OPEC said world oil consumption will reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) later in 2018. This milestone level will be reached sooner than previously forecast.
Mohammad Barkindo told an energy conference in South Africa’s Cape Town that a stable environment was needed to encourage oil industry investment to meet the rising demand.
Barkindo said oil industry confidence was returning and OPEC was exploring ways of institutionalizing cooperation between OPEC and its non-OPEC allies on their production levels.
The International Energy Agency raised its estimate of world oil demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million b/d from 1.4 million b/d, anticipating the impact of price rises will peter out, and highlighted robust non-OPEC oil output growth.
IEA raised its estimate for growth in non-OPEC oil output next year to 1.9 million b/d, from 1.8 million b/d in its previous report. Growth will be led by the US, with a 1.25 million b/d increase, Brazil with an extra 350,000 b/d, and Canada and Russia each increasing output by 210,000 b/d.
China, India and the developing world remain the big growth drivers. The rest of the world’s economy is firing on all cylinders again, pulling harder on the world’s oil fields.
There are more commonalities with past up-cycles. Oil inventories and spare productive capacity are relatively thin. Upstream investment is lagging downstream consumption growth.
Ten to 15 years ago, substitutes for oil were far from viable. Today, electric vehicles are emerging; yet despite a growing adoption trend, wheels being turned by batteries won’t be displacing meaningful oil barrels any time soon. So, the lack of substitutes is another recurring theme.
Oil consumers have crossed the psychological 100-million-barrel-a-day marker. At a notional US$60/B, that’s a US$2.2 trillion per year business. So, going forward, the trillion-dollar questions are: How will consumption be supported from below ground, and at what price? Because it really is different this time.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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do you wear black leather and engineer’s boots?
As of 2017, 200,000 acres actually disturbed.
Quite a difference from your “millions’, isn’t it?
Option 3 for posting links worked. The other two appeared blank.
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I still have my 2006 Prius, and won’t be getting rid of it any time soon. Over 100K miles and original batteries, that’s pretty normal, despite all the nay-sayers years ago. (It’s actually my son’s car now, I drive a gas-guzzling Mazda 3 that “only” gets 36 mpg average on my commute. The engine keeps running even at stop lights, how wasteful!)
I still have my 2006 Prius and won’t be getting rid of it any time soon. Over 100K miles and original batteries that’s pretty normal despite all the nay-sayers years ago.(It’s actually my son’s car now I drive a gas-guzzling Mazda 3 that only”” gets 36 mpg average on my commute. The engine keeps running even at stop lights”””” how wasteful!)”””
A link to Canada tar/oil sands, from the pollution and climate change viewpoint (first link that came up when I wanted to double-check the “millions of acres” claim)…. not sure of the best way to post links yet, allow for some experimentation. Test 1: grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/ Test 2: https://grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/ Test 3: grist dot org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands
A link to Canada tar/oil sands from the pollution and climate change viewpoint (first link that came up when I wanted to double-check the millions of acres”” claim)…. not sure of the best way to post links yet”””” allow for some experimentation.Test 1: grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/Test 2: https://grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/Test 3: grist dot org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands”””
dissent” I assume, but could be a Freudian slip.
dissent”” I assume”””” but could be a Freudian slip.”””
EVs aren’t that common to make a big difference. Since the average car on the road is 11 years old, it takes a long time for the overall picture to change, even if new car sales jump to 10% electric. (EV sales are up nearly 50% this year, largely due to Tesla Model 3 availability, but still well under 2% of total new car sales in the U.S.). Also, oil is used for a lot of things other than passenger vehicles, although that is a good percentage of it. From roofing tar, pavement, jet fuel, heating fuel to women’s perfume.
EVs aren’t that common to make a big difference. Since the average car on the road is 11 years old it takes a long time for the overall picture to change even if new car sales jump to 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} electric. (EV sales are up nearly 50{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} this year largely due to Tesla Model 3 availability but still well under 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of total new car sales in the U.S.). Also oil is used for a lot of things other than passenger vehicles although that is a good percentage of it. From roofing tar pavement jet fuel heating fuel to women’s perfume.
I was in that camp. We have indeed run low on conventional oil. But what I didn’t see coming was the viability of non-conventional oil, fracking and horizontal drilling, which opened up a lot of oil that wasn’t previously commercially available (the definition of proven resources). We also didn’t expect that Canada would be willing to bulldoze millions of acres of forest and blow their Kyoto promises out of the water to develop the tar sands fields. But the allure of all that oil at $100/barrel was too much to resist. Fracking, by the way, was developed largely from investment by the U.S. government – another subsidy by the government to big oil and big coal. It did really help to maintain our standard of living, but at what cost to the next generation? We should spend an equal amount on green energy and pollution controls.
