What will be the big changes from 2018 to 2028?

Over the last ten or so years there have been technological changes to our daily lives and there have been noticeable changes to our world.

Eleven years ago there was the introduction of the iPhone.
Airbnb started in 2008.
Uber started in 2009.
Bitcoin started in 2009.
SpaceX launched the Falcon 1 in 2008 successfully for the first time.
Tesla delivered about 100 Tesla Roadsters in 2008.
Skype was introduced in 2003 and had 8% of the international call market by 2008.
MySpace (126 million) was a close third in social media behind Facebook (200 million) in second and Blogger (222 million) in first in 2008.
D-Wave Systems showed a 16 qubit system in 2007 but did not have a commercial sale until 2010.
China’s GDP in 2008 was $4.5 trillion and it is about three times higher today.
The number of outbound Chinese tourists went from about 46 million to about 140 million and their spending increased by about 8 times.
India’s GDP went from $1.2 trillion to about $2.7 trillion today.
The US GDP went from $14.7 trillion to $20 trillion today.

What will happen from now to 2028?

Aerion Supersonic and Spike Aerospace are developing private supersonic jets for the wealthy and Boom Supersonic is creating a supersonic plane for less well-monied flyers.

Spike’s S-512 plane, a windowless business jet, is planned to reach speeds of Mach 1.6 (1,227mph). Aerion’s AS2 business jet will have a top cruise speed of Mach 1.4 (1,074mph). And Boom has set its sights on even faster travel: Mach 2.2 (1,687mph).

SpaceX will be many SpaceX BFR’s built and flying in frequent fully reusable flights.

There will be the start of some point to point hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFR.

SpaceX will have placed a network of over 1000 internet satellites into low earth orbit.

There should be new space habitats on the moon and in various orbits.

There will have been at least two missions to Mars.

SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.

Electric cars and trucks will have a dominant market share for new cars relative to combustion vehicles.

Self-driving cars for taxi service will also be dominant for passenger miles.

Self-driving cars, trucks, ships and drones will have transformed the global supply chain. This will boost the world economy.

There will be some drone air taxis and there will flying suit sport racing.

Artificial Intelligence and quantum computers will transform IT and logistics.

Virtual reality, augmented reality and industrial and home robotics will have become more mainstream.

Poverty will remain an issue in most of Africa and parts of South America. Asia should mostly have resolved its poverty issue other than North Korea.

About 35% of China will be richer than Portugal on a per capita basis and 10% will be in the range of Spain and Italy.

Below there is color coding of the projected per capita income.
The green is for wealthier than Spain on an exchange basis.
The reddish is for wealthier than Portugal on an exchange rate basis.
The blue is better than Croatia but less than Portugal.
The yellow is better than Russia but less than Crotia.

China’s high-speed rail network will continue to fill out in China and there will be a lot of high-speed subway connections in the megacities. There will also be belt and road connections throughout Southeast Asia, Russia and over to Europe.

Cancer deaths will be greatly reduced with cancer vaccines, CART treatments and other biotech.
Stroke and heart attack deaths will be greatly reduced with wearable devices and light-based devices to detect what kind of stroke has occurred.

There will be gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damage.

There will be successful treatments for obesity. Stem cells and other treatments will activate and add brown fat to increase metabolism.

There will be some hyperloop connections in other countries.

The leading militaries will have deployed a lot of hypersonic missiles, combat lasers and railguns. There will also be hypersonic drones.

522 thoughts on “What will be the big changes from 2018 to 2028?”

  1. While the global war deniers and their masters will kill hundreds of millions. And cause the coastal cities to be evacuated.

  2. Add one to the list of the past ten years. The iPhone was released in June 2007. Now everybody in the developed world walks around staring at their phone and Apple is a trillion dollar company.

  3. Electric cars have been around for a century. The development was lithium ion battery performance to price ratio. Air BNB, Uber, short term subletting managed by software. If you want to consider a decade with serious progress, 1958-1968. First laser, first men in orbit, commercial photovoltaic cells, first monolithic integrated circuit, effective end of polio in the US, development of measles vaccine, molten salt reactor experiment at ORNL, first reactor to operate on thorium-uranium cycle.

  4. 2028? We won’t be able to say no one’s walked on Mars, or on the Moon since Apollo anymore. 90/10 odds a fusion power demo will have been acknowledged to work just fine, and one way or the other, no one will be arguing about whether the Mach Effect works as Woodward’s math describes. 50/50 odds the “Communist Party” in China is still in power, 50/50 odds there will have been a war which throws them out. If they haven’t been thrown out, then Siberia probably has sough to become a US or UN protectorate tpo keep them from being subsumed by China. Ukraine and Poland, having been stabbed in the back by the nest Democrat administration, ally with Finland and Sweden in the 10/90 odds the full horror which cheap bioengineering makes possible has been realized with a designed plague killing 10% or more of the world’s population. We will definitely know whether Kavanaugh’s appointment to the SCOTUS began a tilt towards the constitution and liberty in American jurisprudence overturning the “living document” fraud crucial to Progressivism. Probably a quarter of the vehicles on the road will be BEV’s, and we’ll know whether mere voters have been able to restrain legislature from making level 5 self driving vehicles all but mandatory or not ( I believe not). At least one distraught believer in AGW will have committed a serious atrocity in the name of their religion, while the government of Canada is wondering how to accommodate Inuit displaced from an increasingly glacial north, while the ice patches at the top of the Rockies facing north have begun to conjoin. The tacit agreement among meteorologists is, that the sunspot trend over three solarcyales determines any trend to Earth’s random walk in climate temperature.. The conjoinment of human minds by tech like NeuralNet will have resulted in several episodes of group psychosis, while at least one set of such former individuals will insist they are one now person, but they want as many votes as they have butts. The t

  5. I like what Boom is doing. However, the problem with their airplane is that it cannot fly from the U.S. West Coast to most Asian cities on one tank of gas. It has to refuel in either Tokyo or Anchorage. This is unacceptable if I’m paying premium price to fly to Asia to do business. I actually said this on their website a couple of years ago. I want to fly supersonic from LAX to Singapore non-stop, and lots of other people with money want to do the same.

  6. I don’t know about your big changes. But my big change was between 2006 and 2011. That was when I did my ALA (alpha lipoic acid) chelation for 3 plus years. Even though I never expected it, it turned out to be an honest-to-god anti-aging treatment. Today I came back from the airport and find my next step, my senolytic compounds, on my front porch. So, mayby ’18-19 is the big change for me.

  7. While the global war deniers and their masters will kill hundreds of millions. And cause the coastal cities to be evacuated.

  8. Add one to the list of the past ten years.The iPhone was released in June 2007. Now everybody in the developed world walks around staring at their phone and Apple is a trillion dollar company.

  9. Electric cars have been around for a century. The development was lithium ion battery performance to price ratio. Air BNB Uber short term subletting managed by software.If you want to consider a decade with serious progress 1958-1968. First laser first men in orbit commercial photovoltaic cells first monolithic integrated circuit effective end of polio in the US development of measles vaccine molten salt reactor experiment at ORNL first reactor to operate on thorium-uranium cycle.

  10. 2028? We won’t be able to say no one’s walked on Mars or on the Moon since Apollo anymore.90/10 odds a fusion power demo will have been acknowledged to work just fine and one way or the other no one will be arguing about whether the Mach Effect works as Woodward’s math describes.50/50 odds the Communist Party”” in China is still in power”” 50/50 odds there will have been a war which throws them out. If they haven’t been thrown out then Siberia probably has sough to become a US or UN protectorate tpo keep them from being subsumed by China.Ukraine and Poland having been stabbed in the back by the nest Democrat administration”” ally with Finland and Sweden in the 10/90 odds the full horror which cheap bioengineering makes possible has been realized with a designed plague killing 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} or more of the world’s population.We will definitely know whether Kavanaugh’s appointment to the SCOTUS began a tilt towards the constitution and liberty in American jurisprudence overturning the “”””living document”””” fraud crucial to Progressivism.Probably a quarter of the vehicles on the road will be BEV’s”” and we’ll know whether mere voters have been able to restrain legislature from making level 5 self driving vehicles all but mandatory or not ( I believe not).At least one distraught believer in AGW will have committed a serious atrocity in the name of their religion while the government of Canada is wondering how to accommodate Inuit displaced from an increasingly glacial north while the ice patches at the top of the Rockies facing north have begun to conjoin. The tacit agreement among meteorologists is that the sunspot trend over three solarcyales determines any trend to Earth’s random walk in climate temperature..The conjoinment of human minds by tech like NeuralNet will have resulted in several episodes of group psychosis while at least one set of such former individuals wil”

  11. I like what Boom is doing. However the problem with their airplane is that it cannot fly from the U.S. West Coast to most Asian cities on one tank of gas. It has to refuel in either Tokyo or Anchorage. This is unacceptable if I’m paying premium price to fly to Asia to do business. I actually said this on their website a couple of years ago. I want to fly supersonic from LAX to Singapore non-stop and lots of other people with money want to do the same.

  12. I don’t know about your big changes. But my big change was between 2006 and 2011. That was when I did my ALA (alpha lipoic acid) chelation for 3 plus years. Even though I never expected it it turned out to be an honest-to-god anti-aging treatment.Today I came back from the airport and find my next step my senolytic compounds on my front porch. So mayby ’18-19 is the big change for me.

  13. And Igor; figuring you to be a intelligent scientific type person please cite the studies that leads you to that conclusion.

  14. The conjoinment of human minds by tech like NeuralNet will have resulted in several episodes of group psychosis, while at least one set of such former individuals will insist they are one now person, but they want as many votes as they have butts. ” Good one.

  15. China’s GDP is about equal the USA and GDP growth also about equal. China is still majority poor country outside of big cities. I predict China still does not have an equal to Falcon 9 reusable rocket system. Tesla is the biggest car company in the world by market cap. Jeff Bezos net worth well over 500 billion.

  16. According to a well researched scientific study by our greatest scientists, our technology will be 1.024 times what it is now(with a error rate of 0,005%). I am 71 and probably only saw a 20X growth factor in my whole life.

  17. 90% Chance Russian government collapses or thrown out of power by a bloody coup. Russian GDP about the same as now or lower. Ukraine’s GDP about twice what it is now and Ukraine has become a stable democratic country with growing economy driven by IT sector and farming as well as military sales.

  18. I seem to remember that the problem with ALA chelation was that yes it would pick up and transfer mercury, but it wouldn’t take it out of your body: it would drop it off in your brain, exactly the place you wouldn’t want it.

  19. Sometime between 2020-2025 every Chinese–without exception–will have a home, a job, plenty of food, education, safe streets, health and old age care. On that day there will be more homeless, poor, hungry and imprisoned people in America than in China. By then 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.

  20. And Igor; figuring you to be a intelligent scientific type person please cite the studies that leads you to that conclusion.

  21. The conjoinment of human minds by tech like NeuralNet will have resulted in several episodes of group psychosis while at least one set of such former individuals will insist they are one now person” but they want as many votes as they have butts. “”Good one.”””

  22. China’s GDP is about equal the USA and GDP growth also about equal. China is still majority poor country outside of big cities. I predict China still does not have an equal to Falcon 9 reusable rocket system. Tesla is the biggest car company in the world by market cap. Jeff Bezos net worth well over 500 billion.

  23. According to a well researched scientific study by our greatest scientists our technology will be 1.024 times what it is now(with a error rate of 0005{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}). I am 71 and probably only saw a 20X growth factor in my whole life.

  24. 90{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} Chance Russian government collapses or thrown out of power by a bloody coup. Russian GDP about the same as now or lower.Ukraine’s GDP about twice what it is now and Ukraine has become a stable democratic country with growing economy driven by IT sector and farming as well as military sales.

  25. I seem to remember that the problem with ALA chelation was that yes it would pick up and transfer mercury but it wouldn’t take it out of your body: it would drop it off in your brain exactly the place you wouldn’t want it.

  26. Sometime between 2020-2025 every Chinese–without exception–will have a home a job plenty of food education safe streets health and old age care. On that day there will be more homeless poor hungry and imprisoned people in America than in China.By then 450000000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.”

  27. Brett, there’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Plain old. Not even a motive. As to totalitarian states? In totalitarian states the leader would have the sole power to: – declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300,000 national security letters, administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture, kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. Direct the military to detain, arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in an authoritarian state would be limited by – secretly banning 50,000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation – imprisoning 2,000,000 people witout trial – executing 2,000 people each year prior to arrest. In a real totalitarian state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition No Chinese leader, including Mao, has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.

  28. It’s amazing how desperate some people are to believe propaganda from totalitarian states. It goes back to at least Duranty winning a Pulitzer prize for lying about how nice things were in the USSR.

  29. There’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Some are being re-educated after coming back from the Middle East with terrorist ideas, but even then, most attend two two-hour sessions daily and live at home.

  30. It’s uninformed by published stats from the World Bank and virtually every international agency. Study up before you talk about China.

  31. By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids. Right now, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin meet those criteria.

  32. Also, x1024 growth in 10 years means a doubling cycle of 1 year, which is faster than Moore’s law. Even electronics (transistor density etc) isn’t growing that fast, let alone most other tech. And who’s “our greatest scientists”? And who’s “we”?

  33. Some people were stupid enough even from America to go and try to help out the Reds build the New Soviet Man.

  34. Brett there’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Plain old. Not even a motive.As to totalitarian states? In totalitarian states the leader would have the sole power to:– declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300000 national security letters administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. Direct the military to detain arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in an authoritarian state would be limited by – secretly banning 50000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation– imprisoning 2000000 people witout trial– executing 2000 people each year prior to arrest.In a real totalitarian state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunitionNo Chinese leader including Mao has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.”

  35. It’s amazing how desperate some people are to believe propaganda from totalitarian states. It goes back to at least Duranty winning a Pulitzer prize for lying about how nice things were in the USSR.

  36. There’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Some are being re-educated after coming back from the Middle East with terrorist ideas but even then most attend two two-hour sessions daily and live at home.

  37. It’s uninformed by published stats from the World Bank and virtually every international agency. Study up before you talk about China.

  38. By 2021 450000000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.Right now Beijing Shanghai and Tianjin meet those criteria.”

  39. Also x1024 growth in 10 years means a doubling cycle of 1 year which is faster than Moore’s law. Even electronics (transistor density etc) isn’t growing that fast let alone most other tech. And who’s our greatest scientists””? And who’s “”””we””””?”””

  40. Why are you telling me? Prove Ray Kurzweil wrong thru scientific studies and make a name for yourself. 🙂

  41. By 2028: – LFTR reactors will be built to replace hydrocarbon power stations – IPCC will be rendered obsolete and the annual $250bn spent on renewables energy and the $500bn on tax subsidies will be used instead to cure cancer. – CRISPR technology will enable any paying customer to design their own babies. – self-driving cars are mothballed due to a rash of killer car mass deaths – Deep sea oil extraction is so successful oil prices reach $5/bbl as peak oil is pushed out indefinitely – The Tesla Museum opens up in Toyota’s headquarters – Elon Musk was last seen in orbit around Jupiter attempting to land his Roadster – Plastic in the ocean eaten by microbes, California lifts the ban on plastic straws – AI is still waiting to become intelligent – Fusion power is just around the corner – Facebook has 2 users and renamed itself to The Zuckerbergs – Google is delisted after 4 straight years of losing money as a utility – Brain implants outsell TVs, offering live streaming services directly to the prefrontal cortex – Uber is “over”.

  42. This is not a problem if you do it right. The right way is to take ALA every 3-4 hours day AND night (yeah, you have to wake your ass up) for a 3-4 day period each week. You have to do this for at least a six month period. Andy Cutler’s book at http://www.noamalgam.com) has the details. Indeed, I would buy and read the book before trying ALA chelation. In any case, we have another book coming out in about 2-3 months.

