Can India keep fast economic growth despite foreign oil dependence and high costs?

India imported 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in June, an increase of 10 percent from a year earlier, according to data from shipping and industry sources, with the top three suppliers Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran making up nearly half of imports.

India is the third largest oil importer after China and the USA. India will be rapidly passing the USA for second place in oil imports. The US is continuing to grow its oil production which will reduce its need for imported oil.

India's forecasted oil imports
5.2 million barrels per day in 2019 
5.8 million barrels per day in 2020
6.3 million barrels per day in 2021
7.0 million barrels per day in 2022

India’s crude oil import bill increased 76% to $10.2 billion in July as compared to the corresponding month a year ago, widening trade deficit and adding pressure on the fiscal deficit for the month.

Any recession could delay the growth in oil imports by about one year.

In June, India imported about 592,800 bpd of Iranian oil, a decline of about 16% from May, as refiners began cutting oil purchases under pressure from U.S. sanctions.

India’s monthly oil imports from Iran surged by about 30% to a record 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, as state refiners’ intake surged ahead of U.S. sanctions in November.

India will buy 6 million barrels of US oil from November to January. This will offset some oil India would have imported from Iran. Saudi Arabia and other countries will increase production to cover the sanction limited Iranian oil.

The recent surge in international oil prices had resulted in worsening of the current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit for the domestic economy apart from an inflated petroleum subsidy and high inflation.

India imports over 82% of its crude oil.

India reported that GDP growth in the first quarter was 8.2% which was the best level in two years.

India’s manufacturing increased by 13% in the first quarter.

The Rupee was at its lowest level at 71 Rupee to 1 US dollar. Inflation is at high levels.

108 thoughts on “Can India keep fast economic growth despite foreign oil dependence and high costs?”

  1. You can doubt me as much as you want. Do you doubt the PBOC? Please google PBOC and Yuan convertibility. You can find the administrative rules for settlement of RMB on their website. Seems like links on this channel don’t work. RMB isn’t convertible. Period. China uses USD/EUR/JPY primarily for trade. They buy oil in USD, they sell tv’s to WalMart for USD, they buy trucks from Mercedes in EUR. BaoSteel sells rolled steel to GM for USD. And so on. No one buys anything outside of China for RMB (though there is a pilot program for Chinese banks to settle RMB outside of China but it’s highly restrictive). The max a Chinese can convert RMB (or CNY locally) into USD and send it overseas is USD 50k per year. That’s it. As for pipeline, the cost of building a pipeline that is 3x the length of Keystone? And how about selecting which countries do you think it ought to go through and allow it? Versus the cost and flexibility of shipping by sea, already set up and working quite well?

    Reply
  2. You can doubt me as much as you want. Do you doubt the PBOC? Please google PBOC and Yuan convertibility. You can find the administrative rules for settlement of RMB on their website. Seems like links on this channel don’t work. RMB isn’t convertible. Period. China uses USD/EUR/JPY primarily for trade. They buy oil in USD they sell tv’s to WalMart for USD they buy trucks from Mercedes in EUR. BaoSteel sells rolled steel to GM for USD. And so on. No one buys anything outside of China for RMB (though there is a pilot program for Chinese banks to settle RMB outside of China but it’s highly restrictive). The max a Chinese can convert RMB (or CNY locally) into USD and send it overseas is USD 50k per year. That’s it.As for pipeline the cost of building a pipeline that is 3x the length of Keystone? And how about selecting which countries do you think it ought to go through and allow it? Versus the cost and flexibility of shipping by sea already set up and working quite well?

    Reply
  3. there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea.” I was talking about SA’s pipeline, not Iran’s. My response was to Combinetric, which referred to the Saudi’s production capacity.

    Reply
  4. there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea.””I was talking about SA’s pipeline”” not Iran’s. My response was to Combinetric”” which referred to the Saudi’s production capacity.”””

    Reply
  5. I doubt what you are saying is true since your currency must be convertible otherwise you can’t trade and China does trade. As far as pipelines are concerned the US has mountains and desert and freezing coal weather and we build pipelines. Pipelines aren’t made out of paper. If there is enough oil to justify it it will get build.

    Reply
  6. I doubt what you are saying is true since your currency must be convertible otherwise you can’t trade and China does trade. As far as pipelines are concerned the US has mountains and desert and freezing coal weather and we build pipelines. Pipelines aren’t made out of paper. If there is enough oil to justify it it will get build.

