Tesla Full Self Driving in 2019Q2 and ride sharing via hybrid Airbnb-Uber model

Tesla had a profitable third quarter and built up more cash.

Current Advanced Autopilot

Tesla will soon rollout the team’s most advanced Autopilot feature called Navigate on Autopilot. In their last release, they launched a new set of neural network that provides a view of everything happening around the car. With Navigate on Autopilot, they’ll use information to understand exactly where the car is on the highway system and to automatically change lanes, handle forks and take high curvature exits to follow a nav route.

Initially, it will require drivers to confirm lane changes using the turn the signal, before the car moves into an adjacent lane. Future versions will allow customers to wave the confirmation requirement they choose to. One area that they are really excited to build on this improvement is active safety. With the advancement in neural networks, covering 360 degrees of view around our car, they can provide a level of constant vigilance that humans just can’t.

Ultimately, this shall allow us to warn, even intervene for an enormous percentage of modern accidents and to ship these improvements as software upgrades to our existing customers.

Hardware 3 will support full self driving. Ten times better computer. Should be ready 2019Q2

The Hardware 3 design is continuing to move along. Over the last quarter, they’ve completed qualification of the silicon, qualification of the board. They started the manufacturing line, in qualification of the manufacturing line. They’ve been validating the provisioning flows in the factor. They built test versions of Model S, X and 3 in the factory to validate all the fit and finish of the parts and all the provisioning flows. They’re still on track to have it ready to go by the end of Q1, 2019. It is roughly 1000% increase in processing capability compared to the current hardware. A giant improvement despite costing about the same. Cost, volume and power consumption are approximately the same as the current hardware, but it’s a ten-fold improvement in frames per second.

The simple change of upgrading the computer will take less than half-an-hour in service to upgrade the computer. Anyone will be able to upgrade their computer to full self-driving capability or upgrade their car to full self-driving capability with a simple service visit.

Tesla expects all cars with a Hardware 2 sensor suite, basically, anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full self-driving.

Andrej Karpathy is the director of AI here at Tesla. This upgrade allows Tesla AI to not just run the current neural networks faster, but more importantly, it will allow us to deploy much larger, computationally more expensive networks to the fleet. The reason this is important is that, it is a common finding in the industry and that we see this as well, is that as you make the networks bigger by adding more neurons, the accuracy of all their predictions increases with the added capacity.

Elon Musk Describes Tesla’s self driving ride sharing future

Elon talked a bit about the kind of long-term future. They absolutely see the future as kind of – as sort of a shared electric autonomy. So that you’ll be able to do ride-hailing or share your car anyway, sort of long-term model that’s some combination of like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb. There will be Tesla dedicated cars for ride-hailing and there will be – and any customer will be able to share their car at will, just like you share your house in Airbnb. So it’s a combination of those two models. Elon Musk thinks, it’s pretty obviously where things are headed long-term.

The advantage that Tesla will have is that they will have millions of cars in the field with full autonomy capability, and no one else will have that. So Elon thinks that puts Tesla – that will end up putting us in the strongest competitive position long-term.

The Tesla company-owned fleet will just be where there aren’t enough customer cars to be loaned out. If a particular city does not have enough customers loaning cars, then Tesla will supplement with a Tesla own fleet. This is the self-driving combination of Uber and Airbnb.
Tesla will charge something probably comparable to Apple App store. Tesla will charge 30% or something in order for somebody to add the cars to fleet. Elon thinks that’s like a pretty sensible way to go.

Profitable quarter and Europe and China will be big for 2019

The full transcript of the earnings call is available.

Tesla delivered a total of 84,000 vehicles globally, which is more than 80% of the vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017. In fact, they delivered more cars in this quarter than they did in all of 2016, in a single quarter.

Model 3 became the best-selling car in U.S. in terms of revenue and the 5th best-selling car in terms of volume.

They expect to produce and sell even more Model 3s in Q4. And expect that trend to continue into Q1. And we’re excited to bring Model 3 to Europe and China early next year, given that the market for mid-sized premium sedans in those regions is even larger than in North America.

Q3 2018 was a truly historic quarter for Tesla. Model 3 was the best-selling car in the US in terms of revenue and the 5th best-selling car in terms of volume. With average weekly Model 3 production through the quarter (excluding planned shutdowns) of roughly 4,300 units per week, we achieved GAAP net income of $312 million. We also delivered on our internal cost efficiency targets, leading to GAAP Model 3 gross margin of more than 20%, which exceeded our guidance. Finally, our total cash increased by $731 million and we had free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex) of $881 million despite less than 10% of that amount coming from key working capital items (payables, receivables, and inventory).

