World wealth, people and cities in 2050-2060

How will the world be different in the 2050-2060 timeframe in terms of wealth and people?

The wealth will double over the next forty years. This will be like the average moving from Romania to Czech Republic. Asia will get close to the per capita levels of Europe today. Asia will still have a broad range of income but Europe currently has a broad range of incomes.

The population will be added in the cities.

The population split would be more like more than doubling Africa and adding half of the population of China in Asia.

We will shift from 7.6 billion people to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 10.2 billion in 2060.
This is an increase of 2.2 billion by 2050 and 2.6 billion by 2060.
The population increase by 2060 is almost like adding another India and China.
However, the population split would be more like more than doubling Africa and adding half of the population of China in Asia.

Asia’s population will go from 4.5 billion now to 4.92 billion in 2050 and 5.2 billion in 2060.
Africa will increase from 1.3 billion now to 2.9 billion in 2060.

The world should get twice as rich by 2060 after adjusting for inflation.
Asia will get four times as rich by 2060.

The world will have gone from 55% urban now to 68% in 2050 and over 70% in 2060.
The world will go from adding 78 million people every year to cities and slow down to 45 million per year. All of the young people and some of the old people will move off of farms and villages and into cities.
The rural population will decrease from 3.4 billion to 3.2 billion in 2050.

There will also be a shift to people in megacities (population 10 million or higher).

There are about 400 million people in megacities now.
There will be almost 900 million in megacities in 2050.
There will be about 1.1 billion in megacities in 2060.
There will be about 2.1 billion in megacities in 2100.

Currently global nominal per capita income is about $11,000 and on a purchasing power parity basis it is $18,000.

The middle countries are countries like Romania.

Doubling income and increasing urbanization means the average countries in the 2050s would be equivalent to the people of Czech Republic, Portugal or Spain of today.

131 thoughts on “World wealth, people and cities in 2050-2060”

  1. Instead of linear projections how about some actual analysis? I guarantee you that it isn’t going to be up and to the right for everyone for the next 30-40 years.

    Reply
  2. Instead of linear projections how about some actual analysis? I guarantee you that it isn’t going to be up and to the right for everyone for the next 30-40 years.

    Reply
  3. Technology is great and is growing fast. What isn’t growing is wisdom and leadership. You don’t happen to have a cure for a government run by m0r0ns do you? I mean, other than voting in new, less experienced, m0r0ns.

    Reply
  4. Or they might collapse under autocracy and a trade war with the US. The only thing you can predict about the future is that you can’t.

    Reply
  5. What I love about Brian’s site is that it provides people with a lot of hope… The Next Big Future simply provides loads of positive information to it’s devoted readers, and I’m one of them. Thanks Brian and every bit of success to you.

    Reply
  6. Especially for the US. In 15 years China will have 2 the GDP of the US, 3.5 times in PPP and they will be the global superpower

    Reply
  7. In the year 1999 the US made about 23% of the world GDP Today, a little bit more than 15% And they are decreasing again with Trump! So.. #MAGA

    Reply
  8. This is all BS! Look at where technology will be in the next 50 years based on hard studies of the growth of technology over last 2000 years. These studies were done by the greatest minds of our times and verified with same results by hundreds of people that wanted to prove them wrong. http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf Or do a google search for “Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf”. A completely unbelievable number with a error rate figured like this 50 year projection / 2000 year study = .025% error rate. Technology will be 1,125,899,906,842,620 times what it is today in 50 years

    Reply
  9. This is all BS. The End Of The Global Trade Order As We Knew It pretty much will put paid to nothing most of these predictions. Japan & Europe could not have achieved their wealth w/o the open access to export/import markets free of charge by the US of A. In fact, Japan went to war with us because we were squeezing them on that front…then were astounded after losing when we proposed the current system. Japan basically got everything they wanted (fundamentally) from defeat that they were trying to get via war. All that is ending. Now, if you want secured access to resources exported by ‘colonies’ and consumers to import your stuff, you will have to secure those shipping lanes on your own or pay handsomely for the privilege from some other power. Imperialism is about to make a big comeback. Too bad China will get choked on that front from the Indians and Japanese. The US has no interest in propping up the old world order. It’s Dead, Jim!

    Reply
  10. Ray Kurzweil did the original study. Links can not be inserted in these comments. Look for Ray Kurzweil biography. You will find him listed with his peers Stephen Hawking Elon Musk ETC.Since his study’s results were so unbelievably a lot of people wanted to prove the GREAT Ray Kurzweil wrong and thereby make a name for themselves. But all the studies gave very similar results.Just do a google search for exponential growth of technology.A very few of Ray Kurzweil’s accomplishments (Besides this study) Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison” and PBS selected Ray as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America” along with other inventors of the past two centuries. He is considered one of the world’s leading inventors thinkers and futurists with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions.Kurzweil was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner the first omni-font optical character recognition the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind the first text-to-speech synthesizer the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.”

