China’s future of huge urban areas and dominant ecommerce

China’s first quarter 2018 retail sales were 10% more than the US level. China was at $1.436 trillion and the US was at $1.306 trillion. China’s overall retail is growing at 9% per year or double the US rate.

China’s ecommerce is growing at 21% per year.

China Second phase of Urbanization

China is creating 19 supercity clusters by strengthening the links between existing urban centres. The supercities will have about 800 million people and more than 80% of the country’s GDP in 2030.

287 million people have moved from low-income agriculture to higher-income city industries, the largest population transfer in history.

Another 40 million people will migrate to cities by 2020 and the productivity gap will have more than halved since 2000.

China is now entering a second phase of urbanization. The current five-year plan identifies 19 city clusters with 11 of them accounting for a tenth of China’s land area, a third of the population, and two-thirds of national GDP.

The top three urban areas are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (known as Jing-Jin-Ji), the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai area) and the Greater Bay Area (9 cities -including Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macau). They account for 36% of China’s total GDP but just 2.8% of its land area and 18% of the national population.

Beijing will be a national political, cultural, international communication and scientific innovation centre. Tianjin will become a regional logistics and transportation hub while Hebei will take on non-essential functions – mostly factories and retail markets – from Beijing.

The Yangtze River Delta is a key node of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The transport network, including railways, highways and the Yangtze waterway, has expanded rapidly over 10 years with Shanghai as the hub linking other urban areas. The target is to boost the region’s contribution to national GDP from 12.6 per cent to 21 per cent by 2020 with USD30 billion invested in building a 5G telecoms network by 2022.

The Greater Bay Area, further south, includes Shenzhen – ranked second only to Beijing among China’s most innovative cities. Its unique advantages lie in its integration with Hong Kong and Macao – both service-driven economies. More than 50% of China’s international patent applications are from this area.

48 thoughts on “China’s future of huge urban areas and dominant ecommerce”

  1. Multilateral declarations have been quite common since the 20th century” NO President has DECLARED war. Period. “But either way its a distinction without difference” No, it isn’t. You said one thing and it is proven fact it was flat out false. Period.

    Reply
  2. Multilateral declarations have been quite common since the 20th century””NO President has DECLARED war. Period.””””But either way its a distinction without difference””””No”””” it isn’t. You said one thing and it is proven fact it was flat out false. Period.”””

    Reply
  3. “Multilateral declarations have been quite common since the 20th century”

    NO President has DECLARED war. Period.

    “But either way its a distinction without difference”

    No, it isn’t. You said one thing and it is proven fact it was flat out false. Period.

    Reply
  4. Multilateral declarations have been quite common since the 20th century. But either way its a distinction without difference, as my points are correct in any case

    Reply
  5. Multilateral declarations have been quite common since the 20th century. But either way its a distinction without difference as my points are correct in any case

    Reply
  6. Though you have to admit the land of the BANANA NIMBY’s will never have an arcology, while the chinese might be able to at least try. They sorta did one by accident, and Hong Kong is also increasingly becoming a warren of underground structures as well on top of the large residential skyscrapers.

    Reply
  7. Though you have to admit the land of the BANANA NIMBY’s will never have an arcology while the chinese might be able to at least try. They sorta did one by accident and Hong Kong is also increasingly becoming a warren of underground structures as well on top of the large residential skyscrapers.

    Reply
  8. Who’s Lucca? don’t know the guy. I suspect he’s some guy with similar views but I am not him. I can assure you that I am just a random, open minded objective analyst. It is not really that hard to do research in the web nowadays if you want. There’s so much info supporting China’s rise as a fact. I am not some american or chinas patriot, I am simply an analyst of web available data and trends. US is still strong and will be for some time but China caught up in recent years in hi tech industry and now she’s leapfrogging the west in almost every industry imaginable very fast, This process is increasing in speed on a monthly basis.

    Reply
  9. Who’s Lucca? don’t know the guy.I suspect he’s some guy with similar views but I am not him.I can assure you that I am just a random open minded objective analyst. It is not really that hard to do research in the web nowadays if you want. There’s so much info supporting China’s rise as a fact. I am not some american or chinas patriot I am simply an analyst of web available data and trends. US is still strong and will be for some time but China caught up in recent years in hi tech industry and now she’s leapfrogging the west in almost every industry imaginable very fast This process is increasing in speed on a monthly basis.