In order to significantly increase the affordability of Model 3, we have decided to accelerate our manufacturing timeline in China. We are aiming to bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019 and to progressively increase the level of localization through local sourcing and manufacturing. Production in China will be designated only for local customers.

We recently started releasing Version 9.0 of our vehicle software, which marks our biggest software upgrade in the last two years. Our Autopilot software is now much improved, and, as a result, we can start adding new functionality that was not possible in the past. The main functionality we added to our early access users is “Navigate on Autopilot” where on most controlled-access roads such as highways, any Tesla vehicle made from October 2016 with Enhanced Autopilot will be able to automatically change lanes with driver confirmation, transition from one freeway to another, and ultimately exit the freeway when approaching the final destination. We also enabled long-awaited dashboard camera functionality as well as some Atari games when a vehicle is parked. This new software architecture will enable us to accelerate deployment of new Autopilot and Self-Driving features in the future.

56 thoughts on “Tesla Full Self Driving in 2019Q2 and ride sharing via hybrid Airbnb-Uber model”

  1. Where are the skeptics now? Tesla is in profit. We were told that Tesla will absolutely go bankrupt in the next few months by fake media and that every car is costing them more than they sell it for. They will absolutely destroy any legacy car company. I will be laughing especially at VW, they deserve it after putting so much dirty diesel on roads here in Europe. “totally clean diesel, buy it! its good for your lungs” 🙂

    Reply
  2. Where are the skeptics now? Tesla is in profit. We were told that Tesla will absolutely go bankrupt in the next few months by fake media and that every car is costing them more than they sell it for. They will absolutely destroy any legacy car company. I will be laughing especially at VW they deserve it after putting so much dirty diesel on roads here in Europe. totally clean diesel”” buy it! its good for your lungs”” :)”””

    Reply
  3. Capitalism turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation. We had a good run, but it’s over. It’s socialism or genocide and that’s it.

    Reply
  4. Capitalism turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.We had a good run but it’s over. It’s socialism or genocide and that’s it.

    Reply
  5. They can increase their computer by 10 or 1,000,000 times for that matter and if the their software or set of senors isn’t up to the task then their cars won’t be capable of self driving. Note, by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving which I assume is their definition of full self driving (equating full self driving to anything less than level 5 would be dishonest.)

    Reply
  6. They can increase their computer by 10 or 1000000 times for that matter and if the their software or set of senors isn’t up to the task then their cars won’t be capable of self driving. Note by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving which I assume is their definition of full self driving (equating full self driving to anything less than level 5 would be dishonest.)

    Reply
  7. Socialism or genocide? No. From experience. Socialism is like genocide. Socialism always “turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.” You did not read about Venezuela? You did not experience Holodomor. China does not have laws for much safety. So those Models 3 will be cheaper? 🙂 I am old, and hoping for the good self-driving car here.

    Reply
  8. Socialism or genocide? No. From experience. Socialism is like genocide. Socialism always turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.”” You did not read about Venezuela? You did not experience Holodomor. China does not have laws for much safety. So those Models 3 will be cheaper? 🙂 I am old”””” and hoping for the good self-driving car here.”””

    Reply
  9. Capitalism delivers clean, fast, efficient vehicles. Socialism delivers starvation and poverty. Therefore this is proof that we need socialism. Logic?

    Reply
  10. Capitalism delivers clean fast efficient vehicles. Socialism delivers starvation and poverty. Therefore this is proof that we need socialism.Logic?

    Reply
  11. Tesla needs to pay their bills. Who knows. I think they will survive bit in a few years will have real competition. VW will do fine and in five years will be producing more EVs than Tesla. Tesla’s total annual production doesn’t even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year.

    Reply
  12. Tesla needs to pay their bills. Who knows. I think they will survive bit in a few years will have real competition.VW will do fine and in five years will be producing more EVs than Tesla. Tesla’s total annual production doesn’t even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year.

    Reply
  13. I’ve got news for you, history and theory both show there is no room for human beings in socialism. Socialism is genocide, communism is only quicker. Liberty and capitalism are the same thing, and they are not any murder or thievery at all.

    Reply
  14. I’ve got news for you history and theory both show there is no room for human beings in socialism.Socialism is genocide communism is only quicker. Liberty and capitalism are the same thing and they are not any murder or thievery at all.

