Will India’s economy be $5 or $10 trillion in 2030?

India’s economy is currently at $2.6 trillion on an exchange rate basis.

Hong Kong Shanghai Bank and forecasters agree that India will surpass Japan to become the number three economy in the world.

India’s government has a target of a $10 trillion economy by 2030.

The strength of the US dollar relative to the Indian Rupee will be the key factor.
India will likely continue to grow at about 5-9% annual GDP growth.
There were periods where the Rupee currency has dropped for extended periods of time relative to the dollar. India’s nominal exchange rate GDP was flat from 2011 through 2013 because of the exchange rate.

India was projected by the IMF to reach 2.8 trillion in 2018 but the Rupee has dropped from 66 to the US dollar to 72 to the US dollar in 2018.

The Indian Rupee has been depreciating at an average rate of about 3.5% per year.
In the 1950s it was 3.4 Rupees to one US dollar.
In the 1960s it was 7 Rupees to one US dollar.

India still has inflation in the 3 to 7% range.

It is not unusual for India’s currency to move up or down 20% in one year.

India ranks about 80th in corruption according to Transparency International. India has a lot of needed financial and institutional reform. Modi has implemented some reforms.

It does not appear like India will triple energy production by 2030 or build out infrastructure at the rate needed for a $10 trillion economy.

The likely range for India’s economy (nominal GDP) is $4-9 trillion in 2030. The most likely range is $5 to 7 trillion.

Russia’s nominal GDP almost dropped in half from 2013 to 2016 because of oil prices, weak economy and weak currency.

99 thoughts on “Will India’s economy be $5 or $10 trillion in 2030?”

  1. ahh i see… have you abandoned 7/11s in favor of trailer-trash hangouts where people praise trump and denounce vaccines ?

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  2. Yes, but was around 30 to 35 percent of world economy for 1800 years ( 1 AD – 1800 AD) . Thanks to being a British colony its lost heavily .

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  3. India today has a lower GDP per capita than Africa. The only countries poorer in the world are various failed African states. Since becoming an independent country over 70 years ago, India still has not reached Italy’s GDP per capita… from waaay back in the Renaissance era. How many hundreds of millions of Indians suffered and died from poverty under their Hindi leadership? Guess. I know the answer and it ain’t pretty (closer to one billion people than 0). By 2030, India should reach today’s Indonesian or Filipino GDP per capita and that is under best case scenarios not including the rising ethnic strife and social chaos in a country ridden with caste violence and Hindutva supremacy, rape, beef lynchings, separatist movements (Kashmir etc.), lack of necessary infrastructure, stagnating socioeconomic advancement, rising global warming and water scarcity, increasing homicide/crime from urbanization, incompetent politicians with inane policies like demonetization. Do your own objective research on India’s future and stop believing in farcical ultimatums spun from fantasies ie. India becoming a superpower.

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  4. “Making a deal around the Dollar to Iran” (paraphrased) is a dangerous course of action for India. What does she really have to gain? Oh, sure: the intense trade of a country that has been ostracized by The Eagle for continuing to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons technology. Oh, that makes sense. And of course, seein’ as Old Trump has already declared that countries looking to do an end-run around Iran’s sanctions will be in turn sanctioned … India looks to LOSE a lot of export potential to the rest of the world. Will the bump-up with Iran be worth it? Hard to say. Thing is, I expect at some point that the Iranians will pull some military-espionage stunts. The economic sanctions taken against them, both directly by the US and indirectly by the US’s influence on the US allies, also trading partners with India are significant. When Iran decides to pull unequivocal stunts, those doing trade with her outside sanctions are likely to really “feel the pain” of the reprisal. Which is what make sanctions such a sharp spear. Causing change through economic hardship. Anyway, that’s all just Economics 101. GoatGuy

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  5. A strong dollar at a time of rising oil prices is tough for oil dependent economies like India’s. It’s government should be looking to make a deal with nearby Iran, since dollar sanctions are making sales difficult for it, and it is looking for a way out. Surely, India has goods, services, or gold bullion it can export to support trade in the Rupee, Euro, Rial, or once again gold. After all, as JP Morgan stated, “gold is money, and nothing else”. This situation shows the shortsightedness of the US using the international status of the dollar as a weapon. The eventual movement away from the dollar for settlement of international debt will put the average US citizen in a world of hurt. I wonder who the politicians will blame it on, in their desperation to avoid responsibility for their actions.

