Natural gas and renewables will be most of US power and US will export oil, coal and gas

Natural gas is continuing to dominate energy usage in the United States. Coal provided 60% of US electrical power 30 years ago and was still providing 50% in 2005.

Coal is very competitive in certain parts of the United States, including in the coal hotbeds of Appalachia and the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming.

Natural gas power generation is up 17% this year. Natural gas production continues to rise. By itself natural gas is heading to 35% of US electrical power in 2019. All of the hydro, solar, wind and biomass (ethanol) will be another 15%. Combined they will be over 50% of US electrical power generation.

Depending on oil and energy prices the US will become a major net exporter of fossil fuels. The US is already exporting coal and some oil and gas. This will become a major amount. As recently as 2005, the US was importing 30% of its energy. The US is still a net importer of 10% of its energy. By 2020-2022, the US should pass to become a net exporter. If oil prices are high then natural gas prices would tend to follow as well. High prices would mean supply and production shortages elsewhere and the US could scale up to exporting 20% of its energy before 2030.

BTU anticipates 56 new or converted natural gas plants to come online by the end of next year.

CO2 emissions better but not as good as hoped

In theory, natural gas can have 50-60% of the emissions of coal. Fracking releases large amounts of natural gas – which consists of both CO2 and methane – directly into the atmosphere. Fracking wells can leak 40 to 60% more methane than conventional natural gas wells.

The Natural gas revolution did reduce overall US emissions from 2000. However, it is not tracking the optimal 50-60% of coal CO2 emissions. After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 2.0% in 2018. The increase largely reflects higher natural gas consumption because of a colder winter and warmer summer than in 2017. Emissions are forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

Increased natural gas use is also because natural gas plants back up the intermittent solar and wind power. Solar generating from 10am to 5pm with variation based on clouds. Wind also generating at different times.

Here is the energy breakdown for the USA.

Energy                      2017 (TWH)   2018 YTD   Last 12 months
Natural gas                     1273       655               1362
Coal                            1208       542               1176
Nuclear                          805       403                821
Wind, ethanol and biomass        334       192                350
Hydro                            300       162                287
Solar                             53        33                 60
Other including oil, coke         42        23                 45
Overall electricity             4015      2012               4102

54 thoughts on “Natural gas and renewables will be most of US power and US will export oil, coal and gas”

  1. Will you buy oil, gas and coal from the USA in any meaningful way? The Americans are sanctioning left and right even they are depending others to supply their daily necessities; if your energy supply lines ever have fallen into the American’s hand, you are dead as Dodo, you not only hand the saber to the American but you also turn your back to the American and pleading the American to stab it at their convenience or pleasure. The American is most untrustworthy people in the world. Anything they have is toxic, poisonous and deadly.

  2. Not everyone (New England states) have access to NG fueled generation for lack of pipeline capacity expansion. The Allam Cycle process can utilize NG (60% eff.) or coal synthesis gas (52% eff.) for fueling it’s turbine. The choice of coal sourced syn-gas will result in fifteen percent higher efficiency over the legacy coal boiler group efficiency of 37%. In addition, total emissions capture is inherent in the design at no penalty to efficiency.

  3. Natural Gas is cheaper per BTU and Natural gas power plants are more energy efficient. If is also possible to convert power plants to burn both coal and natural gas or just natural gas alone. Although it may not be economically worthwhile.

  4. Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking. Time to start dealing with all that coal toxic waste now … well, maybe next administration.

  5. Will you buy oil gas and coal from the USA in any meaningful way? The Americans are sanctioning left and right even they are depending others to supply their daily necessities; if your energy supply lines ever have fallen into the American’s hand you are dead as Dodo you not only hand the saber to the American but you also turn your back to the American and pleading the American to stab it at their convenience or pleasure. The American is most untrustworthy people in the world. Anything they have is toxic poisonous and deadly.”

  6. Not everyone (New England states) have access to NG fueled generation for lack of pipeline capacity expansion. The Allam Cycle process can utilize NG (60{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} eff.) or coal synthesis gas (52{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} eff.) for fueling it’s turbine. The choice of coal sourced syn-gas will result in fifteen percent higher efficiency over the legacy coal boiler group efficiency of 37{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. In addition total emissions capture is inherent in the design at no penalty to efficiency.

  7. Natural Gas is cheaper per BTU and Natural gas power plants are more energy efficient. If is also possible to convert power plants to burn both coal and natural gas or just natural gas alone. Although it may not be economically worthwhile.

