Can India keep fast economic growth despite foreign oil dependence and high costs?

India imported 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in June, an increase of 10 percent from a year earlier, according to data from shipping and industry sources, with the top three suppliers Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran making up nearly half of imports.

India is the third largest oil importer after China and the USA. India will be rapidly passing the USA for second place in oil imports. The US is continuing to grow its oil production which will reduce its need for imported oil.

India's forecasted oil imports
5.2 million barrels per day in 2019 
5.8 million barrels per day in 2020
6.3 million barrels per day in 2021
7.0 million barrels per day in 2022

India’s crude oil import bill increased 76% to $10.2 billion in July as compared to the corresponding month a year ago, widening trade deficit and adding pressure on the fiscal deficit for the month.

Any recession could delay the growth in oil imports by about one year.

In June, India imported about 592,800 bpd of Iranian oil, a decline of about 16% from May, as refiners began cutting oil purchases under pressure from U.S. sanctions.

India’s monthly oil imports from Iran surged by about 30% to a record 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, as state refiners’ intake surged ahead of U.S. sanctions in November.

India will buy 6 million barrels of US oil from November to January. This will offset some oil India would have imported from Iran. Saudi Arabia and other countries will increase production to cover the sanction limited Iranian oil.

The recent surge in international oil prices had resulted in worsening of the current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit for the domestic economy apart from an inflated petroleum subsidy and high inflation.

India imports over 82% of its crude oil.

India reported that GDP growth in the first quarter was 8.2% which was the best level in two years.

India’s manufacturing increased by 13% in the first quarter.

The Rupee was at its lowest level at 71 Rupee to 1 US dollar. Inflation is at high levels.

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