    Reply
  10. hahahahah…the Peterson Institute of International Economics — once called “the locker room of the Team Globalization and Free Trade cheering squad” – receives Confucius Institute funding from China, too. Most US think tanks and universities do, btw. More on the Confucius Institutes Program here: bit.ly/2puP01O

    Reply
  11. hahahahah…the Peterson Institute of International Economics — once called the locker room of the Team Globalization and Free Trade cheering squad”” – receives Confucius Institute funding from China”” too. Most US think tanks and universities do”” btw.More on the Confucius Institutes Program here: bit.ly/2puP01O”””

    Reply
  12. US Presidents don’t declare war. Not one has ever done so. Fought undeclared wars, yes. But that isn’t the same thing as ‘declaring war’. Only Congress can declare war. And every time the US has declared war, it was by an Act of Congress. Oh, and ALL declarations of war are UNILATERAL acts by the nations that so declare such state exists. So you were wrong on using the term ‘unilaterally’ the way you did, too. And China invaded both Vietnam and India in undeclared wars, too. Then there are all those ‘volunteers’ that streamed into North Korea to bail them out in the Korean War. If you are going to wu mau a lot of BS, try to have the BS not be so obvious, Godfree.

    Reply
  13. US Presidents don’t declare war. Not one has ever done so. Fought undeclared wars yes. But that isn’t the same thing as ‘declaring war’. Only Congress can declare war. And every time the US has declared war it was by an Act of Congress.Oh and ALL declarations of war are UNILATERAL acts by the nations that so declare such state exists. So you were wrong on using the term ‘unilaterally’ the way you did too.And China invaded both Vietnam and India in undeclared wars too. Then there are all those ‘volunteers’ that streamed into North Korea to bail them out in the Korean War.If you are going to wu mau a lot of BS try to have the BS not be so obvious Godfree.

    Reply
  14. Easily China’s GDP PPP this year is already larger than $30 trillion and real nominal GDP is around the same levels as US in 2018. USA is producing more imaginary GDP like meaningless law transactions, wasting resources on security, wasting money on military bases abroad and so on, while China is producing much more real things which you can touch and really improve poeples life and create real wealth for country. China is also creating now more knowledge for itself and for the world. It’s still in its second industrial revolution phase and at the same time huge parts of China are already in cutting edge post industrial economy phase.

    Reply
  15. EasilyChina’s GDP PPP this year is already larger than $30 trillion and real nominal GDP is around the same levels as US in 2018. USA is producing more imaginary GDP like meaningless law transactions wasting resources on security wasting money on military bases abroad and so on while China is producing much more real things which you can touch and really improve poeples life and create real wealth for country. China is also creating now more knowledge for itself and for the world. It’s still in its second industrial revolution phase and at the same time huge parts of China are already in cutting edge post industrial economy phase.

    Reply
  16. Though you have to admit the land of the BANANA NIMBY’s will never have an arcology, while the chinese might be able to at least try. They sorta did one by accident, and Hong Kong is also increasingly becoming a warren of underground structures as well on top of the large residential skyscrapers.

    Reply
  17. Who’s Lucca? don’t know the guy.
    I suspect he’s some guy with similar views but I am not him.
    I can assure you that I am just a random, open minded objective analyst. It is not really that hard to do research in the web nowadays if you want. There’s so much info supporting China’s rise as a fact. I am not some american or chinas patriot, I am simply an analyst of web available data and trends. US is still strong and will be for some time but China caught up in recent years in hi tech industry and now she’s leapfrogging the west in almost every industry imaginable very fast, This process is increasing in speed on a monthly basis.

    Reply
  18. hahahahah…the Peterson Institute of International Economics — once called “the locker room of the Team Globalization and Free Trade cheering squad” – receives Confucius Institute funding from China, too.

    Most US think tanks and universities do, btw.

    More on the Confucius Institutes Program here:

    bit.ly/2puP01O

    Reply
  19. US Presidents don’t declare war. Not one has ever done so. Fought undeclared wars, yes. But that isn’t the same thing as ‘declaring war’.

    Only Congress can declare war. And every time the US has declared war, it was by an Act of Congress.

    Oh, and ALL declarations of war are UNILATERAL acts by the nations that so declare such state exists. So you were wrong on using the term ‘unilaterally’ the way you did, too.

    And China invaded both Vietnam and India in undeclared wars, too. Then there are all those ‘volunteers’ that streamed into North Korea to bail them out in the Korean War.