    Reply
  7. You can doubt me as much as you want. Do you doubt the PBOC? Please google PBOC and Yuan convertibility. You can find the administrative rules for settlement of RMB on their website. Seems like links on this channel don’t work. RMB isn’t convertible. Period. China uses USD/EUR/JPY primarily for trade. They buy oil in USD, they sell tv’s to WalMart for USD, they buy trucks from Mercedes in EUR. BaoSteel sells rolled steel to GM for USD. And so on. No one buys anything outside of China for RMB (though there is a pilot program for Chinese banks to settle RMB outside of China but it’s highly restrictive). The max a Chinese can convert RMB (or CNY locally) into USD and send it overseas is USD 50k per year. That’s it.

    As for pipeline, the cost of building a pipeline that is 3x the length of Keystone? And how about selecting which countries do you think it ought to go through and allow it? Versus the cost and flexibility of shipping by sea, already set up and working quite well?

    Reply
  8. War zone or not, sanctions are so much easier and more effective. btw, there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea. Some “obstacles” in the way…..Also, the insurance co’s have already dropped Iranian shipments. Iran is trying to sell oil on CIF basis…..so buyers need to trust Iran to cover losses…..good luck with that (USD can’t be used to pay for any losses). Iran is toast.

    Reply
  9. War zone or not sanctions are so much easier and more effective. btw there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea. Some obstacles”” in the way…..Also”””” the insurance co’s have already dropped Iranian shipments. Iran is trying to sell oil on CIF basis…..so buyers need to trust Iran to cover losses…..good luck with that (USD can’t be used to pay for any losses). Iran is toast.”””

    Reply
  10. The RMB isn’t convertible, that is the crucial achilles heal of China. The Iranians are free to have a RMB account in China to get paid and use the funds to buy stuff from China. But Iranians needs USD to buy the stuff they need (car parts, oil rig parts, food etc). No one is about to sell them stuff and take IRR for it. They can’t go to a bank in China and convert their RMB into USD. People (Chinese mostly) tried to get around currency restrictions by issuing dim sum bonds out of HK to move their RMB into USD and offshore, but that’s been largely shut down (and people jailed). As for China’s exporters – they get paid in USD and the money stays with the Chinese central bank’s USD account in NYC. In return, the PBOC “converts” (by printing money) the offshore USD into local RMB for the exporter to get paid. As for importers, like Sinopec, they will buy crude in USD (e.g., from Iran but that door is closed now), and pay the seller from PBOC’s USD account in NYC. Sinopec then sells gasoline in China for RMB, and their RMB income at home is offset by USD outlays in the US. China’s balance sheet has a huge amount of USD on one side (in NY), and a huge amount of RMB on the other (in Beijing), never the twain shall meet. IF they did, the RMB would devalue in an instant. Oil pipelines that far from China’s heartland is out of the question, economically and politically (btw, some mountains and steppes and sub-zeros and bandits stand in the way), Gas is not that more doable, but Iran consumes most of the gas it produces. Anyway, a moot point given the sanctions. Goes to show, a good example of USD hegemony.

    Reply
  11. The RMB isn’t convertible that is the crucial achilles heal of China. The Iranians are free to have a RMB account in China to get paid and use the funds to buy stuff from China. But Iranians needs USD to buy the stuff they need (car parts oil rig parts food etc). No one is about to sell them stuff and take IRR for it. They can’t go to a bank in China and convert their RMB into USD. People (Chinese mostly) tried to get around currency restrictions by issuing dim sum bonds out of HK to move their RMB into USD and offshore but that’s been largely shut down (and people jailed). As for China’s exporters – they get paid in USD and the money stays with the Chinese central bank’s USD account in NYC. In return the PBOC converts”” (by printing money) the offshore USD into local RMB for the exporter to get paid. As for importers”” like Sinopec they will buy crude in USD (e.g. from Iran but that door is closed now) and pay the seller from PBOC’s USD account in NYC. Sinopec then sells gasoline in China for RMB and their RMB income at home is offset by USD outlays in the US.China’s balance sheet has a huge amount of USD on one side (in NY) and a huge amount of RMB on the other (in Beijing) never the twain shall meet. IF they did the RMB would devalue in an instant. Oil pipelines that far from China’s heartland is out of the question economically and politically (btw some mountains and steppes and sub-zeros and bandits stand in the way) Gas is not that more doable but Iran consumes most of the gas it produces. Anyway a moot point given the sanctions.Goes to show”” a good example of USD hegemony.”””