    Reply
  11. Technology is great and is growing fast. What isn’t growing is wisdom and leadership. You don’t happen to have a cure for a government run by m0r0ns do you? I mean other than voting in new less experienced m0r0ns.

    Reply
  12. Or they might collapse under autocracy and a trade war with the US. The only thing you can predict about the future is that you can’t.

    Reply
  13. What I love about Brian’s site is that it provides people with a lot of hope… The Next Big Future simply provides loads of positive information to it’s devoted readers and I’m one of them. Thanks Brian and every bit of success to you.

    Reply
  14. In the year 1999 the US made about 23{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the world GDP Today a little bit more than 15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} And they are decreasing again with Trump! So.. #MAGA

    Reply
  15. This is all BS! Look at where technology will be in the next 50 years based on hard studies of the growth of technology over last 2000 years. These studies were done by the greatest minds of our times and verified with same results by hundreds of people that wanted to prove them wrong.http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdfOr do a google search for Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf””.A completely unbelievable number with a error rate figured like this 50 year projection / 2000 year study = .025{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} error rate.Technology will be 1″”125899906842″”620 times what it is today in 50 years”””

    Reply
  16. This is all BS. The End Of The Global Trade Order As We Knew It pretty much will put paid to nothing most of these predictions.Japan & Europe could not have achieved their wealth w/o the open access to export/import markets free of charge by the US of A. In fact Japan went to war with us because we were squeezing them on that front…then were astounded after losing when we proposed the current system. Japan basically got everything they wanted (fundamentally) from defeat that they were trying to get via war. All that is ending. Now if you want secured access to resources exported by ‘colonies’ and consumers to import your stuff you will have to secure those shipping lanes on your own or pay handsomely for the privilege from some other power. Imperialism is about to make a big comeback. Too bad China will get choked on that front from the Indians and Japanese.The US has no interest in propping up the old world order. It’s Dead Jim!

    Reply
  17. They did not collapse in the last 40 years and there is little evidence they will collapse tomorrow Let alone that they are growing 3x faster than the US and soon they will be the no 1 economy

    Reply
  18. In my home of 5, I’m the sole bread winner. I make up 100% of household GDP. In a few years my wife will go back to work. Our household income will go up, but my share of household GDP will go down. My kids will all be adding some level of income in 10 years or so. Once again, household income goes up, but my share of household GDP goes down. Why is this a bad thing? I’m I lesser man/father? Be intellectually honest. Don’t make lame uneducated political statements.

    Reply
  19. Ray Kurzweil did the original study. Links can not be inserted in these comments. Look for Ray Kurzweil biography. You will find him listed with his peers Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, ETC. Since his study’s results were so unbelievably a lot of people wanted to prove the GREAT Ray Kurzweil wrong and thereby make a name for themselves. But all the studies gave very similar results. Just do a google search for exponential growth of technology. A very few of Ray Kurzweil’s accomplishments (Besides this study) Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal, and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States, calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison,” and PBS selected Ray as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America,” along with other inventors of the past two centuries. He is considered one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions. Kurzweil was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.

    Reply
  20. They did not collapse in the last 40 years and there is little evidence they will collapse tomorrow Let alone that they are growing 3x faster than the US and soon they will be the no 1 economy

    Reply
  21. In my home of 5 I’m the sole bread winner. I make up 100{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of household GDP. In a few years my wife will go back to work. Our household income will go up but my share of household GDP will go down. My kids will all be adding some level of income in 10 years or so. Once again household income goes up but my share of household GDP goes down. Why is this a bad thing? I’m I lesser man/father? Be intellectually honest. Don’t make lame uneducated political statements.

    Reply
  22. The mega cities of today will piss their wealth away fighting wars and interventions in the third world while the people live their will have to turn their dwellings into favellas to survive. Brazil is your future.

    Reply
  23. We really have to have a better measure than GDP or average income, because: A. There’s the Jeff-Bezos-Walks-into-a-bar effect, wherein if Jeff Bezos walked into a bar, the average income would skyrocket to 10s of millions per year, but no one is actually making any more money; it’s just Bezos’ income pushing up the average. B. There is unlimited upside, but limited downside in the income scale. 2050 might even see the first Trillion dollar man, or woman (but probably man), but the poorest person, if you don’t count debt, will never make less than zero, even if they are out of the cash economy. C. Fewer people every year ARE out of the cash economy. The days of hunter/gatherer relic societies, or rural peasant squatters are coming to an end, especially as the world urbanizes, where you MUST have cash to survive. That doesn’t mean someone earning $2/day is richer than someone who could farm a small plot of forgotten land and gather from a communal forest. Very soon, even the most marginal land will be owned by someone, somewhere, and everyone will have to pay rent for what ought to be the commons. Then, if something isn’t done to redistribute the rent to everyone equally, most people will be neo-serfs, owing money their whole lives, with nowhere else to live.

    Reply
  24. The mega cities of today will piss their wealth away fighting wars and interventions in the third world while the people live their will have to turn their dwellings into favellas to survive. Brazil is your future.

