Russia is weak and has a rapidly aging and shrinking population

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Russia has canceled its 5th generation fighter the Su57 (aka T50). They will build in some stealth into older planes. Russia is not able to buy large numbers of its new Armata tanks at $4 million each. They will upgrade older T72 tanks. Russia used to be the world leader in space launches. China has most of their older space rocket designs. Russia has recognized that they cannot compete with SpaceX and China in space launches.

Russia cut back its military buildup and has flat military procurement budgets for the next ten years.

Russia has had slow GDP growth or negative GDP growth since 2008.

If the US economy grows at 4% per year then the US adds more than entire Russian economy ($1.7 trillion) in less than 2 years.

Russia is weak and getting weaker relative to the US, India, Europe and the USA.

Russia’s population is shrinking again

In 2017, 1.69 million children were born in Russia which was down by 203,000 compared to 2016 and equal to the number of births in Russia in 2007. It is the third consecutive year that Rosstat has registered a decline in Russia’s birthrate.

In 2016, Russia had 1,893,237 births and 1,887,907 deaths, for a natural population increase of just 5,330 people, not counting immigration. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017. Russia’s population reduced about 131,000 in 2017 from more deaths than births. Russia did have some immigration, Russia population did grow in 2016 by 257,700 people, while in 2017, population growth amounted to only 77,400.

Russia has 782,000 births in the first half of 2018. This is tracking to about 1.55 million births for 2018. Assuming deaths stay level to 2017, then this would be a reduction of about 260,000 people in 2018.

The amount of births in Russia will likely remain low as an echo of the baby bust from 1992-2010.

Russians living in poverty increased from 15.5 million in 2013 to 19.8 million in 2016.

The number of children born in Russia in 2014 was officially reported as 1.9 million, but that figure included children born in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow seized that year.

Russia’s population peaked at more than 148 million in 1992, the year after the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s population was claimed to be 144.3 million in 2016.

There are no official population statistics for 2016. Rosstat, the official Government statistics agency, suggested that the population of Russia in 2011 was 141.8 million, and the CIA estimated that the population was even lower: 138.7 million.

Former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin forecasts a decline of 10 million people of working-age in Russians by 2033.

Russia would have had a very high ratio of old people in its populations, except there was a surge in people dying from alcohol and other issues.

Russia stabilized its longevity and increased life expectancy from 64 in 1994 back to 72.

Russia’s population could shrink to about 110 million in 2050. Although the UN projects a population fo about 132 million in 2050.

By 2050, Poland and Ukraine with some NATO support would probably have the economic and military might to resist a conventional Russian attack.

Russia should Negotiate peace with Ukraine, get more foreign investment, fix the corruption

Russia’s per capita GDP is less than Poland and Hungary, which were part of the USSR. Poland has been consistently growing at 4% per year. Russia has a fairly well-educated population. A peaceful and open Russia that invested in improving education and public health could match Poland’s growth.

Russia could get the foreign investment to finish modernizing its economy. They had the growth and investment from 1999-2008.

Russia needs to fix its crime and corruption problems.

Russia needs to fix itself up and improve its economy by making itself as useful as possible to China, India, ASEAN and Europe. There is high growth around Russia. A peaceful, clean Russia could have a lot of tourism and could participate in the economic growth around it.

Russia needs more babies and immigration more than it needs military equipment.

114 thoughts on “Russia is weak and has a rapidly aging and shrinking population”

  5. This article is DEFINITELY fake news folks. Russia and Russians are doing fine.

    I am surprised this site publishes ridiculous articles like this.

  8. The Democrats have practically openly declared their total hatred for White People…so what planet are you on?

  11. Atlanta Fed’s GPNOW is projecting the third quarter to hit 5% growth all on it is own. That means we are on track for 3% growth or higher for this year. A year from today, easily 4% GDP year. Probably higher. But you lie about not being Matteo Martini and Tom Perkins, so….

