Surge in Air Conditioning needs to be as efficient as possible

There is a surge in the global installation of air conditioners.

In the 1990s, China had very few air conditioners but now there is almost one air conditioner per household. India and Indonesia are tracking China’s installation levels and rates. By the 2030s, India and Indonesia will be at China’s air conditioning level.

Saudi Arabia is rapidly installing air conditioners. If increases in installation and usage continue than Saudi Arabia will use more energy to run air conditions in 2030 than is now exported as oil.

90% of households in America and Japan have air conditioning. 8% of the 3 billion people in the tropics have air conditioners.

GDP falls by 1% for each degree above 26 degrees celsius in the Caribbean and Central America.

Without additional air-conditioning there would be an extra 250,000 extra deaths per year from heat waves by 2050.

If HFCs were phased out and all air conditioners were the most efficient available then 500 gigawatts of power would be saved by 2030.

In China, this would save as much eight Three Gorges dams in power.

Even with the efficiency, the cost of all of the air-conditioning units and the energy will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Geoengineering and localized climate geo-mitigation would be more cost efficient to blunt the climate effects.

The Urban heat islands effect occur when cities replace natural land cover with dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat. This effect increases energy costs (e.g., for air conditioning), air pollution levels, and heat-related illness and mortality.

To reduce the urban heat island effect:

* Build green infrastructure improvements into regular street upgrades and capital improvement projects to ensure continued investment in heat-reducing practices throughout your community.
* Plant trees and other vegetation—Space in urban areas might be limited, but you can easily integrate small green infrastructure practices into grassy or barren areas, vacant lots, and street rights-of-way.
* Build green roofs—Green roofs are an ideal heat island reduction strategy, providing both direct and ambient cooling effects. In addition, green roofs improve air quality by reducing the heat island effect and absorbing pollutants

54 thoughts on “Surge in Air Conditioning needs to be as efficient as possible”

  1. Sounds good! Urban green spaces and air conditioner in every squatter’s shack. People will work and stay productive just to stay cool, because being comfortable is like a highly addictive drug… We are going to need tons and tons of nuclear power – no doubt about it! A massive nuclear build-out is coming once the hot tropical world comes online. I might be retired or even dead, but it is coming greentards! All the PV and wind in the world ain’t gonna be nearly enough to run them condensers. Hahahaha!

  2. Sounds good! Urban green spaces and air conditioner in every squatter’s shack. People will work and stay productive just to stay cool because being comfortable is like a highly addictive drug… We are going to need tons and tons of nuclear power – no doubt about it! A massive nuclear build-out is coming once the hot tropical world comes online. I might be retired or even dead but it is coming greentards! All the PV and wind in the world ain’t gonna be nearly enough to run them condensers. Hahahaha!

  3. You will come up way short using heat engines vs PV solar. Also, roofs could not handle massive solar water heaters. That means cutting a lot more forest to strengthen the roofs for a system that will work very poorly. I don’t have anything against solar water heaters for ordinary water needs. But PV is just much better for generating electricity.

  4. Yes… I’m the First Goat giving you ⊕1 My personal “peeve” is to drive by house-after-house in the tony hillside area I live, looking at most huge ranch-house roofs … having nothing … and the ones that have “solar” (maybe 15%) have NO co-generation of hot water. Its ridiculous. A solar panel only converts 14% to 18% of the incipient sunlight to electrical energy. The 86% to 82% not-converted becomes “heat”. Which is lost to the air. Indeed: even conversion efficiency drops on hot days as the PV cells become ever less efficient when hot. Thing is, the PV solar industry has become like the “mow and blow” suburban army of independent Hispanics (in California). The “consultants” smarmy tactics include fancy-schmancy “analysis” of a homeowner’s power bills, their roof area, the angles of roofs and position of possibly shading trees and shrubs; the homeowner is presented with a thick “custom analysis”, detailing every last supposition, and shown that for ONLY $15,285 (⊕ cost of upkeep), they can have a solar system that’ll save half their monthly electric bill. And no-down-payment financing. The consumer signs the dotted line; within a few weeks, in comes the “mow and blow” team of installers. The industry is now benefitting (and dependent) on rapid-installation fittings, racks, snap-lock power collecting cables; the whole system can be up and running in less than 8 hours, with no more than 3 people working the gig. I point that out because the “8 hr × 3 men” installation window has no room for solar heat “co-generation” panels, and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted solar HEAT as hot water. That “is complicated” compared to the mow-and-blow electrical installation process. Kind of sad. Because if one installs an 8 kW system, there’s probably in excess of 33 kW of heat-energy that the very same panels are catching… and wasting. To put perspective on that, 33 kW in one “solar day” (about 6.5 full-sun hours equivalent, in the Bay Area),