    Reply
  25. We really have to have a better measure than GDP or average income because:A. There’s the Jeff-Bezos-Walks-into-a-bar effect wherein if Jeff Bezos walked into a bar the average income would skyrocket to 10s of millions per year but no one is actually making any more money; it’s just Bezos’ income pushing up the average.B. There is unlimited upside but limited downside in the income scale. 2050 might even see the first Trillion dollar man or woman (but probably man) but the poorest person if you don’t count debt will never make less than zero even if they are out of the cash economy.C. Fewer people every year ARE out of the cash economy. The days of hunter/gatherer relic societies or rural peasant squatters are coming to an end especially as the world urbanizes where you MUST have cash to survive. That doesn’t mean someone earning $2/day is richer than someone who could farm a small plot of forgotten land and gather from a communal forest. Very soon even the most marginal land will be owned by someone somewhere and everyone will have to pay rent for what ought to be the commons. Then if something isn’t done to redistribute the rent to everyone equally most people will be neo-serfs owing money their whole lives with nowhere else to live.

    Reply
  26. Yup. I read all his books, became a teacher at the Henry George School in NYC, wrote articles and a book, and was president of a Georgist group for 6 years.

    Reply
  27. Yup. I read all his books became a teacher at the Henry George School in NYC wrote articles and a book and was president of a Georgist group for 6 years.

    Reply
  28. This prediction didn’t take into account exponential growth of tech and science, current and future disruptive tech and scientific breakthroughs, the fact that even nowadays they are growing faster year by year, the fact that China and India alone are adding more than 8 million new graduates to global worforce each year, most of them STEM graduates. And those numbers are also increasing more each passing year. Exponential growth in automation, industrial robots production and also growth in sophistication of various kinds of machines and robots. 1 industrial robot today have productivity of 15 people. In 10-20 years, their productivity will increase at least 1000 times. China currently produces around 150k of them per year. Production grew by 30% last year and the rate of growth is also accelerating. Based on these trends and facts we may assume that in 20-40 years, people (mainly China but also other countries) will be producing tens to hundreds of millions of various robots per year, each 1 000 000 000 to trillion (average 1000x improvement per decade) times more productive than current versions. It will be like adding to global manufacturing workforce hundreds of billions(pessimistic growth vision) to hundreds of trillions of very productive human workers. Let’s do the math with optimitic scenario, that in late 50’s we will have at least 5 billions robots (by accumulation of robots produced between 2030-2059), each of them on average billion times more advanced and productive than current mega primitive verions. 5 billions x billion = (in late 50’s we will have equivalent of) 5 quadrillions of human workers with today productivity. And this is just manufacturing and processing, what about advanced AI, super advanced 3d printing, access to valuable rare metals and other resources thanks to space mining industry that will start booming in 2030’s and thousands of new technologies that will be created between 2019 – 2060 by ever growing engineers, scienti

    Reply
  29. This prediction didn’t take into account exponential growth of tech and science current and future disruptive tech and scientific breakthroughs the fact that even nowadays they are growing faster year by year the fact that China and India alone are adding more than 8 million new graduates to global worforce each year most of them STEM graduates. And those numbers are also increasing more each passing year. Exponential growth in automation industrial robots production and also growth in sophistication of various kinds of machines and robots.1 industrial robot today have productivity of 15 people. In 10-20 years their productivity will increase at least 1000 times.China currently produces around 150k of them per year. Production grew by 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} last year and the rate of growth is also accelerating.Based on these trends and facts we may assume that in 20-40 years people (mainly China but also other countries) will be producing tens to hundreds of millions of various robots per year each 1 000 000 000 to trillion (average 1000x improvement per decade) times more productive than current versions. It will be like adding to global manufacturing workforce hundreds of billions(pessimistic growth vision) to hundreds of trillions of very productive human workers. Let’s do the math with optimitic scenario that in late 50’s we will have at least 5 billions robots (by accumulation of robots produced between 2030-2059) each of them on average billion times more advanced and productive than current mega primitive verions.5 billions x billion = (in late 50’s we will have equivalent of) 5 quadrillions of human workers with today productivity.And this is just manufacturing and processing what about advanced AI super advanced 3d printing access to valuable rare metals and other resources thanks to space mining industry that will start booming in 2030’s and thousands of new technologies t

    Reply
  30. Assuming a fixed % growth per year IS exponential growth. That’s what exponential means in that context. I’ll assume the rest of your math is of similar quality.

    Reply
  31. Assuming a fixed {22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} growth per year IS exponential growth. That’s what exponential means in that context.I’ll assume the rest of your math is of similar quality.

    Reply
  32. I would like to read a discussion of how in practice one separates the value of the land from the value of what people have built on it. Also how one deals with issues like the value of farmland depending on how well the owner practices good soil conservation. Basically what are the criticisms of Georgism & how are they answered.

    Reply
  33. I would like to read a discussion of how in practice one separates the value of the land from the value of what people have built on it. Also how one deals with issues like the value of farmland depending on how well the owner practices good soil conservation. Basically what are the criticisms of Georgism & how are they answered.

