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Tesla can breakeven on $41,000 Model 3s now but targeting profitable $35,000 Model 3s by the end of 2018

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Elon Musk believes it could be possible to scale production at Tesla and lower their design and technology costs enough to be able to offer a truly mass-market electric vehicle priced as low as $25,000 within three years.

Recently analysts at UBS pulled apart three different electric cars to compare their technology and production costs: a new Tesla Model 3, a 2014 BMW i3 and a 2017 Chevy Bolt.

The engineers hired by UBS to examine a $49,000 2018 Model 3 were crazy about the powertrain. UBS analyst Colin Langan said engineers found Tesla Model 3’s have next generation, military-grade technology that is years ahead of competitors. The costs were higher than expected, and the cars would lose about $5,900 each at Tesla’s original plan to sell an entry model at $35,000. So currently Tesla can breakeven at $41,000.

Elon also wants to improve Tesla production to make two cars or more at once. This would allow production of the crossover Model Y, a Tesla pickup truck, the Semi tractor trailer, and the next generation of the Roadster.

The profit margin on more expensive Model 3 is estimated to be about 18%.

Elon Musk and Tesla are trying to make $35,000 Model 3’s profitable by the end of 2018.

A new Roadster will have almost double the batteries and go zero to 60 in 1.9 seconds

A new Roadster would have a 200 kilowatt-hours packs.

138 thoughts on “Tesla can breakeven on $41,000 Model 3s now but targeting profitable $35,000 Model 3s by the end of 2018”

  2. When another battery EV manufacturer posts battery life number like 200k miles and still at 85% of battery life, and most buyers of battery EV’s need to charge them quickly as opposed to overnight, then you might have a point. Porsche Taycan has nothing like the price point of any Tesla, it’s $90k. It is far from good enough to say there are car manufacturers who beat Tesla on one point or another, they need to be be all around competitors.

  3. They do not get “shut down”. Auto manufacturing (unlike say rocket manufacturing) is a mature industry with multiple well financed companies producing quality products. It is a capital heavy business where you take massive losses up front and see a return on investment years later. So Tesla always had a very hard climb ahead of it. Auto quality is hard. Mass production is hard. Companies are shut down when they go bankrupt not when a secret cabal shuts them down.

  4. Tesla is fast becoming a second rate player in the EV arena in terms of technology. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles, which cost $1000 each plus labor and are prone to failure (one buyer of a use Model S discovered that all four of the car’s door handles had been replaced). In terms of things Tesla fans have bragged about in the past (driving range, battery recharge rates, public charger network) Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms : Porsche Taycan (and others) ability to recharge twice as fast using the universal standard charging protocol that practically every other automaker (except Tesla) is using , the driving ranges of the Chevy Bolt – significantly greater than the base Model 3 and also greater than Tesla Model S cars costing twice as much, also the Volvo Polestar 2, with price matching the base Model 3 but a driving range greater than the $78,000 version of the Model 3. A CCS public fast charging network (350KW) being installed in this country by Porsche, VW and others and in Euope by IONITY and Euro automakers even before the appearance of cars that can take advantage of their ultra fast charging. Anyone claiming a technology lead by Tesla is simply cleuless about the state of the cmpetition.

  5. You watch, they will try to shut Elon Musk down. I don’t believe much in conspiracies but all previous competitors to existing automobile brands have been shut down.

  6. The larger point is, because they have about 3 quarters before they need any new funding, they can get this done by roughly March~April next year and still be in a good position to get that funding. Their battery prices will continue to fall, and their vehicles even without the tax credit will continue to be better and better deals over the lifetime of the vehicle than a similarly priced gasoline car so their worst problem will be they will still be unable to meet increasing demand. Good problem to have.

  9. When another battery EV manufacturer posts battery life number like 200k miles and still at 85{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of battery life and most buyers of battery EV’s need to charge them quickly as opposed to overnight then you might have a point. Porsche Taycan has nothing like the price point of any Tesla it’s $90k.It is far from good enough to say there are car manufacturers who beat Tesla on one point or another they need to be be all around competitors.

