they would probably backup Iran
And Russia has about 20x times the fighters in the region the US has
What are you smoking?
Please tell me what it is, must be good!
Iran has 1000s of small sized still deaedly patrol boats difficult to intercept still armed with deadly Qader missiles
And very strong ground to air missile defences that can take off any US plane in the range of 100s of kms from Iran borders
Wild lions, Iranians, you cant bully them so easily, sorry for you american
The CIA ayatollah toppling happened in 1953
At that time the US was huge, Iran was a mouse
Many things changed since 1953
The CIA can not tdo this any more.
Just saying..
Let alone the irony that a person who, according to his own words, is poor like a church mouse and still defends the interests of the military lobby who is taking money from him (not the smartest guy in the room, if I may)..
“As attractive it may be to [rampage disproportionately]” .. says the would-be bully but we do not *look like* the bad guys.
Oh, those European liberals who still value the lives of the Iranian people, if only we get rid of them, we would be freer to do what we like, right?
Sometimes, I think that, for how much I dislike Al Qaeda &C I can not help to think that they had the *balls* to give their lives for what they believe in.
Bad people, yes, but not *cowards* like someone here..
As for the “it takes a while before the pain starts modifying their bad behaviour” , I think this “awhile” is quite “long awhile”, that is from 1979.
And I do not see it change anytime soon, not today, not tomorrow
Sorry, American, China is buying Iranian oil and Korea provides them with mobiles.
Iran does not need you anymore
Amen
Funny that WTA, the biggest trohll of NBF is praised by “we would like to start a war with Iran but we can not do it as it would make us look bad” Mr. GoatGuy
In Italy we often that testicles go by pair..
Problem here is that all the US “empire” is built on the assumption that the US can do what they want and other countries have to comply or be sidelined .
This assumption is changing
If Iran intervenes and blocks the strait, the whole oil market will be at risk
Colonies of the US (that is, Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy..) will look at the US to help them out
The US has two options
1) intervene and start a long war of attrition with Iran, that would probably last decades and which would be 10 time worse than the 2003 invasions . Iran can also decide to break out and forget their religious committments going to build a couple of nukes that can be easily moved into mainland Unites states. Yes, they can do that . At this point, the United States would be dead . And I mean , dead
2) forget to intervene and leave it to other countries to deal with their problem . Fine enough>? not quite. Colonies of the US would then understand they can not rely on their master to have them solve their problems. Which means they would have to start deal with their problems by themselves. Which means they will not buy US dollars and would not bow to US pressure anymore . Which means the end of US dominance and the birth of a new multipolar world with the US dollar not be taken as the reserve currency
In both ways, the US as a superpower would be done
Not a beasts to trifle with, Iran ..
Luca Ma ZZa (R)
China has made clear thy will keep buying Iranian oil, so this point is moot.
Maybe coward Europeans will bow to US pressure but not China probably not India
And China can make up for all the difference if they want
Given Drumpf not-so smart trade war with China, they have more enough reasons to do this
Copy or not, it sill works
Remember Iran does not need to *match* US technology, just be strong enough to avoid being *bullied by * the US
This is the strategy they have adopted in the last 40 years
And this strategy has *worked*
Ah, the voice of reason. Long time, Mr. Ape.
I think you are essentially right: if we (Americans) are to really “do the right thing”, the the sovereignty of the seas requires us NOT to defend other nations ships, unless specifically asked of us … as allies, or by covenants … by whatever flag they’re flying. Oldest Law of the Sea, this.
Our Teflon Don is as you say doing a fine job reminding the Lost-in-Space Lefties that we do NOT actually have to engage most nations for their egregious actions, so long as the inflicted-upon parties aren’t our own. For the most part.
Then there’s NATO, but with The Don’s year of twittering, I think he’d be pretty hard pressed to come to the defense of a German or French freighter. Perhaps if it is sinking…
Because in business, sometimes the best time to buy “loyalty” is when the other guy’s warehouse is burning down. Offer to help, quickly, but with certain mutually agreeable strings attached. All that.
Geopolitics. Interesting stuff.
GoatGuy
“China and Iran aren’t run by idiots.”
Doesn’t factor in at all. They could both be run by absolute geniuses…but are still subject to the same geopolitical realities nonetheless.
Wrong.
Do you even know the difference between transportation by water vs overland?
“Thing is, CHINA would go there. ”
With what, exactly? China does not possess a blue water navy despite the Wu Mau claims otherwise. Not to mention that just behind the US Navy, the Indian Navy owns the Indian Ocean.