    Reply
  34. Unfortunately the size of the economy is the amount of money spent. If the fruits of the increased productivity does not make it to the poor and middle class there will be very little growth. If the robots replace people and the people find no replacement jobs then the economy will actually shrink.

    Reply
  35. Unfortunately the size of the economy is the amount of money spent. If the fruits of the increased productivity does not make it to the poor and middle class there will be very little growth. If the robots replace people and the people find no replacement jobs then the economy will actually shrink.

    Reply
  36. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. -> Not so much. In the 50s and 60s when the US was not trading with China the US GDP was growing 4% per year, since 2000 the US is growing lessthan 2% per year and creating debt U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. -> Leverage? not so much. only less than 20% of China exports goes to the US the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars. -> Only as they are cowards. The US has only bombed countries who can not defend themselves Thank youu It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. -> It does because because of the GDP comes the power

    Reply
  37. I agree China is not our ally. I believe China should never have been admitted to WTO and given MFN status, but here we are. U.S. has helped China grow, and politicians hoped economic freedom would translate into liberty for China. Didn’t happen. However, when more people have more money and more stuff is being bought and sold, some of it is made here in the USA. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. Our country isn’t diminished because they do well too. U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. In the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.

    Reply
  38. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer.-> Not so much. In the 50s and 60s when the US was not trading with China the US GDP was growing 4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year since 2000 the US is growing lessthan 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year and creating debt U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. -> Leverage? not so much. only less than 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of China exports goes to the US the end richer nations tend to be cleaner and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.-> Only as they are cowards. The US has only bombed countries who can not defend themselves Thank youu It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs.-> It does because because of the GDP comes the power

    Reply
  39. I agree China is not our ally. I believe China should never have been admitted to WTO and given MFN status but here we are. U.S. has helped China grow and politicians hoped economic freedom would translate into liberty for China. Didn’t happen. However when more people have more money and more stuff is being bought and sold some of it is made here in the USA. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. Our country isn’t diminished because they do well too. U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. In the end richer nations tend to be cleaner and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.

    Reply
  40. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. -> Not so much. In the 50s and 60s when the US was not trading with China the US GDP was growing 4% per year, since 2000 the US is growing lessthan 2% per year and creating debt U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. -> Leverage? not so much. only less than 20% of China exports goes to the US the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars. -> Only as they are cowards. The US has only bombed countries who can not defend themselves Thank youu It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. -> It does because because of the GDP comes the power

    Reply
  41. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer.-> Not so much. In the 50s and 60s when the US was not trading with China the US GDP was growing 4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year since 2000 the US is growing lessthan 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year and creating debt U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. -> Leverage? not so much. only less than 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of China exports goes to the US the end richer nations tend to be cleaner and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.-> Only as they are cowards. The US has only bombed countries who can not defend themselves Thank youu It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs.-> It does because because of the GDP comes the power

    Reply
  42. I agree China is not our ally. I believe China should never have been admitted to WTO and given MFN status, but here we are. U.S. has helped China grow, and politicians hoped economic freedom would translate into liberty for China. Didn’t happen. However, when more people have more money and more stuff is being bought and sold, some of it is made here in the USA. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. Our country isn’t diminished because they do well too. U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. In the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.

    Reply
  43. I agree China is not our ally. I believe China should never have been admitted to WTO and given MFN status but here we are. U.S. has helped China grow and politicians hoped economic freedom would translate into liberty for China. Didn’t happen. However when more people have more money and more stuff is being bought and sold some of it is made here in the USA. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. Our country isn’t diminished because they do well too. U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. In the end richer nations tend to be cleaner and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.

    Reply
  44. Unfortunately the size of the economy is the amount of money spent. If the fruits of the increased productivity does not make it to the poor and middle class there will be very little growth. If the robots replace people and the people find no replacement jobs then the economy will actually shrink.

    Reply
  45. Unfortunately the size of the economy is the amount of money spent. If the fruits of the increased productivity does not make it to the poor and middle class there will be very little growth. If the robots replace people and the people find no replacement jobs then the economy will actually shrink.

    Reply
  46. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer.
    -> Not so much. In the 50s and 60s when the US was not trading with China the US GDP was growing 4% per year, since 2000 the US is growing lessthan 2% per year and creating debt

    U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so.
    -> Leverage? not so much. only less than 20% of China exports goes to the US

    the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.
    -> Only as they are cowards. The US has only bombed countries who can not defend themselves Thank youu

    It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs.
    -> It does because because of the GDP comes the power

    Reply
  47. I would like to read a discussion of how in practice one separates the value of the land from the value of what people have built on it. Also how one deals with issues like the value of farmland depending on how well the owner practices good soil conservation. Basically what are the criticisms of Georgism & how are they answered.

    Reply
  48. I would like to read a discussion of how in practice one separates the value of the land from the value of what people have built on it. Also how one deals with issues like the value of farmland depending on how well the owner practices good soil conservation. Basically what are the criticisms of Georgism & how are they answered.

