Recessions usually occur 10-22 months after interest rate curve inverts

The U.S. economy is growing at a fast clip, and the bull market is entering its ninth year. Some economists are starting worry over rising interest rates and a negative signal from the bond market called a flattening yield curve.

The yield curve—with one exception in 1966—has basically predicted every recession according to Natixis Chief Economist Joseph LaVorgna. If the curve inverts on October, 2018 then history would say a recession would occur between August 2019 and August 2020.

“Now it’s possible that this time is different and the curve might be sending a different signal because long rates are relatively low,” LaVorgna added.

In July, the U.S. economic growth rate hit 4.1 percent for the second quarter, its fastest pace in four years. And the stock market has set a record for the longest bull market in U.S. history.

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