“That kind of blue ocean piracy is what America’s presense is really about.
America’s Navy would definitely squash that in a New York minute.”
Why? The US Navy is no longer in the business of protecting the world’s maritime shipping. The Cold War is over and Teflon Don is rewriting our military and foreign policy policies to reflect that. FINALLY.
So as long as US ships are not hit — civilian and military — its not our problem. Two wars in the Middle East to secure ASIAN & EUROPEAN oil supplies was more than enough. America won’t tolerate it anymore.
So, Iran’s biggest challenge is to make sure that the Silkworm missile fired on that Liberian-registered oil tanker it was aiming for doesn’t accidentally set target lock on the US destroyer that was behind it, instead.
And it is far, far more probable that Iran will be hitting ships that had docked/are going to dock at Saudi oil terminals as the first shot in the Real War in the ME: Iran vs Saudi Arabia.
What are you talking about?
“this could trigger US-Iran war”
Only if they attack one of our ships.
Attacking other ships is a different story. So in that, yes. They can claim to control the Straits if they want to.
They claimed it was stealth, too? Oh boy…
“target all… cruise missiles… America will only react … destroyed all targets” (paraphrased)
Yes, of course. But if you’re the warmonger attempting to secure this action and make it succeed, you’d have to be mighty quick about it. Like in “one early morning”. Because you can put good money on the bet that America’s network of warships and AWACS and alliance shore-stationed RADAR and other early warning facilities are multiply lighting up Iran’s entire shore and interior. Its not like the cruise missiles’ points-of-origin will be a mystery.
And not being a mystery, if fired off rather more slowly, after the 3rd or 4th attack, we’d just “Blast Em” as their noses peek from their hidey-holes. Preemption. And we’d KEEP smacking them so long as their bellicose nature persists. As I pointed out in a main comment, IRAN has a LOT of sovereign interests, both in her own borders and abroad. The nation — like most rather large nations — has a huge infrastructure of roads, waterways, pipelines, electrical generating and distribution stations. She has ginormous sectors of Tehran, Qom, Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, Karaj, Ahvez, Kermanshah, and so on, carved out for industrial and research. Production, manufacturing, the rest.
And all of them it turns out are critically dependent on power and water.
Thing is … in order tho’ that America not look internationally like a schoolyard über-bully (even with the irony of not acting out until attacked albeit indirectly!) being the 12,000 lb elephant, she cannot go rampaging disproportionately. As attractive as that might be on one level, it plays into the hands of those who hold special vitriol in their hearts against America. So, whatever response we were to make, it’d appear muted. it might even appear weeny.
Appearing weeny though can be quite powerful. Especially when its weeny-with-surprising-stealth-and-precision. Orchestrating a precisely timed geopolitical diplomatic-and-military strike gets a Big Message across with weeny physical power. When the Iranian Ambassador in Belgium is informed by the American Ambassador at 8:30 in the evening that a strike will happen in 15 minutes in Tehran and 7 other cities …. the world, watching, will definitely “get the message”: America will NOT be trifled with. If we can hit 8 cities at exactly the same time, we can hit 80. Or 250. And we can probably do it — entirely at random — whenever the Hêll we need to.
But stubborn sovereigns tend to persist in their cat-and-mouse games. Tehran might need several “booster shots” of lessons. It takes awhile before “the pain” starts modifying bad behavior.
GoatGuy
Yep. Its a big lollipop, Iranian Oil. Without it, China would still be “OK” — given enough time to react. There are plenty of other oil exporters in the world, and the FUNGIBLE nature of the resource means that while Iran might be embargoed from exporting entirely, there is also no way for her to squeeze off the back-and-forth of oil tankers thru the Strait of Hormuz. Not without sizable and quick American intervention. Messy? Sure thing.
GoatGuy
Part II (because of over-short comment limits)
That doesn’t make him a good leader.
But it sure gives him the power to keep the punditry off-balance.
And the Media would love — just as much as the MIC — a shooting war to start on Trump’s watch.
Showing him “and his policies” to be the Cassus Bellae …
And thus indicting the Old Fâhrt as an unconstitutional warmonger.
Food for Impeachment.
GoatGuy
Big-bada-Boom indeed!
Superficially, Iran’s strutting and puffing looks amateurish. She’s trying to be a nation, whole duck: sovereignty requires defense-of-borders-and-economics. The US president’s imposition of sanctions, again, has definitely raised the ante for what-it-means to be a competent sovereign in the Mideast.
