There are huge multi-trillion dollar opportunities developing with Space and the further evolution of the internet.
Space launch and space satellites were already a $300 billion per year industry. Cloud Computing is a $200 billion market in 2018. Global Internet services is a $600 billion market. The Global IT market is nearing $5 trillion in size. The global Auto industry is $2 trillion in size. The Global supply chain industry is $40 trillion in size.
Space launch, Internet and communication, Internet of Things, Space mining, Space Colonization will each become future multi-trillion markets. Those that are already trillion dollar markets will become even larger.
Space will have a growing role in transforming IT, data and communications, finance, transportation and supply chains. Space-related technology will also transform cities.
Bezos and Musk
Jeff Bezos is already worth $130 billion and has been worth over $168 billion before the pullback in Amazon stock prices. Bezos is clearly winning with eCommerce and cloud computing. He is making big moves revamping the global supply chain.
Elon Musk with Spacex is ahead of Bezos Blue Origin in Space Launch. SpaceX is turning space launch into something that will be bigger than commercial aviation with reusable rockets.
Elon is transforming cars with Tesla electric cars and a new train like transportation alternative with hyperloop and tunnels. Tunnels will also transform cities, sewers, water and other infrastructure.
Data and IT will have bigger roles in supply chain and finance. Space is becoming an enabling aspect of all of those areas and there is a convergence of AI, data, transportation, energy, finance and smart devices. Musk and Bezos are both playing in many of the converging areas. Many observers would say why is Musk or Bezos playing in so many different areas. The areas and companies can or will all connect and converge.
These existing and new areas are too large for even Bezos and Musk to achieve any monopolies. However, they can achieve dominant and profitable positions in some new areas. This will be vastly profitable and will help them win more in other areas.
There will be competitors from China and the entire world of entrepreneurs and business but Musk and Bezos seemed destined to be the first trillionaires.
Business Titans of the last Century
The 20th century was all about oil, cars, airplanes, electricity and phones.
The business titans at the start of the 20th century were John D Rockefeller and Henry Ford. Rockefeller had an inflation adjust net worth of $400 billion in 1913. Rockefeller had a peak of 90% of the US oil industry and about 1.5 to 2% of the US GDP. Henry Ford developed mass production and popularized the car. Ford had a peak net worth of $200 billion.
Aviation and Telecommunications became bigger in the latter part of the 20th century. There were telecom moguls and aviation moguls but none had anywhere near a monopolistic position. Telecom had ATT and national companies instead of individuals owners.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
What does that have to do with what PurpleBasketball sez?
Nothing.
Why should we need to create trillionaires to colonize space?
…or will the poorest people be millionaires?
VERY GOOD, SUCCESS FOR YOU.
It’s funny, bcause Tesla paid that bailout back, with interest. So your point is moot.
You are missing the trillion-dollar energy market. There is 4-10 times as much solar energy in space compared to places on Earth, and if you avoid the Earth’s shadow, it is daylight all the time. Space industry will eventually produce 98-99% of its products from local materials. Satellites that beam energy to Earth produce about 100W/kg. 1-2% of that is 0.1-0.2 mg from Earth per Watt. At three times BFR launch cost goal ($20M/launch), transportation is 2-4 cents/Watt. Current solar and wind on the ground is $4/average Watt, so launch will be a negligible cost overhead.
What’s 24-hour clean energy delivered anywhere on Earth worth?
Obviously, there is a lot of work to do before this is economically viable. First get launch costs down, then bootstrap space mining and industry. Assuming you want a TeraWatt beamed down, that’s 10 million tons of satellites, and probably 3-10 times that in raw ores. It’s 100,000 to 200,000 tons from Earth, or 1-2,000 BFR launches.
1 TW around the clock is 8.76 billion MWh. One MWh goes for $30-50 these days, so we are talking $260-438 B/yr. Civilzation consumes 20 TW currently, so you don’t have to capture the whole energy market.
What about them?
How does all those wrongs make another wrong a right? Unless you are a Musk Fluffer.
The Amazon initiative into the health-business could be another huge opportunity increasing Jeffs fortune significantly.
What about GM, the aggri corporations, and a hundred other businesses the US and everyone elose bails out each year? Wait you talking about that bail out Tesla pain out a WHILE back?….again?
KALEPA like to business
KALEPA like business
It’s obviously a lot to ask, but the argument hinges a lot on what “soon” means; so it needs to be defined for more conclusive argument. Because some meaning of soon is arguably within the time it takes for BEO industry to start paying back.
Bezos’ strategy is to lower the entry barrier to space, so that many more space startups could be formed much more easily. Then the space market(s) will start growing more rapidly. But it will still take while to get really huge.
Good! Then Musk can bail out Tesla instead of Sacramento or Waschington.
AI plus space exploration = asteroid mining
That’s probably where your first trillionaires will be found.
Like 15th century explorers
Poor technology (for the challenge), govt and business sponsorship of adventures to hunt for precious minerals and after that a land grab by the various great powers.
At some point after some sort of East India Company megacorp to mine the asteroids or gas giants. Only decades or millennia after all that do you have a sizable portion of the population living outside of gravity wells.
Its a first major sailing of the local planetary system. Accidents, expensive costs are to be expected just like in previous ages.
Personally, I’m not convinced space colonization will become a trillion dollar business soon.
The rest (space logistics and space industry/mining) I expect them to grow a lot, up to that market size.
Space is hard and dangerous, probably resulting in disappointed early settlers. The exception of that would be for LEO free fall settlements and space hotels, where people could go for short trips, get the thrill of being in space and watching Earth from an incomparable vantage point. The same for space manufacturing and research, where people can help do more things than machines alone could.
But that is a few hundred miles from home, with trips taking a few hours.
The Moon also has some touristic appeal for long-ish trips, mostly to get the ‘overview effect’ of seeing Earth as a blue marble in the sky. But Mars is really too far and too big a commitment for a mere sightseeing trip.
Don’t get me wrong: if SpaceX or anyone else succeeds, it will happen. People will pay to go, but the market for that will remain relatively small compared with the government expense or whatever happens near Earth.
We still are bound to our planet’s gravity, not only in physical terms but also by our longings and needs.