  12. The Democrats have practically openly declared their total hatred for White People…so what planet are you on?

  15. Atlanta Fed’s GPNOW is projecting the third quarter to hit 5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} growth all on it is own. That means we are on track for 3{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} growth or higher for this year. A year from today easily 4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} GDP year. Probably higher. But you lie about not being Matteo Martini and Tom Perkins so….

  16. LOL what? Not competing with Space X? Why compete when you’ve perfected it 40 years ago (Soyuz)? For more than 5 years the Soyuz has been the primary means of launch for both the US and Russia to the ISS. T-14 and SU-57 were the same as the US Comanche and F-22. Cancelled but proven projects. Not because the US lacks money but because it has similar platforms that can complete the same missions as those two pieces of hardware (Apache Longbow and F-35). The SU-57 only brings minor benefits compared to the Su-35M and the T-14 only offers gimmicks compared to the T-90M For a website that talks about artificial intelligence you’d think common sense would be applied…. How did I even find this place?

  17. US doesn’t need to grab that which it controls indirectly anyway. Canada is this invisible 51st star on the US flag. Well, visible to everyone else but Canadians, that is.

  18. LOL what? Not competing with Space X? Why compete when you’ve perfected it 40 years ago (Soyuz)? For more than 5 years the Soyuz has been the primary means of launch for both the US and Russia to the ISS.T-14 and SU-57 were the same as the US Comanche and F-22. Cancelled but proven projects. Not because the US lacks money but because it has similar platforms that can complete the same missions as those two pieces of hardware (Apache Longbow and F-35). The SU-57 only brings minor benefits compared to the Su-35M and the T-14 only offers gimmicks compared to the T-90MFor a website that talks about artificial intelligence you’d think common sense would be applied…. How did I even find this place?

  19. US doesn’t need to grab that which it controls indirectly anyway.Canada is this invisible 51st star on the US flag. Well visible to everyone else but Canadians that is.

  20. Russia lacks 1. Rule of law and independent courts 2. Sound currency 3. Personal security 4. Property rights 5. Democracy 6. Ethics

  21. Russia lacks1. Rule of law and independent courts2. Sound currency3. Personal security 4. Property rights5. Democracy6. Ethics

  22. And here in the US, we don’t care what kind of “descent” people are from.” (recovering from laughter) Sorry, you lost me there…

  23. And here in the US” we don’t care what kind of “”descent”””” people are from.””””(recovering from laughter) Sorry”””” you lost me there…”””

  25. Russia lacks
    1. Rule of law and independent courts
    2. Sound currency
    3. Personal security
    4. Property rights
    5. Democracy
    6. Ethics

  26. LOL what? Not competing with Space X? Why compete when you’ve perfected it 40 years ago (Soyuz)? For more than 5 years the Soyuz has been the primary means of launch for both the US and Russia to the ISS.

    T-14 and SU-57 were the same as the US Comanche and F-22. Cancelled but proven projects. Not because the US lacks money but because it has similar platforms that can complete the same missions as those two pieces of hardware (Apache Longbow and F-35). The SU-57 only brings minor benefits compared to the Su-35M and the T-14 only offers gimmicks compared to the T-90M

    For a website that talks about artificial intelligence you’d think common sense would be applied….

    How did I even find this place?

  27. US doesn’t need to grab that which it controls indirectly anyway.

    Canada is this invisible 51st star on the US flag. Well, visible to everyone else but Canadians, that is.

  31. Atlanta Fed’s GPNOW is projecting the third quarter to hit 5% growth all on it is own.

    That means we are on track for 3% growth or higher for this year. A year from today, easily 4% GDP year. Probably higher.

    But you lie about not being Matteo Martini and Tom Perkins, so….

  34. if only the people of overpopulated countries would responcibilise themselves a quote from Patrick Severant .a famous homosexual tv dance
    presentator

  35. Uh!?
    What myth? The truth that Vietcongs have spanked US troops bottom really bad?
    This is writte in every history book, my friend.
    By the way, I would not be so proud to have been part of a coward army which murdered children in Vietnam, I would rather be ashamed and feel guilty about it

  36. Yes, but is it FACTUAL? To a large degree, yes.
    Unpleasant to some, particularly those on the liberal
    left who had high hopes for the USSR and their “Uncle
    Joe.”