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  6. “Making a deal around the Dollar to Iran” (paraphrased) is a dangerous course of action for India. What does she really have to gain?Oh sure: the intense trade of a country that has been ostracized by The Eagle for continuing to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons technology. Oh that makes sense. And of course seein’ as Old Trump has already declared that countries looking to do an end-run around Iran’s sanctions will be in turn sanctioned … India looks to LOSE a lot of export potential to the rest of the world. Will the bump-up with Iran be worth it? Hard to say. Thing is I expect at some point that the Iranians will pull some military-espionage stunts. The economic sanctions taken against them both directly by the US and indirectly by the US’s influence on the US allies also trading partners with India are significant. When Iran decides to pull unequivocal stunts those doing trade with her outside sanctions are likely to really feel the pain”” of the reprisal. Which is what make sanctions such a sharp spear. Causing change through economic hardship. Anyway”””” that’s all just Economics 101.GoatGuy”””””””

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  7. A strong dollar at a time of rising oil prices is tough for oil dependent economies like India’s. It’s government should be looking to make a deal with nearby Iran since dollar sanctions are making sales difficult for it and it is looking for a way out. Surely India has goods services or gold bullion it can export to support trade in the Rupee Euro Rial or once again gold. After all as JP Morgan stated gold is money”” and nothing else””.This situation shows the shortsightedness of the US using the international status of the dollar as a weapon. The eventual movement away from the dollar for settlement of international debt will put the average US citizen in a world of hurt. I wonder who the politicians will blame it on”””” in their desperation to avoid responsibility for their actions.”””

    Reply
  8. The top gdp for 2018 according to imf are us 20.5 , china 13.47, japan 5 trillion , germany 4 trillion , uk 2.8 trillion , france 2.79, india 2.689, rounding out the top 10 are brazil , italy..

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  9. The top gdp for 2018 according to imf areus 20.5 china 13.47 japan 5 trillion germany 4 trillion uk 2.8 trillion france 2.79 india 2.689rounding out the top 10 are brazil italy..

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  10. I was correct. Today (10.9.18) , the IMF released its Gdp projection for 2018, and China , according to IMF 2018 Gdp will be 13.47 trillion (I said above it would 13.5), and India didn’t surpass the UK , it even fell below France. France will be 2.794 trillion, UK 2.808 trillion and India 2.689 trillion. As said both the Yuan and Rupee have fallen dramatically this year and this is the reason.

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  11. I was correct. Today (10.9.18) the IMF released its Gdp projection for 2018 and China according to IMF 2018 Gdp will be 13.47 trillion (I said above it would 13.5) and India didn’t surpass the UK it even fell below France. France will be 2.794 trillion UK 2.808 trillion and India 2.689 trillion. As said both the Yuan and Rupee have fallen dramatically this year and this is the reason.

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  12. The top gdp for 2018 according to imf are
    us 20.5 , china 13.47, japan 5 trillion , germany 4 trillion , uk 2.8 trillion , france 2.79, india 2.689,
    rounding out the top 10 are brazil , italy..

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  13. I was correct. Today (10.9.18) , the IMF released its Gdp projection for 2018, and China , according to IMF 2018 Gdp will be 13.47 trillion (I said above it would 13.5), and India didn’t surpass the UK , it even fell below France. France will be 2.794 trillion, UK 2.808 trillion and India 2.689 trillion. As said both the Yuan and Rupee have fallen dramatically this year and this is the reason.

    Reply
  14. Hey Joe! You’re back! I had thought your Citizen Social Rating Score dropped so low that your internet access was cut off. Either that, or you were hit by one of those ‘awesome’ buses that float over regular traffic that Next Big China Didn’t Lie About…(Oh wait! They did lie! It was a total scam! My bad, Joe)

    Reply
  15. Hey Joe! You’re back! I had thought your Citizen Social Rating Score dropped so low that your internet access was cut off. Either that or you were hit by one of those ‘awesome’ buses that float over regular traffic that Next Big China Didn’t Lie About…(Oh wait! They did lie! It was a total scam! My bad Joe)

    Reply
  16. Hahahahahahah….you all wanna know what’s better to watch than a Pakistani and Indian go at it on NBF? In a 7/11 store. No, I am serious! They start this big argument right there in the store. And since both have broken English that they yell at each other with and they are talking fast (over each other) and are emotional, it gets even more broken. It is funny as hell! I’m not making this up. It’s happened three times for me (I don’t go to 7/11 much) over the last twenty years. Total crack up each and every time.

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  17. Hahahahahahah….you all wanna know what’s better to watch than a Pakistani and Indian go at it on NBF?In a 7/11 store. No I am serious! They start this big argument right there in the store. And since both have broken English that they yell at each other with and they are talking fast (over each other) and are emotional it gets even more broken. It is funny as hell! I’m not making this up. It’s happened three times for me (I don’t go to 7/11 much) over the last twenty years. Total crack up each and every time.

    Reply
  18. Donald Trump is not only ruining the Republican brand but he is also ruining his own. Don’t be surprised if they all end up in prison. The times are a changing.

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  19. Donald Trump is not only ruining the Republican brand but he is also ruining his own. Don’t be surprised if they all end up in prison. The times are a changing.

    Reply
  20. Hey Joe! You’re back!

    I had thought your Citizen Social Rating Score dropped so low that your internet access was cut off. Either that, or you were hit by one of those ‘awesome’ buses that float over regular traffic that Next Big China Didn’t Lie About…(Oh wait! They did lie! It was a total scam! My bad, Joe)

    Reply
  21. Hahahahahahah….you all wanna know what’s better to watch than a Pakistani and Indian go at it on NBF?

