A research paper claims that if the world stays at 2 degrees celsius of warming versus going up to 4 degrees celsius of warming then the world economy will be US$17.5 trillion per year stronger in 2100. At 4 degrees Celsius of global warming, the losses in income to the global economy are claimed to be over US$23 trillion per year, or the equivalent in economic damage of three or four 2008 Global Financial Crises each year. They claim the damages represent roughly one-third of current global GDP and about 7% or more of projected GDP in 2100.
They projected post-2008 financial crisis european growth onto the world through 2100
7% of world GDP in 82 years is trivial. If instead of the world economy doubling every 27 years, the world economy doubles every 41 years. The world economy in 2100 would be half of its potential size.
If the World economy could double every 20 years then the world economy would be double the size of doubling every 27 years and four times the size of the doubling every 41 years.
27 year doubling needs 2.6% sustained world GDP growth.
20 year doubling needs 3.6% sustained world GDP growth.
41 year doubling needs 1.75% sustained world GDP growth.
The researchers forecasted world economic growth of about 1.3%.
The researchers were projecting post 2008 financial crisis European GDP growth rates for the whole world through 2100.
China economy currently underperforms by about 7% because air and water pollution damage. China had fast economic growth for almost 50 years is about 30 times bigger than it was in the 1970s. The cost of 7% air pollution was economically worth it. China now needs to spend to clean up the damage.
It can be a worthwhile economic tradeoff to grow faster and then fix and clean up afterward.
Economy in 2100 – $250 trillion or $700 trillion or $1400 trillino or more
The paper is projecting a global economy in 2100 of $250 trillion.
The world economy would roughly double in size by 2045 if it grew at an annual average rate of around 2.6%. Doubling every 27 years would mean a world economy eight times larger in 2100. This would be a $700 trillion economy on a nominal basis.
6 trillion more tons of additional CO2 or 2 trillion tons, 1 trillion tons of CO2 by 2100
The Paris Agreement has targets of 1.5 degree or 2 degree warming. Then each nation has promises of what they will attempt to do to meet the targets. Then there are the actual policies and the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of those policies.
The current reality of the Paris Agreement is mostly empty promises that will not meet the stated targets.
The Paris Agreement on climate is talking about emitting 745 billion tons of CO2 between the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2030 instead of 770 billions tons of CO2. This is the max if commitments were met. Currently we would be very lucky to get to 5 to 8 billion tons of total lower emissions because most countries are falling well short of slowing the increased CO2 emissions.
Solar and Wind and total world electricity
The world was using about 24,255 Terawatt hours of electricity in 2015. This has been increasing by 2 to 3% per year. This is now about 26,200 Terawatt hours in 2018. 780 TWh was added in 2017.
Renewables accounted for nearly half of the global additional generation (at 380 TWh) required to meet increasing demand, bringing their share in global generation to a record high of 25%. This was mostly hydropower in the overall generation. 4185 TWh of electricity generation was from hydro power in 2017. Hydropower could almost double by 2050, reaching 2,000 GW of global capacity and over 7,000 TWh.
Global solar power is projected to go from 500 TWh in 2018 to about 900 TWh in 2022.
Global wind power is projected to go from 1200 TWh in 2018 to about 1600 TWh in 2022.
This will cost about $1 trillion in energy build out over 5 years.
800 TWh of new solar and wind electricity. The world will add about 3500 TWh of electricity generation from 2018 to 2022.
The world is spending about $1.8 trillion per year on total energy buildout. Oil, natural gas and coal are the largest energy spending.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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