  37. Nor is Ukraine a part of Russia.
    I wonder how much of this decline is due to Marxism? Certainly the ideology effected
    the Russian people. This can be seen in comparing East vs West Germans and their
    attitudes towards work, business, religion and entrepreneurship. This would have
    happened more so in Russia.

  40. In today’s “false news” environment, metrics without citing a source reference are questionable at best. See Bureau of Economic Analysis report from the U.S. Department of Commerce for reliable data on economic growth.

  46. False.
    It is just one quarter with 4%+ growth not the average
    Under Obama there had been growth of 4%+ in a few quarters but the average was about 1.5%
    With trump it will be the same if not worse

  50. The point of America’s wars was to keep Vietnam and Korea from becoming the USSR. Too bad we only managed to save South Korea, which is now an economic powerhouse with a GDP larger than Russia. And here in the US, we don’t care what kind of “descent” people are from.

  53. Who wants to make peace with Putin’s Russia? When Russia will change to a Democratic country it will find ways to make peace with the West meanwhile NATO/US is there to make sure Russia is within its own borders and on good behavior..

  57. No, Mr-Tail-Who-Wags-Dog. The US had a long history before NATO, and it will have a long history after NATO’s dissolution. Trying to convert some other country into your vassal to fight your wars for you simply isn’t a viable plan. Come up with your own plan to make peace with the Russians, rather than imagining you can shanghai someone else into fighting your battles for you. Your battles are your own to fight, and nobody else’s.

  62. Russia is the country of yesterday.
    I went to the Broadway musical Anastasia today and the line in one of the songs was “Russia is the country of yesterday”…. I totally agree.

  68. US is NATO and NATO is US no matter what Trump said. Trump says one thing in order to get a result. Destruction of NATO will never be allowed even if Trump wanted it. If he makes one more step towards Russia he will be called a tratior and impinched.

  69. The article pretty much listed the cold facts of life about the Putin’s Russia. Which of those facts do you disagree with exactly? US population is not white so why do you want to single them out?

  70. That is not what he said. But US will likely grow at about 3.5% for 3 years or more and in doing so it will add GDP of over the size of Russian economy.

  72. I always hear the Atlanticist lobby claiming China will seize the Russian far east, but I don’t buy it any more than the US marching into Canada to grab its easy pickings.

  73. And all the extraterritorialists have to do to stampede everyone into their arms, is wave the Russia bogeyman card around. At least they think everyone is dumb enough to fall for their crap – as if nobody else has anything better to do with their lives than revolve around their manias.

  74. Yeah, I do think you need 50 million more Einsteins – though you’d rather import more breeders to swell the ranks of the Welfare State Addicts. The Einsteins will always be outbred by the Welfare Queens anyway, so you need millions more Einsteins just to stay even.

  75. Boring. Georgia’s the one that tried to launch a sneak attack, and got creamed for it. Ukraine got hit with a coup, and nobody seems to want to look at where that coup came from. The Assads of Syria have been in power for 70 years, and yet Empress Hillary & Co thought they could roll them like Qaddafi, by fostering a revolution. It was always obvious that any change of power in Iraq or Syria would be messy, given the ruling minority establishments in both of those countries. Only dumbass Americans don’t seem to notice the obvious, much less acknowledge it.

  76. It’s the crooked neo-McCarthyist Cold War lobby who are going to be thrown out of the US long before Putin’s term ends in Russia. The Coalition of Special Interests which calls itself the American Left are now riding the tiger, desperate to reassert power through their embeds in America’s media and bureaucracy, trying to get Trump impeached even while triggering every possible identity politics group to throw up chaos. The bottom line is that Trump is totally right that NATO is taking Americans for a ride, after having outlived its usefulness. It’s Trump who’s recharging America’s overburdened and underserved citizens, replenishing their 401K’s and creating an abundance of jobs for people of all walks of life, including the working poor.