    In a 7/11 store.

    No, I am serious! They start this big argument right there in the store. And since both have broken English that they yell at each other with and they are talking fast (over each other) and are emotional, it gets even more broken.

    It is funny as hell!

    I’m not making this up. It’s happened three times for me (I don’t go to 7/11 much) over the last twenty years. Total crack up each and every time.

    Reply
  22. Of course. A Muslim indian. I was wondering how on Earth Israel suddenly appeared in the story, but you have probably hit the nail on the head there. We need another small and out of the way country to blame everything on. Russia isn’t quite small enough (yet). How about New Zealand? They can’t possibly be actually responsible for Tsunamis or inflation in Germany, so let’s blame them anyway. Fuqing Kiwis.

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  23. Of course. A Muslim indian. I was wondering how on Earth Israel suddenly appeared in the story but you have probably hit the nail on the head there.We need another small and out of the way country to blame everything on. Russia isn’t quite small enough (yet).How about New Zealand? They can’t possibly be actually responsible for Tsunamis or inflation in Germany so let’s blame them anyway. Fuqing Kiwis.

    Reply
  24. It is bizarre just how straight line (on a log scale) economic growth is. Barring a huge war or a communist revolution, economics just keep on plugging away at almost the same growth rate decade after decade. Your American cowboys setting up cattle drives from Texas to Kansas, Henry Ford establishing early production lines, General Electric assembling radio valve TVs, Steve Jobs building computers in his garage, Bitcoin miners and reality TV…. all grow the economy at a boring 2-4%.

    Reply
  25. It is bizarre just how straight line (on a log scale) economic growth is.Barring a huge war or a communist revolution economics just keep on plugging away at almost the same growth rate decade after decade.Your American cowboys setting up cattle drives from Texas to Kansas Henry Ford establishing early production lines General Electric assembling radio valve TVs Steve Jobs building computers in his garage Bitcoin miners and reality TV…. all grow the economy at a boring 2-4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}.

    Reply
  26. Of course. A Muslim indian. I was wondering how on Earth Israel suddenly appeared in the story, but you have probably hit the nail on the head there.

    We need another small and out of the way country to blame everything on. Russia isn’t quite small enough (yet).

    How about New Zealand? They can’t possibly be actually responsible for Tsunamis or inflation in Germany, so let’s blame them anyway. Fuqing Kiwis.

    Reply
  27. It is bizarre just how straight line (on a log scale) economic growth is.
    Barring a huge war or a communist revolution, economics just keep on plugging away at almost the same growth rate decade after decade.
    Your American cowboys setting up cattle drives from Texas to Kansas, Henry Ford establishing early production lines, General Electric assembling radio valve TVs, Steve Jobs building computers in his garage, Bitcoin miners and reality TV…. all grow the economy at a boring 2-4%.

    Reply
  28. Ridiculous orientalist claptrap spewed by a Wumao. Communism is an artificial imported ideology used by China’s elite to justify a One Party State, and it has now quickly shed its communist trappings in favor of naked imperialism, as personified by President-For-Life Xi Jinping, the new emperor. This increasingly far-flung expansionist empire is only surviving on stuntsmanship while suffering from overreach, and is doomed to go off the rails.The debt bubble and the hemorrhaging of its capital markets due to underlying trade vulnerabilities mean that China’s factories can easily become a rust belt. Look at how your much-vaunted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is suffering new setbacks and shrinking in scope every day. You’re the one sitting on a house of cards, so don’t lecture anyone else.

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  29. Ridiculous orientalist claptrap spewed by a Wumao. Communism is an artificial imported ideology used by China’s elite to justify a One Party State and it has now quickly shed its communist trappings in favor of naked imperialism as personified by President-For-Life Xi Jinping the new emperor. This increasingly far-flung expansionist empire is only surviving on stuntsmanship while suffering from overreach and is doomed to go off the rails.The debt bubble and the hemorrhaging of its capital markets due to underlying trade vulnerabilities mean that China’s factories can easily become a rust belt. Look at how your much-vaunted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is suffering new setbacks and shrinking in scope every day. You’re the one sitting on a house of cards so don’t lecture anyone else.

    Reply
  30. The rupee is depreciating, but inflation is under control. Rural disposable income and purchasing power have been rising significantly in recent years in a country where 95% of the population are rural – which shows that India’s economic rise does not have to be focused on urban areas exclusively, and that there can be a distributed approach.

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  31. The rupee is depreciating but inflation is under control. Rural disposable income and purchasing power have been rising significantly in recent years in a country where 95{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the population are rural – which shows that India’s economic rise does not have to be focused on urban areas exclusively and that there can be a distributed approach.

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  32. USA’s GDP is virtual, majority of it is made up by services or financial products, so USA’s GDP is like feit currency, it is like emperor’s new clothes, you can see but you cannot see it, while Chinese GDP is based on real production, tangable.

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  33. USA’s GDP is virtual majority of it is made up by services or financial products so USA’s GDP is like feit currency it is like emperor’s new clothes you can see but you cannot see it while Chinese GDP is based on real production tangable.