  8. Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking. Time to start dealing with all that coal toxic waste now … well maybe next administration.

  9. My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 2o hours a week. I can’t believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do•► w­ww.Your70.c­om

  10. American citizens are extremely generous. We are not really in control of our politicians, the corporations and unions, such as they are, and a few other special interests are in control. Search “World Giving Index 2016” Myanmar, US, Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Canada, Indonesia, UK. China? Dead last. Russia? 126th.

  11. My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 2o hours a week. I can’t believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do•► w­ww.Your70.c­om

  12. American citizens are extremely generous. We are not really in control of our politicians the corporations and unions such as they are and a few other special interests are in control.Search World Giving Index 2016″” Myanmar”” US Australia New Zealand Sri Lanka Canada Indonesia”” UK. China? Dead last. Russia? 126th.”””

  13. You should know aids from USAID NED and their proxies are not handouts fpr the humanitarian purposes they are seeds of chaos misery and destructions resulting from color revolutions and regime changes funded by those aids. US will rank last if “World Giving Index” is not another Five-eye outlet; but even Obama a war criminal got Nobel Peace Prize what else is new in this West created world order and framework.”

  14. Joe – You forgot the financial straitjacket the U.S. dollar forces on the rest of the world. Just one more thing you can’t do a damned thing about except cry & lie.

  15. You should know aids from USAID, NED and their proxies are not handouts fpr the humanitarian purposes, they are seeds of chaos, misery and destructions resulting from color revolutions and regime changes funded by those aids. US will rank last if “World Giving Index” is not another Five-eye outlet; but even Obama, a war criminal, got Nobel Peace Prize, what else is new in this West created world order and framework.

  16. Joe – You forgot the financial straitjacket the U.S. dollar forces on the rest of the world.Just one more thing you can’t do a damned thing about except cry & lie.

  17. Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking.” Yes/no. China has to import it via LNG shipping, which raises the price enough where domestic coal is still competitive. And then there is the energy security aspects. Do you think China wants to end up where Japan was in the late 30s/early 40s vis a vis the US when it comes to energy dependency? So, they will have to soon decide whether they are going to make the rather non-market decision to cap imports of LNG to prevent that from happening. India will be in a similar position.

  18. Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking.””Yes/no. China has to import it via LNG shipping”” which raises the price enough where domestic coal is still competitive.And then there is the energy security aspects. Do you think China wants to end up where Japan was in the late 30s/early 40s vis a vis the US when it comes to energy dependency? So”” they will have to soon decide whether they are going to make the rather non-market decision to cap imports of LNG to prevent that from happening.India will be in a similar position.”””

  19. Hahahahahahahahah. So what is China going to do with its TRILLIONS in Dollar reserves then? Throw it into the sea?

  20. There are serval instruments on the market that can bypass the USD, Currency SWAP, China has RMB SWAP with majority industrial nations except USA; AIIB does not use USD; IMF’s SDR uses RMB; Bank of International Settlements clears RMB; and China has its own SWIFT as well as RMB based oil future, etc.; those I know by reading on the internet, Of course financial professionals know way more instruments that can bypass USD. People said USD based international transactions has falled below 50% and the declining trending in continuing. BTW Saudi accepts RMB for oil too.

  21. Hahahahahahahahah.So what is China going to do with its TRILLIONS in Dollar reserves then? Throw it into the sea?

  22. There are serval instruments on the market that can bypass the USD Currency SWAP China has RMB SWAP with majority industrial nations except USA; AIIB does not use USD; IMF’s SDR uses RMB; Bank of International Settlements clears RMB; and China has its own SWIFT as well as RMB based oil future etc.; those I know by reading on the internet Of course financial professionals know way more instruments that can bypass USD. People said USD based international transactions has falled below 50{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} and the declining trending in continuing. BTW Saudi accepts RMB for oil too.

  23. You really don’t understand energy markets at all, do you? First off, energy is largely fungible, this means that even if the US did not export a single BTU of domestically produced energy, it would still have a massive effect on the price of energy due the energy it is no longer *importing* from elsewhere. Secondly, for LNG in particular, there is no such thing as “lock-in”. If you build an LNG terminal, anyone who has the capacity to ship LNG can sell to you. The only ones who are potentially locked into US natural gas are Mexico and Canada, whom the US can sell to via pipeline, foregoing the need to liquefy the gas and transport by special ship and I don’t hear Mexico or Canada complaining much. And, while I can find plenty of sources to cite where Russia has “weaponized” non-shipment of energy to states that displease them, I challenge you to find any sort of similar history of the US doing the same thing. The only exception I can think of is the US embargo of oil to Imperial Japan to try to stop their invasion of China, something that I rather suspect you would not find grounds to argue with.