  10. They do not get shut down””. Auto manufacturing (unlike say rocket manufacturing) is a mature industry with multiple well financed companies producing quality products. It is a capital heavy business where you take massive losses up front and see a return on investment years later.So Tesla always had a very hard climb ahead of it. Auto quality is hard. Mass production is hard. Companies are shut down when they go bankrupt not when a secret cabal shuts them down.”””

  11. Tesla is fast becoming a second rate player in the EV arena in terms of technology. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles which cost $1000 each plus labor and are prone to failure (one buyer of a use Model S discovered that all four of the car’s door handles had been replaced). In terms of things Tesla fans have bragged about in the past (driving range battery recharge rates public charger network) Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms : Porsche Taycan (and others) ability to recharge twice as fast using the universal standard charging protocol that practically every other automaker (except Tesla) is using the driving ranges of the Chevy Bolt – significantly greater than the base Model 3 and also greater than Tesla Model S cars costing twice as much also the Volvo Polestar 2 with price matching the base Model 3 but a driving range greater than the $78000 version of the Model 3. A CCS public fast charging network (350KW) being installed in this country by Porsche VW and others and in Euope by IONITY and Euro automakers even before the appearance of cars that can take advantage of their ultra fast charging. Anyone claiming a technology lead by Tesla is simply cleuless about the state of the cmpetition.

  12. You watch they will try to shut Elon Musk down. I don’t believe much in conspiracies but all previous competitors to existing automobile brands have been shut down.

  13. The larger point is because they have about 3 quarters before they need any new funding they can get this done by roughly March~April next year and still be in a good position to get that funding. Their battery prices will continue to fall and their vehicles even without the tax credit will continue to be better and better deals over the lifetime of the vehicle than a similarly priced gasoline car so their worst problem will be they will still be unable to meet increasing demand. Good problem to have.

  16. There has only been one ten year period in my life that I would not have been able to charge a 100 mile range car at home 99% of the time, part of that time I had a company car, so mine could have charged 24 hours a day most days. That was when I was a field engineer for CNC machine tool manufacturer, or importer, and did lots of overnight travel. That is assuming no charging at work, and that I remember to plug it in when I get home. I’d even be able to charge in slow mode to extend battery life, unless I went on a date in the evening. I’ve owned a car for over 40 years.

  17. You make a compelling argument. The only problem is that every point you raise is, basically, wrong. I hope the CCS network will grow to rival Tesla’s, but they’d better hustle, they’ve got a lot of catching up to do. I don’t sense the same urgency or sense of responsibility from other car makers that Tesla have for their own network. (Frankly, most of them seem to be sitting on their thumbs and crying for the government to build a charging network with tax dollars.) The Chevy Bolt is, by all accounts, a good vehicle, but it’s nowhere near as refined as the Model 3, and GM are losing money on every unit they make. Polestar 2… Sounds promising, but right now it’s nothing more than a press release, and I’d take any range projections with a grain of salt until we see an EPA rating, not EU test cycle.

  18. Tesla’s profitability hinges on lowering battery costs. Batteries have always been the Achilles heel of EVs. So far, Tesla has done quite well with lowering battery costs, better than predicted in fact. Optimizing an assembly line is a well understood process, and I have no doubt that over time, quality issues will be rectified. The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible. All you have to do is stick to the process, no matter who it makes look bad. The secret of TPS is that if you stick to it, problems in the manufacturing process are so glaringly obvious, it is impossible not to correct them. It forces management to “trap” the problem, and fix it at it’s source. As far as the model 3 drive train, the switched reluctance motor is by all accounts amazing. It’s sort of like a cross between a polyphase induction motor, and a polyphase permanent magnet motor, that has the benefits of both. The rotor field is induced by the stator field, but not by slippage inducing currents in coils, or a “squirrel cage”. The rotor is basically a chunk of easily magnetized steel. Under normal conditions the motor is synchronous. Since there are no electrical currents in the rotor, there is no heat generated in the rotor, which is notoriously hard to cool. There are only resistive losses in the stator. Reluctance motors are a very old concept, that never made it because of control issues. Modern high speed digital electronics, and pulse width modulation inverters have made them practical.

  19. Total bunch of garbage from UBS. 2 other tear downs. 1 from the Germans and another from Munro, Both found HUGE margin profits, Munro said he was eating crow and found a 30% margin on the Model 3. Worthless garbage reviews.