  43. 2028 China’s GDP PPP per capita larger than $40k (todays UK level) Small bases on Moon and Mars established Space telescope larger than 100m constructed EU becoming a supercountry with President with the same power as US President and strong army China catching up with US in all disciplines of tech and becoming most technologically advanced nation on Earth India becoming new China in terms of pace of development and interesting, sophisticated activity going on Rich people and celebrities in their 50’s + suddenly starting appearing and looking like 20-30 year olds Fast 3d printing of skyscrapers available First underwater cities (hotels for rich) constructed Big progress in counsciousness research Kids of late 2020’s obsessed with AR glasses like todays kids with smartphones Smartphones in current form becoming vintage tech NextBigFuture community socializing and partying in very sophisticated AR and VR spaces

  44. Compare medium priced PCs or laptops from 2008 with todays medium priced models. There is no way 1000 improvement. 20-50x at best. We have 1000x improvement only in supercomputers domain. I remember that in 2008 first petaflop supercomputer was introduced, few months ago China developed several prototypes of exaflop supercomputers and US Summit Supercomputer Broke Exaflop Barrier on Neural Net Trained to Recognize Extreme Weather Patterns Nevertheless I believe that tech progress will be speeding up, mainly thanks to China raise. The fact that they’re training so many new engineers and scientists each year + fast growth of theirs R&D budget. This year it will become larger than US and should be growing by around 10-15% per year in next decade. More engineers and scientists + people getting wealthier each passing year + accumulation of wealth and knowledge + more resources devoted to R&D = faster innovation and progress

  45. Use this link to see projection. It is NOT a virus, sales, or kooks link etc. theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf use the usual http in front of it. since you can’t post links here BTW Elon Musk, DARPA, Google ABC ETC. understand that growth and that is why some of there projects seem so far fetched.

  46. 1024X times growth study results. Study originally done by Ray Kurzweil. Kurzweil was the principal inventor of a series of firsts: the first charge-coupled device flatbed scanner the first omni-font optical character recognition the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind the first commercial text-to-speech synthesizer the Kurzweil K250 music synthesizer, capable of simulating the sound of the grand piano and other orchestral instruments the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition. And others He has received 21 honorary doctorates, and honors from three U.S. presidents. Kurzweil has been described as a “restless genius”[8] by The Wall Street Journal and “the ultimate thinking machine”[9] by Forbes. PBS included Kurzweil as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America”[10] along with other inventors of the past two centuries Now on to the study. He plotted out when each major invention were discovered since the time of Christ. All well documented. Since results are so unbelievable lots of people redid the study to prove him wrong. All got the same result. The error rate for even a 50 year projection = 50 years/ 2000 year study = 0.025% http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf

  47. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. The USSR wasn’t my idea of a fun but it was the best and fairest government in Russian history and the people were very happy with it. They were also personally much freer and more outspoken than Americans today. They would not take shit from anyone: cops, Party officials, you name it.

  48. Some people were stupid enough, even from America, to go and try to help out the Reds build the New Soviet Man.

  49. Two things will be for sure. EV and Pluggabe Hybrids will take a far greater share of the passenger car market. Renewable will take a far greater share of the electric generation market.

  50. Why are you telling me? Prove Ray Kurzweil wrong thru scientific studies and make a name for yourself. 🙂

  51. By 2028:- LFTR reactors will be built to replace hydrocarbon power stations- IPCC will be rendered obsolete and the annual $250bn spent on renewables energy andthe $500bn on tax subsidies will be used instead to cure cancer.- CRISPR technology will enable any paying customer to design their own babies.- self-driving cars are mothballed due to a rash of killer car mass deaths- Deep sea oil extraction is so successful oil prices reach $5/bbl as peak oil is pushed out indefinitely- The Tesla Museum opens up in Toyota’s headquarters – Elon Musk was last seen in orbit around Jupiter attempting to land his Roadster- Plastic in the ocean eaten by microbes California lifts the ban on plastic straws- AI is still waiting to become intelligent- Fusion power is just around the corner- Facebook has 2 users and renamed itself to The Zuckerbergs- Google is delisted after 4 straight years of losing money as a utility- Brain implants outsell TVs offering live streaming services directly to the prefrontal cortex- Uber is over””.”””

  52. This is not a problem if you do it right. The right way is to take ALA every 3-4 hours day AND night (yeah you have to wake your ass up) for a 3-4 day period each week. You have to do this for at least a six month period. Andy Cutler’s book at http://www.noamalgam.com) has the details. Indeed I would buy and read the book before trying ALA chelation. In any case we have another book coming out in about 2-3 months.

  53. 2028China’s GDP PPP per capita larger than $40k (todays UK level)Small bases on Moon and Mars establishedSpace telescope larger than 100m constructedEU becoming a supercountry with President with the same power as US President and strong armyChina catching up with US in all disciplines of tech and becoming most technologically advanced nation on EarthIndia becoming new China in terms of pace of development and interesting sophisticated activity going onRich people and celebrities in their 50’s + suddenly starting appearing and looking like 20-30 year oldsFast 3d printing of skyscrapers availableFirst underwater cities (hotels for rich) constructedBig progress in counsciousness researchKids of late 2020’s obsessed with AR glasses like todays kids with smartphonesSmartphones in current form becoming vintage techNextBigFuture community socializing and partying in very sophisticated AR and VR spaces

  54. Compare medium priced PCs or laptops from 2008 with todays medium priced models.There is no way 1000 improvement. 20-50x at best. We have 1000x improvement only in supercomputers domain. I remember that in 2008 first petaflop supercomputer was introduced few months ago China developed several prototypes of exaflop supercomputers and US Summit Supercomputer Broke Exaflop Barrier on Neural Net Trained to Recognize Extreme Weather PatternsNevertheless I believe that tech progress will be speeding up mainly thanks to China raise.The fact that they’re training so many new engineers and scientists each year + fast growth of theirs R&D budget. This year it will become larger than US and should be growing by around 10-15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year in next decade. More engineers and scientists + people getting wealthier each passing year + accumulation of wealth and knowledge + more resources devoted to R&D = faster innovation and progress

  55. Use this link to see projection. It is NOT a virus sales or kooks link etc.theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdfuse the usual http in front of it. since you can’t post links hereBTW Elon Musk DARPA Google ABC ETC. understand that growth and that is why some of there projects seem so far fetched.

  56. 1024X times growth study results.Study originally done by Ray Kurzweil.Kurzweil was the principal inventor of a series of firsts:the first charge-coupled device flatbed scannerthe first omni-font optical character recognitionthe first print-to-speech reading machine for the blindthe first commercial text-to-speech synthesizerthe Kurzweil K250 music synthesizer capable of simulating the sound of the grand piano and other orchestral instrumentsthe first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.And others He has received 21 honorary doctorates and honors from three U.S. presidents. Kurzweil has been described as a restless genius””[8] by The Wall Street Journal and “”””the ultimate thinking machine””””[9] by Forbes. PBS included Kurzweil as one of 16 “”””revolutionaries who made America””””[10] along with other inventors of the past two centuriesNow on to the study.He plotted out when each major invention were discovered since the time of Christ. All well documented.Since results are so unbelievable lots of people redid the study to prove him wrong.All got the same result.The error rate for even a 50 year projection = 50 years/ 2000 year study = 0.025{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf”””

  57. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. The USSR wasn’t my idea of a fun but it was the best and fairest government in Russian history and the people were very happy with it. They were also personally much freer and more outspoken than Americans today. They would not take shit from anyone: cops Party officials you name it.

  58. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. ” You haven’t learned a d–n thing from history even when you were looking at it. England had nothing, it was American supplies shipped to Russia and used stupidly–almost as if Stalin wanted to spend as many lives as possible–which stopped the Germans. And all humanity would have been better off if Patton had been told, “Go East and get your tank treads wet in the Pacific”.

  59. Riiightt. Rich folks on their Malibu beachfront mansions don’t seem as alarmed by such BS as you. Nor their property insurance carriers nor the real estate market for their homes (the value of which just keep going up, up, up!)

  60. – Neocolonialism is back in vogue as the US Cold War Globalized World Order is dismantled between the years 2016 – 2022. Former export ‘superpowers’ under that old system either carve out neocolonial empires to secure resource import sources and captured markets, or radically become impoverished (like South Korea will be) – After losing access to the US market, failing to militarily secure neocolonial holdings and because of a demographic bomb starting in 2019, China never busts out of the middle income trap. – Chinese wu ma program dismantled. Godfree Roberts is out of a job and Brian needs to find a replacement audience for NBF. – EU will also be mortally hit by the collapse of the US Cold War Globalized World Order. The Euro will never become an alternate reserve world currency. The US will also leave NATO or at least severely cut back on NATO spending/commitments to more like Canadian levels. – Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. – US Dollar will not only still be the world’s reserve currency, but more nations shall hard peg their (worthless) local currencies to it. Individual nations that will not only ‘survive’ but could also thrive in the coming new world disorder: – Poland – Mexico – Canada – Japan – Australia – UK – France – Turkey (possibly but looking less probably; perhaps in the 2030s then) – India (probably) and of course the top of that list will be: US of A Nations that will not do well or at least the deck will be stacked against them doing well: South Korea Taiwan Southern Europe nations South America South East Asia (with exceptions, like Singapore) Middle East (as usual) Africa (with exceptions) US will not so much as rise to the top. Instead, it will be top dog because other nations will not rise..and some will even fall down from where they are now (i.e. Chin

  61. Wow, what a change for the GOOD! President Trump’s good works extending 20 years into the future. I think as good as he is you are giving him too much credit.

  62. USA is fallen from top position economically and is crushed under debt because of the military spending and disastrous policy of the Trump era. A new Kondratieff cycle started with the break-through of fusion power. Dense Plasma Focus devices are being massed produced and Eric Lerner is the richest man in the world. In the mean time Rossi is still blogging about his E-Cat with a handful of devoted followers. Ford and GM are no more. the auto industry is being dominated by Tesla and Byd. Man has stepped on the moon once more. Malaria is a thing of the passed and the first human celebrated her 130-th birthday.

  63. You are mostly wrong: LFTR will take at less twenty years to develop to production. Renewable will be so cheap it won’t need subsidies. CRISPR may be used to cure some genetic defect but nothing else. Self-drivings cars will be a legal liability issue and not a technology issue. Climate Change will mean that the use of fossil fuel will be curtailed. You did get AI and Fusion right No brain implants, too invasive. Maybe 80 years down the line.

  64. Two things will be for sure. EV and Pluggabe Hybrids will take a far greater share of the passenger car market. Renewable will take a far greater share of the electric generation market.

  65. Ford continues-on here in USA; products are excellent. GM is doing good after an embarrassing bail-out but the products they sell today are fine (fine in the sense of a good looking woman).

  66. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. “”You haven’t learned a d–n thing from history even when you were looking at it. England had nothing”” it was American supplies shipped to Russia and used stupidly–almost as if Stalin wanted to spend as many lives as possible–which stopped the Germans. And all humanity would have been better off if Patton had been told”” “”””Go East and get your tank treads wet in the Pacific””””.”””

  67. Riiightt.Rich folks on their Malibu beachfront mansions don’t seem as alarmed by such BS as you. Nor their property insurance carriers nor the real estate market for their homes (the value of which just keep going up up up!)

  68. – Neocolonialism is back in vogue as the US Cold War Globalized World Order is dismantled between the years 2016 – 2022. Former export ‘superpowers’ under that old system either carve out neocolonial empires to secure resource import sources and captur

  69. Wow what a change for the GOOD! President Trump’s good works extending 20 years into the future. I think as good as he is you are giving him too much credit.

  70. USA is fallen from top position economically and is crushed under debt because of the military spending and disastrous policy of the Trump era. A new Kondratieff cycle started with the break-through of fusion power. Dense Plasma Focus devices are being massed produced and Eric Lerner is the richest man in the world. In the mean time Rossi is still blogging about his E-Cat with a handful of devoted followers. Ford and GM are no more. the auto industry is being dominated by Tesla and Byd. Man has stepped on the moon once more. Malaria is a thing of the passed and the first human celebrated her 130-th birthday.

  71. You are mostly wrong: LFTR will take at less twenty years to develop to production. Renewable will be so cheap it won’t need subsidies.CRISPR may be used to cure some genetic defect but nothing else.Self-drivings cars will be a legal liability issue and not a technology issue. Climate Change will mean that the use of fossil fuel will be curtailed. You did get AI and Fusion rightNo brain implants too invasive. Maybe 80 years down the line.

  72. Tesla is not for sale and never will be. Could actually happen the other way around. Tesla’s market cap will outgrow Toyota’s within 6 to 10 years and that means they will have the money at some point later to buy other companies.

  73. Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. ” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?” in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth, you probably have both.

  74. Warrentheape stands as a candidate for supreme court justice (now directly elected) on behalf of the Neo-whig party.

  75. Google “Kurzweil predictions wrong” and you’ll find heaps of examples where his predictions did NOT turn out according to his timetables, if at all. And yes, he and his supporters will hedge and wave their hands and point out that in general his predictions have tended to come true eventually, or could have come true if they weren’t stopped by non-tech reasons or something even better coming along. And this is true to a decent extent. But there is ample evidence that his timing and dates are not as precise as he makes out, even to within a decade, and that you can’t use them as more than rough guidelines.

  76. He was using the convention of a . for the break at thousands, and a , for the decimal point. Unusual in an English speaking forum, but not unknown. On the other hand, a 1024 increase accurate to 0.005% is just fantasy.

  77. If someone claims an error rate of 0.005% for a 10 year prediction about anything other than astronomical movements, they are lying. Hope that helps with deciding what to read.

  78. I’ve long argued that the person living from 1880 to the 1950s saw more significant change than the person living from 1950 to now. They went from horseback to space launches. From six-shooters to thermonukes. From slate boards to digital computers. From one-horse farms to living in the suburbs. We have… better versions of those things.

  79. Vote-per-butt legislation faces difficulties now that cheap surgery developed for gender disorders now means that political extremists can have as many butts as they can pay for and keep wiped.

  80. Tesla museum in toyota headquarters…. LOLOL. So true! I saw a model 3 today though; I wanted it. Why would LFTR reactors replace hydrocarbon power stations if oil is $5/bbl? Rhetorical.

  81. Ford continues-on here in USA; products are excellent. GM is doing good after an embarrassing bail-out, but the products they sell today are fine (fine in the sense of a good looking woman).

  82. Tesla is not for sale and never will be. Could actually happen the other way around. Tesla’s market cap will outgrow Toyota’s within 6 to 10 years and that means they will have the money at some point later to buy other companies.

  83. Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well” tho. “”.. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote:””””Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?””””in short”” if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth”” you probably have both.”””

  84. Warrentheape stands as a candidate for supreme court justice (now directly elected) on behalf of the Neo-whig party.

  85. Google Kurzweil predictions wrong”” and you’ll find heaps of examples where his predictions did NOT turn out according to his timetables”” if at all.And yes he and his supporters will hedge and wave their hands and point out that in general his predictions have tended to come true eventually or could have come true if they weren’t stopped by non-tech reasons or something even better coming along. And this is true to a decent extent.But there is ample evidence that his timing and dates are not as precise as he makes out even to within a decade”” and that you can’t use them as more than rough guidelines.”””

  86. He was using the convention of a . for the break at thousands and a for the decimal point.Unusual in an English speaking forum but not unknown.On the other hand a 1024 increase accurate to 0.005{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} is just fantasy.

  87. If someone claims an error rate of 0.005{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for a 10 year prediction about anything other than astronomical movements they are lying.Hope that helps with deciding what to read.

  88. I’ve long argued that the person living from 1880 to the 1950s saw more significant change than the person living from 1950 to now.They went from horseback to space launches. From six-shooters to thermonukes. From slate boards to digital computers. From one-horse farms to living in the suburbs.We have… better versions of those things.

  89. Vote-per-butt legislation faces difficulties now that cheap surgery developed for gender disorders now means that political extremists can have as many butts as they can pay for and keep wiped.

  90. Tesla museum in toyota headquarters…. LOLOL. So true! I saw a model 3 today though; I wanted it.Why would LFTR reactors replace hydrocarbon power stations if oil is $5/bbl? Rhetorical.

  91. LFTR tech so wonderful no one needs oil anymore, can’t even give it away. Natgas is still a vital commodity, mostly because of fertilizer production.

  92. LFTR tech so wonderful no one needs oil anymore can’t even give it away. Natgas is still a vital commodity mostly because of fertilizer production.