  24. You really don’t understand energy markets at all do you? First off energy is largely fungible this means that even if the US did not export a single BTU of domestically produced energy it would still have a massive effect on the price of energy due the energy it is no longer *importing* from elsewhere. Secondly for LNG in particular there is no such thing as lock-in””. If you build an LNG terminal”” anyone who has the capacity to ship LNG can sell to you. The only ones who are potentially locked into US natural gas are Mexico and Canada whom the US can sell to via pipeline foregoing the need to liquefy the gas and transport by special ship and I don’t hear Mexico or Canada complaining much. And”” while I can find plenty of sources to cite where Russia has “”””weaponized”””” non-shipment of energy to states that displease them”” I challenge you to find any sort of similar history of the US doing the same thing. The only exception I can think of is the US embargo of oil to Imperial Japan to try to stop their invasion of China”” something that I rather suspect you would not find grounds to argue with.”””

  25. Silly me, I thought we were talking about the NA market not the world market. Yes, coal will still need to be used elsewhere until technology improves to a point were it can be phased out. I like to think that fuel/power is a political issue not a technological one. Once there is enough infrastructure in space power generation will no longer be an issue. In space solar energy is 24/7.

  26. Silly me I thought we were talking about the NA market not the world market. Yes coal will still need to be used elsewhere until technology improves to a point were it can be phased out. I like to think that fuel/power is a political issue not a technological one. Once there is enough infrastructure in space power generation will no longer be an issue. In space solar energy is 24/7.

  27. Converted natural gas plants are mostly very inefficient plants. If the natural gas plants are not combined cycle, they need to be scrapped and either nuclear or combined cycle natural gas built. These inefficient plants are flying under the radar because everyone thinks natural gas is a decent alternative, but only the combined cycle natural gas plants are worth having. Only 53% of natural gas grid power is from combined cycle (2016, from eia site). If they were all combined cycle, we could export far more natural gas. The clunkers get about 35% efficiency, but combined cycle can get 62% efficiency. While it is great that people have focused on getting rid of coal, the type of natural gas plant maters too. We should also do some cogeneration stuff. The efficiency there can reach 95%. But mostly only in cold climates or just during the winter and nights (waste heat used to heat homes and other buildings). Cogeneration just is not very useful on hot days and hot nights. Perhaps for clothes dryers? Canada definitely should build some cogeneration.

  28. That is not how the World Giving Index ranks nations. It is based on personal generosity not government actions.

  29. Converted natural gas plants are mostly very inefficient plants. If the natural gas plants are not combined cycle they need to be scrapped and either nuclear or combined cycle natural gas built. These inefficient plants are flying under the radar because everyone thinks natural gas is a decent alternative but only the combined cycle natural gas plants are worth having. Only 53{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of natural gas grid power is from combined cycle (2016 from eia site). If they were all combined cycle we could export far more natural gas. The clunkers get about 35{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} efficiency but combined cycle can get 62{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} efficiency.While it is great that people have focused on getting rid of coal the type of natural gas plant maters too.We should also do some cogeneration stuff. The efficiency there can reach 95{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. But mostly only in cold climates or just during the winter and nights (waste heat used to heat homes and other buildings). Cogeneration just is not very useful on hot days and hot nights. Perhaps for clothes dryers? Canada definitely should build some cogeneration.

  30. That is not how the World Giving Index ranks nations. It is based on personal generosity not government actions.

  31. Converted natural gas plants are mostly very inefficient plants. If the natural gas plants are not combined cycle, they need to be scrapped and either nuclear or combined cycle natural gas built. These inefficient plants are flying under the radar because everyone thinks natural gas is a decent alternative, but only the combined cycle natural gas plants are worth having. Only 53% of natural gas grid power is from combined cycle (2016, from eia site). If they were all combined cycle, we could export far more natural gas. The clunkers get about 35% efficiency, but combined cycle can get 62% efficiency.

    While it is great that people have focused on getting rid of coal, the type of natural gas plant maters too.