  22. There has only been one ten year period in my life that I would not have been able to charge a 100 mile range car at home 99{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the time part of that time I had a company car so mine could have charged 24 hours a day most days. That was when I was a field engineer for CNC machine tool manufacturer or importer and did lots of overnight travel. That is assuming no charging at work and that I remember to plug it in when I get home. I’d even be able to charge in slow mode to extend battery life unless I went on a date in the evening. I’ve owned a car for over 40 years.

  23. You make a compelling argument. The only problem is that every point you raise is basically wrong. I hope the CCS network will grow to rival Tesla’s but they’d better hustle they’ve got a lot of catching up to do. I don’t sense the same urgency or sense of responsibility from other car makers that Tesla have for their own network. (Frankly most of them seem to be sitting on their thumbs and crying for the government to build a charging network with tax dollars.) The Chevy Bolt is by all accounts a good vehicle but it’s nowhere near as refined as the Model 3 and GM are losing money on every unit they make. Polestar 2… Sounds promising but right now it’s nothing more than a press release and I’d take any range projections with a grain of salt until we see an EPA rating not EU test cycle.

  24. Tesla’s profitability hinges on lowering battery costs. Batteries have always been the Achilles heel of EVs. So far Tesla has done quite well with lowering battery costs better than predicted in fact.Optimizing an assembly line is a well understood process and I have no doubt that over time quality issues will be rectified. The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible. All you have to do is stick to the process no matter who it makes look bad. The secret of TPS is that if you stick to it problems in the manufacturing process are so glaringly obvious it is impossible not to correct them. It forces management to trap”” the problem”” and fix it at it’s source. As far as the model 3 drive train the switched reluctance motor is by all accounts amazing. It’s sort of like a cross between a polyphase induction motor and a polyphase permanent magnet motor that has the benefits of both. The rotor field is induced by the stator field but not by slippage inducing currents in coils”” or a “”””squirrel cage””””. The rotor is basically a chunk of easily magnetized steel. Under normal conditions the motor is synchronous. Since there are no electrical currents in the rotor”” there is no heat generated in the rotor which is notoriously hard to cool. There are only resistive losses in the stator.Reluctance motors are a very old concept that never made it because of control issues. Modern high speed digital electronics”” and pulse width modulation inverters have made them practical.”””

  25. Total bunch of garbage from UBS. 2 other tear downs. 1 from the Germans and another from Munro Both found HUGE margin profits Munro said he was eating crow and found a 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} margin on the Model 3. Worthless garbage reviews.

  28. The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible.” I bet that’s what Toyota thought right up to the point where they realised they had made and sold 100 thousand Priusi while forgetting to include a working off-switch. It was an exquisitely well made non-functional off-switch. But still.

  29. Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms” So cars that don’t actually exist yet perform better than the ones you can go out and buy today? When has that not been true? When has anyone cared

  31. I am quite doubtful about all this new flow of info about Tesla Someone say they will be profitable at $41K, other at $35K other at $28K. I do not trust much anyone I think we will have to wait for results And see what happens

  32. KENT you actually said “””. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles, which cost $1000 each plus labor”’ sooo IT COST 4,000 for door handles!! What rag did you get this BS from TRY THINKING

  34. The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible.””I bet that’s what Toyota thought right up to the point where they realised they had made and sold 100 thousand Priusi while forgetting to include a working off-switch.It was an exquisitely well made non-functional off-switch. But still.”””

  35. Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms””So cars that don’t actually exist yet perform better than the ones you can go out and buy today? When has that not been true? When has anyone cared”””

  37. I am quite doubtful about all this new flow of info about Tesla Someone say they will be profitable at $41K other at $35K other at $28K. I do not trust much anyone I think we will have to wait for results And see what happens

  38. KENT you actually said \””””. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles”” which cost $1000 each plus labor”’sooo IT COST 4″”000 for door handles!! What rag did you get this BS fromTRY THINKING”””

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  42. pre-market trading at 288 and dropping. Market ain’t buying it. Funding? Convertibles are at 360 and are so out of the money it negatively impacts current prices even more. The $230m november convertibles are extremely out of the money at 560, and they’ve got a $157 note maturing in December. I don’t share your view that that are in a good position to get funding given yet additional negative cash flow projections. In any other business when need a capital call in a declining share price scenario you usually have asset sales. If he cuts SolarCity loose, he can show some positive direction. As well if he sells some of his Spacex. Not sure if even that is enough.