Rattle the swords.
Puff up, hiss … swagger.
I think it’ll all go nowhere. Iran knows full well that the US is not going to stand by like a wooden dummy whilst Old Persia starts to “piratize” the Gulf. US’s allies — all those oil kingdoms — definitely aren’t going to wait around very long before sending envoys to the Oval Office.
The military conspiracist might conclude that the U.S. is chomping at the bit, looking for an opportunity to do some shooting. The military-industrial complex for sure would LOVE a hot, shooting war. Not just a battle, not just a limited action, but the full deal. Gin up orders for wartime materiel and supplies. Guns and butter. Bullets and beans.
Yet — being entirely honest about it — our capricious American president doesn’t seem particularly inclined to Follow the Sheep of conventional US Sovereignty Posturing, and to just be satisfied with steaming about her boats, ships, corvettes and submarines. He likes to shoot things. So it seems. And at other times, to NOT shoot things, when it seems obvious that his character might nominally engage shooting. A capricious leader, he.
Capricious, but neither arbitrary or infallably risible. The NORKS somehow got a Big Pass. Kind of, sort of. This is changing day by day, so who the hêll knows. The Chinese couldn’t be less amused with the Orange Haired president, yet at least on the surface his driving interests are entirely supportable American interests: a balance of tariffs, if there are to be tariffs at all. The detractors-of-the-throne cite all this as why he’s a crackpot, and needs to go. But in truth — again, somewhat reluctantly said — his capricious approach has merit: its the Kung Fu technique of keeping one’s opponents off balance. Hard to strike when you’re about to fall over.
Anyway, back to Iran.
LEST WE FORGET too readily, remember that this story is “made by the media” for their own self-serving end(s). Oh, sure, reporting is reporting, same as it always has been. But today, the media is almost to-a-woman slavishly driven to find stories of both direct and implied salaciousness; to undermine the president who just hates them for their duplicity, mendaciousness and unerring nihilism of the Oval Office’s achievements. Trump’s right on the money: the media is presently acting in their own self-interest and buoyed by their own misguided sense of self-righteousness. And tho’ the Sellers of Salaciousness are sucking up to every empty theory of America’s bad experiement, Trump continues to mostly ignore them, and do whatever he feels like doing.
That doesn’t make him a good leader. But it sure gives him the power to ke
Look so long as China has a high level of energy and food dependence on trade they are venerable. Each of their “islands” in the South China Sea could be wiped out with no warning by a single cruise missile Ohio, Seawolf or Virginia capable sub. A pair of B-2s flying over launched from Australia, flying over India and Nepal (using the Himal as cover) could launch enough Tomahawks to take out every major pipeline entering China. The best AA missile systems have about a 400-600 mile range, a Tomahawk is more than double that and good luck spotting a B-22 in a mountain range. Over Nepal a B-2 could hit 2/3 of China with Tomahawks. China was getting almost 5% of its food from the US (US produces nearly double the food it consumes). They have issues in terms of energy and food security. The US is pretty much self sufficient (7% of US energy is imported, net food exporter). US and most of the world mostly buys trinkets from China (it is a lot of trinkets), while China depends on the US and EU nations for high-end manufacturing (jet engines and commercial aircraft). Meanwhile China has little recourse without going all out MAD, since they cant do anything in a conventional weapons conflict. US can conventionally strike China (either its foreign infrastructure or it itself); however, the reverse is not true. The US has no qualms about destroying infrastructure inside non-nuclear armed nations. If that infrastructure happens to benefit China then that is there problem for needing it.
China can get oil thru pipelines from Iran, Iraq and the “stan” countries. She doesn’t have to get oil thru the Strait.
Shore to ship missiles aimed at oil tankers would caused a lot of pain. Hide the launchers. Target all the oil loading facilities in the Gulf with cruise missiles. The US will only react after you have destroyed them all.
your reasoning is correct (as it is often the case), but one of the premises was a little imprecise: China has some domestic production (some 4 million barrels/day), but yes, it’s clearly not enough for its huge appetite. They’re the no. 1 importer and you can see they’re trying anything they can to reduce dependency (electric cars, nuclear, renewables, efficiency, etc…), but it’s clearly not gonna suffice; so they plan on securing this flow of materials that is so strategic to them with the (non-violent) Belt Road initiative. Case in point: oil pipelines that go from Iran to China through Pakistan – they’ve bought their way into Paki politics.
