Will India’s economy be $5 or $10 trillion in 2030?

India’s economy is currently at $2.6 trillion on an exchange rate basis.

Hong Kong Shanghai Bank and forecasters agree that India will surpass Japan to become the number three economy in the world.

India’s government has a target of a $10 trillion economy by 2030.

The strength of the US dollar relative to the Indian Rupee will be the key factor.
India will likely continue to grow at about 5-9% annual GDP growth.
There were periods where the Rupee currency has dropped for extended periods of time relative to the dollar. India’s nominal exchange rate GDP was flat from 2011 through 2013 because of the exchange rate.

India was projected by the IMF to reach 2.8 trillion in 2018 but the Rupee has dropped from 66 to the US dollar to 72 to the US dollar in 2018.

The Indian Rupee has been depreciating at an average rate of about 3.5% per year.
In the 1950s it was 3.4 Rupees to one US dollar.
In the 1960s it was 7 Rupees to one US dollar.

India still has inflation in the 3 to 7% range.

It is not unusual for India’s currency to move up or down 20% in one year.

India ranks about 80th in corruption according to Transparency International. India has a lot of needed financial and institutional reform. Modi has implemented some reforms.

It does not appear like India will triple energy production by 2030 or build out infrastructure at the rate needed for a $10 trillion economy.

The likely range for India’s economy (nominal GDP) is $4-9 trillion in 2030. The most likely range is $5 to 7 trillion.

Russia’s nominal GDP almost dropped in half from 2013 to 2016 because of oil prices, weak economy and weak currency.