  43. That would be what you’d call a design error…. which they brilliantly manufactured to spec. ;-)” Exactly my point. The toyota production system is not infallible. It is vulnerable to all sorts of failure modes, such as design errors, market requirement specification errors, engineering specification errors (7MGTE Supra engines were infamous for having head bolts that were too loose. They were done to spec, but the spec was not enough to stop head gasket failure. Curiously, if the spec was changed from 74 Nm to 74 ft-lbs then everything mysteriously worked….) and of course the bizarre sort of error where they do things like develop a lovely little sports car like the MR-S, and lovely little sports-car-engine like the 2zz, and then put a pedestrian 1zz corolla engine in the sports car, while you could get the 2zz in the corolla.

  45. pre-market trading at 288 and dropping. Market ain’t buying it. Funding? Convertibles are at 360 and are so out of the money it negatively impacts current prices even more. The $230m november convertibles are extremely out of the money at 560 and they’ve got a $157 note maturing in December. I don’t share your view that that are in a good position to get funding given yet additional negative cash flow projections. In any other business when need a capital call in a declining share price scenario you usually have asset sales. If he cuts SolarCity loose he can show some positive direction. As well if he sells some of his Spacex. Not sure if even that is enough.

  46. That would be what you’d call a design error…. which they brilliantly manufactured to spec. ;-)””Exactly my point. The toyota production system is not infallible. It is vulnerable to all sorts of failure modes”” such as design errors market requirement specification errors engineering specification errors (7MGTE Supra engines were infamous for having head bolts that were too loose. They were done to spec but the spec was not enough to stop head gasket failure. Curiously if the spec was changed from 74 Nm to 74 ft-lbs then everything mysteriously worked….) and of course the bizarre sort of error where they do things like develop a lovely little sports car like the MR-S and lovely little sports-car-engine like the 2zz and then put a pedestrian 1zz corolla engine in the sports car”” while you could get the 2zz in the corolla.”””

  47. Sure, in that Tesla is worth less (vs worthless). But a buyer would need to convince shareholders to sell at a discount while at the same time taking over debt already rated NIG while facing a capital call, which would also mean a bigger discount etc. The biggest hit would be to Musk who has pledged a lot of shares as collateral, and his Spacex side. Equity holders would take a bath (those late in the game) and a debt restructuring, and payouts to the shorts. All fancy words for SHTF. Ultimately, it would affect the production line of course. These situations have a tendency to spiral. TSLA is best off to restructure and have a car company absorb it, and he focuses on the space program.

  49. Sure in that Tesla is worth less (vs worthless). But a buyer would need to convince shareholders to sell at a discount while at the same time taking over debt already rated NIG while facing a capital call which would also mean a bigger discount etc. The biggest hit would be to Musk who has pledged a lot of shares as collateral and his Spacex side. Equity holders would take a bath (those late in the game) and a debt restructuring and payouts to the shorts. All fancy words for SHTF. Ultimately it would affect the production line of course. These situations have a tendency to spiral. TSLA is best off to restructure and have a car company absorb it and he focuses on the space program.

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  55. Yo Tommy Boy! Came out in the news over the weekend that the entire Saudi funding thing was total bupkiss! BUT YOU SAID it was all true. You were practically screaming it was on your posts here. Who’s the ‘moron’ now, eh?

  56. I particularly like how the rear bumper of the Model 3s fall off after getting wet. Seems that water fills up in the bumper and the weight causes it to fall off. …now waiting for the Musk Fluffers to scream about how I am lying about all this in 5…4…3…2…

  57. Mr Musk has already been caught flat out lying to us about the Saudi ‘secured funding’ to take Tesla private. This despite how Tommy & the rest of the Musk Fluffers on here have been screaming that it was all true, not load of BS as the case pretty much seems to be. In fact, Tesla hasn’t been providing ANY information on this SECURED funding ever since they shut down Musk’s Tweets on the subject. So why should anyone believe this? *Anyone* being defined as people who are NOT a Kool-Aid drinking Musk Fluffer devoid of all reason and critical thinking skills, of course.