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  34. India will like USSR by 2050. “India” is a western imperialist creation to enslave the Asians against the will of the indigenous people of South Asia, it is illegitimate alien and harmful to the Asians. The current “India” is an extension of its former colonial master, British imperialist, spreading their toxic divide-and-conquer discord among the Asians, and land grab of its neighbours, Sikkim, GOA, Kashmir, Tibet South, Nagas, Manipur, Assamese, … Unless this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva get destroyed this toxic cancer will destroy all humanity with its regressive, inhuman and barbaric caste system. Half of the “India” is in armed struggles against this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva regime in New Delhi; by 2050 those freedom fighters will shake off the inhuman caste system yoke impose on them by the Hindutva.

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  35. India will like USSR by 2050. India”” is a western imperialist creation to enslave the Asians against the will of the indigenous people of South Asia”””” it is illegitimate alien and harmful to the Asians. The current “”””India”””” is an extension of its former colonial master”” British imperialist spreading their toxic divide-and-conquer discord among the Asians and land grab of its neighbours Sikkim GOA Kashmir Tibet South Nagas Manipur Assamese … Unless this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva get destroyed this toxic cancer will destroy all humanity with its regressive”” inhuman and barbaric caste system. Half of the “India” is in armed struggles against this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva regime in New Delhi; by 2050 those freedom fighters will shake off the inhuman caste system yoke impose on them by the Hindutva.”””””””

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  36. Ridiculous orientalist claptrap spewed by a Wumao. Communism is an artificial imported ideology used by China’s elite to justify a One Party State, and it has now quickly shed its communist trappings in favor of naked imperialism, as personified by President-For-Life Xi Jinping, the new emperor. This increasingly far-flung expansionist empire is only surviving on stuntsmanship while suffering from overreach, and is doomed to go off the rails.The debt bubble and the hemorrhaging of its capital markets due to underlying trade vulnerabilities mean that China’s factories can easily become a rust belt. Look at how your much-vaunted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is suffering new setbacks and shrinking in scope every day. You’re the one sitting on a house of cards, so don’t lecture anyone else.

    Reply
  37. The rupee is depreciating, but inflation is under control. Rural disposable income and purchasing power have been rising significantly in recent years in a country where 95% of the population are rural – which shows that India’s economic rise does not have to be focused on urban areas exclusively, and that there can be a distributed approach.

    Reply
  38. There were periods where the Rupee currency has dropped for extended periods of time relative to the dollar.” Yes. New Delhi just can not resist debauching the value of their currency any more than Manila, Buenos Aires and Istanbul can. “The Indian Rupee has been depreciating at an average rate of about 3.5% per year. In the 1950s it was 3.4 Rupees to one US dollar. In the 1960s it was 7 Rupees to one US dollar.” And in 1957, the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0614 And in 1962, the Canadian dollar was worth US $0.925 And in 1974, the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0443 Now it is only worth US $.78 So what is the point of comparing the value of the Indian rupee…especially when it was fixed per the Bretton Woods system in the 1950s and 60s when the value of the Canadian dollar dropped despite not being fixed until 1962? India is still a third world sh!thole and Canada is not despite both having experiences currency devaluation over time. Sure, India experienced more. But the US dollar – to which both the rupee and CAD are compared to – has depreciated in historical terms as well. There is no point except to provide some sort of false context of India’s rupee to bolster the narrative of this is article, as far as I can tell.

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  39. There were periods where the Rupee currency has dropped for extended periods of time relative to the dollar.””Yes. New Delhi just can not resist debauching the value of their currency any more than Manila”””” Buenos Aires and Istanbul can.””””The Indian Rupee has been depreciating at an average rate of about 3.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year.In the 1950s it was 3.4 Rupees to one US dollar.In the 1960s it was 7 Rupees to one US dollar.””””And in 1957″” the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0614And in 1962 the Canadian dollar was worth US $0.925And in 1974 the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0443Now it is only worth US $.78So what is the point of comparing the value of the Indian rupee…especially when it was fixed per the Bretton Woods system in the 1950s and 60s when the value of the Canadian dollar dropped despite not being fixed until 1962? India is still a third world sh!thole and Canada is not despite both having experiences currency devaluation over time. Sure India experienced more. But the US dollar – to which both the rupee and CAD are compared to – has depreciated in historical terms as well. There is no point except to provide some sort of false context of India’s rupee to bolster the narrative of this is article”” as far as I can tell.”””

