India’s emissions and purchasing power GDP

British Petroleum publishes an annual energy and economics report for all countries. The 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, indicated the world reached a new peak in CO2 emissions.

Asia Pacific is now responsible for nearly 50% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
Over the last ten years, China has added 2 billion tons of CO2 emissions per year. India added nearly 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions per year. The Rest of Asia added 700 million tons of CO2 per year.

India’s emissions have tracked closely to its growing purchasing power GDP. I used the ratio of the purchasing power parity GDP from 2008 divided by the purchasing power parity GDP from 2007 and multiplied the BP emissions for India in 2007 to predict the BP emissions for India in 2008. This calculated emissions matched very closely up to the reported emissions for 2017.

India’s BP emissions are about 20% less than what the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) reports for India’s emissions.

Under current policy projections, greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) are projected to reach a level of 3.2–3.3 GtCO2e in 2020 and 4.5–4.6 GtCO2e in 2030. This is a 53–57% increase in emissions from 2010 levels by 2020 and a more than doubling of 2010 levels by 2030.

India ratified the Paris Agreement. India made the following promises.

* To reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33%–35% by 2030 below 2005 levels;
* To increase the share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030, with help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF);
* To create an additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

Nextbigfuture notes that the growth of 2.5 to 3 billion tons of new forest would offset about one year worth of India’s current emissions.

The Indian Government is considering long-term growth strategies over the period 2030–2045 that would result in a decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth. In 2017, it commissioned three research institutes (the Energy Research Institute, the Observer Research Foundation and the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy) to develop these long-term low-carbon growth strategies. The results of these studies will be published in 2018.

The CAT methodology for assessing and rating focuses on CO2 and other GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion, industry, agriculture and waste sources which account for 93% of global GHG emissions in 2010. CO2 and other GHG emissions from land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which account for around 7% of global GHG emissions.

The growth of energy and emissions is about 2-4% less than the Purchasing power GDP growth rate each year.

Year    GDP PPP	BP Emissions    Calc Emissions   GDP %    Emiss %
2007	4111	1366			
2008	4355	1467         1447       5.94          7.39%
2009	4760	1594         1603	9.30%         8.66%
2010	5312	1662         1779	11.6%         4.27%
2011	5782	1737         1809	8.85%         4.51%
2012	6211	1851         1866	7.42%         6.56%
2013	6724	1931         2004	8.26%         4.32%
2014	7336	2085         2107	9.10%         7.98%
2015	8003	2146         2275	9.09%         2.93%
2016	8705	2251         2334	8.77%         4.89%
2017	9459	2344         2446	8.66%         4.13%
2018	10385	2470         2573	9.79%         5.38%
2019	11437	2610         2720	10.13%        5.67%
2020	12584	2750         2872	10.03%        5.36%
2021	13861	2780         3029	10.15%        1.09%
2022	15248	2900         3058	10.01%        4.32%
2023	16785	3000         3192	10.08%        3.45%
2024	18128	3120         3240	8.00%         4.00%
2025	19578	3240         3370	8.00%         3.85%
2026	21144	3360         3499	8.00%         3.70%
2027	22836	3480         3629	8.00%         3.57%
2028	24663	3650         3758	8.00%         4.89%
2029	26636	3800         3942	8.00%         4.11%
2030	28767	3940         4104	8.00%         3.68%

BP method of CO2 emissions calculation

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