  5. Use solar power! Here is where it makes most sense to use solar. You get collectors that provide warm water year round, but in heatwave you can use the excess heat to power heat engines which would drive air conditioning equipment.

  6. Air conditioning and pv have a pretty good overlap especially if you make a bit of ice for the evening (or some more elegant phase change medium). Cost is a concern but perhaps less so in hot high sun areas.

  7. The article implies HFCs should be replaced, but with what? I’d guess hydrocarbons, like propane should be used as refrigerants. The EPA prohibits them for noncommercial applications in the US. In areas with low summer humidity, evaporative cooling can replace vapor compression heat pumps, but not in climates like the American southeast.

  8. You will come up way short using heat engines vs PV solar. Also roofs could not handle massive solar water heaters. That means cutting a lot more forest to strengthen the roofs for a system that will work very poorly.I don’t have anything against solar water heaters for ordinary water needs. But PV is just much better for generating electricity.

  9. Yes… I’m the First Goat giving you ⊕1 My personal peeve”” is to drive by house-after-house in the tony hillside area I live”””” looking at most huge ranch-house roofs … having nothing … and the ones that have “”””solar”””” (maybe 15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}) have NO co-generation of hot water. Its ridiculous. A solar panel only converts 14{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to 18{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the incipient sunlight to electrical energy. The 86{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to 82{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} not-converted becomes “”””heat””””. Which is lost to the air. Indeed: even conversion efficiency drops on hot days as the PV cells become ever less efficient when hot. Thing is”””” the PV solar industry has become like the “”””mow and blow”””” suburban army of independent Hispanics (in California). The “”””consultants”””” smarmy tactics include fancy-schmancy “”””analysis”””” of a homeowner’s power bills”” their roof area”” the angles of roofs and position of possibly shading trees and shrubs; the homeowner is presented with a thick “”””custom analysis”””””” detailing every last supposition and shown that for ONLY $15285 (⊕ cost of upkeep) they can have a solar system that’ll save half their monthly electric bill. And no-down-payment financing. The consumer signs the dotted line; within a few weeks”” in comes the “”””mow and blow”””” team of installers. The industry is now benefitting (and dependent) on rapid-installation fittings”” racks snap-lock power collecting cables; the whole system can be up and running in less than 8 hours”” with no more than 3 people working the gig. I point that out because the “”””8 hr × 3 men”””” installation window has no room for solar heat “”””co-generation”””” panels”””” and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted sola”

  10. Use solar power!Here is where it makes most sense to use solar. You get collectors that provide warm water year round but in heatwave you can use the excess heat to power heat engines which would drive air conditioning equipment.

  11. Air conditioning and pv have a pretty good overlap especially if you make a bit of ice for the evening (or some more elegant phase change medium). Cost is a concern but perhaps less so in hot high sun areas.

  12. The article implies HFCs should be replaced but with what? I’d guess hydrocarbons like propane should be used as refrigerants. The EPA prohibits them for noncommercial applications in the US.In areas with low summer humidity evaporative cooling can replace vapor compression heat pumps but not in climates like the American southeast.