    Reply
  40. India has lower GDP per capita than Iraq, its economic growth is not impressive Many countries like Iraq, Nigeria, Latin America had 10% growth 30-40 years ago, then growth stopped and never continued China on the other hand, has numerous provinces have living standards and gdp per capita equivalent to developed countries. They have rose continuously for 50 years straight something that no other country has done. South Korea and Taiwan were given tech monopolies by the US

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  41. India has lower GDP per capita than Iraq its economic growth is not impressive Many countries like Iraq Nigeria Latin America had 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} growth 30-40 years ago then growth stopped and never continuedChina on the other hand has numerous provinces have living standards and gdp per capita equivalent to developed countries. They have rose continuously for 50 years straight something that no other country has done. South Korea and Taiwan were given tech monopolies by the US

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  42. India has 2.8 trillion GdP 2018,, and its economy is projected to grow around 7-9 percent for the foreseeable future . Usually a economy double every 10 years if growing at 8% percent year or so. So by 2028, it should (assuming the currency remain the same against the us dollar) be 5.6 trillion (could be higher depending on the performance of indian rupee), so yes by 2030, they could hit 6 trillion

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  43. India has 2.8 trillion GdP 2018 and its economy is projected to grow around 7-9 percent for the foreseeable future . Usually a economy double every 10 years if growing at 8{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} percent year or so. So by 2028 it should (assuming the currency remain the same against the us dollar) be 5.6 trillion (could be higher depending on the performance of indian rupee) so yes by 2030 they could hit 6 trillion

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  44. I don’t think China gdp will reach 14.1 trillion this year (as projected by HSBC last week) given that the yuan has fallen dramatically since the beginning of the year. Well, the IMF next week (October 10) will publish projected GDP for countries , so we will see. My guess is China might end 2018 with 13.5 trillion economy (not 14.1 trillion which the IMF projected in April) due to the trade war. And also don’t think India will surpass the UK this year , again due to trade war and the fall of the Indian Rupee. So many things can change in just one year, and has.

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  45. I don’t think China gdp will reach 14.1 trillion this year (as projected by HSBC last week) given that the yuan has fallen dramatically since the beginning of the year. Well the IMF next week (October 10) will publish projected GDP for countries so we will see. My guess is China might end 2018 with 13.5 trillion economy (not 14.1 trillion which the IMF projected in April) due to the trade war. And also don’t think India will surpass the UK this year again due to trade war and the fall of the Indian Rupee. So many things can change in just one year and has.

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  46. Well, it depends on the performance of the rupee which fell 12% between January 2018 and Sept. 2018, partly due to the trade war and the strengthening of the US dollar. The same with Chinese economy, it depends on the performance yuan which too fell in 2018. Some forecaster as early as January or February of this year thought the yuan would end the year at 6.00 or so, now many think it might end near 7.00. Of course both currencies can regain everything that was lost in 2018.

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  47. Well it depends on the performance of the rupee which fell 12{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} between January 2018 and Sept. 2018 partly due to the trade war and the strengthening of the US dollar. The same with Chinese economy it depends on the performance yuan which too fell in 2018. Some forecaster as early as January or February of this year thought the yuan would end the year at 6.00 or so now many think it might end near 7.00. Of course both currencies can regain everything that was lost in 2018.

    Reply
  48. USA’s GDP is virtual, majority of it is made up by services or financial products, so USA’s GDP is like feit currency, it is like emperor’s new clothes, you can see but you cannot see it, while Chinese GDP is based on real production, tangable.

    Reply
  49. India will like USSR by 2050. “India” is a western imperialist creation to enslave the Asians against the will of the indigenous people of South Asia, it is illegitimate alien and harmful to the Asians. The current “India” is an extension of its former colonial master, British imperialist, spreading their toxic divide-and-conquer discord among the Asians, and land grab of its neighbours, Sikkim, GOA, Kashmir, Tibet South, Nagas, Manipur, Assamese, … Unless this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva get destroyed this toxic cancer will destroy all humanity with its regressive, inhuman and barbaric caste system.

    Half of the “India” is in armed struggles against this fascist regressive caste system Hindutva regime in New Delhi; by 2050 those freedom fighters will shake off the inhuman caste system yoke impose on them by the Hindutva.

    Reply
  50. “There were periods where the Rupee currency has dropped for extended periods of time relative to the dollar.”

    Yes. New Delhi just can not resist debauching the value of their currency any more than Manila, Buenos Aires and Istanbul can.

    “The Indian Rupee has been depreciating at an average rate of about 3.5% per year.
    In the 1950s it was 3.4 Rupees to one US dollar.
    In the 1960s it was 7 Rupees to one US dollar.”

    And in 1957, the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0614
    And in 1962, the Canadian dollar was worth US $0.925
    And in 1974, the Canadian dollar was worth US $1.0443

    Now it is only worth US $.78

    So what is the point of comparing the value of the Indian rupee…especially when it was fixed per the Bretton Woods system in the 1950s and 60s when the value of the Canadian dollar dropped despite not being fixed until 1962? India is still a third world sh!thole and Canada is not despite both having experiences currency devaluation over time. Sure, India experienced more. But the US dollar – to which both the rupee and CAD are compared to – has depreciated in historical terms as well.
    There is no point except to provide some sort of false context of India’s rupee to bolster the narrative of this is article, as far as I can tell.