  93. reposting this so you’ll see it and briefly reflect on it before sending it to the memory hole. don’t bother deleting because I’ve already posted it below. Quote: ” Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. ” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?” in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth, you probably have both. pray tell what evidence do you have that tesla will fail.

  94. 29. Constantly mounting resistance (legal, regulatory, economic, social, etc.) by those favoring the status quo over the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing, nano-resource gathering, etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes 30. Substantial growth in populations that choose to live “off-the-grid” to at least some degree, such as the Amish 31. Changes in demographics, production methods, military models, climate, and economies have derailed certain countrys’thrust for superpower status 32. Due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to), some countries, particularly in the third world, will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty, disease, and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in both those and other countries will continue to blame this primarily on the greed of those in countries that are better off) 33. Risk of carbon dioxide shortages in the atmosphere, as unscrupulous individuals and less responsible countries heedlessly overharvest it for synthetic fuels and artificial photosynthesis 34. Low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing 35. Human exploration of Mars 36. Permanent lunar colony 37. Quantum computers 38. Hypersonic passenger jets 39. Widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries 40. Drones and autonomous devices will represent 90% of the U.S. military On the Shadier Side: • Squatters in Antarctica and Greenland • Frequent allegations of copyright and patent violations being committed by DIY technology users • Horrendous designer drugs • Hacking to lethal effect not uncommon • Human cloning available in some countries • Hobbyist level access to devices that can see and hear through walls, and at a considerable range • Murder tools that are almost untraceable (flying poison-tipped microbots, etc.) • Corporate AI with

  95. Let’s just go all in on this one. In 2012 I was invited (along with many others), to provide a list of predictions for 2037. I don’t currently believe all of them will come to pass but, on the other side, many seem likely to come well before then. 1. Drastic reductions in birth rates. 2. Selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca) 3. Artificial organic organs 4. Full range of prosthetic organs 5. Organ regeneration in situ 6. Cures for most major ailments causing death (Cancer, Alzheimers, Heart Disease, etc.) 7. Life extension therapies with drastic efficacy 8. Maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable 9. Gene engineering/modification of adult humans 10. Fringe groups begin to seek ways to remake themselves in various forms, semi-cetacean, arboreal, and even as Tolkien-style elves 11. Direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs, mentally and bodily) 12. Synthetic intelligence (human level or better) 13. Artificial organic life forms 14. Uplifted animals (animals raised to human level intelligence) 15. Robotic asteroid mining 16. Factory grown bulk protein and other foods 17. Nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming, mining, construction, refining) 18. Nearly complete automation in manufacturing, equipment operation, and most service industries 19. Gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000 20. 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for complete self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia) 21. Cheap or free education at all levels, attendance encouraged by government payments to students, partly just to delay people from competing for what little employment is available 22. Government provided entertainment, and possibly recreational drugs, in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent 23. Gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years, but which may lead to employment 24. Highly stratified society:

  96. reposting this so you’ll see it and briefly reflect on it before sending it to the memory hole. don’t bother deleting because I’ve already posted it below. Quote: Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well” tho. “” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “”””Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?”””” in short”” if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth”” you probably have both. pray tell what evidence do you have that tesla will fail.”””

  97. 29. Constantly mounting resistance (legal regulatory economic social etc.) by those favoring the status quo over the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing nano-resource gathering etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes 30. Substantial growth in populations that choose to live off-the-grid”” to at least some degree”””” such as the Amish 31. Changes in demographics”” production methods military models climate”” and economies have derailed certain countrys’thrust for superpower status 32. Due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to)”” some countries particularly in the third world will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty disease”” and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in both those and other countries will continue to blame this primarily on the greed of those in countries that are better off) 33. Risk of carbon dioxide shortages in the atmosphere”””” as unscrupulous individuals and less responsible countries heedlessly overharvest it for synthetic fuels and artificial photosynthesis 34. Low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing 35. Human exploration of Mars 36. Permanent lunar colony 37. Quantum computers 38. Hypersonic passenger jets 39. Widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries 40. Drones and autonomous devices will represent 90{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the U.S. military On the Shadier Side: • Squatters in Antarctica and Greenland • Frequent allegations of copyright and patent violations being committed by DIY technology users • Horrendous designer drugs • Hacking to lethal effect not uncommon • Human cloning available in some countries • Hobbyist level access to devices that can see and hear through walls”””” and at a considerable range • Murder tools that”

  98. Let’s just go all in on this one. In 2012 I was invited (along with many others) to provide a list of predictions for 2037. I don’t currently believe all of them will come to pass but on the other side many seem likely to come well before then. 1. Drastic reductions in birth rates. 2. Selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca) 3. Artificial organic organs 4. Full range of prosthetic organs 5. Organ regeneration in situ 6. Cures for most major ailments causing death (Cancer Alzheimers Heart Disease etc.) 7. Life extension therapies with drastic efficacy 8. Maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable 9. Gene engineering/modification of adult humans 10. Fringe groups begin to seek ways to remake themselves in various forms semi-cetacean arboreal and even as Tolkien-style elves 11. Direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs mentally and bodily) 12. Synthetic intelligence (human level or better) 13. Artificial organic life forms 14. Uplifted animals (animals raised to human level intelligence) 15. Robotic asteroid mining 16. Factory grown bulk protein and other foods 17. Nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming mining construction refining) 18. Nearly complete automation in manufacturing equipment operation and most service industries 19. Gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000 20. 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for complete self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia) 21. Cheap or free education at all levels attendance encouraged by government payments to students partly just to delay people from competing for what little employment is available 22. Government provided entertainment and possibly recreational drugs in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent 23. Gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years but which may lead to employment 24. Highly stratified s

  99. PART 1 The list, paraphrased for brevity: ⋅⋅⋅ Aerion Supersonic, Spike Aerospace and Boom Supersonic — supersonic passenger jets Going to be difficult: have to build the scale models, then ramp up prototypes of NEW engine designs, NEW cowling designs, NEW wing-and-aerofoil designs to minimize sonic booms. Getting “over USA” clearance is a HUGE hurdle. $billions. ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX BFR’s flying frequent reusable flights Will be something to see. I wonder whether their BFR flight schedule is already filling up. No word on that. I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a lot of Musky chatter about building a set of orbital fuel depots. Flying large ‘cryogenic bottles’ of methane and oxygen. Hooking them together into significant refueling stations. Seems obvious. ⋅⋅⋅ Hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFR I just don’t think so. Anything goes wrong, without a space suit, you die. And what, there are going to be personalized space suits for every traveler? Oh… that’s going to be cheap. ••• NOT ••• ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX brings 1000+ internet sats into LEO Could happen. The problem will always remain: channel saturation. Even if your wireless device can ‘see’ 3 sats at the same time (an geodesic tesselation of 1,000 satellites in ±55° eccentric orbits, with obliquity of 3:1 always puts 3 to 5 sats “above you”), has the problem that ONLY 3 sats are seen by everyone. Potentially hundreds of thousands of users. Supporting video rates? I don’t think so. And… what about the not-directional-transmission (“uplink”) of all our devices? ⋅⋅⋅ Moon and orbital Space habitats Orbital: yes. Moon: probably. This is the ideal PRIMARY STEPPING-STONE goal for SpaceX and maybe NASA and ESA, ISRU, etc. ⋅⋅⋅ 2+ missions to Mars I really don’t think so: if today, close of 2018, there were space refueling stations, if BFR was flying, if BFR was worrking on version 3.0 of their crew-and-exploration upper stage, if at least 1 BFR had landed on the Moon, taken back off and gotten back to Earth

  100. PART 3 ⋅⋅⋅ 35% of Chinese will as wealthy as Portugese and 10% as rich as Spanish/Italians. Good for them. ⋅⋅⋅ China’s high-speed rail will dominate Euro-Asian supercontinent. Good for them. ⋅⋅⋅ Cancer deaths will be reduced with vaccines, CART treatments and other biotech Not so sure: when one realizes that the majority of cancers are functionalized by exactly the same mechanism that enables the oocyte (“egg”) to divide, multiply, differentiate and become a baby … and that mechanism is nominally “turned off” as organisms reach maturity, when one realizes that the failure of that shutdown is what powers MOST cancers, then it should become obvious why hoping for a “vaccine” is rather far-fetched. ⋅⋅⋅ Stroke and heart attack mortality reduced with wearable and light-based devices providing specific diagnostic metrology Perhaps: but again, the majority of heart attacks come out of the blue, unannounced, no precursors, like great earthquakes on a personal basis. Same for strokes. And aneurisms. And kidneystones. And SIDs. How to ward off sudden death with sophisticated metrology when having sophisticated metrology requires HAVING it attached prior to the event? ⋅⋅⋅ Gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damage I think this will be probably coming true: we ARE getting more sophisticated at dealing with ageing. The Gene People are doing good work too discovering why-and-how the cells of a living organism gradually age, even tho’ they’re dividing properly. Could be quite the boon. Limited, of course, to the super-rich. ⋅⋅⋅ Successful treatments for obesity. Brown fat synthesis to increase metabolism Obesity? Its called FOOD INTAKE, people. I know. I was 240+ lbs only 6 months ago. Size 42 waist. Now I’m below 185. Size 36 waist. I still have 20 to go. The — absolutely only thing — that I’ve done “that works” is to radically and passionately cut my caloric intake, while maintaining a balance of

  101. PART 2 ⋅⋅⋅ Electric cars and trucks dominate market relative to ICE vehicles I wouldn’t be so sure — charging RATES and TIMES remain a sticking point. Cost of batteries, significant, and until a cheaper, more energy dense, lighter weight battery comes about, it really is a niche market. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving taxis will dominate passenger miles This I wonder about. With BAY AREA traffic insanity being perhaps indicative of the futre, I could see the whole citified First World going “taxi like New York City” did over 75 years ago. This is quite the open speculation. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving cars, trucks, ships and drones boost the world economy I don’t really think so: the human drivers are not a significant cost to the supply chain of the world. And they bring a lot of RI (real intelligence) to trucking and driving. AI has quite a way to catch up. ⋅⋅⋅ Drone air taxis Gosh… its like whatever I wrote previously is instantly forgotten. This is REALLY dependent on lots of hard-to-change things that no entity so far is large enough, well helled enough, to do. FAA certification of drones-flying-people. That’s not coming anytime soon. FAA certification of drones safely driving AS swarms, flying INTO swarms, avoiding airborne interceptors (AKA “birds”), and dealing with non-calm-wind situations. No time soon. 10 years? Mmmm… no. ⋅⋅⋅ flying-suit sport racing Hahahaha. ⋅⋅⋅ Artificial Intelligence transform IT and logistics Could be: being “more alert” (i.e. 24 hr-a-day focus) would itself step up the logistics game. But it isn’t clear in the end how AI will really transform IT itself. Most IT problems devolve into 3 categories: mundane, resource limited, capricious troubleshooting. The mundane is usually pölïtical, the resource limited is usually mechanical, and the capricious is remarkably dependent on trends and ancient esoteric knowledge. ⋅⋅⋅ Quantum computing transforms AI, genetics This IS REAL, and very likely. Quantum computing is coming along

  102. Good thing the BFR will drop a$$ first by the time it gets down to the goose population zone. Those geese will be cooked.

  103. Nice list, but as you already said, I see some of these predictions taking more than 10 years, or happening differently or not happening at all. For example, the depreciation of human labor due to AIs simply won’t happen. It’s quite the reverse that is happening. Even among manual workers there is growth, due to economic growth overall and increased demand for labor that can’t be done by machines. And that is anything actually complex a human can do that can’t be performed by a robot (that is, almost anything beyond paperwork and doing robot-like work in a chain of assembly). Same as upwards mobility becoming locked up and unavailable for most. The steady decline of extreme poverty worldwide and the domination of the global middle class are a testament to that social phase change. Soft drugs will be approved in more places, that’s for sure. But they won’t be provided by the government but au contraire, they will be sold commercially and heavily taxed, same as booze is. Government financed entertainment tends to be bland and uninteresting, market demand will still drive what is produced and sold. VR is cumbersome and annoying to do for long periods. Unless headsets improve dramatically, we won’t be seeing Ready Player One levels of popularity for it anytime soon. But it will grow and become more present for entertainment and mostly for work.

  104. in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him” I don’t have anything against Musk. I do however have a sense of humor and LOVE poking you Musk Fluffers in that way. Works every time! Sucker!

  105. PART 1The list paraphrased for brevity:⋅⋅⋅ Aerion Supersonic Spike Aerospace and Boom Supersonic — supersonic passenger jetsGoing to be difficult: have to build the scale models then ramp up prototypes of NEW engine designs NEW cowling designs NEW wing-and-aerofoil designs to minimize sonic booms. Getting over USA”” clearance is a HUGE hurdle. $billions.⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX BFR’s flying frequent reusable flightsWill be something to see. I wonder whether their BFR flight schedule is already filling up. No word on that. I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a lot of Musky chatter about building a set of orbital fuel depots. Flying large ‘cryogenic bottles’ of methane and oxygen. Hooking them together into significant refueling stations. Seems obvious.⋅⋅⋅ Hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFRI just don’t think so. Anything goes wrong”” without a space suit you die. And what there are going to be personalized space suits for every traveler? Oh… that’s going to be cheap. ••• NOT ••• ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX brings 1000+ internet sats into LEOCould happen. The problem will always remain: channel saturation. Even if your wireless device can ‘see’ 3 sats at the same time (an geodesic tesselation of 1000 satellites in ±55° eccentric orbits with obliquity of 3:1 always puts 3 to 5 sats “above you”)”” has the problem that ONLY 3 sats are seen by everyone. Potentially hundreds of thousands of users. Supporting video rates? I don’t think so. And… what about the not-directional-transmission (“”””uplink””””) of all our devices? ⋅⋅⋅ Moon and orbital Space habitatsOrbital: yes. Moon: probably. This is the ideal PRIMARY STEPPING-STONE goal for SpaceX and maybe NASA and ESA”” ISRU etc.⋅⋅⋅ 2+ missions to MarsI really don’t think so: if today close of 2018 there were space refueling stations if BFR was flying if BFR was worrking on version 3.0 of their crew-and-exploration upper stage if at least 1 BFR had landed on the Moon taken back o”

  106. PART 3⋅⋅⋅ 35{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of Chinese will as wealthy as Portugese and 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} as rich as Spanish/Italians.Good for them.⋅⋅⋅ China’s high-speed rail will dominate Euro-Asian supercontinent.Good for them.⋅⋅⋅ Cancer deaths will be reduced with vaccines CART treatments and other biotechNot so sure: when one realizes that the majority of cancers are functionalized by exactly the same mechanism that enables the oocyte (egg””) to divide”” multiply differentiate and become a baby … and that mechanism is nominally “turned off” as organisms reach maturity when one realizes that the failure of that shutdown is what powers MOST cancers then it should become obvious why hoping for a “vaccine” is rather far-fetched. ⋅⋅⋅ Stroke and heart attack mortality reduced with wearable and light-based devices providing specific diagnostic metrologyPerhaps: but again the majority of heart attacks come out of the blue unannounced no precursors like great earthquakes on a personal basis. Same for strokes. And aneurisms. And kidneystones. And SIDs. How to ward off sudden death with sophisticated metrology when having sophisticated metrology requires HAVING it attached prior to the event?⋅⋅⋅ Gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damageI think this will be probably coming true: we ARE getting more sophisticated at dealing with ageing. The Gene People are doing good work too discovering why-and-how the cells of a living organism gradually age even tho’ they’re dividing properly. Could be quite the boon. Limited of course to the super-rich.⋅⋅⋅ Successful treatments for obesity. Brown fat synthesis to increase metabolismObesity? Its called FOOD INTAKE”” people. I know. I was 240+ lbs only 6 months ago. Size 42 waist. Now I’m below 185. Size 36 waist. I still have 20 to”

  107. PART 2 ⋅⋅⋅ Electric cars and trucks dominate market relative to ICE vehiclesI wouldn’t be so sure — charging RATES and TIMES remain a sticking point. Cost of batteries significant and until a cheaper more energy dense lighter weight battery comes about it really is a niche market. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving taxis will dominate passenger milesThis I wonder about. With BAY AREA traffic insanity being perhaps indicative of the futre I could see the whole citified First World going taxi like New York City”” did over 75 years ago. This is quite the open speculation.⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving cars”” trucks ships and drones boost the world economyI don’t really think so: the human drivers are not a significant cost to the supply chain of the world. And they bring a lot of RI (real intelligence) to trucking and driving. AI has quite a way to catch up.⋅⋅⋅ Drone air taxis Gosh… its like whatever I wrote previously is instantly forgotten. This is REALLY dependent on lots of hard-to-change things that no entity so far is large enough well helled enough to do. FAA certification of drones-flying-people. That’s not coming anytime soon. FAA certification of drones safely driving AS swarms flying INTO swarms”” avoiding airborne interceptors (AKA “”””birds””””)”””” and dealing with non-calm-wind situations. No time soon. 10 years? Mmmm… no. ⋅⋅⋅ flying-suit sport racingHahahaha. ⋅⋅⋅ Artificial Intelligence transform IT and logisticsCould be: being “”””more alert”””” (i.e. 24 hr-a-day focus) would itself step up the logistics game. But it isn’t clear in the end how AI will really transform IT itself. Most IT problems devolve into 3 categories: mundane”” resource limited capricious troubleshooting. The mundane is usually pölïtical the resource limited is usually mechanical and the capricious is remarkably dependent on trends and ancient esoteric knowledge. ⋅⋅⋅ Quantum computing transforms AI geneticsThis IS REAL and very likely. Quant”

  108. Good thing the BFR will drop a$$ first by the time it gets down to the goose population zone. Those geese will be cooked.