    Reply
  49. I agree China is not our ally. I believe China should never have been admitted to WTO and given MFN status, but here we are. U.S. has helped China grow, and politicians hoped economic freedom would translate into liberty for China. Didn’t happen. However, when more people have more money and more stuff is being bought and sold, some of it is made here in the USA. Our economy does better when there is more trade and everyone gets richer. It doesn’t matter our GDP # relative to theirs. Our country isn’t diminished because they do well too. U.S. has serious matters to sort out with China while we have the leverage to do so. In the end, richer nations tend to be cleaner, and people with something to conserve tend not to get into shooting wars.

    Reply
  50. Unfortunately the size of the economy is the amount of money spent. If the fruits of the increased productivity does not make it to the poor and middle class there will be very little growth. If the robots replace people and the people find no replacement jobs then the economy will actually shrink.

    Reply
  51. I would like to read a discussion of how in practice one separates the value of the land from the value of what people have built on it. Also how one deals with issues like the value of farmland depending on how well the owner practices good soil conservation. Basically what are the criticisms of Georgism & how are they answered.

    Reply
  52. Assuming a fixed % growth per year IS exponential growth. That’s what exponential means in that context. I’ll assume the rest of your math is of similar quality.

    Reply
  53. Assuming a fixed {22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} growth per year IS exponential growth. That’s what exponential means in that context.I’ll assume the rest of your math is of similar quality.

    Reply
  54. This prediction didn’t take into account exponential growth of tech and science, current and future disruptive tech and scientific breakthroughs, the fact that even nowadays they are growing faster year by year, the fact that China and India alone are adding more than 8 million new graduates to global worforce each year, most of them STEM graduates. And those numbers are also increasing more each passing year. Exponential growth in automation, industrial robots production and also growth in sophistication of various kinds of machines and robots. 1 industrial robot today have productivity of 15 people. In 10-20 years, their productivity will increase at least 1000 times. China currently produces around 150k of them per year. Production grew by 30% last year and the rate of growth is also accelerating. Based on these trends and facts we may assume that in 20-40 years, people (mainly China but also other countries) will be producing tens to hundreds of millions of various robots per year, each 1 000 000 000 to trillion (average 1000x improvement per decade) times more productive than current versions. It will be like adding to global manufacturing workforce hundreds of billions(pessimistic growth vision) to hundreds of trillions of very productive human workers. Let’s do the math with optimitic scenario, that in late 50’s we will have at least 5 billions robots (by accumulation of robots produced between 2030-2059), each of them on average billion times more advanced and productive than current mega primitive verions. 5 billions x billion = (in late 50’s we will have equivalent of) 5 quadrillions of human workers with today productivity. And this is just manufacturing and processing, what about advanced AI, super advanced 3d printing, access to valuable rare metals and other resources thanks to space mining industry that will start booming in 2030’s and thousands of new technologies that will be created between 2019 – 2060 by ever growing engineers, scienti

    Reply
  55. This prediction didn’t take into account exponential growth of tech and science current and future disruptive tech and scientific breakthroughs the fact that even nowadays they are growing faster year by year the fact that China and India alone are adding more than 8 million new graduates to global worforce each year most of them STEM graduates. And those numbers are also increasing more each passing year. Exponential growth in automation industrial robots production and also growth in sophistication of various kinds of machines and robots.1 industrial robot today have productivity of 15 people. In 10-20 years their productivity will increase at least 1000 times.China currently produces around 150k of them per year. Production grew by 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} last year and the rate of growth is also accelerating.Based on these trends and facts we may assume that in 20-40 years people (mainly China but also other countries) will be producing tens to hundreds of millions of various robots per year each 1 000 000 000 to trillion (average 1000x improvement per decade) times more productive than current versions. It will be like adding to global manufacturing workforce hundreds of billions(pessimistic growth vision) to hundreds of trillions of very productive human workers. Let’s do the math with optimitic scenario that in late 50’s we will have at least 5 billions robots (by accumulation of robots produced between 2030-2059) each of them on average billion times more advanced and productive than current mega primitive verions.5 billions x billion = (in late 50’s we will have equivalent of) 5 quadrillions of human workers with today productivity.And this is just manufacturing and processing what about advanced AI super advanced 3d printing access to valuable rare metals and other resources thanks to space mining industry that will start booming in 2030’s and thousands of new technologies t

    Reply
  56. Yup. I read all his books, became a teacher at the Henry George School in NYC, wrote articles and a book, and was president of a Georgist group for 6 years.

    Reply
  57. Yup. I read all his books became a teacher at the Henry George School in NYC wrote articles and a book and was president of a Georgist group for 6 years.

    Reply
  58. This prediction didn’t take into account exponential growth of tech and science, current and future disruptive tech and scientific breakthroughs, the fact that even nowadays they are growing faster year by year, the fact that China and India alone are adding more than 8 million new graduates to global worforce each year, most of them STEM graduates. And those numbers are also increasing more each passing year.