    Reply
  51. India has lower GDP per capita than Iraq, its economic growth is not impressive

    Many countries like Iraq, Nigeria, Latin America had 10% growth 30-40 years ago, then growth stopped and never continued

    China on the other hand, has numerous provinces have living standards and gdp per capita equivalent to developed countries. They have rose continuously for 50 years straight something that no other country has done.

    South Korea and Taiwan were given tech monopolies by the US

    Reply
  52. The US needs India to handle China – no quad is possible without India. The US needs to sell weapons to India – sanctions would prevent that. The US policy of supporting Pakistan and its jihadism in Afghanistan has driven India into the arms of Iran, because then India is forced to respond by reinforcing Afghan sovereignty, and the only way India can do that is via transit through Iran. And so finally, the US also needs India’s help in the goal of reinforcing Afghan sovereignty, even while the US ironically undermines that goal by supporting the very same Pakistan which undermines that goal through its jihadism. It’s therefore very difficult to work with the US, due to its own internal contradictions and cognitive dissonance.

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  53. The US needs India to handle China – no quad is possible without India. The US needs to sell weapons to India – sanctions would prevent that. The US policy of supporting Pakistan and its jihadism in Afghanistan has driven India into the arms of Iran because then India is forced to respond by reinforcing Afghan sovereignty and the only way India can do that is via transit through Iran. And so finally the US also needs India’s help in the goal of reinforcing Afghan sovereignty even while the US ironically undermines that goal by supporting the very same Pakistan which undermines that goal through its jihadism. It’s therefore very difficult to work with the US due to its own internal contradictions and cognitive dissonance.

    Reply
  54. The notion of India outshining China is wistful thinking of the part of the Western Media as they are looking for a “democratic” hero as opposed to a “communist” success story. They cannot swallow the fact that another system apart from democracy will work. So they hope and encourage India to show the way. Any data coming out of India would be seen as “good” indicators while China is heading for a collapse. It hasn’t turned out that way and they are disappointed. Fact is, India can only plod along as they need a huge overhaul of their political system and I am sorry to say democracy should be junked.

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  55. The notion of India outshining China is wistful thinking of the part of the Western Media as they are looking for a democratic”” hero as opposed to a “”””communist”””” success story. They cannot swallow the fact that another system apart from democracy will work. So they hope and encourage India to show the way. Any data coming out of India would be seen as “”””good”””” indicators while China is heading for a collapse. It hasn’t turned out that way and they are disappointed. Fact is”””” India can only plod along as they need a huge overhaul of their political system and I am sorry to say democracy should be junked.”””

    Reply
  56. India has 2.8 trillion GdP 2018,, and its economy is projected to grow around 7-9 percent for the foreseeable future . Usually a economy double every 10 years if growing at 8% percent year or so. So by 2028, it should (assuming the currency remain the same against the us dollar) be 5.6 trillion (could be higher depending on the performance of indian rupee), so yes by 2030, they could hit 6 trillion

    Reply
  57. I don’t think China gdp will reach 14.1 trillion this year (as projected by HSBC last week) given that the yuan has fallen dramatically since the beginning of the year. Well, the IMF next week (October 10) will publish projected GDP for countries , so we will see. My guess is China might end 2018 with 13.5 trillion economy (not 14.1 trillion which the IMF projected in April) due to the trade war. And also don’t think India will surpass the UK this year , again due to trade war and the fall of the Indian Rupee. So many things can change in just one year, and has.

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  58. Well, it depends on the performance of the rupee which fell 12% between January 2018 and Sept. 2018, partly due to the trade war and the strengthening of the US dollar. The same with Chinese economy, it depends on the performance yuan which too fell in 2018. Some forecaster as early as January or February of this year thought the yuan would end the year at 6.00 or so, now many think it might end near 7.00. Of course both currencies can regain everything that was lost in 2018.

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  59. To answer the question, “What will India’s economy look like in 2030?” I think perhaps the straight exponential curve projections are best. Thank you EXCEL… I’ll not bore you with the line-by-line-poorly-formatted-and-nearly-unreadable stats, but in a nutshell it looks like: US… slope = 0.039, intercept = –75.37, R² = 0.997 India… slope = 0.067, intercept = –134.46, R² = 0.945 These are for the ln(GDP) numbers, or exponential rise “linearized” through the natural log function. Nice as those are, there’s only 2 things one can really ascribe to the raw numbers: the R² “r-squared correlation” is quite good for both. Confidence in predicting the future. The other thing is that India’s numbers have higher net growth expectations compared to America’s. That’d be the slope. OK, backing these into expected mean GDP numbers: 2020 US = $22.0 trillion || India = $3.2 trillion (14.3% of US) 2025 US = $26.7 trillion || India = $4.4 trillion (16.5% of US) 2030 US = $32.4 trillion || India = $6.2 trillion (19.0% of US) 2035 US = $39.8 trillion || India = $8.6 trillion (21.9% of US) 2040 US = $47.8 trillion || India = $12. trillion (25.0% of US) Now whether its realistic or not is entirely subjective. I would say though that the exponential rise correlations are good, so barring a major flat-tire on the highway for India, that these numbers might reasonably be seen in the years ahead. Just saying, GoatGuy