    Nobody cares about your stupid jihad against Russia – if you still want to go fight them, pick up a rifle and swim over there.

  78. The ICBM makes sense, if you look at Russian nuclear weapons you see an mess. Makes way more sense to standardize then you have 3000 missiles you will never use, that is if you think long term.

  80. Only good news is that the muslim birth rates is also crashing.
    Yes its the good news, the bad is that this is standard for all places Middle east South America, Asia, Africa is 20 years behind on the trend.
    So yes you want robotic and radical life extension very hard. Pointed ears is part of the deal then you wait past 50 for kids (cloves, tail and horns was downvoted 🙁 )
    Other option is the last bid for immigrants, EU take East Europe, then its south east asia and africa, the looser are left with somailes and other junk they have to enslave and break.

  86. Bizarrely smug article with no justification. America has killed millions in pointless wars from Vietnam on, but you call Russia a weak troublemaker, more or less. Who’s calling the kettle black here? The hypocrisy is thicker than porridge, seems to lack conscience. Also people of European descent in the U.S. are also close to dying faster than being born, are you smug about that too?

  87. Actually I recall a report from the American Enterprise Institute that by 2022, the labor force growth of both the US and China would be equal. And to compare this year’s actual growth rate of the two countries (4.6% US projected, v. 2.6% China to reflect changes in consumption, imports, and electricity demand) and the effective forced labor of Uighur concentration camps (er, reeducation) comprising 10% of that province’s ethnic population, things are not looking good for China.

  88. Is this to laugh at, or what? What does this wonderful Russian paradise need with Syria, a ruin largely of its creation, other than to antagonize Israel, avenge the loss of Afghanistan by killing US troops there, and milk Iran to the last man and last petrodollar on an endless war to dominate the fertile crescent and build a bomb?

  89. Consider even more trouble for Putin, especially as he is President/PM for life with a probable 10-15 yrs to make more trouble.

    Ethnographically, Russia is increasingly muslim, with muslim live births likely to exceed orthodox within 25 years. And by no means does this reflect on the “highly educated” nature of Russians: The army is already under stress, which explains the ironic reliance on Chechens in Syria to constitute a force to simultaneously represent and oppose Syria by way of assaulting American forces.

    There are no figures of emigration, nor of capital flight, but this is huge. And Ukraine which once registered a population of 52 mil is probably now at 45 mil, thanks largely to an imploding birthrate that is among the worst in the world.

    Russia is more reliant on oil for export income as a proportion of GDP than Mexico. Not even Nordstream and other gas will take up the slack. So picture what a free Venezuela, a free Iran, and a free Iraq (free of al-Quds forces, that is) will do to shove Russia under the bus.

  90. He won’t give up the power for the foreseeable future, we will have plenty ot time to see.
    In the last 18 years, however, Russia economy has declined under almost any metric. So much for the great lider…
    I don’t think Putin have any chance or capability to heal russian economy. Nor the motivation to do so.

  91. You can ague that… it’s not crazy… but their biggest real threat is to the East. China has ten times their population and frankly taking over Siberia would probably make sense, especially as the climate warms and makes it more hospitable and makes China less so.

  93. I am glad to see an article that is realistic about Russia. Russia is a relatively small country with a even smaller economy. Its population isn’t growing and neither is its economy.

  96. Not all Hispanics are Mexicans. And we don’t need 50 million Einsteins. We need people who can march and pull triggers. We are 1/3 of China’s population and the productivity of the Chinese is growing by leads and bounds. We need people if we want to stay #1.

  97. The U.S. main geo-politcial goal is to keep a hegemon from developing on the Eurasian land mass that could compete for power. So, the U.S. will do what ever it takes to further that goal. That means it will help Russia when its down and contain it when its not. Same for China. Very Machiavellian.