    Exponential growth in automation, industrial robots production and also growth in sophistication of various kinds of machines and robots.

    1 industrial robot today have productivity of 15 people. In 10-20 years, their productivity will increase at least 1000 times.

    China currently produces around 150k of them per year. Production grew by 30% last year and the rate of growth is also accelerating.

    Based on these trends and facts we may assume that in 20-40 years, people (mainly China but also other countries) will be producing tens to hundreds of millions of various robots per year, each 1 000 000 000 to trillion (average 1000x improvement per decade) times more productive than current versions.

    It will be like adding to global manufacturing workforce hundreds of billions(pessimistic growth vision) to hundreds of trillions of very productive human workers.

    Let’s do the math with optimitic scenario, that in late 50’s we will have at least 5 billions robots (by accumulation of robots produced between 2030-2059), each of them on average billion times more advanced and productive than current mega primitive verions.

    5 billions x billion = (in late 50’s we will have equivalent of) 5 quadrillions of human workers with today productivity.

    And this is just manufacturing and processing, what about advanced AI, super advanced 3d printing, access to valuable rare metals and other resources thanks to space mining industry that will start booming in 2030’s and thousands of new technologies that will be created between 2019 – 2060 by ever growing engineers, scientists population and R&D budgets of governmenets and companies.

    My prediction is that thanks to the mix of very fast growing tech and science global workforce + exponential growth of technology and science, accumulation of new knowledge and ideas generated each passing year, the fact that new knowledge and ideas are more and more advanced and sophisticated each passing year, economic growth will speed up enormously after 2030. It is quite possible that starting in late 2030’s we will be growing by more than 100% per year instead of current 3-5%.

    Greetings from Poland

    Reply
  59. The mega cities of today will piss their wealth away fighting wars and interventions in the third world while the people live their will have to turn their dwellings into favellas to survive. Brazil is your future.

    Reply
  60. The mega cities of today will piss their wealth away fighting wars and interventions in the third world while the people live their will have to turn their dwellings into favellas to survive. Brazil is your future.

    Reply
  61. We really have to have a better measure than GDP or average income, because: A. There’s the Jeff-Bezos-Walks-into-a-bar effect, wherein if Jeff Bezos walked into a bar, the average income would skyrocket to 10s of millions per year, but no one is actually making any more money; it’s just Bezos’ income pushing up the average. B. There is unlimited upside, but limited downside in the income scale. 2050 might even see the first Trillion dollar man, or woman (but probably man), but the poorest person, if you don’t count debt, will never make less than zero, even if they are out of the cash economy. C. Fewer people every year ARE out of the cash economy. The days of hunter/gatherer relic societies, or rural peasant squatters are coming to an end, especially as the world urbanizes, where you MUST have cash to survive. That doesn’t mean someone earning $2/day is richer than someone who could farm a small plot of forgotten land and gather from a communal forest. Very soon, even the most marginal land will be owned by someone, somewhere, and everyone will have to pay rent for what ought to be the commons. Then, if something isn’t done to redistribute the rent to everyone equally, most people will be neo-serfs, owing money their whole lives, with nowhere else to live.

    Reply
  62. We really have to have a better measure than GDP or average income because:A. There’s the Jeff-Bezos-Walks-into-a-bar effect wherein if Jeff Bezos walked into a bar the average income would skyrocket to 10s of millions per year but no one is actually making any more money; it’s just Bezos’ income pushing up the average.B. There is unlimited upside but limited downside in the income scale. 2050 might even see the first Trillion dollar man or woman (but probably man) but the poorest person if you don’t count debt will never make less than zero even if they are out of the cash economy.C. Fewer people every year ARE out of the cash economy. The days of hunter/gatherer relic societies or rural peasant squatters are coming to an end especially as the world urbanizes where you MUST have cash to survive. That doesn’t mean someone earning $2/day is richer than someone who could farm a small plot of forgotten land and gather from a communal forest. Very soon even the most marginal land will be owned by someone somewhere and everyone will have to pay rent for what ought to be the commons. Then if something isn’t done to redistribute the rent to everyone equally most people will be neo-serfs owing money their whole lives with nowhere else to live.

    Reply
  63. They did not collapse in the last 40 years and there is little evidence they will collapse tomorrow Let alone that they are growing 3x faster than the US and soon they will be the no 1 economy

    Reply
  64. They did not collapse in the last 40 years and there is little evidence they will collapse tomorrow Let alone that they are growing 3x faster than the US and soon they will be the no 1 economy

    Reply
  65. In my home of 5, I’m the sole bread winner. I make up 100% of household GDP. In a few years my wife will go back to work. Our household income will go up, but my share of household GDP will go down. My kids will all be adding some level of income in 10 years or so. Once again, household income goes up, but my share of household GDP goes down. Why is this a bad thing? I’m I lesser man/father? Be intellectually honest. Don’t make lame uneducated political statements.