    Reply
  12. “there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea.”

    I was talking about SA’s pipeline, not Iran’s. My response was to Combinetric, which referred to the Saudi’s production capacity.

    Reply
  13. I doubt what you are saying is true since your currency must be convertible otherwise you can’t trade and China does trade. As far as pipelines are concerned the US has mountains and desert and freezing coal weather and we build pipelines. Pipelines aren’t made out of paper. If there is enough oil to justify it it will get build.

    Reply
  14. War zone or not, sanctions are so much easier and more effective. btw, there is no Iranian pipeline to the Red Sea. Some “obstacles” in the way…..Also, the insurance co’s have already dropped Iranian shipments. Iran is trying to sell oil on CIF basis…..so buyers need to trust Iran to cover losses…..good luck with that (USD can’t be used to pay for any losses). Iran is toast.

    Reply
  15. The RMB isn’t convertible, that is the crucial achilles heal of China. The Iranians are free to have a RMB account in China to get paid and use the funds to buy stuff from China. But Iranians needs USD to buy the stuff they need (car parts, oil rig parts, food etc). No one is about to sell them stuff and take IRR for it. They can’t go to a bank in China and convert their RMB into USD. People (Chinese mostly) tried to get around currency restrictions by issuing dim sum bonds out of HK to move their RMB into USD and offshore, but that’s been largely shut down (and people jailed).

    As for China’s exporters – they get paid in USD and the money stays with the Chinese central bank’s USD account in NYC. In return, the PBOC “converts” (by printing money) the offshore USD into local RMB for the exporter to get paid.

    As for importers, like Sinopec, they will buy crude in USD (e.g., from Iran but that door is closed now), and pay the seller from PBOC’s USD account in NYC. Sinopec then sells gasoline in China for RMB, and their RMB income at home is offset by USD outlays in the US.

    China’s balance sheet has a huge amount of USD on one side (in NY), and a huge amount of RMB on the other (in Beijing), never the twain shall meet. IF they did, the RMB would devalue in an instant.

    Oil pipelines that far from China’s heartland is out of the question, economically and politically (btw, some mountains and steppes and sub-zeros and bandits stand in the way), Gas is not that more doable, but Iran consumes most of the gas it produces. Anyway, a moot point given the sanctions.

    Goes to show, a good example of USD hegemony.

    Reply
  16. Every currency except maybe Venezuela’s is convertible at a price. And China does export a lot of stuff. Maybe the Iranians are interest in buying some. The good thing about Iranian oil and gas is that Iran and China are close enough that pipelines could be build to transport the oil and gas.

    Reply
  17. Every currency except maybe Venezuela’s is convertible at a price. And China does export a lot of stuff. Maybe the Iranians are interest in buying some. The good thing about Iranian oil and gas is that Iran and China are close enough that pipelines could be build to transport the oil and gas.

    Reply
  18. not sure what you mean? Their (former) customers are only reachable by boat and Iran only has upstream pipes, no downstream that go out of the country. Doesn’t matter – sanctions don’t care about logistics.

    Reply
  19. not sure what you mean? Their (former) customers are only reachable by boat and Iran only has upstream pipes no downstream that go out of the country. Doesn’t matter – sanctions don’t care about logistics.

    Reply
  20. …war in the ME. <--- Middle East. Or perhaps I should have said, "Persian Gulf" Their oil terminals and oil container ships will be in the war zone (missiles). If one of the major oil terminals are hit, prices will spike big time. They have a pipeline built to a terminal in the Red Sea just to help mitigate this possibility. But when oil container ships still will be sparse in that kind of environment...the insurance companies will drop them like a New York minute, if they don't already have 'Act of War' clauses to impose. California imports oil from the ME. One of the few states that still do so. Puts the 'tard' in 'greentard', that does.