  13. Then… there’s my reply. PV + heating. I think there are some darn-good arguments for it. Just have to solve the system-eventually-leaks-causing-homeowner-misery issues. (Same actually for PV: causing eventual roof leaks). You are right regarding heat engines: the temperature differential between hot-water (or hot-side) vs. cold side isn’t enough to deliver appreciable power. The wood argument is kind of sterile: plenty of wood grows with decent forest management. Plenty. It is a truly RENEWABLE resource, wood is. My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive, tough, environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites + silicon. 28%+ conversion. If coupled to a closed-loop solar water preheating system (fluorinated oil circulant), electrolysis degradation of the system drops to zero and the use of modern “Big Plastic” tankage, styrofoam insulated, can capture a LOT of heat over the course of the day. Even in winter in the Frozen North, one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing, just don’t capture heat in Winter. Not enough of it to make a difference. Natural gas is plentiful, cheap, ubiquitous in many areas. FOR instance: in our domestic situation, we have 5 people living at the house. Between showers, dishwashers, washing machines, gas dryer, kitchen uses, and in-house lighting, 4 refrigerators, gas stove, electric ovens, our natural gas bill is $38/mo. Our electricity bill is over $300/mo. And we haven’t even yet turned on the air conditioner. So… needless to say… we are actively looking to self-install Solar PV. I’m a decent enough electrical engineer to be confident to “do it right the first time”. And being the Handyman of the House, the painter, roofer, plumber, repairman, fixer of things … and the modularity of new PV systems, I hardly think “pros” are needed. I priced out an all-i

  14. Leaks, plumbing, maintenance” Yup. Still though, you really are from california if you’re talking about scavenging solar power for hot water. What are we camping? i can’t even begin to tell you the pain in the a** hot water heating would be on my roof, but i can tell you it will be frozen useless 3 months a year and maybe a bone chilling 60F fo 3 other months. in the tropics where this would work well all year round you actually want cool water like the shower i took tonight in manila with tap water.

  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a5NyUITbyk&t=31s is an interesting TED talk on a way to cool things with less energy usage. I hope it actually turns out to be practical. One thing I noted is that this uses hafnium, a not particularly common element, but if this is a few atoms thick coating on a cheap metal like steel or aluminum, it would probably scale up to most roofs in the hotter parts of the world.

  16. Then… there’s my reply. PV + heating. I think there are some darn-good arguments for it. Just have to solve the system-eventually-leaks-causing-homeowner-misery issues. (Same actually for PV: causing eventual roof leaks).You are right regarding heat engines: the temperature differential between hot-water (or hot-side) vs. cold side isn’t enough to deliver appreciable power. The wood argument is kind of sterile: plenty of wood grows with decent forest management. Plenty. It is a truly RENEWABLE resource wood is. My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive tough environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites + silicon. 28{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}+ conversion. If coupled to a closed-loop solar water preheating system (fluorinated oil circulant) electrolysis degradation of the system drops to zero and the use of modern Big Plastic”” tankage”” styrofoam insulated can capture a LOT of heat over the course of the day. Even in winter in the Frozen North one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing just don’t capture heat in Winter. Not enough of it to make a difference. Natural gas is plentiful cheap ubiquitous in many areas. FOR instance: in our domestic situation we have 5 people living at the house. Between showers dishwashers washing machines gas dryer kitchen uses and in-house lighting 4 refrigerators gas stove electric ovens”” our natural gas bill is $38/mo. Our electricity bill is over $300/mo. And we haven’t even yet turned on the air conditioner. So… needless to say… we are actively looking to self-install Solar PV. I’m a decent enough electrical engineer to be confident to “”””do it right the first time””””. And being the Handyman of the House”” the painter roofer plumber repairman fixer of things … and the modularity of new PV s”

  17. Leaks plumbing” maintenance””Yup.Still though”” you really are from california if you’re talking about scavenging solar power for hot water. What are we camping?i can’t even begin to tell you the pain in the a** hot water heating would be on my roof”” but i can tell you it will be frozen useless 3 months a year and maybe a bone chilling 60F fo 3 other months. in the tropics where this would work well all year round you actually want cool water like the shower i took tonight in manila with tap water.”””