  109. Nice list but as you already said I see some of these predictions taking more than 10 years or happening differently or not happening at all.For example the depreciation of human labor due to AIs simply won’t happen. It’s quite the reverse that is happening.Even among manual workers there is growth due to economic growth overall and increased demand for labor that can’t be done by machines. And that is anything actually complex a human can do that can’t be performed by a robot (that is almost anything beyond paperwork and doing robot-like work in a chain of assembly). Same as upwards mobility becoming locked up and unavailable for most. The steady decline of extreme poverty worldwide and the domination of the global middle class are a testament to that social phase change.Soft drugs will be approved in more places that’s for sure. But they won’t be provided by the government but au contraire they will be sold commercially and heavily taxed same as booze is. Government financed entertainment tends to be bland and uninteresting market demand will still drive what is produced and sold. VR is cumbersome and annoying to do for long periods. Unless headsets improve dramatically we won’t be seeing Ready Player One levels of popularity for it anytime soon. But it will grow and become more present for entertainment and mostly for work.

  110. in short if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk” you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him””I don’t have anything against Musk. I do however have a sense of humor and LOVE poking you Musk Fluffers in that way. Works every time!Sucker!”””

  111. I concur we will most likely be seeing cislunar trips and probably landings (manned and otherwise) coming in the next 10 years from the newfangled commercial space companies. Martian trips? yeah, unlikely for them to be anything but unmanned ones, but I will be happy to be proven wrong. Satellite constellations? yep, definitely. More manned facilities in orbit? Maybe. It would be a pity if having these big rockets didn’t entice anyone to put at least one big orbiting facility for lease. My hope is we will see several ISS equivalent or bigger manned facilities by 2028.

  112. These Musk Fluffers are all the same in this way: They even go ballistic when someone is clearly just joking about Musk.

  113. I’m with Dr. Pat. WarrenTheJurist for SCOTUS. Neowhig party. The Whiggies. Sounds like a punk rock party. Hmmm… Maybe their the future’s voice of unreason? LOL GoatGuy

  114. For truck drivers being replaced by AIs, I rather see truck drivers becoming the caretakers of packs of automated trucks following a lead, supervised by at least a couple humans at all times (so they can take turns sleeping). This can result in more goodies being transported on the roads and avoids have them completely on their own. Machines still aren’t a match to a road’s and human’s unpredictability.

  115. I concur we will most likely be seeing cislunar trips and probably landings (manned and otherwise) coming in the next 10 years from the newfangled commercial space companies.Martian trips? yeah unlikely for them to be anything but unmanned ones but I will be happy to be proven wrong.Satellite constellations? yep definitely. More manned facilities in orbit? Maybe. It would be a pity if having these big rockets didn’t entice anyone to put at least one big orbiting facility for lease. My hope is we will see several ISS equivalent or bigger manned facilities by 2028.

  116. These Musk Fluffers are all the same in this way: They even go ballistic when someone is clearly just joking about Musk.

  117. I’m with Dr. Pat. WarrenTheJurist for SCOTUS.Neowhig party.The Whiggies.Sounds like a punk rock party.Hmmm… Maybe their the future’s voice of unreason?LOLGoatGuy

  118. For truck drivers being replaced by AIs I rather see truck drivers becoming the caretakers of packs of automated trucks following a lead supervised by at least a couple humans at all times (so they can take turns sleeping).This can result in more goodies being transported on the roads and avoids have them completely on their own. Machines still aren’t a match to a road’s and human’s unpredictability.

  119. Isn’t it odd… How in this world of ours, where we have almost universally agreed between all languages (in print, in newspapers) to use the glyphs 0123456789 for our base–10 hindu-arabic numeral system … how with that kind of universal system we still have a large (and rather pointless) preference for 2.345,15 in some countries, and 2,345.15 in others? Its just silly. And being a programmer, I can tell anyone how DEFINITELY silly it is to try to write applications — especially interactive ones — that don’t have deeply imbedded country-specific conventions. Tower of Babel, we’ve created. And time, and calendars, dates of months and the order of abbreviated dates. Complete hogwash, the state-by-state adherance to or demurral from using Daylight Savings Time. There are even idiot-isms for including leap seconds … a year … every few … Whenever the astrophysicists decide we need another one. BUT by the divinely comic, some countries — and some regions — just don’t. Time. Numbers. Metric. Then there’s Metric. I want to know who the idiot was who decided that a gram is one millionth of a cubic meter of water. And that a hectare was 10,000 square meters. And that long distances are in kilometers, even when by rights they should be megameters (which absolutely NO one uses). No one seems to use ‘ares’ either, although if (hecto- ↔ 100) then an ‘are’ might be 100 square meters. Why would 1 m² be a centiare? Who’d use it? We don’t. Its bizarre. And metric’s tom-foolery with renaming and remeasuring and restating everything customary with its own essentially immorable jargon. Its bad enough that a 2 by 4 (piece of wood for building) either a 50 by 100 or a 5 by 10 (millimeters or centimeters, you choose), AND that neither the inch-measure nor the metric board is ACTUALLY its stated dimensions. No, because now it is customary to NOT have “unfinished” lumber, we no longer can get 2 × 4 planks. They’re about ⅓ inch (8 mm) less in both width and

  120. I don’t delete things. I don’t have that power. Why do people constantly say these lies? I didn’t have that power with SolidOpinion and I certainly do not have it with Fuckle. On SolidOpinion, I could assign a lot of downvotes on someone and SO may or may not then hide — not delete — that user’s posts until they paid up in SO points to get out of the dog house. But that was THEM. And even in the second implementation of SO by Brian, that stopped. “in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.” Another lie. I did, to the one you replied to me. I found this one afterward. That’s what made me wonder if I was wasting my time on a crazy person.

  121. ape, no, not posting to myself. posting to YOU but not under your comment because you have a nasty, nasty habit of deleting things you don’t like. in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.

  122. SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.” Reaction Engines’ Skylon. Just fine for regular medium payloads to LEO, and able to fly out of, and land at, more locations than the competition.

  123. Isn’t it odd…How in this world of ours where we have almost universally agreed between all languages (in print in newspapers) to use the glyphs 0123456789 for our base–10 hindu-arabic numeral system … how with that kind of universal system we still have a large (and rather pointless) preference for 2.34515 in some countries and 2345.15 in others?Its just silly. And being a programmer I can tell anyone how DEFINITELY silly it is to try to write applications — especially interactive ones — that don’t have deeply imbedded country-specific conventions. Tower of Babel we’ve created. And time and calendars dates of months and the order of abbreviated dates. Complete hogwash the state-by-state adherance to or demurral from using Daylight Savings Time. There are even idiot-isms for including leap seconds … a year … every few … Whenever the astrophysicists decide we need another one.BUT by the divinely comic some countries — and some regions — just don’t. Time.Numbers.Metric.Then there’s Metric. I want to know who the idiot was who decided that a gram is one millionth of a cubic meter of water. And that a hectare was 10000 square meters. And that long distances are in kilometers even when by rights they should be megameters (which absolutely NO one uses). No one seems to use ‘ares’ either although if (hecto- ↔ 100) then an ‘are’ might be 100 square meters. Why would 1 m² be a centiare? Who’d use it? We don’t. Its bizarre. And metric’s tom-foolery with renaming and remeasuring and restating everything customary with its own essentially immorable jargon. Its bad enough that a 2 by 4 (piece of wood for building) either a 50 by 100 or a 5 by 10 (millimeters or centimeters you choose) AND that neither the inch-measure nor the metric board is ACTUALLY its stated dimensions. No because now it is customary to NOT have unfinished”” lumber”” we no longer can get 2 × 4 planks. They’re about ⅓ inch (8 m”

  124. I don’t delete things. I don’t have that power. Why do people constantly say these lies? I didn’t have that power with SolidOpinion and I certainly do not have it with Fuckle. On SolidOpinion I could assign a lot of downvotes on someone and SO may or may not then hide — not delete — that user’s posts until they paid up in SO points to get out of the dog house. But that was THEM. And even in the second implementation of SO by Brian that stopped.in any case”” you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.””Another lie. I did”””” to the one you replied to me. I found this one afterward. That’s what made me wonder if I was wasting my time on a crazy person.”””

  125. apeno not posting to myself. posting to YOU but not under your comment because you have a nasty nasty habit of deleting things you don’t like.in any case you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.

  126. SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.””Reaction Engines’ Skylon. Just fine for regular medium payloads to LEO”” and able to fly out of and land at”” more locations than the competition.”””

  127. A very optimistic perspective on the future to say the least. I would love to see all of this come to pass. Realistically though, I might expect Quantum computing to have found a handful of consistent practical applications, a couple of supersonic/hypersonic flights being offered at select airports, and maybe SpaceX will send someone back to the moon. However, I do believe that A.I. will change the world was much as the smart phone did. We have the capability to gather mountains of data everywhere, but we cannot currently sift through it. When A.I. can scan through someone’s search history and make predictive statements about where their psychology will be in six month and what products they will need at that time, marketing will be transformed completely. Also watch for manufacturers to turn to 3-D printing in light of the fact that tariffs will drive up the cost of production in china. But ultimately, the world will be very similar to what it is today, just as our world is very similar to 2008 in most respects. Unless we see nuclear war or a pandemic that is. But then we will be lucky if we can live like we did in the early 20th century on the back end of that, assuming that the worst case scenario where humans survive at all hits.

  128. A very optimistic perspective on the future to say the least. I would love to see all of this come to pass. Realistically though I might expect Quantum computing to have found a handful of consistent practical applications a couple of supersonic/hypersonic flights being offered at select airports and maybe SpaceX will send someone back to the moon. However I do believe that A.I. will change the world was much as the smart phone did. We have the capability to gather mountains of data everywhere but we cannot currently sift through it. When A.I. can scan through someone’s search history and make predictive statements about where their psychology will be in six month and what products they will need at that time marketing will be transformed completely. Also watch for manufacturers to turn to 3-D printing in light of the fact that tariffs will drive up the cost of production in china. But ultimately the world will be very similar to what it is today just as our world is very similar to 2008 in most respects. Unless we see nuclear war or a pandemic that is. But then we will be lucky if we can live like we did in the early 20th century on the back end of that assuming that the worst case scenario where humans survive at all hits.

  129. It’s been banned in most parts of the world.

    As far as being bad? Using human cloning technology before it can make babies that are likely to be as healthy as natural born would generally be considered immoral.

    There are many good uses as well, so perhaps the bans will be released or relaxed as the technology matures but it will be a hard sell for many.

    Likewise, even before it does mature to that level, there are doubtless people who would be willing to risk it to get a baby that might grow up with all the capabilities of a famous entertainer, or athlete, or scientist, or even political/religious leader (as seen in books as far back as the 1970s, like Joshua, Son of None and The Boys From Brazil).

    Likewise, growing human clones and somehow forcing them to adulthood, or raising them naturally, for organ transplants would also tend to be considered immoral.

    There might also be people who would like to clone someone they hate or someone who is famous (or both) just so they could mistreat them.

  130. A very optimistic perspective on the future to say the least. I would love to see all of this come to pass. Realistically though, I might expect Quantum computing to have found a handful of consistent practical applications, a couple of supersonic/hypersonic flights being offered at select airports, and maybe SpaceX will send someone back to the moon. However, I do believe that A.I. will change the world was much as the smart phone did. We have the capability to gather mountains of data everywhere, but we cannot currently sift through it. When A.I. can scan through someone’s search history and make predictive statements about where their psychology will be in six month and what products they will need at that time, marketing will be transformed completely. Also watch for manufacturers to turn to 3-D printing in light of the fact that tariffs will drive up the cost of production in china. But ultimately, the world will be very similar to what it is today, just as our world is very similar to 2008 in most respects. Unless we see nuclear war or a pandemic that is. But then we will be lucky if we can live like we did in the early 20th century on the back end of that, assuming that the worst case scenario where humans survive at all hits.

  131. A very optimistic perspective on the future to say the least. I would love to see all of this come to pass. Realistically though I might expect Quantum computing to have found a handful of consistent practical applications a couple of supersonic/hypersonic flights being offered at select airports and maybe SpaceX will send someone back to the moon. However I do believe that A.I. will change the world was much as the smart phone did. We have the capability to gather mountains of data everywhere but we cannot currently sift through it. When A.I. can scan through someone’s search history and make predictive statements about where their psychology will be in six month and what products they will need at that time marketing will be transformed completely. Also watch for manufacturers to turn to 3-D printing in light of the fact that tariffs will drive up the cost of production in china. But ultimately the world will be very similar to what it is today just as our world is very similar to 2008 in most respects. Unless we see nuclear war or a pandemic that is. But then we will be lucky if we can live like we did in the early 20th century on the back end of that assuming that the worst case scenario where humans survive at all hits.

  132. “U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

    Country regains top spot in World Economic Forum rankings thanks to strong economic growth”

  133. A very optimistic perspective on the future to say the least. I would love to see all of this come to pass. Realistically though, I might expect Quantum computing to have found a handful of consistent practical applications, a couple of supersonic/hypersonic flights being offered at select airports, and maybe SpaceX will send someone back to the moon. However, I do believe that A.I. will change the world was much as the smart phone did. We have the capability to gather mountains of data everywhere, but we cannot currently sift through it. When A.I. can scan through someone’s search history and make predictive statements about where their psychology will be in six month and what products they will need at that time, marketing will be transformed completely. Also watch for manufacturers to turn to 3-D printing in light of the fact that tariffs will drive up the cost of production in china. But ultimately, the world will be very similar to what it is today, just as our world is very similar to 2008 in most respects. Unless we see nuclear war or a pandemic that is. But then we will be lucky if we can live like we did in the early 20th century on the back end of that, assuming that the worst case scenario where humans survive at all hits.