    Reply
  21. So? China buys about 650kbbl a day from Iran out of the 8.5m they need. They are currently paying the Iranians in RMB because Iran isn’t allowed to trade in USD. What on earth will the Iranians buy with the RMB? chopsticks? Iran needs about $55bn a year to pay for imports (in USD) and all that RMB won’t do them any good, not a convertible currency. Game is over for them. The US has China by the shorthairs. Not too many noticed that China dropped the tariff on US oil, and contracts are flowing again. Why? Because Sinopec asked their higher-ups to keep the US tankers coming because they understand Iran is toast. WTI is much cheaper than Brent (by about 8 bucks) and China has built refining capacity to handle sweeter US. Basically, Iran is being shut out by the US who has in turn managed to get China to buy more crude from stateside. It’s called winning.

    Reply
  22. So? China buys about 650kbbl a day from Iran out of the 8.5m they need. They are currently paying the Iranians in RMB because Iran isn’t allowed to trade in USD. What on earth will the Iranians buy with the RMB? chopsticks? Iran needs about $55bn a year to pay for imports (in USD) and all that RMB won’t do them any good not a convertible currency. Game is over for them. The US has China by the shorthairs. Not too many noticed that China dropped the tariff on US oil and contracts are flowing again. Why? Because Sinopec asked their higher-ups to keep the US tankers coming because they understand Iran is toast. WTI is much cheaper than Brent (by about 8 bucks) and China has built refining capacity to handle sweeter US.Basically Iran is being shut out by the US who has in turn managed to get China to buy more crude from stateside. It’s called winning.

    Reply
  23. Every currency except maybe Venezuela’s is convertible at a price. And China does export a lot of stuff. Maybe the Iranians are interest in buying some. The good thing about Iranian oil and gas is that Iran and China are close enough that pipelines could be build to transport the oil and gas.

    Reply
  24. not sure what you mean? Their (former) customers are only reachable by boat and Iran only has upstream pipes, no downstream that go out of the country. Doesn’t matter – sanctions don’t care about logistics.

    Reply
  25. They have been growing 4+% in the last 3 years and have strong reserves. I would say that they are precisely in the position of selling oil for cheap

    Reply
  26. They have been growing 4+{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} in the last 3 years and have strong reserves. I would say that they are precisely in the position of selling oil for cheap

    Reply
  27. So? China buys about 650kbbl a day from Iran out of the 8.5m they need. They are currently paying the Iranians in RMB because Iran isn’t allowed to trade in USD. What on earth will the Iranians buy with the RMB? chopsticks? Iran needs about $55bn a year to pay for imports (in USD) and all that RMB won’t do them any good, not a convertible currency. Game is over for them. The US has China by the shorthairs. Not too many noticed that China dropped the tariff on US oil, and contracts are flowing again. Why? Because Sinopec asked their higher-ups to keep the US tankers coming because they understand Iran is toast. WTI is much cheaper than Brent (by about 8 bucks) and China has built refining capacity to handle sweeter US.

    Basically, Iran is being shut out by the US who has in turn managed to get China to buy more crude from stateside. It’s called winning.

    Reply
  28. Hell if the US government read NBF… Heavy investment in MSR Throw alt-fusion some funding Cancel SLS, replace with F9H, BFR, make a contract for BO

    Reply
  29. Hell if the US government read NBF…Heavy investment in MSRThrow alt-fusion some fundingCancel SLS replace with F9H BFR make a contract for BO

    Reply
  30. No I disagree. If oil goes up (due to say Iran being cut off) then the Saudis ramp up production while prices go up to say $90 a barrel. In the meantime: Trump states that produce oil (TX, ND, OK, OH, PA, etc) rake in serious $$$$. Hillary states that hate oil (CA, NY, etc) just pay more. High oil prices aren’t quite the drag they once were for the US economy. The real economic picture is complex. If oil prices spike upwards for four months then frackers lock in those prices and go on an expansion binge.

    Reply
  31. No I disagree. If oil goes up (due to say Iran being cut off) then the Saudis ramp up production while prices go up to say $90 a barrel.In the meantime:Trump states that produce oil (TX ND OK OH PA etc) rake in serious $$$$.Hillary states that hate oil (CA NY etc) just pay more.High oil prices aren’t quite the drag they once were for the US economy. The real economic picture is complex. If oil prices spike upwards for four months then frackers lock in those prices and go on an expansion binge.

    Reply
  32. not so sure, not all oil is the same. The US refineries aren’t geared for US oil which is why we import it from Canada/KSA etc, more than we export. It would mean a $150/bbl would hit US shores immediately, and at the pump. Remember 2008. It’s in US interests to keep prices low. The trick now is to do this while trying to replace Iran’s production, not an easy task so a short term price spike. Iran will be crushed, today Japan announced they are cutting off Iranian imports. Now it’s just China left.