  18. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a5NyUITbyk&t=31sis an interesting TED talk on a way to cool things with less energy usage. I hope it actually turns out to be practical. One thing I noted is that this uses hafnium a not particularly common element but if this is a few atoms thick coating on a cheap metal like steel or aluminum it would probably scale up to most roofs in the hotter parts of the world.

  19. Search How we can turn the cold of outer space into a renewable resource | Aaswath Raman to find the TED talk I mentioned. Can we *please* get a comment system that will allow links to relevant webpages???

  20. SearchHow we can turn the cold of outer space into a renewable resource | Aaswath Ramanto find the TED talk I mentioned.Can we *please* get a comment system that will allow links to relevant webpages???

  21. My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive, tough, environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites silicon. 28% conversion. ” I have the impression that PV needs decades at least to be viable against more economic power generation such as nuclear (not counting the idiocy overhead that it currently has most places). Especially if you calculate in the need for storage. You don’t only need daily storage but eventually storage to bridge the gap between seasonal changes in solar energy and electricity requirements. (Of course feeding back to the grid is not a solution at all, the problem and losses are just shifted to burden the power company, which is not maintainable with significant home solar PV penetration.) “Even in winter in the Frozen North, one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing, just don’t capture heat in Winter.” How about plain water, with anti-freez additives? (Though I’m not sure if water would even cool down enough to freeze in the winter in an active system even in Siberia)

  22. The wood is a non issue. Near everyone has tiled roofs here. And addition of solar collectors would be of little significance. (Not that it’s mandatory to use the roof.) Heat engines is more of a secondary gain.You would have enough power to circulate/compress coolant for air-conditioning (especially when you need it most in heatwave), without wasting electricity supply. You could still use the hot water after. The main purpose as always would be to provide warm water or heating if you have enough capacity installed. You’d just have a better usage of solar energy. ” But PV is just much better for generating electricity.” Better, but not good in its present state. (and for the foreseeable future).

  23. I point that out because the “8 hr × 3 men” installation window has no room for solar heat “co-generation” panels, and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted solar HEAT as hot water.” “But … leaks … plumbing … maintenance … is too much for most tony hillside home owners. Just give ’em the electricity. ” Why are these problems present for you? We have pipes in our house for heating. It wasn’t installed while building the house it was done years after living it it. The pipes were pretty much installed and soldered together in a day or two, with pump, furnace, radiators and whatnot some 15 or so years ago. No leaks whatsoever, no maintenance required for the piping. So I don’t understand where your issues come from.

  24. You got a ⊕1 point from me. “To drive all them condensers”. I agree: IF WE BELIEVE that the projections for net world GDP “wealth” — in 2010 normalized numbers (just saying) — is going to exceed $100,000 billion for China alone, and another $400,000 billion for the world (compared respectively to today: China is at 11.8 trillion of the world’s 79.2 trillion (about 15%) Some projections show China at $100 trillion or more. $123 tril was one of the numbers floated either in a comment or an article here, by what, 2030? Something like that. What I find preposterous is that these projections of China’s unstopped, unstoppable and graphed growth are very MALTHUSIAN: “by the year ( +300 years ), we’ll be more numerous than the sands of the beach.” … Bongwater. If — somehow — China were … just by itself … to continue growing to dominate the largest plausible 3rd or 4th order limit differential of possible growth over the next 22 years, it is VERY unlikely that she’d take over 33% of the total world economy all by itself. Very. Ultimately, dear Old China suffers from a very real problem: or perhaps 3 of them. • The poverty of the narrative • The insouciance of The Public • The limit of fiat value. Each of these is a coffin nail for unbridled economic growth. Taken together, and they guarantee that Old China’s absolutely stunning experiment with government directed pseudo-capitalism will come to an end. No, not necessarily a crashing end, and no not necessarily as a implosive or even militarily self-immolating end. But and end, as sure as the fading of last year’s Christmas Tree. Just saying. Malthus was a fine ol’ Coot. But ultimately wrong. GoatGuy