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  62. Yo Tommy Boy! Came out in the news over the weekend that the entire Saudi funding thing was total bupkiss! BUT YOU SAID it was all true. You were practically screaming it was on your posts here.Who’s the ‘moron’ now eh?

  63. I particularly like how the rear bumper of the Model 3s fall off after getting wet. Seems that water fills up in the bumper and the weight causes it to fall off. …now waiting for the Musk Fluffers to scream about how I am lying about all this in 5…4…3…2…

  64. Mr Musk has already been caught flat out lying to us about the Saudi ‘secured funding’ to take Tesla private. This despite how Tommy & the rest of the Musk Fluffers on here have been screaming that it was all true not load of BS as the case pretty much seems to be.In fact Tesla hasn’t been providing ANY information on this SECURED funding ever since they shut down Musk’s Tweets on the subject.So why should anyone believe this? *Anyone* being defined as people who are NOT a Kool-Aid drinking Musk Fluffer devoid of all reason and critical thinking skills of course.

  65. These situations have a tendency to spiral. ” Only if people believe BS like this report by UBS. Why should they?

  66. There are no negative cash flow projections, they are cash flow positive now. This UBS claim they are shipping money with the M3 is bogus and contradicted by more than one equally authoritative teardown.

  67. What’s funny is, you’ve never backed up so much as one thing you’ve ever said by quoting anything. It’s because you are a liar and can’t.

  68. No, nothing like that happened. You will never quote such, because you make it up out of your hopes and dreams as you go along. You are the moron, still and always. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt.

  71. Maybe come back when you have launched a rocket or built an electric car. There are many of us out here in the real world who do not give a rip about secured funding.

  72. These situations have a tendency to spiral. “”Only if people believe BS like this report by UBS. Why should they?”””

  73. There are no negative cash flow projections they are cash flow positive now. This UBS claim they are shipping money with the M3 is bogus and contradicted by more than one equally authoritative teardown.

  74. What’s funny is you’ve never backed up so much as one thing you’ve ever said by quoting anything.It’s because you are a liar and can’t.

  75. No nothing like that happened. You will never quote such because you make it up out of your hopes and dreams as you go along.You are the moron still and always.Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt.

  78. Maybe come back when you have launched a rocket or built an electric car. There are many of us out here in the real world who do not give a rip about secured funding.

  79. They are cash flow positive now? How do you know this? Not according to any published financials. They had negative free cash flow, negative working capital, and negative net income of all sizes. And you say they are positive? Prove it. Granted there have been improvements, but to swing into black within 3 months? Cash flow is what it is.

  80. They are cash flow positive now? How do you know this? Not according to any published financials. They had negative free cash flow negative working capital and negative net income of all sizes. And you say they are positive? Prove it. Granted there have been improvements but to swing into black within 3 months? Cash flow is what it is.

  82. Yes it did happen. I can understand why you would keep denying it, since it shatters your non-credibilty. The Saudis were never interested. There was no deal.

  84. Yes it did happen. I can understand why you would keep denying it since it shatters your non-credibilty.The Saudis were never interested. There was no deal.

  85. Yes, you’ve confirmed you only ever believed what the shorters had to say. UBS’ estimate Tesla is shipping money with the cars is ludicrous, as pointed out above other perfectly competent tear down reports show up to 30% profit. Averaging all the ones I know of including the ridiculous UBS report gives an average estimated margin of 15%. Shipping 6,000 a week at the current price of about $47k is profit rate over $2bn/year right there, and that rate from just the Model 3 will improve drastically. 47,000 * 0.15 * 6000 * 50 = They aren’t losing money on any of their other cars either. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/tesla-tempers-cash-burn-as-musk-s-model-3-production-gains-steam So with that burn rate in the article above and that production rate at that margin of Model 3s, they begin to be quite profitable. electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitability And if Munro is correct about 30%, quite profitable much more quickly.

  86. No, you never have here. In fact, your first lie remains proved so, you cannot quote the “retraction” you claimed existed. Because it doesn’t.