  134. Isn’t it odd… How in this world of ours, where we have almost universally agreed between all languages (in print, in newspapers) to use the glyphs 0123456789 for our base–10 hindu-arabic numeral system … how with that kind of universal system we still have a large (and rather pointless) preference for 2.345,15 in some countries, and 2,345.15 in others? Its just silly. And being a programmer, I can tell anyone how DEFINITELY silly it is to try to write applications — especially interactive ones — that don’t have deeply imbedded country-specific conventions. Tower of Babel, we’ve created. And time, and calendars, dates of months and the order of abbreviated dates. Complete hogwash, the state-by-state adherance to or demurral from using Daylight Savings Time. There are even idiot-isms for including leap seconds … a year … every few … Whenever the astrophysicists decide we need another one. BUT by the divinely comic, some countries — and some regions — just don’t. Time. Numbers. Metric. Then there’s Metric. I want to know who the idiot was who decided that a gram is one millionth of a cubic meter of water. And that a hectare was 10,000 square meters. And that long distances are in kilometers, even when by rights they should be megameters (which absolutely NO one uses). No one seems to use ‘ares’ either, although if (hecto- ↔ 100) then an ‘are’ might be 100 square meters. Why would 1 m² be a centiare? Who’d use it? We don’t. Its bizarre. And metric’s tom-foolery with renaming and remeasuring and restating everything customary with its own essentially immorable jargon. Its bad enough that a 2 by 4 (piece of wood for building) either a 50 by 100 or a 5 by 10 (millimeters or centimeters, you choose), AND that neither the inch-measure nor the metric board is ACTUALLY its stated dimensions. No, because now it is customary to NOT have “unfinished” lumber, we no longer can get 2 × 4 planks. They’re about ⅓ inch (8 mm) less in both width and

  135. Isn’t it odd…How in this world of ours where we have almost universally agreed between all languages (in print in newspapers) to use the glyphs 0123456789 for our base–10 hindu-arabic numeral system … how with that kind of universal system we still have a large (and rather pointless) preference for 2.34515 in some countries and 2345.15 in others?Its just silly. And being a programmer I can tell anyone how DEFINITELY silly it is to try to write applications — especially interactive ones — that don’t have deeply imbedded country-specific conventions. Tower of Babel we’ve created. And time and calendars dates of months and the order of abbreviated dates. Complete hogwash the state-by-state adherance to or demurral from using Daylight Savings Time. There are even idiot-isms for including leap seconds … a year … every few … Whenever the astrophysicists decide we need another one.BUT by the divinely comic some countries — and some regions — just don’t. Time.Numbers.Metric.Then there’s Metric. I want to know who the idiot was who decided that a gram is one millionth of a cubic meter of water. And that a hectare was 10000 square meters. And that long distances are in kilometers even when by rights they should be megameters (which absolutely NO one uses). No one seems to use ‘ares’ either although if (hecto- ↔ 100) then an ‘are’ might be 100 square meters. Why would 1 m² be a centiare? Who’d use it? We don’t. Its bizarre. And metric’s tom-foolery with renaming and remeasuring and restating everything customary with its own essentially immorable jargon. Its bad enough that a 2 by 4 (piece of wood for building) either a 50 by 100 or a 5 by 10 (millimeters or centimeters you choose) AND that neither the inch-measure nor the metric board is ACTUALLY its stated dimensions. No because now it is customary to NOT have unfinished”” lumber”” we no longer can get 2 × 4 planks. They’re about ⅓ inch (8 m”

  136. I don’t delete things. I don’t have that power. Why do people constantly say these lies? I didn’t have that power with SolidOpinion and I certainly do not have it with Fuckle. On SolidOpinion, I could assign a lot of downvotes on someone and SO may or may not then hide — not delete — that user’s posts until they paid up in SO points to get out of the dog house. But that was THEM. And even in the second implementation of SO by Brian, that stopped. “in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.” Another lie. I did, to the one you replied to me. I found this one afterward. That’s what made me wonder if I was wasting my time on a crazy person.

  137. I don’t delete things. I don’t have that power. Why do people constantly say these lies? I didn’t have that power with SolidOpinion and I certainly do not have it with Fuckle. On SolidOpinion I could assign a lot of downvotes on someone and SO may or may not then hide — not delete — that user’s posts until they paid up in SO points to get out of the dog house. But that was THEM. And even in the second implementation of SO by Brian that stopped.in any case”” you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.””Another lie. I did”””” to the one you replied to me. I found this one afterward. That’s what made me wonder if I was wasting my time on a crazy person.”””

  138. ape, no, not posting to myself. posting to YOU but not under your comment because you have a nasty, nasty habit of deleting things you don’t like. in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.

  139. apeno not posting to myself. posting to YOU but not under your comment because you have a nasty nasty habit of deleting things you don’t like.in any case you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.

  140. SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.” Reaction Engines’ Skylon. Just fine for regular medium payloads to LEO, and able to fly out of, and land at, more locations than the competition.

  141. SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.””Reaction Engines’ Skylon. Just fine for regular medium payloads to LEO”” and able to fly out of and land at”” more locations than the competition.”””

  142. I concur we will most likely be seeing cislunar trips and probably landings (manned and otherwise) coming in the next 10 years from the newfangled commercial space companies. Martian trips? yeah, unlikely for them to be anything but unmanned ones, but I will be happy to be proven wrong. Satellite constellations? yep, definitely. More manned facilities in orbit? Maybe. It would be a pity if having these big rockets didn’t entice anyone to put at least one big orbiting facility for lease. My hope is we will see several ISS equivalent or bigger manned facilities by 2028.

  143. I concur we will most likely be seeing cislunar trips and probably landings (manned and otherwise) coming in the next 10 years from the newfangled commercial space companies.Martian trips? yeah unlikely for them to be anything but unmanned ones but I will be happy to be proven wrong.Satellite constellations? yep definitely. More manned facilities in orbit? Maybe. It would be a pity if having these big rockets didn’t entice anyone to put at least one big orbiting facility for lease. My hope is we will see several ISS equivalent or bigger manned facilities by 2028.

  144. These Musk Fluffers are all the same in this way: They even go ballistic when someone is clearly just joking about Musk.

  145. These Musk Fluffers are all the same in this way: They even go ballistic when someone is clearly just joking about Musk.

  146. I’m with Dr. Pat. WarrenTheJurist for SCOTUS. Neowhig party. The Whiggies. Sounds like a punk rock party. Hmmm… Maybe their the future’s voice of unreason? LOL GoatGuy

  147. I’m with Dr. Pat. WarrenTheJurist for SCOTUS.Neowhig party.The Whiggies.Sounds like a punk rock party.Hmmm… Maybe their the future’s voice of unreason?LOLGoatGuy

  148. For truck drivers being replaced by AIs, I rather see truck drivers becoming the caretakers of packs of automated trucks following a lead, supervised by at least a couple humans at all times (so they can take turns sleeping). This can result in more goodies being transported on the roads and avoids have them completely on their own. Machines still aren’t a match to a road’s and human’s unpredictability.

  149. For truck drivers being replaced by AIs I rather see truck drivers becoming the caretakers of packs of automated trucks following a lead supervised by at least a couple humans at all times (so they can take turns sleeping).This can result in more goodies being transported on the roads and avoids have them completely on their own. Machines still aren’t a match to a road’s and human’s unpredictability.

  150. PART 1 The list, paraphrased for brevity: ⋅⋅⋅ Aerion Supersonic, Spike Aerospace and Boom Supersonic — supersonic passenger jets Going to be difficult: have to build the scale models, then ramp up prototypes of NEW engine designs, NEW cowling designs, NEW wing-and-aerofoil designs to minimize sonic booms. Getting “over USA” clearance is a HUGE hurdle. $billions. ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX BFR’s flying frequent reusable flights Will be something to see. I wonder whether their BFR flight schedule is already filling up. No word on that. I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a lot of Musky chatter about building a set of orbital fuel depots. Flying large ‘cryogenic bottles’ of methane and oxygen. Hooking them together into significant refueling stations. Seems obvious. ⋅⋅⋅ Hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFR I just don’t think so. Anything goes wrong, without a space suit, you die. And what, there are going to be personalized space suits for every traveler? Oh… that’s going to be cheap. ••• NOT ••• ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX brings 1000+ internet sats into LEO Could happen. The problem will always remain: channel saturation. Even if your wireless device can ‘see’ 3 sats at the same time (an geodesic tesselation of 1,000 satellites in ±55° eccentric orbits, with obliquity of 3:1 always puts 3 to 5 sats “above you”), has the problem that ONLY 3 sats are seen by everyone. Potentially hundreds of thousands of users. Supporting video rates? I don’t think so. And… what about the not-directional-transmission (“uplink”) of all our devices? ⋅⋅⋅ Moon and orbital Space habitats Orbital: yes. Moon: probably. This is the ideal PRIMARY STEPPING-STONE goal for SpaceX and maybe NASA and ESA, ISRU, etc. ⋅⋅⋅ 2+ missions to Mars I really don’t think so: if today, close of 2018, there were space refueling stations, if BFR was flying, if BFR was worrking on version 3.0 of their crew-and-exploration upper stage, if at least 1 BFR had landed on the Moon, taken back off and gotten back to Earth

  151. PART 1The list paraphrased for brevity:⋅⋅⋅ Aerion Supersonic Spike Aerospace and Boom Supersonic — supersonic passenger jetsGoing to be difficult: have to build the scale models then ramp up prototypes of NEW engine designs NEW cowling designs NEW wing-and-aerofoil designs to minimize sonic booms. Getting over USA”” clearance is a HUGE hurdle. $billions.⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX BFR’s flying frequent reusable flightsWill be something to see. I wonder whether their BFR flight schedule is already filling up. No word on that. I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a lot of Musky chatter about building a set of orbital fuel depots. Flying large ‘cryogenic bottles’ of methane and oxygen. Hooking them together into significant refueling stations. Seems obvious.⋅⋅⋅ Hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFRI just don’t think so. Anything goes wrong”” without a space suit you die. And what there are going to be personalized space suits for every traveler? Oh… that’s going to be cheap. ••• NOT ••• ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX brings 1000+ internet sats into LEOCould happen. The problem will always remain: channel saturation. Even if your wireless device can ‘see’ 3 sats at the same time (an geodesic tesselation of 1000 satellites in ±55° eccentric orbits with obliquity of 3:1 always puts 3 to 5 sats “above you”)”” has the problem that ONLY 3 sats are seen by everyone. Potentially hundreds of thousands of users. Supporting video rates? I don’t think so. And… what about the not-directional-transmission (“”””uplink””””) of all our devices? ⋅⋅⋅ Moon and orbital Space habitatsOrbital: yes. Moon: probably. This is the ideal PRIMARY STEPPING-STONE goal for SpaceX and maybe NASA and ESA”” ISRU etc.⋅⋅⋅ 2+ missions to MarsI really don’t think so: if today close of 2018 there were space refueling stations if BFR was flying if BFR was worrking on version 3.0 of their crew-and-exploration upper stage if at least 1 BFR had landed on the Moon taken back o”

  152. PART 3 ⋅⋅⋅ 35% of Chinese will as wealthy as Portugese and 10% as rich as Spanish/Italians. Good for them. ⋅⋅⋅ China’s high-speed rail will dominate Euro-Asian supercontinent. Good for them. ⋅⋅⋅ Cancer deaths will be reduced with vaccines, CART treatments and other biotech Not so sure: when one realizes that the majority of cancers are functionalized by exactly the same mechanism that enables the oocyte (“egg”) to divide, multiply, differentiate and become a baby … and that mechanism is nominally “turned off” as organisms reach maturity, when one realizes that the failure of that shutdown is what powers MOST cancers, then it should become obvious why hoping for a “vaccine” is rather far-fetched. ⋅⋅⋅ Stroke and heart attack mortality reduced with wearable and light-based devices providing specific diagnostic metrology Perhaps: but again, the majority of heart attacks come out of the blue, unannounced, no precursors, like great earthquakes on a personal basis. Same for strokes. And aneurisms. And kidneystones. And SIDs. How to ward off sudden death with sophisticated metrology when having sophisticated metrology requires HAVING it attached prior to the event? ⋅⋅⋅ Gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damage I think this will be probably coming true: we ARE getting more sophisticated at dealing with ageing. The Gene People are doing good work too discovering why-and-how the cells of a living organism gradually age, even tho’ they’re dividing properly. Could be quite the boon. Limited, of course, to the super-rich. ⋅⋅⋅ Successful treatments for obesity. Brown fat synthesis to increase metabolism Obesity? Its called FOOD INTAKE, people. I know. I was 240+ lbs only 6 months ago. Size 42 waist. Now I’m below 185. Size 36 waist. I still have 20 to go. The — absolutely only thing — that I’ve done “that works” is to radically and passionately cut my caloric intake, while maintaining a balance of

  153. PART 3⋅⋅⋅ 35{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of Chinese will as wealthy as Portugese and 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} as rich as Spanish/Italians.Good for them.⋅⋅⋅ China’s high-speed rail will dominate Euro-Asian supercontinent.Good for them.⋅⋅⋅ Cancer deaths will be reduced with vaccines CART treatments and other biotechNot so sure: when one realizes that the majority of cancers are functionalized by exactly the same mechanism that enables the oocyte (egg””) to divide”” multiply differentiate and become a baby … and that mechanism is nominally “turned off” as organisms reach maturity when one realizes that the failure of that shutdown is what powers MOST cancers then it should become obvious why hoping for a “vaccine” is rather far-fetched. ⋅⋅⋅ Stroke and heart attack mortality reduced with wearable and light-based devices providing specific diagnostic metrologyPerhaps: but again the majority of heart attacks come out of the blue unannounced no precursors like great earthquakes on a personal basis. Same for strokes. And aneurisms. And kidneystones. And SIDs. How to ward off sudden death with sophisticated metrology when having sophisticated metrology requires HAVING it attached prior to the event?⋅⋅⋅ Gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damageI think this will be probably coming true: we ARE getting more sophisticated at dealing with ageing. The Gene People are doing good work too discovering why-and-how the cells of a living organism gradually age even tho’ they’re dividing properly. Could be quite the boon. Limited of course to the super-rich.⋅⋅⋅ Successful treatments for obesity. Brown fat synthesis to increase metabolismObesity? Its called FOOD INTAKE”” people. I know. I was 240+ lbs only 6 months ago. Size 42 waist. Now I’m below 185. Size 36 waist. I still have 20 to”

  154. PART 2 ⋅⋅⋅ Electric cars and trucks dominate market relative to ICE vehicles I wouldn’t be so sure — charging RATES and TIMES remain a sticking point. Cost of batteries, significant, and until a cheaper, more energy dense, lighter weight battery comes about, it really is a niche market. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving taxis will dominate passenger miles This I wonder about. With BAY AREA traffic insanity being perhaps indicative of the futre, I could see the whole citified First World going “taxi like New York City” did over 75 years ago. This is quite the open speculation. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving cars, trucks, ships and drones boost the world economy I don’t really think so: the human drivers are not a significant cost to the supply chain of the world. And they bring a lot of RI (real intelligence) to trucking and driving. AI has quite a way to catch up. ⋅⋅⋅ Drone air taxis Gosh… its like whatever I wrote previously is instantly forgotten. This is REALLY dependent on lots of hard-to-change things that no entity so far is large enough, well helled enough, to do. FAA certification of drones-flying-people. That’s not coming anytime soon. FAA certification of drones safely driving AS swarms, flying INTO swarms, avoiding airborne interceptors (AKA “birds”), and dealing with non-calm-wind situations. No time soon. 10 years? Mmmm… no. ⋅⋅⋅ flying-suit sport racing Hahahaha. ⋅⋅⋅ Artificial Intelligence transform IT and logistics Could be: being “more alert” (i.e. 24 hr-a-day focus) would itself step up the logistics game. But it isn’t clear in the end how AI will really transform IT itself. Most IT problems devolve into 3 categories: mundane, resource limited, capricious troubleshooting. The mundane is usually pölïtical, the resource limited is usually mechanical, and the capricious is remarkably dependent on trends and ancient esoteric knowledge. ⋅⋅⋅ Quantum computing transforms AI, genetics This IS REAL, and very likely. Quantum computing is coming along

  155. PART 2 ⋅⋅⋅ Electric cars and trucks dominate market relative to ICE vehiclesI wouldn’t be so sure — charging RATES and TIMES remain a sticking point. Cost of batteries significant and until a cheaper more energy dense lighter weight battery comes about it really is a niche market. ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving taxis will dominate passenger milesThis I wonder about. With BAY AREA traffic insanity being perhaps indicative of the futre I could see the whole citified First World going taxi like New York City”” did over 75 years ago. This is quite the open speculation.⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving cars”” trucks ships and drones boost the world economyI don’t really think so: the human drivers are not a significant cost to the supply chain of the world. And they bring a lot of RI (real intelligence) to trucking and driving. AI has quite a way to catch up.⋅⋅⋅ Drone air taxis Gosh… its like whatever I wrote previously is instantly forgotten. This is REALLY dependent on lots of hard-to-change things that no entity so far is large enough well helled enough to do. FAA certification of drones-flying-people. That’s not coming anytime soon. FAA certification of drones safely driving AS swarms flying INTO swarms”” avoiding airborne interceptors (AKA “”””birds””””)”””” and dealing with non-calm-wind situations. No time soon. 10 years? Mmmm… no. ⋅⋅⋅ flying-suit sport racingHahahaha. ⋅⋅⋅ Artificial Intelligence transform IT and logisticsCould be: being “”””more alert”””” (i.e. 24 hr-a-day focus) would itself step up the logistics game. But it isn’t clear in the end how AI will really transform IT itself. Most IT problems devolve into 3 categories: mundane”” resource limited capricious troubleshooting. The mundane is usually pölïtical the resource limited is usually mechanical and the capricious is remarkably dependent on trends and ancient esoteric knowledge. ⋅⋅⋅ Quantum computing transforms AI geneticsThis IS REAL and very likely. Quant”

  156. Good thing the BFR will drop a$$ first by the time it gets down to the goose population zone. Those geese will be cooked.