  25. My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive tough” environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites silicon. 28{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} conversion. “”I have the impression that PV needs decades at least to be viable against more economic power generation such as nuclear (not counting the idiocy overhead that it currently has most places). Especially if you calculate in the need for storage. You don’t only need daily storage but eventually storage to bridge the gap between seasonal changes in solar energy and electricity requirements.(Of course feeding back to the grid is not a solution at all”” the problem and losses are just shifted to burden the power company”” which is not maintainable with significant home solar PV penetration.)””””Even in winter in the Frozen North”” one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing”” just don’t capture heat in Winter.””””How about plain water”””” with anti-freez additives? (Though I’m not sure if water would even cool down enough to freeze in the winter in an active system even in Siberia)”””””””

  26. The wood is a non issue. Near everyone has tiled roofs here. And addition of solar collectors would be of little significance. (Not that it’s mandatory to use the roof.)Heat engines is more of a secondary gain.You would have enough power to circulate/compress coolant for air-conditioning (especially when you need it most in heatwave) without wasting electricity supply. You could still use the hot water after.The main purpose as always would be to provide warm water or heating if you have enough capacity installed. You’d just have a better usage of solar energy. But PV is just much better for generating electricity.””Better”””” but not good in its present state. (and for the foreseeable future).”””

  27. I point that out because the “”8 hr × 3 men”””” installation window has no room for solar heat “”””co-generation”””” panels”””” and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted solar HEAT as hot water.””””””””But … leaks … plumbing … maintenance … is too much for most tony hillside home owners. Just give ’em the electricity. “”””Why are these problems present for you? We have pipes in our house for heating. It wasn’t installed while building the house it was done years after living it it. The pipes were pretty much installed and soldered together in a day or two”” with pump furnace radiators and whatnot some 15 or so years ago. No leaks whatsoever”” no maintenance required for the piping. So I don’t understand where your issues come from.”””””””

  28. You got a ⊕1 point from me. To drive all them condensers””. I agree: IF WE BELIEVE that the projections for net world GDP “”””wealth”””” — in 2010 normalized numbers (just saying) — is going to exceed $100″”000 billion for China alone and another $400000 billion for the world (compared respectively to today: China is at 11.8 trillion of the world’s 79.2 trillion (about 15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12})Some projections show China at $100 trillion or more. $123 tril was one of the numbers floated either in a comment or an article here by what 2030? Something like that. What I find preposterous is that these projections of China’s unstopped”” unstoppable and graphed growth are very MALTHUSIAN: “”””by the year ( +300 years )”””” we’ll be more numerous than the sands of the beach.”””” … Bongwater. If — somehow — China were … just by itself … to continue growing to dominate the largest plausible 3rd or 4th order limit differential of possible growth over the next 22 years”” it is VERY unlikely that she’d take over 33{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the total world economy all by itself. Very.Ultimately dear Old China suffers from a very real problem: or perhaps 3 of them. • The poverty of the narrative• The insouciance of The Public• The limit of fiat value.Each of these is a coffin nail for unbridled economic growth. Taken together and they guarantee that Old China’s absolutely stunning experiment with government directed pseudo-capitalism will come to an end. No not necessarily a crashing end and no not necessarily as a implosive or even militarily self-immolating end. But and end”” as sure as the fading of last year’s Christmas Tree. Just saying.Malthus was a fine ol’ Coot. But ultimately wrong.GoatGuy”””””””

  29. Hydrocarbon refrigerants would definitely help out, less power to run, and easier on the equipment since the pressures are lower. So. Why does the EPA prohibit them from being used? Meanwhile, go to your favorite store and pick up a can of compressed “air” to blow off your keyboard. If you read the label on the compressed “air”, you will find that it is actually refrigerant. Probably a waste product.