  88. Yes you’ve confirmed you only ever believed what the shorters had to say.UBS’ estimate Tesla is shipping money with the cars is ludicrous as pointed out above other perfectly competent tear down reports show up to 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} profit. Averaging all the ones I know of including the ridiculous UBS report gives an average estimated margin of 15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. Shipping 6000 a week at the current price of about $47k is profit rate over $2bn/year right there and that rate from just the Model 3 will improve drastically. 47000 * 0.15 * 6000 * 50 = They aren’t losing money on any of their other cars either.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/tesla-tempers-cash-burn-as-musk-s-model-3-production-gains-steamSo with that burn rate in the article above and that production rate at that margin of Model 3s they begin to be quite profitable.electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitabilityAnd if Munro is correct about 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} quite profitable much more quickly.

  89. No you never have here.In fact your first lie remains proved so you cannot quote the retraction”” you claimed existed.Because it doesn’t.”””

  91. If you’re going to discuss cars you go to a car site where car enthusiasts breath bleed and crap out anything motorhead related. . Doing so you would have come across several articles of the Munro break down of the model 3. All car manufacturers hire these guys to see how the other manufacturers are building their vehicles. I believe it was a 31{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} margin quoted. Only Ferrari was close averaging 56000 Euros per car which is slightly under 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}.

  92. If you’re going to discuss cars, you go to a car site where car enthusiasts breath, bleed and crap out anything motorhead related. . Doing so, you would have come across several articles of the Munro break down of the model 3. All car manufacturers hire these guys to see how the other manufacturers are building their vehicles. I believe it was a 31% margin quoted. Only Ferrari was close, averaging 56,000 Euros per car, which is slightly under 20%.

  93. If you’re going to discuss cars, you go to a car site where car enthusiasts breath, bleed and crap out anything motorhead related. . Doing so, you would have come across several articles of the Munro break down of the model 3. All car manufacturers hire these guys to see how the other manufacturers are building their vehicles. I believe it was a 31% margin quoted. Only Ferrari was close, averaging 56,000 Euros per car, which is slightly under 20%.

  94. Yes, you’ve confirmed you only ever believed what the shorters had to say.

    UBS’ estimate Tesla is shipping money with the cars is ludicrous, as pointed out above other perfectly competent tear down reports show up to 30% profit. Averaging all the ones I know of including the ridiculous UBS report gives an average estimated margin of 15%. Shipping 6,000 a week at the current price of about $47k is profit rate over $2bn/year right there, and that rate from just the Model 3 will improve drastically.

    47,000 * 0.15 * 6000 * 50 =

    They aren’t losing money on any of their other cars either.

    bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/tesla-tempers-cash-burn-as-musk-s-model-3-production-gains-steam

    So with that burn rate in the article above and that production rate at that margin of Model 3s, they begin to be quite profitable.

    electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitability

    And if Munro is correct about 30%, quite profitable much more quickly.

  96. ” Yes it did happen. ” <-- Then quote it. " The Saudis were never interested. " <-- The Saudis have been buying as much of Tesla as the can, and are now up to over 5%. There is the bullshit you evidently believe, or at least the lies you are willing to tell... ...And reality is a completely different matter.

  98. Yes it did happen. I can understand why you would keep denying it, since it shatters your non-credibilty.

    The Saudis were never interested. There was no deal.

  99. They are cash flow positive now? How do you know this? Not according to any published financials. They had negative free cash flow, negative working capital, and negative net income of all sizes. And you say they are positive? Prove it. Granted there have been improvements, but to swing into black within 3 months? Cash flow is what it is.

  101. There are no negative cash flow projections, they are cash flow positive now. This UBS claim they are shipping money with the M3 is bogus and contradicted by more than one equally authoritative teardown.

  103. No, nothing like that happened. You will never quote such, because you make it up out of your hopes and dreams as you go along.

    You are the moron, still and always.
    Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt.

  106. Maybe come back when you have launched a rocket or built an electric car. There are many of us out here in the real world who do not give a rip about secured funding.

  111. Yo Tommy Boy!

    Came out in the news over the weekend that the entire Saudi funding thing was total bupkiss!