  157. Good thing the BFR will drop a$$ first by the time it gets down to the goose population zone. Those geese will be cooked.

  158. Nice list, but as you already said, I see some of these predictions taking more than 10 years, or happening differently or not happening at all. For example, the depreciation of human labor due to AIs simply won’t happen. It’s quite the reverse that is happening. Even among manual workers there is growth, due to economic growth overall and increased demand for labor that can’t be done by machines. And that is anything actually complex a human can do that can’t be performed by a robot (that is, almost anything beyond paperwork and doing robot-like work in a chain of assembly). Same as upwards mobility becoming locked up and unavailable for most. The steady decline of extreme poverty worldwide and the domination of the global middle class are a testament to that social phase change. Soft drugs will be approved in more places, that’s for sure. But they won’t be provided by the government but au contraire, they will be sold commercially and heavily taxed, same as booze is. Government financed entertainment tends to be bland and uninteresting, market demand will still drive what is produced and sold. VR is cumbersome and annoying to do for long periods. Unless headsets improve dramatically, we won’t be seeing Ready Player One levels of popularity for it anytime soon. But it will grow and become more present for entertainment and mostly for work.

  159. Nice list but as you already said I see some of these predictions taking more than 10 years or happening differently or not happening at all.For example the depreciation of human labor due to AIs simply won’t happen. It’s quite the reverse that is happening.Even among manual workers there is growth due to economic growth overall and increased demand for labor that can’t be done by machines. And that is anything actually complex a human can do that can’t be performed by a robot (that is almost anything beyond paperwork and doing robot-like work in a chain of assembly). Same as upwards mobility becoming locked up and unavailable for most. The steady decline of extreme poverty worldwide and the domination of the global middle class are a testament to that social phase change.Soft drugs will be approved in more places that’s for sure. But they won’t be provided by the government but au contraire they will be sold commercially and heavily taxed same as booze is. Government financed entertainment tends to be bland and uninteresting market demand will still drive what is produced and sold. VR is cumbersome and annoying to do for long periods. Unless headsets improve dramatically we won’t be seeing Ready Player One levels of popularity for it anytime soon. But it will grow and become more present for entertainment and mostly for work.

  160. in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him” I don’t have anything against Musk. I do however have a sense of humor and LOVE poking you Musk Fluffers in that way. Works every time! Sucker!

  161. in short if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk” you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him””I don’t have anything against Musk. I do however have a sense of humor and LOVE poking you Musk Fluffers in that way. Works every time!Sucker!”””

  162. reposting this so you’ll see it and briefly reflect on it before sending it to the memory hole. don’t bother deleting because I’ve already posted it below. Quote: ” Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. ” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?” in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth, you probably have both. pray tell what evidence do you have that tesla will fail.

  163. reposting this so you’ll see it and briefly reflect on it before sending it to the memory hole. don’t bother deleting because I’ve already posted it below. Quote: Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well” tho. “” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “”””Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?”””” in short”” if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth”” you probably have both. pray tell what evidence do you have that tesla will fail.”””

  164. 29. Constantly mounting resistance (legal, regulatory, economic, social, etc.) by those favoring the status quo over the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing, nano-resource gathering, etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes 30. Substantial growth in populations that choose to live “off-the-grid” to at least some degree, such as the Amish 31. Changes in demographics, production methods, military models, climate, and economies have derailed certain countrys’thrust for superpower status 32. Due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to), some countries, particularly in the third world, will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty, disease, and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in both those and other countries will continue to blame this primarily on the greed of those in countries that are better off) 33. Risk of carbon dioxide shortages in the atmosphere, as unscrupulous individuals and less responsible countries heedlessly overharvest it for synthetic fuels and artificial photosynthesis 34. Low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing 35. Human exploration of Mars 36. Permanent lunar colony 37. Quantum computers 38. Hypersonic passenger jets 39. Widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries 40. Drones and autonomous devices will represent 90% of the U.S. military On the Shadier Side: • Squatters in Antarctica and Greenland • Frequent allegations of copyright and patent violations being committed by DIY technology users • Horrendous designer drugs • Hacking to lethal effect not uncommon • Human cloning available in some countries • Hobbyist level access to devices that can see and hear through walls, and at a considerable range • Murder tools that are almost untraceable (flying poison-tipped microbots, etc.) • Corporate AI with

  165. 29. Constantly mounting resistance (legal regulatory economic social etc.) by those favoring the status quo over the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing nano-resource gathering etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes 30. Substantial growth in populations that choose to live off-the-grid”” to at least some degree”””” such as the Amish 31. Changes in demographics”” production methods military models climate”” and economies have derailed certain countrys’thrust for superpower status 32. Due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to)”” some countries particularly in the third world will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty disease”” and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in both those and other countries will continue to blame this primarily on the greed of those in countries that are better off) 33. Risk of carbon dioxide shortages in the atmosphere”””” as unscrupulous individuals and less responsible countries heedlessly overharvest it for synthetic fuels and artificial photosynthesis 34. Low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing 35. Human exploration of Mars 36. Permanent lunar colony 37. Quantum computers 38. Hypersonic passenger jets 39. Widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries 40. Drones and autonomous devices will represent 90{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the U.S. military On the Shadier Side: • Squatters in Antarctica and Greenland • Frequent allegations of copyright and patent violations being committed by DIY technology users • Horrendous designer drugs • Hacking to lethal effect not uncommon • Human cloning available in some countries • Hobbyist level access to devices that can see and hear through walls”””” and at a considerable range • Murder tools that”

  166. Let’s just go all in on this one. In 2012 I was invited (along with many others), to provide a list of predictions for 2037. I don’t currently believe all of them will come to pass but, on the other side, many seem likely to come well before then. 1. Drastic reductions in birth rates. 2. Selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca) 3. Artificial organic organs 4. Full range of prosthetic organs 5. Organ regeneration in situ 6. Cures for most major ailments causing death (Cancer, Alzheimers, Heart Disease, etc.) 7. Life extension therapies with drastic efficacy 8. Maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable 9. Gene engineering/modification of adult humans 10. Fringe groups begin to seek ways to remake themselves in various forms, semi-cetacean, arboreal, and even as Tolkien-style elves 11. Direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs, mentally and bodily) 12. Synthetic intelligence (human level or better) 13. Artificial organic life forms 14. Uplifted animals (animals raised to human level intelligence) 15. Robotic asteroid mining 16. Factory grown bulk protein and other foods 17. Nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming, mining, construction, refining) 18. Nearly complete automation in manufacturing, equipment operation, and most service industries 19. Gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000 20. 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for complete self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia) 21. Cheap or free education at all levels, attendance encouraged by government payments to students, partly just to delay people from competing for what little employment is available 22. Government provided entertainment, and possibly recreational drugs, in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent 23. Gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years, but which may lead to employment 24. Highly stratified society:

  167. Let’s just go all in on this one. In 2012 I was invited (along with many others) to provide a list of predictions for 2037. I don’t currently believe all of them will come to pass but on the other side many seem likely to come well before then. 1. Drastic reductions in birth rates. 2. Selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca) 3. Artificial organic organs 4. Full range of prosthetic organs 5. Organ regeneration in situ 6. Cures for most major ailments causing death (Cancer Alzheimers Heart Disease etc.) 7. Life extension therapies with drastic efficacy 8. Maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable 9. Gene engineering/modification of adult humans 10. Fringe groups begin to seek ways to remake themselves in various forms semi-cetacean arboreal and even as Tolkien-style elves 11. Direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs mentally and bodily) 12. Synthetic intelligence (human level or better) 13. Artificial organic life forms 14. Uplifted animals (animals raised to human level intelligence) 15. Robotic asteroid mining 16. Factory grown bulk protein and other foods 17. Nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming mining construction refining) 18. Nearly complete automation in manufacturing equipment operation and most service industries 19. Gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000 20. 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for complete self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia) 21. Cheap or free education at all levels attendance encouraged by government payments to students partly just to delay people from competing for what little employment is available 22. Government provided entertainment and possibly recreational drugs in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent 23. Gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years but which may lead to employment 24. Highly stratified s

  168. Isn’t it odd…

    How in this world of ours, where we have almost universally agreed between all languages (in print, in newspapers) to use the glyphs 0123456789 for our base–10 hindu-arabic numeral system … how with that kind of universal system we still have a large (and rather pointless) preference for 2.345,15 in some countries, and 2,345.15 in others?

    Its just silly.

    And being a programmer, I can tell anyone how DEFINITELY silly it is to try to write applications — especially interactive ones — that don’t have deeply imbedded country-specific conventions.

    Tower of Babel, we’ve created.

    And time, and calendars, dates of months and the order of abbreviated dates.

    Complete hogwash, the state-by-state adherance to or demurral from using Daylight Savings Time.

    There are even idiot-isms for including leap seconds … a year … every few …
    Whenever the astrophysicists decide we need another one.

    BUT by the divinely comic, some countries — and some regions — just don’t.

    Time.
    Numbers.
    Metric.

    Then there’s Metric. I want to know who the idiot was who decided that a gram is one millionth of a cubic meter of water. And that a hectare was 10,000 square meters. And that long distances are in kilometers, even when by rights they should be megameters (which absolutely NO one uses). No one seems to use ‘ares’ either, although if (hecto- ↔ 100) then an ‘are’ might be 100 square meters. Why would 1 m² be a centiare? Who’d use it? We don’t. Its bizarre.

    And metric’s tom-foolery with renaming and remeasuring and restating everything customary with its own essentially immorable jargon.

    Its bad enough that a 2 by 4 (piece of wood for building) either a 50 by 100 or a 5 by 10 (millimeters or centimeters, you choose), AND that neither the inch-measure nor the metric board is ACTUALLY its stated dimensions. No, because now it is customary to NOT have “unfinished” lumber, we no longer can get 2 × 4 planks. They’re about ⅓ inch (8 mm) less in both width and thickness over their stated value.

    Universally.

    And it is so mind numbingly pointless to pick up European cookbook after cookbook and find that all the older ‘customary’ recipe measures (spoons, cups, bushels, pounds and even older, pecks) have been dutifully translated to 3 digits of precision metric values. Which of course is just pointless: without exception, there are no recipes that call for 3 digits, let alone a full 2 digits of precision.

    Oh well.
    I’ve waxed ineloquent long enough.

    Just saying,
    GoatGuy

  169. I don’t delete things. I don’t have that power. Why do people constantly say these lies? I didn’t have that power with SolidOpinion and I certainly do not have it with Fuckle. On SolidOpinion, I could assign a lot of downvotes on someone and SO may or may not then hide — not delete — that user’s posts until they paid up in SO points to get out of the dog house. But that was THEM. And even in the second implementation of SO by Brian, that stopped.

    “in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.”

    Another lie. I did, to the one you replied to me. I found this one afterward. That’s what made me wonder if I was wasting my time on a crazy person.

  170. ape,

    no, not posting to myself. posting to YOU but not under your comment because you have a nasty, nasty habit of deleting things you don’t like.

    in any case, you aren’t even beginning to address the contents of my post – as usual.

  171. “SpaceX will have some competition from reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China.”

    Reaction Engines’ Skylon. Just fine for regular medium payloads to LEO, and able to fly out of, and land at, more locations than the competition.

  172. LFTR tech so wonderful no one needs oil anymore, can’t even give it away. Natgas is still a vital commodity, mostly because of fertilizer production.

  173. LFTR tech so wonderful no one needs oil anymore can’t even give it away. Natgas is still a vital commodity mostly because of fertilizer production.

  174. I concur we will most likely be seeing cislunar trips and probably landings (manned and otherwise) coming in the next 10 years from the newfangled commercial space companies.

    Martian trips? yeah, unlikely for them to be anything but unmanned ones, but I will be happy to be proven wrong.

    Satellite constellations? yep, definitely.

    More manned facilities in orbit? Maybe. It would be a pity if having these big rockets didn’t entice anyone to put at least one big orbiting facility for lease. My hope is we will see several ISS equivalent or bigger manned facilities by 2028.

  175. I’m with Dr. Pat.
    WarrenTheJurist for SCOTUS.
    Neowhig party.
    The Whiggies.

    Sounds like a punk rock party.
    Hmmm…
    Maybe their the future’s voice of unreason?

    LOL
    GoatGuy

  176. For truck drivers being replaced by AIs, I rather see truck drivers becoming the caretakers of packs of automated trucks following a lead, supervised by at least a couple humans at all times (so they can take turns sleeping).

    This can result in more goodies being transported on the roads and avoids have them completely on their own. Machines still aren’t a match to a road’s and human’s unpredictability.

  177. PART 1

    The list, paraphrased for brevity:

    ⋅⋅⋅ Aerion Supersonic, Spike Aerospace and Boom Supersonic — supersonic passenger jets

    Going to be difficult: have to build the scale models, then ramp up prototypes of NEW engine designs, NEW cowling designs, NEW wing-and-aerofoil designs to minimize sonic booms. Getting “over USA” clearance is a HUGE hurdle. $billions.

    ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX BFR’s flying frequent reusable flights

    Will be something to see. I wonder whether their BFR flight schedule is already filling up. No word on that. I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a lot of Musky chatter about building a set of orbital fuel depots. Flying large ‘cryogenic bottles’ of methane and oxygen. Hooking them together into significant refueling stations. Seems obvious.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Hypersonic travel via SpaceX BFR

    I just don’t think so. Anything goes wrong, without a space suit, you die. And what, there are going to be personalized space suits for every traveler? Oh… that’s going to be cheap. ••• NOT •••

    ⋅⋅⋅ SpaceX brings 1000+ internet sats into LEO

    Could happen. The problem will always remain: channel saturation. Even if your wireless device can ‘see’ 3 sats at the same time (an geodesic tesselation of 1,000 satellites in ±55° eccentric orbits, with obliquity of 3:1 always puts 3 to 5 sats “above you”), has the problem that ONLY 3 sats are seen by everyone. Potentially hundreds of thousands of users. Supporting video rates? I don’t think so. And… what about the not-directional-transmission (“uplink”) of all our devices?

    ⋅⋅⋅ Moon and orbital Space habitats

    Orbital: yes. Moon: probably. This is the ideal PRIMARY STEPPING-STONE goal for SpaceX and maybe NASA and ESA, ISRU, etc.

    ⋅⋅⋅ 2+ missions to Mars

    I really don’t think so: if today, close of 2018, there were space refueling stations, if BFR was flying, if BFR was worrking on version 3.0 of their crew-and-exploration upper stage, if at least 1 BFR had landed on the Moon, taken back off and gotten back to Earth… then yes. 2+ missions to Mars in next 10 years. Sure. But the milestones haven’t been placed, let alone met.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Reusable rocket competition from Blue Origin and China

    Yep. Using methane — because none of them are stupid enough to find idiotic competitive reasons not to. Meth-a-Lox has a 100:1 vacuum ISP potential over 370. Tert butadiene, 364. Propane, 362. Isobutane, 366. They’re all about the same, and methane is dâhmned cheap. Hydrogen-oxygen tho’ remains absolutely superior in all-but–3 ways. ISP of 450+ at 200:1 expansion.

  178. PART 3

    ⋅⋅⋅ 35% of Chinese will as wealthy as Portugese and 10% as rich as Spanish/Italians.

    Good for them.