  30. Hydrocarbon refrigerants would definitely help out less power to run and easier on the equipment since the pressures are lower. So. Why does the EPA prohibit them from being used? Meanwhile go to your favorite store and pick up a can of compressed air”” to blow off your keyboard. If you read the label on the compressed “”””air”””””””” you will find that it is actually refrigerant. Probably a waste product.”””

  31. Hydrocarbon refrigerants would definitely help out, less power to run, and easier on the equipment since the pressures are lower. So. Why does the EPA prohibit them from being used? Meanwhile, go to your favorite store and pick up a can of compressed “air” to blow off your keyboard. If you read the label on the compressed “air”, you will find that it is actually refrigerant. Probably a waste product.

  32. “My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive, tough, environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites silicon. 28% conversion. ”

    I have the impression that PV needs decades at least to be viable against more economic power generation such as nuclear (not counting the idiocy overhead that it currently has most places). Especially if you calculate in the need for storage. You don’t only need daily storage but eventually storage to bridge the gap between seasonal changes in solar energy and electricity requirements.

    (Of course feeding back to the grid is not a solution at all, the problem and losses are just shifted to burden the power company, which is not maintainable with significant home solar PV penetration.)

    “Even in winter in the Frozen North, one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing, just don’t capture heat in Winter.”

    How about plain water, with anti-freez additives? (Though I’m not sure if water would even cool down enough to freeze in the winter in an active system even in Siberia)

  33. The wood is a non issue. Near everyone has tiled roofs here. And addition of solar collectors would be of little significance. (Not that it’s mandatory to use the roof.)
    Heat engines is more of a secondary gain.You would have enough power to circulate/compress coolant for air-conditioning (especially when you need it most in heatwave), without wasting electricity supply. You could still use the hot water after.
    The main purpose as always would be to provide warm water or heating if you have enough capacity installed. You’d just have a better usage of solar energy.

    ” But PV is just much better for generating electricity.”

    Better, but not good in its present state. (and for the foreseeable future).

  34. “I point that out because the “8 hr × 3 men” installation window has no room for solar heat “co-generation” panels, and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted solar HEAT as hot water.”

    “But … leaks … plumbing … maintenance … is too much for most tony hillside home owners. Just give ’em the electricity. ”

    Why are these problems present for you? We have pipes in our house for heating. It wasn’t installed while building the house it was done years after living it it. The pipes were pretty much installed and soldered together in a day or two, with pump, furnace, radiators and whatnot some 15 or so years ago. No leaks whatsoever, no maintenance required for the piping. So I don’t understand where your issues come from.

  35. You got a ⊕1 point from me. “To drive all them condensers”. I agree: IF WE BELIEVE that the projections for net world GDP “wealth” — in 2010 normalized numbers (just saying) — is going to exceed $100,000 billion for China alone, and another $400,000 billion for the world (compared respectively to today: China is at 11.8 trillion of the world’s 79.2 trillion (about 15%)

    Some projections show China at $100 trillion or more. $123 tril was one of the numbers floated either in a comment or an article here, by what, 2030? Something like that.

    What I find preposterous is that these projections of China’s unstopped, unstoppable and graphed growth are very MALTHUSIAN: “by the year ( +300 years ), we’ll be more numerous than the sands of the beach.” … Bongwater.

    If — somehow — China were … just by itself … to continue growing to dominate the largest plausible 3rd or 4th order limit differential of possible growth over the next 22 years, it is VERY unlikely that she’d take over 33% of the total world economy all by itself. Very.

    Ultimately, dear Old China suffers from a very real problem: or perhaps 3 of them.

    • The poverty of the narrative
    • The insouciance of The Public
    • The limit of fiat value.