    Reply
  33. not so sure not all oil is the same. The US refineries aren’t geared for US oil which is why we import it from Canada/KSA etc more than we export. It would mean a $150/bbl would hit US shores immediately and at the pump. Remember 2008. It’s in US interests to keep prices low. The trick now is to do this while trying to replace Iran’s production not an easy task so a short term price spike. Iran will be crushed today Japan announced they are cutting off Iranian imports. Now it’s just China left.

    Reply
  34. yes, and it’s not just India. Japan and Korea. China, of course, doesn’t care about sanctions. Now, if Trump can use the trade sanctions with China (ie relax them) to cut them off of Iranian oil, then Iran ceases to exist. I think China would gladly throw Iran under the bus if they can still sell stuff to Americans.

    Reply
  35. yes and it’s not just India. Japan and Korea. China of course doesn’t care about sanctions. Now if Trump can use the trade sanctions with China (ie relax them) to cut them off of Iranian oil then Iran ceases to exist. I think China would gladly throw Iran under the bus if they can still sell stuff to Americans.

    Reply
  36. Agree. For India, it’s very inelastic. They need the oil whatever the price. If India needs to double their oil import spend, it’s an impact of about €90bn additional, or about 7% of gdp. They managed around this in 2008 (with enough fx reserves), but any long lasting price jump I think will be pretty severe on the capital account, currency, and other demand. It will all boil down to how fast Iranian oil can be replaced, which won’t happen overnight. I suspect by late 2019. With over 400bn in fx reserves and oil being sourced (slowly), elsewhere, it seems they can take the hit. For now.

    Reply
  37. Agree. For India it’s very inelastic. They need the oil whatever the price. If India needs to double their oil import spend it’s an impact of about €90bn additional or about 7{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of gdp. They managed around this in 2008 (with enough fx reserves) but any long lasting price jump I think will be pretty severe on the capital account currency and other demand. It will all boil down to how fast Iranian oil can be replaced which won’t happen overnight. I suspect by late 2019. With over 400bn in fx reserves and oil being sourced (slowly) elsewhere it seems they can take the hit. For now.”

    Reply
  38. No I disagree. If oil goes up (due to say Iran being cut off) then the Saudis ramp up production while prices go up to say $90 a barrel.

    In the meantime:
    Trump states that produce oil (TX, ND, OK, OH, PA, etc) rake in serious $$$$.
    Hillary states that hate oil (CA, NY, etc) just pay more.

    High oil prices aren’t quite the drag they once were for the US economy. The real economic picture is complex. If oil prices spike upwards for four months then frackers lock in those prices and go on an expansion binge.

    Reply
  39. The US will not keep global prices down. If oil soars to $150/barrel because war breaks out between Iran and SA in the ME, it will only take a Presidential Tweet to reimpose the US export ban, effectively bifurcating global oil prices between what the US pays (around $75/barrel) and the catastrophic prices the rest of the oil…and especially nations like India and the rest of Asia will pay.

    Reply
  40. The US will not keep global prices down. If oil soars to $150/barrel because war breaks out between Iran and SA in the ME it will only take a Presidential Tweet to reimpose the US export ban effectively bifurcating global oil prices between what the US pays (around $75/barrel) and the catastrophic prices the rest of the oil…and especially nations like India and the rest of Asia will pay.

    Reply
  41. Asia pays the highest premium of oil right now. It will only get worse. And getting cut off from SWIFT will damage India horrendously.

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  42. Asia pays the highest premium of oil right now. It will only get worse.And getting cut off from SWIFT will damage India horrendously.

    Reply
  43. Sure. If by ‘cheap’ you mean Indian banks would be cut off from SWIFT – something not even the Chinese are risking right now. Not cheap at all, it seems.

    Reply
  44. Sure. If by ‘cheap’ you mean Indian banks would be cut off from SWIFT – something not even the Chinese are risking right now.Not cheap at all it seems.

    Reply
  45. …which provides ENORMOUS leverage to the US. Why, Trump can do things like coerce India into more riskier confrontations with China than it is comfortable with doing at this time. Oh yeah! Loving this.

    Reply
  46. …which provides ENORMOUS leverage to the US.Why Trump can do things like coerce India into more riskier confrontations with China than it is comfortable with doing at this time. Oh yeah! Loving this.