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  60. To answer the question “What will India’s economy look like in 2030?” I think perhaps the straight exponential curve projections are best. Thank you EXCEL…I’ll not bore you with the line-by-line-poorly-formatted-and-nearly-unreadable stats but in a nutshell it looks like:US… slope = 0.039 intercept = –75.37 R² = 0.997India… slope = 0.067 intercept = –134.46 R² = 0.945These are for the ln(GDP) numbers or exponential rise linearized”” through the natural log function. Nice as those are”””” there’s only 2 things one can really ascribe to the raw numbers: the R² “”””r-squared correlation”””” is quite good for both. Confidence in predicting the future.The other thing is that India’s numbers have higher net growth expectations compared to America’s. That’d be the slope. OK”” backing these into expected mean GDP numbers:2020 US = $22.0 trillion || India = $3.2 trillion (14.3{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US)2025 US = $26.7 trillion || India = $4.4 trillion (16.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US)2030 US = $32.4 trillion || India = $6.2 trillion (19.0{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US)2035 US = $39.8 trillion || India = $8.6 trillion (21.9{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US)2040 US = $47.8 trillion || India = $12. trillion (25.0{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of US)Now whether its realistic or not is entirely subjective. I would say though that the exponential rise correlations are good so barring a major flat-tire on the highway for India that these numbers might reasonably be seen in the years ahead. Just saying””GoatGuy”””””””

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  61. “Making a deal around the Dollar to Iran” (paraphrased) is a dangerous course of action for India. What does she really have to gain? Oh, sure: the intense trade of a country that has been ostracized by The Eagle for continuing to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons technology. Oh, that makes sense. And of course, seein’ as Old Trump has already declared that countries looking to do an end-run around Iran’s sanctions will be in turn sanctioned … India looks to LOSE a lot of export potential to the rest of the world. Will the bump-up with Iran be worth it? Hard to say. Thing is, I expect at some point that the Iranians will pull some military-espionage stunts. The economic sanctions taken against them, both directly by the US and indirectly by the US’s influence on the US allies, also trading partners with India are significant. When Iran decides to pull unequivocal stunts, those doing trade with her outside sanctions are likely to really “feel the pain” of the reprisal. Which is what make sanctions such a sharp spear. Causing change through economic hardship. Anyway, that’s all just Economics 101. GoatGuy

    Reply
  62. “Making a deal around the Dollar to Iran” (paraphrased) is a dangerous course of action for India. What does she really have to gain?Oh sure: the intense trade of a country that has been ostracized by The Eagle for continuing to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons technology. Oh that makes sense. And of course seein’ as Old Trump has already declared that countries looking to do an end-run around Iran’s sanctions will be in turn sanctioned … India looks to LOSE a lot of export potential to the rest of the world. Will the bump-up with Iran be worth it? Hard to say. Thing is I expect at some point that the Iranians will pull some military-espionage stunts. The economic sanctions taken against them both directly by the US and indirectly by the US’s influence on the US allies also trading partners with India are significant. When Iran decides to pull unequivocal stunts those doing trade with her outside sanctions are likely to really feel the pain”” of the reprisal. Which is what make sanctions such a sharp spear. Causing change through economic hardship. Anyway”””” that’s all just Economics 101.GoatGuy”””””””

    Reply
  63. A strong dollar at a time of rising oil prices is tough for oil dependent economies like India’s. It’s government should be looking to make a deal with nearby Iran, since dollar sanctions are making sales difficult for it, and it is looking for a way out. Surely, India has goods, services, or gold bullion it can export to support trade in the Rupee, Euro, Rial, or once again gold. After all, as JP Morgan stated, “gold is money, and nothing else”. This situation shows the shortsightedness of the US using the international status of the dollar as a weapon. The eventual movement away from the dollar for settlement of international debt will put the average US citizen in a world of hurt. I wonder who the politicians will blame it on, in their desperation to avoid responsibility for their actions.

    Reply
  64. A strong dollar at a time of rising oil prices is tough for oil dependent economies like India’s. It’s government should be looking to make a deal with nearby Iran since dollar sanctions are making sales difficult for it and it is looking for a way out. Surely India has goods services or gold bullion it can export to support trade in the Rupee Euro Rial or once again gold. After all as JP Morgan stated gold is money”” and nothing else””.This situation shows the shortsightedness of the US using the international status of the dollar as a weapon. The eventual movement away from the dollar for settlement of international debt will put the average US citizen in a world of hurt. I wonder who the politicians will blame it on”””” in their desperation to avoid responsibility for their actions.”””

    Reply
  65. The US needs India to handle China – no quad is possible without India. The US needs to sell weapons to India – sanctions would prevent that. The US policy of supporting Pakistan and its jihadism in Afghanistan has driven India into the arms of Iran, because then India is forced to respond by reinforcing Afghan sovereignty, and the only way India can do that is via transit through Iran. And so finally, the US also needs India’s help in the goal of reinforcing Afghan sovereignty, even while the US ironically undermines that goal by supporting the very same Pakistan which undermines that goal through its jihadism. It’s therefore very difficult to work with the US, due to its own internal contradictions and cognitive dissonance.