    ⋅⋅⋅ China’s high-speed rail will dominate Euro-Asian supercontinent.

    Good for them.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Cancer deaths will be reduced with vaccines, CART treatments and other biotech

    Not so sure: when one realizes that the majority of cancers are functionalized by exactly the same mechanism that enables the oocyte (“egg”) to divide, multiply, differentiate and become a baby … and that mechanism is nominally “turned off” as organisms reach maturity, when one realizes that the failure of that shutdown is what powers MOST cancers, then it should become obvious why hoping for a “vaccine” is rather far-fetched.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Stroke and heart attack mortality reduced with wearable and light-based devices providing specific diagnostic metrology

    Perhaps: but again, the majority of heart attacks come out of the blue, unannounced, no precursors, like great earthquakes on a personal basis. Same for strokes. And aneurisms. And kidneystones. And SIDs. How to ward off sudden death with sophisticated metrology when having sophisticated metrology requires HAVING it attached prior to the event?

    ⋅⋅⋅ Gene therapy and other treatments for anti-aging and aging reversal and repair of aging damage

    I think this will be probably coming true: we ARE getting more sophisticated at dealing with ageing. The Gene People are doing good work too discovering why-and-how the cells of a living organism gradually age, even tho’ they’re dividing properly. Could be quite the boon. Limited, of course, to the super-rich.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Successful treatments for obesity. Brown fat synthesis to increase metabolism

    Obesity? Its called FOOD INTAKE, people. I know. I was 240+ lbs only 6 months ago. Size 42 waist. Now I’m below 185. Size 36 waist. I still have 20 to go. The — absolutely only thing — that I’ve done “that works” is to radically and passionately cut my caloric intake, while maintaining a balance of proteins, minerals, vitamins and vegetables-dominant eating. 1200 calories a day. That’s it. No drugs needed. Doctors (plural) are very happy with my progress. No nutritionist. No clubs. No programs, no memberships, no special foods. Also, no ice cream, no milk in tea or coffee, no potatoes, bread, rice, noodles, smoothies or yoghurt. No cheeses, sour cream, creamy salad dressings, thick soups, gravies, breaded anything. No fried chicken, no burgers, no mile-high deli sandwiches. No pizza, lasagna, chicken parma, hummus.

    Just saying. Its all about intake, and NOTHING else. Self control. I don’t even exercise a wink more than I used to. I’m likely to hit 165 by New Year’s.

    ⋅⋅⋅ HyperLoop system in countries other than USA

    Yep. Maybe. If the idea gets past the electric sled mode.

    ________________________________________

    Just saying,
    GoatGuy

  179. PART 2

    ⋅⋅⋅ Electric cars and trucks dominate market relative to ICE vehicles

    I wouldn’t be so sure — charging RATES and TIMES remain a sticking point. Cost of batteries, significant, and until a cheaper, more energy dense, lighter weight battery comes about, it really is a niche market.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving taxis will dominate passenger miles

    This I wonder about. With BAY AREA traffic insanity being perhaps indicative of the futre, I could see the whole citified First World going “taxi like New York City” did over 75 years ago. This is quite the open speculation.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Self-driving cars, trucks, ships and drones boost the world economy

    I don’t really think so: the human drivers are not a significant cost to the supply chain of the world. And they bring a lot of RI (real intelligence) to trucking and driving. AI has quite a way to catch up.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Drone air taxis

    Gosh… its like whatever I wrote previously is instantly forgotten. This is REALLY dependent on lots of hard-to-change things that no entity so far is large enough, well helled enough, to do. FAA certification of drones-flying-people. That’s not coming anytime soon. FAA certification of drones safely driving AS swarms, flying INTO swarms, avoiding airborne interceptors (AKA “birds”), and dealing with non-calm-wind situations. No time soon. 10 years? Mmmm… no.

    ⋅⋅⋅ flying-suit sport racing

    Hahahaha.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Artificial Intelligence transform IT and logistics

    Could be: being “more alert” (i.e. 24 hr-a-day focus) would itself step up the logistics game. But it isn’t clear in the end how AI will really transform IT itself. Most IT problems devolve into 3 categories: mundane, resource limited, capricious troubleshooting. The mundane is usually pölïtical, the resource limited is usually mechanical, and the capricious is remarkably dependent on trends and ancient esoteric knowledge.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Quantum computing transforms AI, genetics

    This IS REAL, and very likely. Quantum computing is coming along at a rocket’s pace.

    ⋅⋅⋅ Virtual and augmented reality, general robotics entering mainstream

    Sure, it makes sense: the trendlines for things like ultra-high resolution displays, 3D aural headphone tech, transparent overlays, 3D-ray-tracing-in-hardware are maturing rapidly. Its a glorious time, actually.

    ⋅⋅⋅ African and South American poverty remains. Asian poverty (other than North Korea) dissolves

    I don’t think that general Asian poverty will be whipped either. The big problem is that there ARE NOT THINGS TO DO for the great majority of presently impoverished people as it is. The future of AI and so on won’t relieve this.

  180. Nice list, but as you already said, I see some of these predictions taking more than 10 years, or happening differently or not happening at all.

    For example, the depreciation of human labor due to AIs simply won’t happen. It’s quite the reverse that is happening.

    Even among manual workers there is growth, due to economic growth overall and increased demand for labor that can’t be done by machines. And that is anything actually complex a human can do that can’t be performed by a robot (that is, almost anything beyond paperwork and doing robot-like work in a chain of assembly).

    Same as upwards mobility becoming locked up and unavailable for most. The steady decline of extreme poverty worldwide and the domination of the global middle class are a testament to that social phase change.

    Soft drugs will be approved in more places, that’s for sure. But they won’t be provided by the government but au contraire, they will be sold commercially and heavily taxed, same as booze is.

    Government financed entertainment tends to be bland and uninteresting, market demand will still drive what is produced and sold.

    VR is cumbersome and annoying to do for long periods. Unless headsets improve dramatically, we won’t be seeing Ready Player One levels of popularity for it anytime soon. But it will grow and become more present for entertainment and mostly for work.

  181. “in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him”

    I don’t have anything against Musk. I do however have a sense of humor and LOVE poking you Musk Fluffers in that way. Works every time!

    Sucker!

  182. Tesla is not for sale and never will be. Could actually happen the other way around. Tesla’s market cap will outgrow Toyota’s within 6 to 10 years and that means they will have the money at some point later to buy other companies.

  183. Tesla is not for sale and never will be. Could actually happen the other way around. Tesla’s market cap will outgrow Toyota’s within 6 to 10 years and that means they will have the money at some point later to buy other companies.

  184. reposting this so you’ll see it and briefly reflect on it before sending it to the memory hole.

    don’t bother deleting because I’ve already posted it below. Quote:

    ” Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho.

    .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote:
    “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?”

    in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him.

    to tell the truth, you probably have both. pray tell what evidence do you have that tesla will fail.

  185. Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. ” .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote: “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?” in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth, you probably have both.

  186. Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well” tho. “”.. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote:””””Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?””””in short”” if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him. to tell the truth”” you probably have both.”””

  187. 29. Constantly mounting resistance (legal, regulatory, economic, social, etc.) by those favoring the status quo over the use of mushrooming DIY technologies (3D printing, nano-resource gathering, etc.) that threaten the primacy of the owner classes
    30. Substantial growth in populations that choose to live “off-the-grid” to at least some degree, such as the Amish
    31. Changes in demographics, production methods, military models, climate, and economies have derailed certain countrys’thrust for superpower status
    32. Due to the intentional choices of their leadership (in promulgating policies for their own aggrandizement that are contrary to the expert advice they have copious access to), some countries, particularly in the third world, will continue to exist in perpetual states of grinding poverty, disease, and starvation for large segments of their people (and some people in both those and other countries will continue to blame this primarily on the greed of those in countries that are better off)
    33. Risk of carbon dioxide shortages in the atmosphere, as unscrupulous individuals and less responsible countries heedlessly overharvest it for synthetic fuels and artificial photosynthesis
    34. Low-cost nano-molecular manufacturing
    35. Human exploration of Mars
    36. Permanent lunar colony
    37. Quantum computers
    38. Hypersonic passenger jets
    39. Widespread use of autonomous self-driving vehicles in developed countries
    40. Drones and autonomous devices will represent 90% of the U.S. military

    On the Shadier Side:
    • Squatters in Antarctica and Greenland
    • Frequent allegations of copyright and patent violations being committed by DIY technology users
    • Horrendous designer drugs
    • Hacking to lethal effect not uncommon
    • Human cloning available in some countries
    • Hobbyist level access to devices that can see and hear through walls, and at a considerable range
    • Murder tools that are almost untraceable (flying poison-tipped microbots, etc.)
    • Corporate AI without mercy or compunction (observes legalities, not moralities)

  188. Let’s just go all in on this one. In 2012 I was invited (along with many others), to provide a list of predictions for 2037. I don’t currently believe all of them will come to pass but, on the other side, many seem likely to come well before then.

    1. Drastic reductions in birth rates.
    2. Selective conceptions (i.e. Gataca)
    3. Artificial organic organs
    4. Full range of prosthetic organs
    5. Organ regeneration in situ
    6. Cures for most major ailments causing death (Cancer, Alzheimers, Heart Disease, etc.)
    7. Life extension therapies with drastic efficacy
    8. Maximum human lifespan limits become unknowable
    9. Gene engineering/modification of adult humans
    10. Fringe groups begin to seek ways to remake themselves in various forms, semi-cetacean, arboreal, and even as Tolkien-style elves
    11. Direct mind-machine interfaces (true cyborgs, mentally and bodily)
    12. Synthetic intelligence (human level or better)
    13. Artificial organic life forms
    14. Uplifted animals (animals raised to human level intelligence)
    15. Robotic asteroid mining
    16. Factory grown bulk protein and other foods
    17. Nearly complete automation in all resource acquisition (farming, mining, construction, refining)
    18. Nearly complete automation in manufacturing, equipment operation, and most service industries
    19. Gross domestic production at least one or two levels of magnitude greater than in year 2000
    20. 70 to 80 percent of the population without sufficient employment for complete self-support (dole required to avoid dystopia)
    21. Cheap or free education at all levels, attendance encouraged by government payments to students, partly just to delay people from competing for what little employment is available
    22. Government provided entertainment, and possibly recreational drugs, in an attempt to keep the masses quiescent
    23. Gifted individuals offered no-pay internships (or little more than the dole) for many years, but which may lead to employment
    24. Highly stratified society: resource owners, production and information owners, highly educated and skilled professionals, relatively unskilled labor (rare), unpaid interns, self-employed, servants, gifted hobbyists, and the have-nots
    25. Upward mobility mostly limited to especially gifted, talented, or charismatic individuals (i.e. geniuses, artists of special note, top athletes, famous entertainers, lottery winners, and those who find special favor with those of higher classes)
    26. High level politicians will be almost exclusively of the owner classes
    27. Many people who spend all waking moments in virtual realities (some working, most not)
    28. Enormous controversy and unrest eclipsing all previous controversies (pro-life/pro-choice, pro-slavery/abolitionist, etc.) on the question of “What defines a human or human equivalent being that should be accorded all rights under the law?”

  189. Warrentheape stands as a candidate for supreme court justice (now directly elected) on behalf of the Neo-whig party.

  190. Warrentheape stands as a candidate for supreme court justice (now directly elected) on behalf of the Neo-whig party.

  191. Google “Kurzweil predictions wrong” and you’ll find heaps of examples where his predictions did NOT turn out according to his timetables, if at all. And yes, he and his supporters will hedge and wave their hands and point out that in general his predictions have tended to come true eventually, or could have come true if they weren’t stopped by non-tech reasons or something even better coming along. And this is true to a decent extent. But there is ample evidence that his timing and dates are not as precise as he makes out, even to within a decade, and that you can’t use them as more than rough guidelines.

  192. Google Kurzweil predictions wrong”” and you’ll find heaps of examples where his predictions did NOT turn out according to his timetables”” if at all.And yes he and his supporters will hedge and wave their hands and point out that in general his predictions have tended to come true eventually or could have come true if they weren’t stopped by non-tech reasons or something even better coming along. And this is true to a decent extent.But there is ample evidence that his timing and dates are not as precise as he makes out even to within a decade”” and that you can’t use them as more than rough guidelines.”””

  193. He was using the convention of a . for the break at thousands, and a , for the decimal point. Unusual in an English speaking forum, but not unknown. On the other hand, a 1024 increase accurate to 0.005% is just fantasy.

  194. He was using the convention of a . for the break at thousands and a for the decimal point.Unusual in an English speaking forum but not unknown.On the other hand a 1024 increase accurate to 0.005{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} is just fantasy.

  195. If someone claims an error rate of 0.005% for a 10 year prediction about anything other than astronomical movements, they are lying. Hope that helps with deciding what to read.

  196. If someone claims an error rate of 0.005{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for a 10 year prediction about anything other than astronomical movements they are lying.Hope that helps with deciding what to read.

  197. I’ve long argued that the person living from 1880 to the 1950s saw more significant change than the person living from 1950 to now. They went from horseback to space launches. From six-shooters to thermonukes. From slate boards to digital computers. From one-horse farms to living in the suburbs. We have… better versions of those things.

  198. I’ve long argued that the person living from 1880 to the 1950s saw more significant change than the person living from 1950 to now.They went from horseback to space launches. From six-shooters to thermonukes. From slate boards to digital computers. From one-horse farms to living in the suburbs.We have… better versions of those things.

  199. Vote-per-butt legislation faces difficulties now that cheap surgery developed for gender disorders now means that political extremists can have as many butts as they can pay for and keep wiped.

  200. Vote-per-butt legislation faces difficulties now that cheap surgery developed for gender disorders now means that political extremists can have as many butts as they can pay for and keep wiped.

  201. Tesla museum in toyota headquarters…. LOLOL. So true! I saw a model 3 today though; I wanted it. Why would LFTR reactors replace hydrocarbon power stations if oil is $5/bbl? Rhetorical.

  202. Tesla museum in toyota headquarters…. LOLOL. So true! I saw a model 3 today though; I wanted it.Why would LFTR reactors replace hydrocarbon power stations if oil is $5/bbl? Rhetorical.

  203. Ford continues-on here in USA; products are excellent. GM is doing good after an embarrassing bail-out, but the products they sell today are fine (fine in the sense of a good looking woman).

  204. Ford continues-on here in USA; products are excellent. GM is doing good after an embarrassing bail-out but the products they sell today are fine (fine in the sense of a good looking woman).

  205. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. ” You haven’t learned a d–n thing from history even when you were looking at it. England had nothing, it was American supplies shipped to Russia and used stupidly–almost as if Stalin wanted to spend as many lives as possible–which stopped the Germans. And all humanity would have been better off if Patton had been told, “Go East and get your tank treads wet in the Pacific”.

  206. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. “”You haven’t learned a d–n thing from history even when you were looking at it. England had nothing”” it was American supplies shipped to Russia and used stupidly–almost as if Stalin wanted to spend as many lives as possible–which stopped the Germans. And all humanity would have been better off if Patton had been told”” “”””Go East and get your tank treads wet in the Pacific””””.”””

  207. Riiightt. Rich folks on their Malibu beachfront mansions don’t seem as alarmed by such BS as you. Nor their property insurance carriers nor the real estate market for their homes (the value of which just keep going up, up, up!)

  208. Riiightt.Rich folks on their Malibu beachfront mansions don’t seem as alarmed by such BS as you. Nor their property insurance carriers nor the real estate market for their homes (the value of which just keep going up up up!)

