Beyond Free IVF is a brave new world with an army of surrogates

Nextbigfuture has reported on Denmark providing free In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and having 10% of all babies from IVF. 20% of the couples in many countries have trouble having babies. This is increasing as mother delay having children until they are 40.

Older infertility can mostly be solved by freezing eggs at peak fertility in early 20s.

It is clear that many Asian countries like Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea will tell or coerce young women to freeze their eggs.

Most women 38 years of age and under can expect to harvest 10-20 eggs per cycle. It is best to harvest before 36 and ideally before 25.

Demographers have projections where China’s population declines from 1.4 billion to 1.1 billion in 2100. The 1.1 billion would also have 33-40% of the people over the age of 65.

I have noted the rapidly increasing use of IVF in China. China now has about 200,000 babies per year from IVF. Over the next ten years, China will push towards using free egg freezing and free IVF and baby bonus payments to drive up fertility rates.

It makes no sense to allow couples to drift into infertility when there is a national baby bust.

In China, maximizing egg freezing and IVF would add 40 million babies per decade from 2030 onwards and 10 million in the 2020s. This would nearly balance out the 2100 population to 1.39 billion.

Free IVF and free egg freezing could still fall short of maintaining desired population levels.

The Chinese government of government-controlled hospitals and clinics would then have billions of frozen eggs. 40% of frozen eggs go unused.

The Chinese government could choose to recruit domestic or immigrant women to act as surrogates. Those willing women could rent their womb to bring to term selected frozen eggs.

If the Asian and some European countries hold the line and prevent population decline, then the world population in 2100 would be higher. There would be 500 million to 1 billion more people in 2100.

16 thoughts on “Beyond Free IVF is a brave new world with an army of surrogates”

  1. It seems the economic pressures are universal. If people feel as though they cannot care for themselves they postpone having children. Sadly they wait, thinking it will get better and by the time it does get better they are old. If they have children when they are old there are many increased risks with the child and the parents. We need to collectively do better caring for the younger generation.

    Reply
  2. It seems the economic pressures are universal. If people feel as though they cannot care for themselves they postpone having children. Sadly they wait, thinking it will get better and by the time it does get better they are old. If they have children when they are old there are many increased risks with the child and the parents. We need to collectively do better caring for the younger generation.

    Reply
  3. As a conspiracy theory this is subtle and unusually clever. I like it.It also manages to not actually pick on any individual in particular, because the lower classes can definitely have babies if they really want to. It’s just so inconvenient that many don’t.The only flaw in the story is how the underclass manages to outscore even the 0.01%.

    Reply
  4. As a conspiracy theory this is subtle and unusually clever. I like it.

    It also manages to not actually pick on any individual in particular, because the lower classes can definitely have babies if they really want to. It’s just so inconvenient that many don’t.

    The only flaw in the story is how the underclass manages to outscore even the 0.01%.

    Reply
  5. The wealthy are creaming their pants over this.”Only WE get to have super babies because only WE can afford the treatments!”This is an entirely upgraded version of The Aryan Race experiment, it’s 100x worse.

    Reply
  6. The wealthy are creaming their pants over this.

    “Only WE get to have super babies because only WE can afford the treatments!”

    This is an entirely upgraded version of The Aryan Race experiment, it’s 100x worse.

    Reply
  7. My parents were relatively old at my birth, particularly in the 1950s. Mother 33, father 42. I think a lot of people lack the energy to raise an active child in their 50s, and 60s. Maybe by then, nannies are easier to afford. Ask some grandparents who have had grandchildren dumped on them how exhausting it is.

    Reply
  8. By 2027 the number of Chinese workers per retiree will have fallen from about 6 to about 4 – which is where the US is now. By 2040 it will haver fallen to a bit over 2 workers – about where Japan is now. Any impact of new IVF and egg storage rules won’t help the worker to retiree issue for at least 20 more years, so China will have to deal with that in some other fashion.And there are other big uncertainties – how fast smart automation will be able to kick in and replace workers, how much manufacturing work goes to other countries with cheaper labor, how soon effective and affordable life extension (but not yet age reversal, which might ultimately fix the whole issue) comes and starts aggravating the situation, etc.

    Reply
  9. I mentioned this in the article about Japan’s fertility rate, but figure it is worth repeating here. Widescale use of IVF has some extremely interesting implications from an eugenics perspective. It is possible to do a genetic screening of embryos; while today it is limited to screening for known genetic diseases, there are all sorts of studies being done to correlate genes with intelligence, height, work ethic, ability to delay gratification, and other traits parents desire in their children. It won’t be too long before a couple doing IVF will have 10-20 embryos fertilized, and then pick which one has the most desirable set of traits. And I imagine there will be less pushback against this form of eugenics, since it is the sort of thing any couple could use, rather than older methods that required restricting certain people’s reproduction.

    Reply
  10. My parents were relatively old at my birth, particularly in the 1950s. Mother 33, father 42.
    I think a lot of people lack the energy to raise an active child in their 50s, and 60s. Maybe by then, nannies are easier to afford. Ask some grandparents who have had grandchildren dumped on them how exhausting it is.

    Reply
  11. Just leave it alone…It’s like eggs for breakfast. One decade it’s bad for you the next decade it’s a superfood.One decade the population is out of control, the next decade it’s a demographic crisis with an inverted population pyramid.I think it’s great if there’s fewer people in China in 2100, and it wasn’t due to a war.Not a problem if the college educated Millennials don’t want to have children.

    Reply
  12. By 2027 the number of Chinese workers per retiree will have fallen from about 6 to about 4 – which is where the US is now. By 2040 it will haver fallen to a bit over 2 workers – about where Japan is now.

    Any impact of new IVF and egg storage rules won’t help the worker to retiree issue for at least 20 more years, so China will have to deal with that in some other fashion.

    And there are other big uncertainties – how fast smart automation will be able to kick in and replace workers, how much manufacturing work goes to other countries with cheaper labor, how soon effective and affordable life extension (but not yet age reversal, which might ultimately fix the whole issue) comes and starts aggravating the situation, etc.

    Reply
  13. I mentioned this in the article about Japan’s fertility rate, but figure it is worth repeating here. Widescale use of IVF has some extremely interesting implications from an eugenics perspective. It is possible to do a genetic screening of embryos; while today it is limited to screening for known genetic diseases, there are all sorts of studies being done to correlate genes with intelligence, height, work ethic, ability to delay gratification, and other traits parents desire in their children. It won’t be too long before a couple doing IVF will have 10-20 embryos fertilized, and then pick which one has the most desirable set of traits. And I imagine there will be less pushback against this form of eugenics, since it is the sort of thing any couple could use, rather than older methods that required restricting certain people’s reproduction.

    Reply
  14. Just leave it alone…

    It’s like eggs for breakfast. One decade it’s bad for you the next decade it’s a superfood.

    One decade the population is out of control, the next decade it’s a demographic crisis with an inverted population pyramid.

    I think it’s great if there’s fewer people in China in 2100, and it wasn’t due to a war.

    Not a problem if the college educated Millennials don’t want to have children.

    Reply

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