  100. Brian Wang, you are Neocon propagandist.

    Russia Putin on his last election platform promised a radical shift into domestic investment and world trade. It’s Russia version of China rise. This is possible because Russia is confident of its total security in the coming decades due to invention of new weapon systems and their deployment under new doctrine which cannot be challenged, less defeated by NATO. Russia, like China, does not have or want to have a global military empire like the U.S. does, and cost it trillions of dollars to sustain. Both are happy to see the vast American military empire continue, as long as its useless against them and their allies. (It already won in Syria and call the shots in Middle East. Pentagon dare not touch Iran due to Russia.) As long as U.S. is obliged by its military complex to conduct a foreign policy of aggression, sanction and war. This empire of course will eventually bankrupt the U.S.. Its policy of aggression around the world render it in isolation. Both are good for China and Russia. And Putin certainly don’t mind being used as toy in the American political civil war.

    Russia under Putin last term will focus on massive domestic development and leverage this development to build word trade. It mirrors closely to that of China. Both will be done outside of the American dollar system, outside of its technologies, outside of its trade, and resistant to all American sanctions.

    Trump today struggle to deal with a China as world power. He and all Americans, saturated by stupid propaganda like yours, do not know a second mini China is coming north of it. One that that the size of 11 time zones, infinite natural resources, at peace with itself, led by a leadership proven far greater than any the west had the past half a century. And untouchable by any western empires.

  101. Russian incursions into Syria, Georgia, Crimea, and the Ukraine, plus their burgeoning ICBM program and renewed incursions into European and US airspace, shows the Putin thinks he has a strong hand rather than a weak one. Demographics and economics may point to long term problems, but the idea that the Russians can be dismissed as a global actor seems misplaced.

  102. so is Japan, Western Europe and the USA. The USA is replacing old White folks with Mexicans and muslims. A real loser idea. USA have over 50 million Mexicans now. probably over 6 million muslims.

  104. I would like to think that either:
    A). Russia would sooner nuke those provinces than lose them to the Chinese
    B). The U.S. would come to Russia’s aid should China attempt a military annexation of said provinces… not necessarily out of benevolence but more likely because it would give the U.S. an excuse to steamroll the Chinese.

  105. But! But! Trump!

    Russia is the most powerful SUPER enemy the US now has! And Trump is in league with it!

    In truth, the Dems were in league with the Russians to try to steal the election with phony dossiers, etc and the Russians are not a threat to the US. For weak Europe, maybe. But not the US.

  107. This is why Russia has to use what it has now to get more secure borders for when it won’t be able anymore to field large enough armies to protect itself.

    The old Soviet Union borders were more secure for less land involved (at the borders) than Russia is today despite being smaller. It is all about geography.

    If Russia doesn’t do this, they are dead. Like the Dilgar in Babylon 5.

  108. Re: fixing corruption.
    I’m intending to find & read ‘The Dictator’s Handbook’.
    From what I have heard it is about how what is good for the country is often not what will keep the leader in power.

  109. Good luck finding reliable metrics, but the country is also impeded by high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome and other developmental defects caused by exposure to pollutants and poor public health practices.

  110. 561,000 STEM graduates in Russia in 2016. The US only had 568,000 with more than double the population.

    Life expectancy has come back up 64.7 years. They must have run low on Vodka.

  111. The US needs to let in a couple million of those well educated Russians. Though, please let them know, deodorant is not optional and drunk driving is not cute.

  113. It’s a shame but true. This could also create a problem for them with China in the long term. The Chinese government likes to talk about the century of shame, and Russia did peel off what China calls its “lost provinces” by the Amur. Russia and China may be closer now so this type of problem won’t happen in the short term, but long term it could when the Chinese government decides it no longer needs the Russians just their resources.

  114. Longtime poster ALFIN has been telling us for the last 2 years that Russia was running out of trained engineers. And, the last true numbers to ‘escape’ from the Russian health service say that Russian men have a lifespan of approximately 58 years old. So, the last trained Soviet technicians are dying off.

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