    Reply
  47. not so sure, not all oil is the same. The US refineries aren’t geared for US oil which is why we import it from Canada/KSA etc, more than we export. It would mean a $150/bbl would hit US shores immediately, and at the pump. Remember 2008. It’s in US interests to keep prices low. The trick now is to do this while trying to replace Iran’s production, not an easy task so a short term price spike. Iran will be crushed, today Japan announced they are cutting off Iranian imports. Now it’s just China left.

    Reply
  48. yes, and it’s not just India. Japan and Korea. China, of course, doesn’t care about sanctions. Now, if Trump can use the trade sanctions with China (ie relax them) to cut them off of Iranian oil, then Iran ceases to exist. I think China would gladly throw Iran under the bus if they can still sell stuff to Americans.

    Reply
  49. Agree. For India, it’s very inelastic. They need the oil whatever the price. If India needs to double their oil import spend, it’s an impact of about €90bn additional, or about 7% of gdp. They managed around this in 2008 (with enough fx reserves), but any long lasting price jump I think will be pretty severe on the capital account, currency, and other demand. It will all boil down to how fast Iranian oil can be replaced, which won’t happen overnight. I suspect by late 2019. With over 400bn in fx reserves and oil being sourced (slowly), elsewhere, it seems they can take the hit. For now.

    Reply
  50. The US will not keep global prices down. If oil soars to $150/barrel because war breaks out between Iran and SA in the ME, it will only take a Presidential Tweet to reimpose the US export ban, effectively bifurcating global oil prices between what the US pays (around $75/barrel) and the catastrophic prices the rest of the oil…and especially nations like India and the rest of Asia will pay.

    Reply
  51. …which provides ENORMOUS leverage to the US.

    Why, Trump can do things like coerce India into more riskier confrontations with China than it is comfortable with doing at this time.

    Oh yeah! Loving this.

    Reply
  52. what are you talking about? Iran is selling at a PREMIUM to Asia, ABOVE market levels. Read the latest quotes from NIOC. Destinations to Europe, for example, are selling at a DISCOUNT, but they can’t sell it. But none of this matters because India isn’t buying from them at any price.

    Reply
  53. what are you talking about? Iran is selling at a PREMIUM to Asia ABOVE market levels. Read the latest quotes from NIOC. Destinations to Europe for example are selling at a DISCOUNT but they can’t sell it. But none of this matters because India isn’t buying from them at any price.

    Reply
  54. The short answer is: oil imports matter, but not that much. A annual $10 increase in crude prices cuts about 0.2-0.3% off of annual GDP growth (according to RBI). A $200/bbl price will hurt (everyone), a $75/bbl won’t. I figure increased production, especially from the US and Saudi in 2019 will keep prices from going nuts.

    Reply
  55. The short answer is: oil imports matter but not that much. A annual $10 increase in crude prices cuts about 0.2-0.3{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} off of annual GDP growth (according to RBI). A $200/bbl price will hurt (everyone) a $75/bbl won’t. I figure increased production especially from the US and Saudi in 2019 will keep prices from going nuts.

    Reply
  56. cheap Iran oil”. How (sanctions), and at what price is “cheap”? The little oil Iran can export right now is priced at a premium (NIOC quote about $1.20 above Gulf benchmark for light as of yesterday).

    Reply
  57. cheap Iran oil””. How (sanctions)”””” and at what price is “”””cheap””””? The little oil Iran can export right now is priced at a premium (NIOC quote about $1.20 above Gulf benchmark for light as of yesterday).”””

    Reply
  58. what are you talking about? Iran is selling at a PREMIUM to Asia, ABOVE market levels. Read the latest quotes from NIOC. Destinations to Europe, for example, are selling at a DISCOUNT, but they can’t sell it. But none of this matters because India isn’t buying from them at any price.

    Reply
  59. The short answer is: oil imports matter, but not that much. A annual $10 increase in crude prices cuts about 0.2-0.3% off of annual GDP growth (according to RBI). A $200/bbl price will hurt (everyone), a $75/bbl won’t. I figure increased production, especially from the US and Saudi in 2019 will keep prices from going nuts.

    Reply
  60. “cheap Iran oil”. How (sanctions), and at what price is “cheap”? The little oil Iran can export right now is priced at a premium (NIOC quote about $1.20 above Gulf benchmark for light as of yesterday).

    Reply

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