    BUT YOU SAID it was all true. You were practically screaming it was on your posts here.

    Who’s the ‘moron’ now, eh?

  112. I particularly like how the rear bumper of the Model 3s fall off after getting wet. Seems that water fills up in the bumper and the weight causes it to fall off.

    …now waiting for the Musk Fluffers to scream about how I am lying about all this in 5…4…3…2…

  113. Mr Musk has already been caught flat out lying to us about the Saudi ‘secured funding’ to take Tesla private. This despite how Tommy & the rest of the Musk Fluffers on here have been screaming that it was all true, not load of BS as the case pretty much seems to be.

    In fact, Tesla hasn’t been providing ANY information on this SECURED funding ever since they shut down Musk’s Tweets on the subject.

    So why should anyone believe this? *Anyone* being defined as people who are NOT a Kool-Aid drinking Musk Fluffer devoid of all reason and critical thinking skills, of course.

  114. Sure, in that Tesla is worth less (vs worthless). But a buyer would need to convince shareholders to sell at a discount while at the same time taking over debt already rated NIG while facing a capital call, which would also mean a bigger discount etc. The biggest hit would be to Musk who has pledged a lot of shares as collateral, and his Spacex side. Equity holders would take a bath (those late in the game) and a debt restructuring, and payouts to the shorts. All fancy words for SHTF. Ultimately, it would affect the production line of course. These situations have a tendency to spiral. TSLA is best off to restructure and have a car company absorb it, and he focuses on the space program.

  117. pre-market trading at 288 and dropping. Market ain’t buying it. Funding? Convertibles are at 360 and are so out of the money it negatively impacts current prices even more. The $230m november convertibles are extremely out of the money at 560, and they’ve got a $157 note maturing in December. I don’t share your view that that are in a good position to get funding given yet additional negative cash flow projections. In any other business when need a capital call in a declining share price scenario you usually have asset sales. If he cuts SolarCity loose, he can show some positive direction. As well if he sells some of his Spacex. Not sure if even that is enough.

  118. “That would be what you’d call a design error…. which they brilliantly manufactured to spec. ;-)”

    Exactly my point. The toyota production system is not infallible. It is vulnerable to all sorts of failure modes, such as design errors, market requirement specification errors, engineering specification errors (7MGTE Supra engines were infamous for having head bolts that were too loose. They were done to spec, but the spec was not enough to stop head gasket failure. Curiously, if the spec was changed from 74 Nm to 74 ft-lbs then everything mysteriously worked….) and of course the bizarre sort of error where they do things like develop a lovely little sports car like the MR-S, and lovely little sports-car-engine like the 2zz, and then put a pedestrian 1zz corolla engine in the sports car, while you could get the 2zz in the corolla.

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  121. “The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible.”

    I bet that’s what Toyota thought right up to the point where they realised they had made and sold 100 thousand Priusi while forgetting to include a working off-switch.

    It was an exquisitely well made non-functional off-switch. But still.

  122. “Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms”

    So cars that don’t actually exist yet perform better than the ones you can go out and buy today? When has that not been true? When has anyone cared

  124. I am quite doubtful about all this new flow of info about Tesla
    Someone say they will be profitable at $41K, other at $35K other at $28K. I do not trust much anyone
    I think we will have to wait for results
    And see what happens

  125. KENT you actually said “””. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles, which cost $1000 each plus labor”’
    sooo IT COST 4,000 for door handles!! What rag did you get this BS from
    TRY THINKING

  127. There has only been one ten year period in my life that I would not have been able to charge a 100 mile range car at home 99% of the time, part of that time I had a company car, so mine could have charged 24 hours a day most days. That was when I was a field engineer for CNC machine tool manufacturer, or importer, and did lots of overnight travel. That is assuming no charging at work, and that I remember to plug it in when I get home. I’d even be able to charge in slow mode to extend battery life, unless I went on a date in the evening. I’ve owned a car for over 40 years.