    Reply
  15. …by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving…” Agreed! We’re seeing a lot of SEA level inflation accompanying the hype around SDCs. While driver-assist systems are fine and convenient, there won’t be a transportation revolution until cars can reliably move around cities and highways with no input from humans, with or without any passengers inside. Before we reach that point, we may have cars that are remotely monitored and assisted by people at a central location (or even working from home). The frequency of remote interventions should drop as SDCs become more and more capable. It will be an interesting thing to see.

    Reply
  16. …by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving…””Agreed! We’re seeing a lot of SEA level inflation accompanying the hype around SDCs. While driver-assist systems are fine and convenient”” there won’t be a transportation revolution until cars can reliably move around cities and highways with no input from humans with or without any passengers inside. Before we reach that point”” we may have cars that are remotely monitored and assisted by people at a central location (or even working from home). The frequency of remote interventions should drop as SDCs become more and more capable. It will be an interesting thing to see.”””

    Reply
  17. Tesla needs to pay their bills.” I think he means that Tesla’s level of debt is very concerning to investors. Since 2016 when they acquired SolarCity, their debt load has mushroomed. They have over $2 billion due on their bonds and loans next year. Yes, they are a very promising and innovative company. But they have a long, tough road ahead of them.

    Reply
  18. Tesla needs to pay their bills.”” I think he means that Tesla’s level of debt is very concerning to investors. Since 2016 when they acquired SolarCity”” their debt load has mushroomed. They have over $2 billion due on their bonds and loans next year. Yes they are a very promising and innovative company. But they have a long”” tough road ahead of them.”””

    Reply
  19. 312 million in profit last quarter, and signs that that will increase. I think they will manage the debt servicing, and if they can pull off their plans the 9 billion in total debt they have is very doable for them. They are outpacing their debt via innovation and production.

    Reply
  20. Tesla needs to pay their bills.” I think he means that Tesla’s level of debt is very concerning to investors. Since 2016 when they acquired SolarCity, their debt load has mushroomed. They have over $2 billion due on their bonds and loans next year. Yes, they are a very promising and innovative company. But they have a long, tough road ahead of them.

    Reply
  21. Tesla needs to pay their bills.”” I think he means that Tesla’s level of debt is very concerning to investors. Since 2016 when they acquired SolarCity”” their debt load has mushroomed. They have over $2 billion due on their bonds and loans next year. Yes they are a very promising and innovative company. But they have a long”” tough road ahead of them.”””

    Reply
  22. …by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving…” Agreed! We’re seeing a lot of SEA level inflation accompanying the hype around SDCs. While driver-assist systems are fine and convenient, there won’t be a transportation revolution until cars can reliably move around cities and highways with no input from humans, with or without any passengers inside. Before we reach that point, we may have cars that are remotely monitored and assisted by people at a central location (or even working from home). The frequency of remote interventions should drop as SDCs become more and more capable. It will be an interesting thing to see.

    Reply
  23. …by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving…””Agreed! We’re seeing a lot of SEA level inflation accompanying the hype around SDCs. While driver-assist systems are fine and convenient”” there won’t be a transportation revolution until cars can reliably move around cities and highways with no input from humans with or without any passengers inside. Before we reach that point”” we may have cars that are remotely monitored and assisted by people at a central location (or even working from home). The frequency of remote interventions should drop as SDCs become more and more capable. It will be an interesting thing to see.”””

    Reply
  24. I’ve got news for you, history and theory both show there is no room for human beings in socialism. Socialism is genocide, communism is only quicker. Liberty and capitalism are the same thing, and they are not any murder or thievery at all.

    Reply
  25. I’ve got news for you history and theory both show there is no room for human beings in socialism.Socialism is genocide communism is only quicker. Liberty and capitalism are the same thing and they are not any murder or thievery at all.

    Reply
  26. Tesla needs to pay their bills. Who knows. I think they will survive bit in a few years will have real competition. VW will do fine and in five years will be producing more EVs than Tesla. Tesla’s total annual production doesn’t even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year.

    Reply
  27. Tesla needs to pay their bills. Who knows. I think they will survive bit in a few years will have real competition.VW will do fine and in five years will be producing more EVs than Tesla. Tesla’s total annual production doesn’t even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year.

    Reply
  28. “Tesla needs to pay their bills.” I think he means that Tesla’s level of debt is very concerning to investors. Since 2016 when they acquired SolarCity, their debt load has mushroomed. They have over $2 billion due on their bonds and loans next year. Yes, they are a very promising and innovative company. But they have a long, tough road ahead of them.

    Reply
  29. “…by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving…”
    Agreed! We’re seeing a lot of SEA level inflation accompanying the hype around SDCs. While driver-assist systems are fine and convenient, there won’t be a transportation revolution until cars can reliably move around cities and highways with no input from humans, with or without any passengers inside. Before we reach that point, we may have cars that are remotely monitored and assisted by people at a central location (or even working from home). The frequency of remote interventions should drop as SDCs become more and more capable. It will be an interesting thing to see.