Iran is barking, because it really doesn’t want to bite. It just has to act tough to try to negotiate from a supposedly better position. But if they’re cut out of export because of the sanctions that will begin in November, they will have to do something to try to force the situation and not be choked. Iranian leadership is probably fully aware that a CIA-sponsored ayatollah-toppling “Shia spring” is just behind the corner at the first hints of economic malaise.
If the situation gets tense, then China may chime in to fulfill its auto-assigned role of world’s non-violent peace-keeper and force everyone into an agreement, which is less costly/messy than a violent conflict.
However, this is a great opportunity for the US to try to choke China’s long term access to energy, thus slowing down the emergence of a rival. It’s also a great opportunity for China to foster a reduction of the US dollar dominance in world trade by letting the US show it can weaponize the SWIFT system, thus convincing non-alligned countries to switch to local currency trading and reducing one of the greatest source of power of the current hegemon nation.
You see how conflict arise? Always in the same way, from a school brawl to a world war: two parties think they’re right, they “have to” engage in conflict and they’re both sure they’re gonna win quickly. Big-bada-boom.
China and Iran aren’t run by idiots.
China will put Iran oil imports on the trade negotiations table. If China concedes every other item in the negotiation, but keeps Iranian oil, that’s probably a win.
It is only a war if the other side can fight back on a level playing field. There won’t be an American ground invasion but President Two Scoops might break their military’s toys with cruise missiles. An single A10 warthog could take out their “Patrol Boat” navy without reloading.
Hey, a Sopwith Camel is definitely stealth. The only radar return would be the engine.
Thing is, CHINA would go there.
We (the blabbering community of couch pundits) can debate it endlessly, but China is either holds the № 1 or № 2 economy-in-the-World status. She is a huge country, a populated country, a manufacturing powerhouse. Yet, she also has near-zero domestic crude oil resources. Near none.
And lest we forget so easily in this era of peppy e-vehicles that are front-page news all over the place, but less than 2% of the market and 0.1% of all vehicles on the roads (including in China!), vehicular traffic depends critically on petroleum. Without it, them cars ‘n’ trucks don’t go.
Thus Old China has a materials-delivery critical problem.
Mideast Oil.
Copy’n’paste: https://www.maritime-executive.com/media/images/article/Photos/Charts_Graphs/Original/eia%20feb%201.png
China is importing well over 8.6 million (MILLION) barrels of oil a day. 365 days a year. To fuel her burgeoning manufacturing and industrial economy. To deliver “first world” transportation options to billions (BILLIONS) of her people. Come push-to-shove, China can import oil from someplace other than the hot Mideast. But… the Mideast is convenient.
Push-to-shove comes, and China gets to experiment with Suddenly Higher Gas prices. Like the 1973 Mideast Crisis did to America and Europe. Suddenly MUCH higher prices.
(I apologize for ALLCAPS… normally I’d use BOLD, but VUUKLE doesn’t support it yet.)
_______
Think it thru, goats… it is not in Iran’s interest to shut down the Straits of Hormuz to shipping traffic; it makes sense though for her to CONTROL the Straits of Hormuz like the troll-under-the-bridge that such control gives opportunity to rise. “You wanna pass? Twenty seven million. Cash. Now.”
That kind of blue ocean piracy is what America’s presense is really about.
America’s Navy would definitely squash that in a New York minute.
Thing is, we can.
Easily.
Just have to give up on staunchly recognizing that Iran — like all other maritime countries — has any kind of sovereign claim on its [i]“international maritime borders”[/i]. Steam in, challenge her fleet of gnats, sink ’em, let her create an “International Incident” and have “Urgent UN Security Council meetings”, field and deflect the usual anti-American protests, and sink every last tub Iran floats into the Straits.
If Iran is so impetuous as to fire off volleys of anti-ship missiles, well … there are quite a few Government Buildings throughout Iran that could use some resurfacing. Or perhaps the ‘soft-hard’ targets of civilization… power plants, electricity substations, water pumping stations, Iran’s refineries. Blast ’em to bits. Little bits. Expensive to replace bits. Expensive and hard to protect from future pommelings.
Just saying.
NEVER open your negotiations with a puny pea shooter.
Or a fleet of gnats.
And a small hive of hornets.
GoatGuy
amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made … out of balsa and wood glue?
Iran only gets interesting if China or Russia will back up their bravado.
Son’t they also claim to have a amazing stealth jet fighter that is entirely home made….which is just a copy of the 1970’s F-5?