  209. – Neocolonialism is back in vogue as the US Cold War Globalized World Order is dismantled between the years 2016 – 2022. Former export ‘superpowers’ under that old system either carve out neocolonial empires to secure resource import sources and captured markets, or radically become impoverished (like South Korea will be) – After losing access to the US market, failing to militarily secure neocolonial holdings and because of a demographic bomb starting in 2019, China never busts out of the middle income trap. – Chinese wu ma program dismantled. Godfree Roberts is out of a job and Brian needs to find a replacement audience for NBF. – EU will also be mortally hit by the collapse of the US Cold War Globalized World Order. The Euro will never become an alternate reserve world currency. The US will also leave NATO or at least severely cut back on NATO spending/commitments to more like Canadian levels. – Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho. – US Dollar will not only still be the world’s reserve currency, but more nations shall hard peg their (worthless) local currencies to it. Individual nations that will not only ‘survive’ but could also thrive in the coming new world disorder: – Poland – Mexico – Canada – Japan – Australia – UK – France – Turkey (possibly but looking less probably; perhaps in the 2030s then) – India (probably) and of course the top of that list will be: US of A Nations that will not do well or at least the deck will be stacked against them doing well: South Korea Taiwan Southern Europe nations South America South East Asia (with exceptions, like Singapore) Middle East (as usual) Africa (with exceptions) US will not so much as rise to the top. Instead, it will be top dog because other nations will not rise..and some will even fall down from where they are now (i.e. Chin

  210. – Neocolonialism is back in vogue as the US Cold War Globalized World Order is dismantled between the years 2016 – 2022. Former export ‘superpowers’ under that old system either carve out neocolonial empires to secure resource import sources and captur

  211. Wow, what a change for the GOOD! President Trump’s good works extending 20 years into the future. I think as good as he is you are giving him too much credit.

  212. Wow what a change for the GOOD! President Trump’s good works extending 20 years into the future. I think as good as he is you are giving him too much credit.

  213. USA is fallen from top position economically and is crushed under debt because of the military spending and disastrous policy of the Trump era. A new Kondratieff cycle started with the break-through of fusion power. Dense Plasma Focus devices are being massed produced and Eric Lerner is the richest man in the world. In the mean time Rossi is still blogging about his E-Cat with a handful of devoted followers. Ford and GM are no more. the auto industry is being dominated by Tesla and Byd. Man has stepped on the moon once more. Malaria is a thing of the passed and the first human celebrated her 130-th birthday.

  214. USA is fallen from top position economically and is crushed under debt because of the military spending and disastrous policy of the Trump era. A new Kondratieff cycle started with the break-through of fusion power. Dense Plasma Focus devices are being massed produced and Eric Lerner is the richest man in the world. In the mean time Rossi is still blogging about his E-Cat with a handful of devoted followers. Ford and GM are no more. the auto industry is being dominated by Tesla and Byd. Man has stepped on the moon once more. Malaria is a thing of the passed and the first human celebrated her 130-th birthday.

  215. LFTR tech so wonderful no one needs oil anymore, can’t even give it away. Natgas is still a vital commodity, mostly because of fertilizer production.

  216. You are mostly wrong: LFTR will take at less twenty years to develop to production. Renewable will be so cheap it won’t need subsidies. CRISPR may be used to cure some genetic defect but nothing else. Self-drivings cars will be a legal liability issue and not a technology issue. Climate Change will mean that the use of fossil fuel will be curtailed. You did get AI and Fusion right No brain implants, too invasive. Maybe 80 years down the line.

  217. You are mostly wrong: LFTR will take at less twenty years to develop to production. Renewable will be so cheap it won’t need subsidies.CRISPR may be used to cure some genetic defect but nothing else.Self-drivings cars will be a legal liability issue and not a technology issue. Climate Change will mean that the use of fossil fuel will be curtailed. You did get AI and Fusion rightNo brain implants too invasive. Maybe 80 years down the line.

  218. Two things will be for sure. EV and Pluggabe Hybrids will take a far greater share of the passenger car market. Renewable will take a far greater share of the electric generation market.

  219. Two things will be for sure. EV and Pluggabe Hybrids will take a far greater share of the passenger car market. Renewable will take a far greater share of the electric generation market.

  220. Tesla is not for sale and never will be. Could actually happen the other way around. Tesla’s market cap will outgrow Toyota’s within 6 to 10 years and that means they will have the money at some point later to buy other companies.

  221. Why are you telling me? Prove Ray Kurzweil wrong thru scientific studies and make a name for yourself. 🙂

  222. Why are you telling me? Prove Ray Kurzweil wrong thru scientific studies and make a name for yourself. 🙂

  223. By 2028: – LFTR reactors will be built to replace hydrocarbon power stations – IPCC will be rendered obsolete and the annual $250bn spent on renewables energy and the $500bn on tax subsidies will be used instead to cure cancer. – CRISPR technology will enable any paying customer to design their own babies. – self-driving cars are mothballed due to a rash of killer car mass deaths – Deep sea oil extraction is so successful oil prices reach $5/bbl as peak oil is pushed out indefinitely – The Tesla Museum opens up in Toyota’s headquarters – Elon Musk was last seen in orbit around Jupiter attempting to land his Roadster – Plastic in the ocean eaten by microbes, California lifts the ban on plastic straws – AI is still waiting to become intelligent – Fusion power is just around the corner – Facebook has 2 users and renamed itself to The Zuckerbergs – Google is delisted after 4 straight years of losing money as a utility – Brain implants outsell TVs, offering live streaming services directly to the prefrontal cortex – Uber is “over”.

  224. By 2028:- LFTR reactors will be built to replace hydrocarbon power stations- IPCC will be rendered obsolete and the annual $250bn spent on renewables energy andthe $500bn on tax subsidies will be used instead to cure cancer.- CRISPR technology will enable any paying customer to design their own babies.- self-driving cars are mothballed due to a rash of killer car mass deaths- Deep sea oil extraction is so successful oil prices reach $5/bbl as peak oil is pushed out indefinitely- The Tesla Museum opens up in Toyota’s headquarters – Elon Musk was last seen in orbit around Jupiter attempting to land his Roadster- Plastic in the ocean eaten by microbes California lifts the ban on plastic straws- AI is still waiting to become intelligent- Fusion power is just around the corner- Facebook has 2 users and renamed itself to The Zuckerbergs- Google is delisted after 4 straight years of losing money as a utility- Brain implants outsell TVs offering live streaming services directly to the prefrontal cortex- Uber is over””.”””

  225. This is not a problem if you do it right. The right way is to take ALA every 3-4 hours day AND night (yeah, you have to wake your ass up) for a 3-4 day period each week. You have to do this for at least a six month period. Andy Cutler’s book at http://www.noamalgam.com) has the details. Indeed, I would buy and read the book before trying ALA chelation. In any case, we have another book coming out in about 2-3 months.

  226. This is not a problem if you do it right. The right way is to take ALA every 3-4 hours day AND night (yeah you have to wake your ass up) for a 3-4 day period each week. You have to do this for at least a six month period. Andy Cutler’s book at http://www.noamalgam.com) has the details. Indeed I would buy and read the book before trying ALA chelation. In any case we have another book coming out in about 2-3 months.

  227. ” Tesla will be no more and instead taught in business schools alongside ‘Enron’ and ‘Ponzi’. Musk will be living in John McAffee’s old jungle hole in Belize. The electric car market will be doing well, tho.

    .. and you say that you have nothing against elon musk.. I quote:
    “Describe how I have this ‘pathological hatred’ for Musk when I expressed nothing that would give anyone with decent reading comprehension skills that impression?”

    in short, if you don’t have a pathological hatred for musk, you sure as hell has a pathologic distrust of him.

    to tell the truth, you probably have both.

  228. 2028 China’s GDP PPP per capita larger than $40k (todays UK level) Small bases on Moon and Mars established Space telescope larger than 100m constructed EU becoming a supercountry with President with the same power as US President and strong army China catching up with US in all disciplines of tech and becoming most technologically advanced nation on Earth India becoming new China in terms of pace of development and interesting, sophisticated activity going on Rich people and celebrities in their 50’s + suddenly starting appearing and looking like 20-30 year olds Fast 3d printing of skyscrapers available First underwater cities (hotels for rich) constructed Big progress in counsciousness research Kids of late 2020’s obsessed with AR glasses like todays kids with smartphones Smartphones in current form becoming vintage tech NextBigFuture community socializing and partying in very sophisticated AR and VR spaces

  229. 2028China’s GDP PPP per capita larger than $40k (todays UK level)Small bases on Moon and Mars establishedSpace telescope larger than 100m constructedEU becoming a supercountry with President with the same power as US President and strong armyChina catching up with US in all disciplines of tech and becoming most technologically advanced nation on EarthIndia becoming new China in terms of pace of development and interesting sophisticated activity going onRich people and celebrities in their 50’s + suddenly starting appearing and looking like 20-30 year oldsFast 3d printing of skyscrapers availableFirst underwater cities (hotels for rich) constructedBig progress in counsciousness researchKids of late 2020’s obsessed with AR glasses like todays kids with smartphonesSmartphones in current form becoming vintage techNextBigFuture community socializing and partying in very sophisticated AR and VR spaces

  230. Google “Kurzweil predictions wrong” and you’ll find heaps of examples where his predictions did NOT turn out according to his timetables, if at all.

    And yes, he and his supporters will hedge and wave their hands and point out that in general his predictions have tended to come true eventually, or could have come true if they weren’t stopped by non-tech reasons or something even better coming along.

    And this is true to a decent extent.

    But there is ample evidence that his timing and dates are not as precise as he makes out, even to within a decade, and that you can’t use them as more than rough guidelines.

  231. Compare medium priced PCs or laptops from 2008 with todays medium priced models. There is no way 1000 improvement. 20-50x at best. We have 1000x improvement only in supercomputers domain. I remember that in 2008 first petaflop supercomputer was introduced, few months ago China developed several prototypes of exaflop supercomputers and US Summit Supercomputer Broke Exaflop Barrier on Neural Net Trained to Recognize Extreme Weather Patterns Nevertheless I believe that tech progress will be speeding up, mainly thanks to China raise. The fact that they’re training so many new engineers and scientists each year + fast growth of theirs R&D budget. This year it will become larger than US and should be growing by around 10-15% per year in next decade. More engineers and scientists + people getting wealthier each passing year + accumulation of wealth and knowledge + more resources devoted to R&D = faster innovation and progress

  232. Compare medium priced PCs or laptops from 2008 with todays medium priced models.There is no way 1000 improvement. 20-50x at best. We have 1000x improvement only in supercomputers domain. I remember that in 2008 first petaflop supercomputer was introduced few months ago China developed several prototypes of exaflop supercomputers and US Summit Supercomputer Broke Exaflop Barrier on Neural Net Trained to Recognize Extreme Weather PatternsNevertheless I believe that tech progress will be speeding up mainly thanks to China raise.The fact that they’re training so many new engineers and scientists each year + fast growth of theirs R&D budget. This year it will become larger than US and should be growing by around 10-15{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year in next decade. More engineers and scientists + people getting wealthier each passing year + accumulation of wealth and knowledge + more resources devoted to R&D = faster innovation and progress

  233. He was using the convention of a . for the break at thousands, and a , for the decimal point.

    Unusual in an English speaking forum, but not unknown.

    On the other hand, a 1024 increase accurate to 0.005% is just fantasy.

  234. If someone claims an error rate of 0.005% for a 10 year prediction about anything other than astronomical movements, they are lying.

    Hope that helps with deciding what to read.

  235. I’ve long argued that the person living from 1880 to the 1950s saw more significant change than the person living from 1950 to now.

    They went from horseback to space launches. From six-shooters to thermonukes. From slate boards to digital computers. From one-horse farms to living in the suburbs.

    We have… better versions of those things.

  236. Vote-per-butt legislation faces difficulties now that cheap surgery developed for gender disorders now means that political extremists can have as many butts as they can pay for and keep wiped.

  237. Use this link to see projection. It is NOT a virus, sales, or kooks link etc. theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf use the usual http in front of it. since you can’t post links here BTW Elon Musk, DARPA, Google ABC ETC. understand that growth and that is why some of there projects seem so far fetched.

  238. Use this link to see projection. It is NOT a virus sales or kooks link etc.theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdfuse the usual http in front of it. since you can’t post links hereBTW Elon Musk DARPA Google ABC ETC. understand that growth and that is why some of there projects seem so far fetched.

  239. 1024X times growth study results. Study originally done by Ray Kurzweil. Kurzweil was the principal inventor of a series of firsts: the first charge-coupled device flatbed scanner the first omni-font optical character recognition the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind the first commercial text-to-speech synthesizer the Kurzweil K250 music synthesizer, capable of simulating the sound of the grand piano and other orchestral instruments the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition. And others He has received 21 honorary doctorates, and honors from three U.S. presidents. Kurzweil has been described as a “restless genius”[8] by The Wall Street Journal and “the ultimate thinking machine”[9] by Forbes. PBS included Kurzweil as one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America”[10] along with other inventors of the past two centuries Now on to the study. He plotted out when each major invention were discovered since the time of Christ. All well documented. Since results are so unbelievable lots of people redid the study to prove him wrong. All got the same result. The error rate for even a 50 year projection = 50 years/ 2000 year study = 0.025% http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf

  240. 1024X times growth study results.Study originally done by Ray Kurzweil.Kurzweil was the principal inventor of a series of firsts:the first charge-coupled device flatbed scannerthe first omni-font optical character recognitionthe first print-to-speech reading machine for the blindthe first commercial text-to-speech synthesizerthe Kurzweil K250 music synthesizer capable of simulating the sound of the grand piano and other orchestral instrumentsthe first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.And others He has received 21 honorary doctorates and honors from three U.S. presidents. Kurzweil has been described as a restless genius””[8] by The Wall Street Journal and “”””the ultimate thinking machine””””[9] by Forbes. PBS included Kurzweil as one of 16 “”””revolutionaries who made America””””[10] along with other inventors of the past two centuriesNow on to the study.He plotted out when each major invention were discovered since the time of Christ. All well documented.Since results are so unbelievable lots of people redid the study to prove him wrong.All got the same result.The error rate for even a 50 year projection = 50 years/ 2000 year study = 0.025{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}http://theemergingfuture.com/docs/Speed-Technological-Advancement.pdf”””

  241. Tesla museum in toyota headquarters…. LOLOL. So true! I saw a model 3 today though; I wanted it.

    Why would LFTR reactors replace hydrocarbon power stations if oil is $5/bbl? Rhetorical.

  242. Ford continues-on here in USA; products are excellent. GM is doing good after an embarrassing bail-out, but the products they sell today are fine (fine in the sense of a good looking woman).

  243. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. The USSR wasn’t my idea of a fun but it was the best and fairest government in Russian history and the people were very happy with it. They were also personally much freer and more outspoken than Americans today. They would not take shit from anyone: cops, Party officials, you name it.

  244. I visited the USSR not long after the New Soviet Man beat the living shit out of the Nazis and the US took credit for it. The USSR wasn’t my idea of a fun but it was the best and fairest government in Russian history and the people were very happy with it. They were also personally much freer and more outspoken than Americans today. They would not take shit from anyone: cops Party officials you name it.

  245. Some people were stupid enough, even from America, to go and try to help out the Reds build the New Soviet Man.

  246. Some people were stupid enough even from America to go and try to help out the Reds build the New Soviet Man.

  247. Brett, there’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Plain old. Not even a motive. As to totalitarian states? In totalitarian states the leader would have the sole power to: – declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300,000 national security letters, administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture, kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. Direct the military to detain, arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in an authoritarian state would be limited by – secretly banning 50,000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation – imprisoning 2,000,000 people witout trial – executing 2,000 people each year prior to arrest. In a real totalitarian state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition No Chinese leader, including Mao, has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.

  248. Brett there’s no evidence whatever of Uighur incarceration. Plain old. Not even a motive.As to totalitarian states? In totalitarian states the leader would have the sole power to:– declare war unilaterally and frequently; – issue 300000 national security letters administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served; – control information at all times than any monarch in history under the National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions. –torture kidnap and assassinate anyone anywhere at will. Direct the military to detain arrest and secretly execute American citizens. Personal freedom in an authoritarian state would be limited by – secretly banning 50000 people from flying and refusing requests for an explanation– imprisoning 2000000 people witout trial– executing 2000 people each year prior to arrest.In a real totalitarian state there would be – warrantless surveillance of private phone and email conversations by the NSA; – SWAT team raiding homes; – shootings of unarmed citizens by police; – harsh punishment of schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance; – endless wars; – out-of-control spending; – militarized police; –roadside strip searches; – roving TSA sweeps; – privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans; – fusion centers that collect and disseminate data on citizens’ private transactions; – militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunitionNo Chinese leader including Mao has ever had one such power. The US President has and exercises all of them. Regularly.”