I was in that camp. We have indeed run low on conventional oil. But what I didn’t see coming was the viability of non-conventional oil fracking and horizontal drilling which opened up a lot of oil that wasn’t previously commercially available (the definition of proven resources). We also didn’t expect that Canada would be willing to bulldoze millions of acres of forest and blow their Kyoto promises out of the water to develop the tar sands fields. But the allure of all that oil at $100/barrel was too much to resist.Fracking by the way was developed largely from investment by the U.S. government – another subsidy by the government to big oil and big coal. It did really help to maintain our standard of living but at what cost to the next generation? We should spend an equal amount on green energy and pollution controls.
I still have my 2006 Prius, and won’t be getting rid of it any time soon.
Over 100K miles and original batteries, that’s pretty normal, despite all the nay-sayers years ago.
(It’s actually my son’s car now, I drive a gas-guzzling Mazda 3 that “only” gets 36 mpg average on my commute. The engine keeps running even at stop lights, how wasteful!)
A link to Canada tar/oil sands, from the pollution and climate change viewpoint (first link that came up when I wanted to double-check the “millions of acres” claim)…. not sure of the best way to post links yet, allow for some experimentation.
Test 1: grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/
Test 2: https://grist.org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands/
Test 3: grist dot org/article/this-could-be-the-end-of-canadian-tar-sands
“dissent” I assume, but could be a Freudian slip.
EVs aren’t that common to make a big difference. Since the average car on the road is 11 years old, it takes a long time for the overall picture to change, even if new car sales jump to 10% electric. (EV sales are up nearly 50% this year, largely due to Tesla Model 3 availability, but still well under 2% of total new car sales in the U.S.).
Also, oil is used for a lot of things other than passenger vehicles, although that is a good percentage of it. From roofing tar, pavement, jet fuel, heating fuel to women’s perfume.
I was in that camp. We have indeed run low on conventional oil. But what I didn’t see coming was the viability of non-conventional oil, fracking and horizontal drilling, which opened up a lot of oil that wasn’t previously commercially available (the definition of proven resources). We also didn’t expect that Canada would be willing to bulldoze millions of acres of forest and blow their Kyoto promises out of the water to develop the tar sands fields. But the allure of all that oil at $100/barrel was too much to resist.
Fracking, by the way, was developed largely from investment by the U.S. government – another subsidy by the government to big oil and big coal. It did really help to maintain our standard of living, but at what cost to the next generation? We should spend an equal amount on green energy and pollution controls.
Last I checked their is a peak oil Facebook page. It is almost surrealistic in the way that they are still promoting peak oil. And as with most places like that, decent will get you booted out.
Last I checked their is a peak oil Facebook page. It is almost surrealistic in the way that they are still promoting peak oil. And as with most places like that decent will get you booted out.
This is where I wish I could post my peak oil poster, “proving” that oil production would collapse by 2008, and that by 2018 we’ll be looting through the burnt out cities for old cans of dogfood and driving supercharged 2 door falcons. To be fair I do drive a 2 door falcon.
This is where I wish I could post my peak oil poster proving”” that oil production would collapse by 2008″””” and that by 2018 we’ll be looting through the burnt out cities for old cans of dogfood and driving supercharged 2 door falcons.To be fair I do drive a 2 door falcon.”””
Price will be stable since higher price will fuel the EV and hybrid car market. It is peak oil consumption or pretty near it. The only thing that is feeding it is the rise in the Chinese and Indian economies.
Price will be stable since higher price will fuel the EV and hybrid car market. It is peak oil consumption or pretty near it. The only thing that is feeding it is the rise in the Chinese and Indian economies.
This is still less than half the growth rate than the pre 2008 rates. The car industry has made some meaningful strides in increasing fuel eficiency and electrification, albeit not enough.
This is still less than half the growth rate than the pre 2008 rates. The car industry has made some meaningful strides in increasing fuel eficiency and electrification albeit not enough.
Last I checked their is a peak oil Facebook page. It is almost surrealistic in the way that they are still promoting peak oil. And as with most places like that, decent will get you booted out.
This is where I wish I could post my peak oil poster, “proving” that oil production would collapse by 2008, and that by 2018 we’ll be looting through the burnt out cities for old cans of dogfood and driving supercharged 2 door falcons.
To be fair I do drive a 2 door falcon.
Price will be stable since higher price will fuel the EV and hybrid car market. It is peak oil consumption or pretty near it. The only thing that is feeding it is the rise in the Chinese and Indian economies.
This is still less than half the growth rate than the pre 2008 rates. The car industry has made some meaningful strides in increasing fuel eficiency and electrification, albeit not enough.