    Each of these is a coffin nail for unbridled economic growth. Taken together, and they guarantee that Old China’s absolutely stunning experiment with government directed pseudo-capitalism will come to an end. No, not necessarily a crashing end, and no not necessarily as a implosive or even militarily self-immolating end. But and end, as sure as the fading of last year’s Christmas Tree.

    Just saying.
    Malthus was a fine ol’ Coot.
    But ultimately wrong.

    GoatGuy

  36. Search
    How we can turn the cold of outer space into a renewable resource | Aaswath Raman
    to find the TED talk I mentioned.
    Can we *please* get a comment system that will allow links to relevant webpages???

  37. Then… there’s my reply. PV + heating. I think there are some darn-good arguments for it. Just have to solve the system-eventually-leaks-causing-homeowner-misery issues. (Same actually for PV: causing eventual roof leaks).

    You are right regarding heat engines: the temperature differential between hot-water (or hot-side) vs. cold side isn’t enough to deliver appreciable power. The wood argument is kind of sterile: plenty of wood grows with decent forest management. Plenty. It is a truly RENEWABLE resource, wood is.

    My long term hope is that the manufacture of inexpensive, tough, environmentally durable triple-layer PV will come along in the next half decade or so. Perovskites + silicon. 28%+ conversion. If coupled to a closed-loop solar water preheating system (fluorinated oil circulant), electrolysis degradation of the system drops to zero and the use of modern “Big Plastic” tankage, styrofoam insulated, can capture a LOT of heat over the course of the day.

    Even in winter in the Frozen North, one can reasonably expect to preheat water to over 80° F from near 32° F. Or since the heat-fluid is non-corrosive and non-freezing, just don’t capture heat in Winter. Not enough of it to make a difference. Natural gas is plentiful, cheap, ubiquitous in many areas.

    FOR instance: in our domestic situation, we have 5 people living at the house. Between showers, dishwashers, washing machines, gas dryer, kitchen uses, and in-house lighting, 4 refrigerators, gas stove, electric ovens, our natural gas bill is $38/mo. Our electricity bill is over $300/mo. And we haven’t even yet turned on the air conditioner.

    So… needless to say… we are actively looking to self-install Solar PV. I’m a decent enough electrical engineer to be confident to “do it right the first time”. And being the Handyman of the House, the painter, roofer, plumber, repairman, fixer of things … and the modularity of new PV systems, I hardly think “pros” are needed.

    I priced out an all-in 6.5 kW system using monocrystalline top-shelf panels, hardened inverters, load balancers (“optimizers”) and so forth, and the outlay with shipping is about $8,500. Given our location, I’m pretty confident that we’ll get about 6 hr/day of equivalent full-sun insolation. With commercial financing at 6%, 10 years, no balloon, 20% down … the “mortgage cost” of electricity will be about $3.20 a day, $100 a month. With time-of-day usage lifestyle adjustments, we’ll be able to use 80% or so of the generated power. Thus, our municipal power bill will come down to about $100/mo, giving a savings of about $100/mo.

    To me… that’s good. (And fun!)
    GiatGyt

  38. “Leaks, plumbing, maintenance”

    Yup.

    Still though, you really are from california if you’re talking about scavenging solar power for hot water. What are we camping?

    i can’t even begin to tell you the pain in the a** hot water heating would be on my roof, but i can tell you it will be frozen useless 3 months a year and maybe a bone chilling 60F fo 3 other months. in the tropics where this would work well all year round you actually want cool water like the shower i took tonight in manila with tap water.

  39. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a5NyUITbyk&t=31s
    is an interesting TED talk on a way to cool things with less energy usage. I hope it actually turns out to be practical. One thing I noted is that this uses hafnium, a not particularly common element, but if this is a few atoms thick coating on a cheap metal like steel or aluminum, it would probably scale up to most roofs in the hotter parts of the world.

  40. You will come up way short using heat engines vs PV solar. Also, roofs could not handle massive solar water heaters. That means cutting a lot more forest to strengthen the roofs for a system that will work very poorly.