    Reply
  30. Capitalism delivers clean, fast, efficient vehicles. Socialism delivers starvation and poverty. Therefore this is proof that we need socialism. Logic?

    Reply
  31. Capitalism delivers clean fast efficient vehicles. Socialism delivers starvation and poverty. Therefore this is proof that we need socialism.Logic?

    Reply
  32. Socialism or genocide? No. From experience. Socialism is like genocide. Socialism always “turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.” You did not read about Venezuela? You did not experience Holodomor. China does not have laws for much safety. So those Models 3 will be cheaper? 🙂 I am old, and hoping for the good self-driving car here.

    Reply
  33. Socialism or genocide? No. From experience. Socialism is like genocide. Socialism always turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.”” You did not read about Venezuela? You did not experience Holodomor. China does not have laws for much safety. So those Models 3 will be cheaper? 🙂 I am old”””” and hoping for the good self-driving car here.”””

    Reply
  34. They can increase their computer by 10 or 1,000,000 times for that matter and if the their software or set of senors isn’t up to the task then their cars won’t be capable of self driving. Note, by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving which I assume is their definition of full self driving (equating full self driving to anything less than level 5 would be dishonest.)

    Reply
  35. They can increase their computer by 10 or 1000000 times for that matter and if the their software or set of senors isn’t up to the task then their cars won’t be capable of self driving. Note by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving which I assume is their definition of full self driving (equating full self driving to anything less than level 5 would be dishonest.)

    Reply
  36. Capitalism turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation. We had a good run, but it’s over. It’s socialism or genocide and that’s it.

    Reply
  37. Capitalism turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.We had a good run but it’s over. It’s socialism or genocide and that’s it.

    Reply
  38. Where are the skeptics now? Tesla is in profit. We were told that Tesla will absolutely go bankrupt in the next few months by fake media and that every car is costing them more than they sell it for. They will absolutely destroy any legacy car company. I will be laughing especially at VW, they deserve it after putting so much dirty diesel on roads here in Europe. “totally clean diesel, buy it! its good for your lungs” 🙂

    Reply
  39. Where are the skeptics now? Tesla is in profit. We were told that Tesla will absolutely go bankrupt in the next few months by fake media and that every car is costing them more than they sell it for. They will absolutely destroy any legacy car company. I will be laughing especially at VW they deserve it after putting so much dirty diesel on roads here in Europe. totally clean diesel”” buy it! its good for your lungs”” :)”””

    Reply
  40. ” Tesla needs to pay their bills. ” <-- Why don;t you try proving they have not or will not. " Tesla's total annual production doesn't even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year. " <-- Which would mean something if Honda were making any Accord like a Tesla, but they are not.

    Reply
  41. I’ve got news for you, history and theory both show there is no room for human beings in socialism.

    Socialism is genocide, communism is only quicker. Liberty and capitalism are the same thing, and they are not any murder or thievery at all.

    Reply
  42. Tesla needs to pay their bills. Who knows. I think they will survive bit in a few years will have real competition.

    VW will do fine and in five years will be producing more EVs than Tesla. Tesla’s total annual production doesn’t even add up to as many Accords as Honda makes in a year.

    Reply
  43. Socialism or genocide? No. From experience. Socialism is like genocide. Socialism always “turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.” You did not read about Venezuela? You did not experience Holodomor.

    China does not have laws for much safety. So those Models 3 will be cheaper? 🙂 I am old, and hoping for the good self-driving car here.

    Reply
  44. They can increase their computer by 10 or 1,000,000 times for that matter and if the their software or set of senors isn’t up to the task then their cars won’t be capable of self driving. Note, by self driving I mean SEA level 5 self driving which I assume is their definition of full self driving (equating full self driving to anything less than level 5 would be dishonest.)

    Reply
  45. Capitalism turns into a pretty dark system once one realizes that human beings are no longer a component in said equation.

    We had a good run, but it’s over. It’s socialism or genocide and that’s it.

    Reply
  46. Where are the skeptics now? Tesla is in profit. We were told that Tesla will absolutely go bankrupt in the next few months by fake media and that every car is costing them more than they sell it for.

    They will absolutely destroy any legacy car company. I will be laughing especially at VW, they deserve it after putting so much dirty diesel on roads here in Europe. “totally clean diesel, buy it! its good for your lungs” 🙂

    Reply

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