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  66. The notion of India outshining China is wistful thinking of the part of the Western Media as they are looking for a “democratic” hero as opposed to a “communist” success story. They cannot swallow the fact that another system apart from democracy will work. So they hope and encourage India to show the way. Any data coming out of India would be seen as “good” indicators while China is heading for a collapse. It hasn’t turned out that way and they are disappointed. Fact is, India can only plod along as they need a huge overhaul of their political system and I am sorry to say democracy should be junked.

    Reply
  67. To answer the question, “What will India’s economy look like in 2030?” I think perhaps the straight exponential curve projections are best. Thank you EXCEL…

    I’ll not bore you with the line-by-line-poorly-formatted-and-nearly-unreadable stats, but in a nutshell it looks like:

    US… slope = 0.039, intercept = –75.37, R² = 0.997
    India… slope = 0.067, intercept = –134.46, R² = 0.945

    These are for the ln(GDP) numbers, or exponential rise “linearized” through the natural log function. Nice as those are, there’s only 2 things one can really ascribe to the raw numbers: the R² “r-squared correlation” is quite good for both. Confidence in predicting the future.

    The other thing is that India’s numbers have higher net growth expectations compared to America’s. That’d be the slope.

    OK, backing these into expected mean GDP numbers:

    2020 US = $22.0 trillion || India = $3.2 trillion (14.3% of US)
    2025 US = $26.7 trillion || India = $4.4 trillion (16.5% of US)
    2030 US = $32.4 trillion || India = $6.2 trillion (19.0% of US)
    2035 US = $39.8 trillion || India = $8.6 trillion (21.9% of US)
    2040 US = $47.8 trillion || India = $12. trillion (25.0% of US)

    Now whether its realistic or not is entirely subjective. I would say though that the exponential rise correlations are good, so barring a major flat-tire on the highway for India, that these numbers might reasonably be seen in the years ahead.

    Just saying,
    GoatGuy

    Reply
  68. “Making a deal around the Dollar to Iran” (paraphrased) is a dangerous course of action for India. What does she really have to gain?

    Oh, sure: the intense trade of a country that has been ostracized by The Eagle for continuing to surreptitiously develop nuclear weapons technology. Oh, that makes sense. And of course, seein’ as Old Trump has already declared that countries looking to do an end-run around Iran’s sanctions will be in turn sanctioned … India looks to LOSE a lot of export potential to the rest of the world. Will the bump-up with Iran be worth it? Hard to say.

    Thing is, I expect at some point that the Iranians will pull some military-espionage stunts. The economic sanctions taken against them, both directly by the US and indirectly by the US’s influence on the US allies, also trading partners with India are significant.

    When Iran decides to pull unequivocal stunts, those doing trade with her outside sanctions are likely to really “feel the pain” of the reprisal.

    Which is what make sanctions such a sharp spear.
    Causing change through economic hardship.

    Anyway, that’s all just Economics 101.
    GoatGuy

    Reply
  69. A strong dollar at a time of rising oil prices is tough for oil dependent economies like India’s. It’s government should be looking to make a deal with nearby Iran, since dollar sanctions are making sales difficult for it, and it is looking for a way out. Surely, India has goods, services, or gold bullion it can export to support trade in the Rupee, Euro, Rial, or once again gold. After all, as JP Morgan stated, “gold is money, and nothing else”.
    This situation shows the shortsightedness of the US using the international status of the dollar as a weapon. The eventual movement away from the dollar for settlement of international debt will put the average US citizen in a world of hurt. I wonder who the politicians will blame it on, in their desperation to avoid responsibility for their actions.

    Reply
  70. The top gdp for 2018 according to imf are us 20.5 , china 13.47, japan 5 trillion , germany 4 trillion , uk 2.8 trillion , france 2.79, india 2.689, rounding out the top 10 are brazil , italy..

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  71. The top gdp for 2018 according to imf areus 20.5 china 13.47 japan 5 trillion germany 4 trillion uk 2.8 trillion france 2.79 india 2.689rounding out the top 10 are brazil italy..

    Reply
  72. I was correct. Today (10.9.18) , the IMF released its Gdp projection for 2018, and China , according to IMF 2018 Gdp will be 13.47 trillion (I said above it would 13.5), and India didn’t surpass the UK , it even fell below France. France will be 2.794 trillion, UK 2.808 trillion and India 2.689 trillion. As said both the Yuan and Rupee have fallen dramatically this year and this is the reason.

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  73. I was correct. Today (10.9.18) the IMF released its Gdp projection for 2018 and China according to IMF 2018 Gdp will be 13.47 trillion (I said above it would 13.5) and India didn’t surpass the UK it even fell below France. France will be 2.794 trillion UK 2.808 trillion and India 2.689 trillion. As said both the Yuan and Rupee have fallen dramatically this year and this is the reason.

    Reply

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