    Reply
  66. In my home of 5 I’m the sole bread winner. I make up 100{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of household GDP. In a few years my wife will go back to work. Our household income will go up but my share of household GDP will go down. My kids will all be adding some level of income in 10 years or so. Once again household income goes up but my share of household GDP goes down. Why is this a bad thing? I’m I lesser man/father? Be intellectually honest. Don’t make lame uneducated political statements.

    Reply
  67. Ray Kurzweil did the original study. Links can not be inserted in these comments. Look for Ray Kurzweil biography. You will find him listed with his peers Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, ETC. Since his study’s results were so unbelievably a lot of people wanted to prove the GREAT Ray Kurzweil wrong and thereby make a name for themselves. But all the studies gave very similar results. Just do a google search for exponential growth of technology. A very few of Ray Kurzweil’s accomplishments (Besides this study) Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal, and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States, calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison,” and PBS selected Ray as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America,” along with other inventors of the past two centuries. He is considered one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions. Kurzweil was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.

    Reply
  68. Ray Kurzweil did the original study. Links can not be inserted in these comments. Look for Ray Kurzweil biography. You will find him listed with his peers Stephen Hawking Elon Musk ETC.Since his study’s results were so unbelievably a lot of people wanted to prove the GREAT Ray Kurzweil wrong and thereby make a name for themselves. But all the studies gave very similar results.Just do a google search for exponential growth of technology.A very few of Ray Kurzweil’s accomplishments (Besides this study) Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison” and PBS selected Ray as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America” along with other inventors of the past two centuries. He is considered one of the world’s leading inventors thinkers and futurists with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions.Kurzweil was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner the first omni-font optical character recognition the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind the first text-to-speech synthesizer the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.”

    Reply
  69. Technology is great and is growing fast. What isn’t growing is wisdom and leadership. You don’t happen to have a cure for a government run by m0r0ns do you? I mean, other than voting in new, less experienced, m0r0ns.

    Reply
  70. Technology is great and is growing fast. What isn’t growing is wisdom and leadership. You don’t happen to have a cure for a government run by m0r0ns do you? I mean other than voting in new less experienced m0r0ns.

    Reply
  71. Or they might collapse under autocracy and a trade war with the US. The only thing you can predict about the future is that you can’t.

    Reply
  72. Or they might collapse under autocracy and a trade war with the US. The only thing you can predict about the future is that you can’t.

    Reply
  73. What I love about Brian’s site is that it provides people with a lot of hope… The Next Big Future simply provides loads of positive information to it’s devoted readers, and I’m one of them. Thanks Brian and every bit of success to you.

    Reply
  74. What I love about Brian’s site is that it provides people with a lot of hope… The Next Big Future simply provides loads of positive information to it’s devoted readers and I’m one of them. Thanks Brian and every bit of success to you.

    Reply
  75. Especially for the US. In 15 years China will have 2 the GDP of the US, 3.5 times in PPP and they will be the global superpower

    Reply
  76. In the year 1999 the US made about 23% of the world GDP Today, a little bit more than 15% And they are decreasing again with Trump! So.. #MAGA

    Reply
  77. In the year 1999 the US made about 23{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the world GDP Today a little bit more than 15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} And they are decreasing again with Trump! So.. #MAGA

    Reply
  78. This is all BS! Look at where technology will be in the next 50 years based on hard studies of the growth of technology over last 2000 years. These studies were done by the greatest minds of our times and verified with same results by hundreds of people that wanted to prove them wrong. http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf Or do a google search for “Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf”. A completely unbelievable number with a error rate figured like this 50 year projection / 2000 year study = .025% error rate. Technology will be 1,125,899,906,842,620 times what it is today in 50 years

    Reply
  79. This is all BS! Look at where technology will be in the next 50 years based on hard studies of the growth of technology over last 2000 years. These studies were done by the greatest minds of our times and verified with same results by hundreds of people that wanted to prove them wrong.http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdfOr do a google search for Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf””.A completely unbelievable number with a error rate figured like this 50 year projection / 2000 year study = .025{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} error rate.Technology will be 1″”125899906842″”620 times what it is today in 50 years”””

    Reply
  80. The mega cities of today will piss their wealth away fighting wars and interventions in the third world while the people live their will have to turn their dwellings into favellas to survive. Brazil is your future.

    Reply
  81. This is all BS. The End Of The Global Trade Order As We Knew It pretty much will put paid to nothing most of these predictions. Japan & Europe could not have achieved their wealth w/o the open access to export/import markets free of charge by the US of A. In fact, Japan went to war with us because we were squeezing them on that front…then were astounded after losing when we proposed the current system. Japan basically got everything they wanted (fundamentally) from defeat that they were trying to get via war. All that is ending. Now, if you want secured access to resources exported by ‘colonies’ and consumers to import your stuff, you will have to secure those shipping lanes on your own or pay handsomely for the privilege from some other power. Imperialism is about to make a big comeback. Too bad China will get choked on that front from the Indians and Japanese. The US has no interest in propping up the old world order. It’s Dead, Jim!

