Russia is weak and has a rapidly aging and shrinking population

Russia has canceled its 5th generation fighter the Su57 (aka T50). They will build in some stealth into older planes. Russia is not able to buy large numbers of its new Armata tanks at $4 million each. They will upgrade older T72 tanks. Russia used to be the world leader in space launches. China has most of their older space rocket designs. Russia has recognized that they cannot compete with SpaceX and China in space launches.

Russia cut back its military buildup and has flat military procurement budgets for the next ten years.

Russia has had slow GDP growth or negative GDP growth since 2008.

If the US economy grows at 4% per year then the US adds more than entire Russian economy ($1.7 trillion) in less than 2 years.

Russia is weak and getting weaker relative to the US, India, Europe and the USA.

Russia’s population is shrinking again

In 2017, 1.69 million children were born in Russia which was down by 203,000 compared to 2016 and equal to the number of births in Russia in 2007. It is the third consecutive year that Rosstat has registered a decline in Russia’s birthrate.

In 2016, Russia had 1,893,237 births and 1,887,907 deaths, for a natural population increase of just 5,330 people, not counting immigration. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017. Russia’s population reduced about 131,000 in 2017 from more deaths than births. Russia did have some immigration, Russia population did grow in 2016 by 257,700 people, while in 2017, population growth amounted to only 77,400.

Russia has 782,000 births in the first half of 2018. This is tracking to about 1.55 million births for 2018. Assuming deaths stay level to 2017, then this would be a reduction of about 260,000 people in 2018.

The amount of births in Russia will likely remain low as an echo of the baby bust from 1992-2010.

Russians living in poverty increased from 15.5 million in 2013 to 19.8 million in 2016.

The number of children born in Russia in 2014 was officially reported as 1.9 million, but that figure included children born in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow seized that year.

Russia’s population peaked at more than 148 million in 1992, the year after the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s population was claimed to be 144.3 million in 2016.

There are no official population statistics for 2016. Rosstat, the official Government statistics agency, suggested that the population of Russia in 2011 was 141.8 million, and the CIA estimated that the population was even lower: 138.7 million.

Former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin forecasts a decline of 10 million people of working-age in Russians by 2033.

Russia would have had a very high ratio of old people in its populations, except there was a surge in people dying from alcohol and other issues.

Russia stabilized its longevity and increased life expectancy from 64 in 1994 back to 72.

Russia’s population could shrink to about 110 million in 2050. Although the UN projects a population fo about 132 million in 2050.

By 2050, Poland and Ukraine with some NATO support would probably have the economic and military might to resist a conventional Russian attack.

Russia should Negotiate peace with Ukraine, get more foreign investment, fix the corruption

Russia’s per capita GDP is less than Poland and Hungary, which were part of the USSR. Poland has been consistently growing at 4% per year. Russia has a fairly well-educated population. A peaceful and open Russia that invested in improving education and public health could match Poland’s growth.

Russia could get the foreign investment to finish modernizing its economy. They had the growth and investment from 1999-2008.

Russia needs to fix its crime and corruption problems.

Russia needs to fix itself up and improve its economy by making itself as useful as possible to China, India, ASEAN and Europe. There is high growth around Russia. A peaceful, clean Russia could have a lot of tourism and could participate in the economic growth around it.

Russia needs more babies and immigration more than it needs military equipment.


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