    If you are going to wu mau a lot of BS, try to have the BS not be so obvious, Godfree.

    Reply
  20. The Peterson Institute of International Economics estimated that China’s GDP is twenty-seven percent bigger and on track to be fifty percent larger than America’s by 2021.

    Reply
  21. The Peterson Institute of International Economics estimated that China’s GDP is twenty-seven percent bigger and on track to be fifty percent larger than America’s by 2021.

    Reply
  22. Heavy handed? Heavy handed? Come, come. If China’s government were heavy handed they’d do things like – declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300,000 national security letters, administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture, kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. – direct the military to detain, arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in a heavy-handed state would be limited by – secretly banning 50,000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation – imprisoning 2,000,000 people witout trial – executing 2,000 people each year prior to arrest. In a real an heavy-handed state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition No Chinese government, including Mao’s, has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.

    Reply
  23. Heavy handed? Heavy handed? Come come. If China’s government were heavy handed they’d do things like – declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300000 national security letters administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. – direct the military to detain arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in a heavy-handed state would be limited by – secretly banning 50000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation– imprisoning 2000000 people witout trial– executing 2000 people each year prior to arrest.In a real an heavy-handed state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunitionNo Chinese government including Mao’s has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.”

    Reply
  24. Easily
    China’s GDP PPP this year is already larger than $30 trillion and real nominal GDP is around the same levels as US in 2018. USA is producing more imaginary GDP like meaningless law transactions, wasting resources on security, wasting money on military bases abroad and so on, while China is producing much more real things which you can touch and really improve poeples life and create real wealth for country. China is also creating now more knowledge for itself and for the world. It’s still in its second industrial revolution phase and at the same time huge parts of China are already in cutting edge post industrial economy phase.

    Reply
  25. Considering the heavy handedness of the government, it makes one wonder why they haven’t tried a proper planned variant of the Kowloon walled city, as a proper arcology design. Sufficient open design platform architecture would allow customization/updating of the interior to accommodate changes in interior use and internal mass transit…

    Reply
  26. Considering the heavy handedness of the government it makes one wonder why they haven’t tried a proper planned variant of the Kowloon walled city as a proper arcology design. Sufficient open design platform architecture would allow customization/updating of the interior to accommodate changes in interior use and internal mass transit…

    Reply
  27. Reading the numbers bouve, I wonder if China is really, as they write, below the US in GDP real terms. I try to suspect that China wants to show lower numbers than real for their GDP while the US bigger numbers The US govt wants to impress the stoppid majority while China wants to keep well quiet and take the leaad from the US as late as possible

    Reply
  28. Reading the numbers bouve I wonder if China is really as they write below the US in GDP real terms. I try to suspect that China wants to show lower numbers than real for their GDP while the US bigger numbers The US govt wants to impress the stoppid majority while China wants to keep well quiet and take the leaad from the US as late as possible

    Reply
  29. Heavy handed? Heavy handed? Come, come. If China’s government were heavy handed they’d do things like
    – declare war unilaterally and frequently;
    – issue 300,000 national security letters, administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served;
    – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions.
    –torture, kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will.
    – direct the military to detain, arrest and secretly execute American citizens.

    Personal freedom in a heavy-handed state would be limited by
    – secretly banning 50,000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation
    – imprisoning 2,000,000 people witout trial
    – executing 2,000 people each year prior to arrest.

    In a real an heavy-handed state there would be
    – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA;
    – SWAT team raiding homes;
    – shootings of unarmed citizens by police;
    – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance;
    – endless wars;
    – out-of-control spending;
    – militarized police;
    –roadside strip searches;
    – roving TSA sweeps;
    – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans;
    – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions;
    – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition

    No Chinese government, including Mao’s, has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.

    Reply
  30. Considering the heavy handedness of the government, it makes one wonder why they haven’t tried a proper planned variant of the Kowloon walled city, as a proper arcology design. Sufficient open design platform architecture would allow customization/updating of the interior to accommodate changes in interior use and internal mass transit…

    Reply
  31. Reading the numbers bouve, I wonder if China is really, as they write, below the US in GDP real terms.
    I try to suspect that China wants to show lower numbers than real for their GDP while the US bigger numbers
    The US govt wants to impress the stoppid majority while China wants to keep well quiet and take the leaad from the US as late as possible

    Reply

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