India is forecast to have a purchasing power parity GDP of $16.8 trillion in 2023. China is forecast to be $37 trillion in 2023 and the USA $24.5 trillion in 2023. Japan would be number four at $6.3 trillion and Germany at $5.2 trillion. India’s 2023 PPP GDP dominance would be about the level China had in 2014.
India should pass Japan in nominal GDP around 2026. China passed Japan around 2009 on a nominal GDP basis.
India has been close to or below military spending of Russia and Saudi Arabia and is also passing Germany and the UK. With 7-8% GDP growth and with talk about increasing towards 3% of GDP spending on the military. India will clearly be able to sustain a world number three military spending level. Each year will see India get a wider margin of spending over the fourth and fifth place military spending countries.
By 2025-2027, India will likely double its military spending to about $120-130 billion (in current dollars).
India’s weakness is that India has been dependent upon other countries like Russia for military technology. India needs to improve technology and manufacturing in most industries.
Sustaining a military spending level that is double and then triple countries like UK, Germany and Russia will see a matching level of military modernization and power around 2030.
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