California Battery and EV Car Mandates Will Help Tesla Reach $1 trillion by 2030

Ron Baron of Baron Capital believes Tesla’s electric car and battery storage business will be worth $500 billion each by 2030. This will give Tesla an estimated total market cap of $1 trillion in the next 11 years. Baron’s firm, which has $28.3 billion in assets under management, holds 1.65 million TSLA shares. He gives Tesla a better than 50-50 chance of hitting the $1 trillion level. They will be the biggest car company with 10 million to 15 million cars sold per year eventually.

Bloombergnef has increased its forecast for lithium-ion batteries by six times to 1783.5 gigawatt-hours in 2030 versus previous estimates of about 300 gigawatthours.

California Leading the Way with Gigawatts of Utility Scale Batteries

California established the first energy storage target in the USA in 2010. AB 2514 established a target of 1,325 MW of energy storage by 2020 for the state’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs). The state added a new target in 2016 with bill AB 2868, which calls for 500 MW of behind-the-meter storage. California will likely add another 2000 MW of required storage.

Pacific Gas & Electric has been authorized to replace three natural gas-fired power plants in the state with utility-grade lithium-ion batteries.

There is a 300 MW lithium-ion battery from Dynegy, as well as a 182.5 MW Tesla battery system. Installations from Hummingbird Energy Storage (75 MW) and mNOC (10MW) allow the entire clean energy initiative to reach a total of 567 MW. The battery systems have four-hour ratings. The total energy rating of the entire project is 2.27 GWh.