    Reply
  82. This is all BS. The End Of The Global Trade Order As We Knew It pretty much will put paid to nothing most of these predictions.Japan & Europe could not have achieved their wealth w/o the open access to export/import markets free of charge by the US of A. In fact Japan went to war with us because we were squeezing them on that front…then were astounded after losing when we proposed the current system. Japan basically got everything they wanted (fundamentally) from defeat that they were trying to get via war. All that is ending. Now if you want secured access to resources exported by ‘colonies’ and consumers to import your stuff you will have to secure those shipping lanes on your own or pay handsomely for the privilege from some other power. Imperialism is about to make a big comeback. Too bad China will get choked on that front from the Indians and Japanese.The US has no interest in propping up the old world order. It’s Dead Jim!

    Reply
  83. Instead of linear projections how about some actual analysis? I guarantee you that it isn’t going to be up and to the right for everyone for the next 30-40 years.

    Reply
  84. Instead of linear projections how about some actual analysis? I guarantee you that it isn’t going to be up and to the right for everyone for the next 30-40 years.

    Reply
  85. We really have to have a better measure than GDP or average income, because:
    A. There’s the Jeff-Bezos-Walks-into-a-bar effect, wherein if Jeff Bezos walked into a bar, the average income would skyrocket to 10s of millions per year, but no one is actually making any more money; it’s just Bezos’ income pushing up the average.
    B. There is unlimited upside, but limited downside in the income scale. 2050 might even see the first Trillion dollar man, or woman (but probably man), but the poorest person, if you don’t count debt, will never make less than zero, even if they are out of the cash economy.
    C. Fewer people every year ARE out of the cash economy. The days of hunter/gatherer relic societies, or rural peasant squatters are coming to an end, especially as the world urbanizes, where you MUST have cash to survive. That doesn’t mean someone earning $2/day is richer than someone who could farm a small plot of forgotten land and gather from a communal forest. Very soon, even the most marginal land will be owned by someone, somewhere, and everyone will have to pay rent for what ought to be the commons. Then, if something isn’t done to redistribute the rent to everyone equally, most people will be neo-serfs, owing money their whole lives, with nowhere else to live.

    Reply
  86. In my home of 5, I’m the sole bread winner. I make up 100% of household GDP. In a few years my wife will go back to work. Our household income will go up, but my share of household GDP will go down. My kids will all be adding some level of income in 10 years or so. Once again, household income goes up, but my share of household GDP goes down. Why is this a bad thing? I’m I lesser man/father? Be intellectually honest. Don’t make lame uneducated political statements.

    Reply
  87. Ray Kurzweil did the original study. Links can not be inserted in these comments. Look for Ray Kurzweil biography. You will find him listed with his peers Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, ETC.
    Since his study’s results were so unbelievably a lot of people wanted to prove the GREAT Ray Kurzweil wrong and thereby make a name for themselves. But all the studies gave very similar results.

    Just do a google search for exponential growth of technology.
    A very few of Ray Kurzweil’s accomplishments (Besides this study)

    Ray Kurzweil has been described as “the restless genius” by The Wall Street Journal, and “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States, calling him the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison,” and PBS selected Ray as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America,” along with other inventors of the past two centuries. He is considered one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions.

    Kurzweil was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.

    Reply
  88. Technology is great and is growing fast. What isn’t growing is wisdom and leadership. You don’t happen to have a cure for a government run by m0r0ns do you? I mean, other than voting in new, less experienced, m0r0ns.

    Reply
  89. What I love about Brian’s site is that it provides people with a lot of hope… The Next Big Future simply provides loads of positive information to it’s devoted readers, and I’m one of them. Thanks Brian and every bit of success to you.

    Reply
  90. This is all BS! Look at where technology will be in the next 50 years based on hard studies of the growth of technology over last 2000 years. These studies were done by the greatest minds of our times and verified with same results by hundreds of people that wanted to prove them wrong.

    http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf
    Or do a google search for “Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf”.

    A completely unbelievable number with a error rate figured like this 50 year projection / 2000 year study = .025% error rate.

    Technology will be 1,125,899,906,842,620 times what it is today in 50 years

    Reply
  91. This is all BS.

    The End Of The Global Trade Order As We Knew It pretty much will put paid to nothing most of these predictions.

    Japan & Europe could not have achieved their wealth w/o the open access to export/import markets free of charge by the US of A. In fact, Japan went to war with us because we were squeezing them on that front…then were astounded after losing when we proposed the current system. Japan basically got everything they wanted (fundamentally) from defeat that they were trying to get via war.

    All that is ending. Now, if you want secured access to resources exported by ‘colonies’ and consumers to import your stuff, you will have to secure those shipping lanes on your own or pay handsomely for the privilege from some other power.

    Imperialism is about to make a big comeback. Too bad China will get choked on that front from the Indians and Japanese.

    The US has no interest in propping up the old world order. It’s Dead, Jim!

    Reply

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