    I don’t have anything against solar water heaters for ordinary water needs. But PV is just much better for generating electricity.

  41. Yes… I’m the First Goat giving you ⊕1

    My personal “peeve” is to drive by house-after-house in the tony hillside area I live, looking at most huge ranch-house roofs … having nothing … and the ones that have “solar” (maybe 15%) have NO co-generation of hot water. Its ridiculous. A solar panel only converts 14% to 18% of the incipient sunlight to electrical energy. The 86% to 82% not-converted becomes “heat”. Which is lost to the air. Indeed: even conversion efficiency drops on hot days as the PV cells become ever less efficient when hot.

    Thing is, the PV solar industry has become like the “mow and blow” suburban army of independent Hispanics (in California). The “consultants” smarmy tactics include fancy-schmancy “analysis” of a homeowner’s power bills, their roof area, the angles of roofs and position of possibly shading trees and shrubs; the homeowner is presented with a thick “custom analysis”, detailing every last supposition, and shown that for ONLY $15,285 (⊕ cost of upkeep), they can have a solar system that’ll save half their monthly electric bill. And no-down-payment financing.

    The consumer signs the dotted line; within a few weeks, in comes the “mow and blow” team of installers. The industry is now benefitting (and dependent) on rapid-installation fittings, racks, snap-lock power collecting cables; the whole system can be up and running in less than 8 hours, with no more than 3 people working the gig.

    I point that out because the “8 hr × 3 men” installation window has no room for solar heat “co-generation” panels, and making plumbing mods to trap the otherwise wasted solar HEAT as hot water. That “is complicated” compared to the mow-and-blow electrical installation process. Kind of sad. Because if one installs an 8 kW system, there’s probably in excess of 33 kW of heat-energy that the very same panels are catching… and wasting. To put perspective on that, 33 kW in one “solar day” (about 6.5 full-sun hours equivalent, in the Bay Area), 33 kW × 6.5 hr × 60 min/hr × 60 sec/min × 1,000 W/kW → 772 MEGAjoules of heat energy, wasted.

    At 1,055 J/BTU (worth remembering!), 730,000 BTU of heat energy. Conjuring that 1 BTU will heat 1 pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit, and that gallons are about 8.3 lbs., and that incoming tap-water is about 50° F and that “hot water” might be 135° F or ⊕85° F, then one could expect to heat over 1,000 gallons of water per day to “hot water” status!
    _______

    Back “in the ’70s”, we had a solar-thermal (heat only) hot water system. Until it developed hideous leaks, it was great. Had a 250 gallon insulated “preheated solar water” tank. Which fed a conventional hot water (gas) heater. Our fuel bills were ridiculously low. But … leaks … plumbing … maintenance … is too much for most tony hillside home owners. Just give ’em the electricity.

    GoatGuy

  42. Use solar power!

    Here is where it makes most sense to use solar. You get collectors that provide warm water year round, but in heatwave you can use the excess heat to power heat engines which would drive air conditioning equipment.

  43. Air conditioning and pv have a pretty good overlap especially if you make a bit of ice for the evening (or some more elegant phase change medium). Cost is a concern but perhaps less so in hot high sun areas.

  44. The article implies HFCs should be replaced, but with what? I’d guess hydrocarbons, like propane should be used as refrigerants. The EPA prohibits them for noncommercial applications in the US.
    In areas with low summer humidity, evaporative cooling can replace vapor compression heat pumps, but not in climates like the American southeast.

  45. Sounds good! Urban green spaces and air conditioner in every squatter’s shack. People will work and stay productive just to stay cool, because being comfortable is like a highly addictive drug… We are going to need tons and tons of nuclear power – no doubt about it! A massive nuclear build-out is coming once the hot tropical world comes online. I might be retired or even dead, but it is coming greentards! All the PV and wind in the world ain’t gonna be nearly enough to run them condensers. Hahahaha!

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