    We should also do some cogeneration stuff. The efficiency there can reach 95%. But mostly only in cold climates or just during the winter and nights (waste heat used to heat homes and other buildings). Cogeneration just is not very useful on hot days and hot nights. Perhaps for clothes dryers? Canada definitely should build some cogeneration.

  32. Silly me, I thought we were talking about the NA market not the world market. Yes, coal will still need to be used elsewhere until technology improves to a point were it can be phased out. I like to think that fuel/power is a political issue not a technological one. Once there is enough infrastructure in space power generation will no longer be an issue. In space solar energy is 24/7.

  33. You really don’t understand energy markets at all, do you? First off, energy is largely fungible, this means that even if the US did not export a single BTU of domestically produced energy, it would still have a massive effect on the price of energy due the energy it is no longer *importing* from elsewhere.

    Secondly, for LNG in particular, there is no such thing as “lock-in”. If you build an LNG terminal, anyone who has the capacity to ship LNG can sell to you. The only ones who are potentially locked into US natural gas are Mexico and Canada, whom the US can sell to via pipeline, foregoing the need to liquefy the gas and transport by special ship and I don’t hear Mexico or Canada complaining much. And, while I can find plenty of sources to cite where Russia has “weaponized” non-shipment of energy to states that displease them, I challenge you to find any sort of similar history of the US doing the same thing. The only exception I can think of is the US embargo of oil to Imperial Japan to try to stop their invasion of China, something that I rather suspect you would not find grounds to argue with.

  34. There are serval instruments on the market that can bypass the USD, Currency SWAP, China has RMB SWAP with majority industrial nations except USA; AIIB does not use USD; IMF’s SDR uses RMB; Bank of International Settlements clears RMB; and China has its own SWIFT as well as RMB based oil future, etc.; those I know by reading on the internet, Of course financial professionals know way more instruments that can bypass USD. People said USD based international transactions has falled below 50% and the declining trending in continuing. BTW Saudi accepts RMB for oil too.

  35. “Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking.”

    Yes/no.

    China has to import it via LNG shipping, which raises the price enough where domestic coal is still competitive.

    And then there is the energy security aspects. Do you think China wants to end up where Japan was in the late 30s/early 40s vis a vis the US when it comes to energy dependency? So, they will have to soon decide whether they are going to make the rather non-market decision to cap imports of LNG to prevent that from happening.

    India will be in a similar position.

  36. Joe – You forgot the financial straitjacket the U.S. dollar forces on the rest of the world.
    Just one more thing you can’t do a damned thing about except cry & lie.

  37. You should know aids from USAID, NED and their proxies are not handouts fpr the humanitarian purposes, they are seeds of chaos, misery and destructions resulting from color revolutions and regime changes funded by those aids. US will rank last if “World Giving Index” is not another Five-eye outlet; but even Obama, a war criminal, got Nobel Peace Prize, what else is new in this West created world order and framework.

  38. American citizens are extremely generous. We are not really in control of our politicians, the corporations and unions, such as they are, and a few other special interests are in control.

    Search “World Giving Index 2016” Myanmar, US, Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Canada, Indonesia, UK. China? Dead last. Russia? 126th.

  39. My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 2o hours a week. I can’t believe how easy it was once I tried it out.

    This is what I do•► w­ww.Your70.c­om

  40. Will you buy oil, gas and coal from the USA in any meaningful way? The Americans are sanctioning left and right even they are depending others to supply their daily necessities; if your energy supply lines ever have fallen into the American’s hand, you are dead as Dodo, you not only hand the saber to the American but you also turn your back to the American and pleading the American to stab it at their convenience or pleasure. The American is most untrustworthy people in the world. Anything they have is toxic, poisonous and deadly.

  41. Not everyone (New England states) have access to NG fueled generation for lack of pipeline capacity expansion. The Allam Cycle process can utilize NG (60% eff.) or coal synthesis gas (52% eff.) for fueling it’s turbine. The choice of coal sourced syn-gas will result in fifteen percent higher efficiency over the legacy coal boiler group efficiency of 37%. In addition, total emissions capture is inherent in the design at no penalty to efficiency.

  42. Natural Gas is cheaper per BTU and Natural gas power plants are more energy efficient. If is also possible to convert power plants to burn both coal and natural gas or just natural gas alone. Although it may not be economically worthwhile.

  43. Coal has been priced out of the market. It isn’t coming back. It was killed by cheap gas byproducts of shale fracking. Time to start dealing with all that coal toxic waste now … well, maybe next administration.

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