  128. You make a compelling argument. The only problem is that every point you raise is, basically, wrong. I hope the CCS network will grow to rival Tesla’s, but they’d better hustle, they’ve got a lot of catching up to do. I don’t sense the same urgency or sense of responsibility from other car makers that Tesla have for their own network. (Frankly, most of them seem to be sitting on their thumbs and crying for the government to build a charging network with tax dollars.) The Chevy Bolt is, by all accounts, a good vehicle, but it’s nowhere near as refined as the Model 3, and GM are losing money on every unit they make. Polestar 2… Sounds promising, but right now it’s nothing more than a press release, and I’d take any range projections with a grain of salt until we see an EPA rating, not EU test cycle.

  129. Tesla’s profitability hinges on lowering battery costs. Batteries have always been the Achilles heel of EVs. So far, Tesla has done quite well with lowering battery costs, better than predicted in fact.

    Optimizing an assembly line is a well understood process, and I have no doubt that over time, quality issues will be rectified. The Toyota Production System is pretty much infallible. All you have to do is stick to the process, no matter who it makes look bad. The secret of TPS is that if you stick to it, problems in the manufacturing process are so glaringly obvious, it is impossible not to correct them. It forces management to “trap” the problem, and fix it at it’s source.

    As far as the model 3 drive train, the switched reluctance motor is by all accounts amazing. It’s sort of like a cross between a polyphase induction motor, and a polyphase permanent magnet motor, that has the benefits of both. The rotor field is induced by the stator field, but not by slippage inducing currents in coils, or a “squirrel cage”. The rotor is basically a chunk of easily magnetized steel. Under normal conditions the motor is synchronous. Since there are no electrical currents in the rotor, there is no heat generated in the rotor, which is notoriously hard to cool. There are only resistive losses in the stator.
    Reluctance motors are a very old concept, that never made it because of control issues. Modern high speed digital electronics, and pulse width modulation inverters have made them practical.

  130. Total bunch of garbage from UBS. 2 other tear downs. 1 from the Germans and another from Munro, Both found HUGE margin profits, Munro said he was eating crow and found a 30% margin on the Model 3. Worthless garbage reviews.

  133. When another battery EV manufacturer posts battery life number like 200k miles and still at 85% of battery life, and most buyers of battery EV’s need to charge them quickly as opposed to overnight, then you might have a point. Porsche Taycan has nothing like the price point of any Tesla, it’s $90k.

    It is far from good enough to say there are car manufacturers who beat Tesla on one point or another, they need to be be all around competitors.

  134. They do not get “shut down”. Auto manufacturing (unlike say rocket manufacturing) is a mature industry with multiple well financed companies producing quality products. It is a capital heavy business where you take massive losses up front and see a return on investment years later.

    So Tesla always had a very hard climb ahead of it. Auto quality is hard. Mass production is hard. Companies are shut down when they go bankrupt not when a secret cabal shuts them down.

  135. Tesla is fast becoming a second rate player in the EV arena in terms of technology. We can also do without the technology of disppearing door handles, which cost $1000 each plus labor and are prone to failure (one buyer of a use Model S discovered that all four of the car’s door handles had been replaced). In terms of things Tesla fans have bragged about in the past (driving range, battery recharge rates, public charger network) Tesla is getting hammered these days by cars that haven’t even made it to automaker’s showrooms : Porsche Taycan (and others) ability to recharge twice as fast using the universal standard charging protocol that practically every other automaker (except Tesla) is using , the driving ranges of the Chevy Bolt – significantly greater than the base Model 3 and also greater than Tesla Model S cars costing twice as much, also the Volvo Polestar 2, with price matching the base Model 3 but a driving range greater than the $78,000 version of the Model 3. A CCS public fast charging network (350KW) being installed in this country by Porsche, VW and others and in Euope by IONITY and Euro automakers even before the appearance of cars that can take advantage of their ultra fast charging. Anyone claiming a technology lead by Tesla is simply cleuless about the state of the cmpetition.

  136. You watch, they will try to shut Elon Musk down. I don’t believe much in conspiracies but all previous competitors to existing automobile brands have been shut down.

  137. The larger point is, because they have about 3 quarters before they need any new funding, they can get this done by roughly March~April next year and still be in a good position to get that funding. Their battery prices will continue to fall, and their vehicles even without the tax credit will continue to be better and better deals over the lifetime of the vehicle than a similarly priced gasoline car so their worst problem will be they will still be unable to meet increasing demand. Good problem to have.

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