Currently about 250 of China’s ships are modern. By 2025, China’s Navy should be over 90% modern.
US Navy budgets not increasing
If the Navy’s budget is the average of its budget over the prior 30 years in real dollars and it maintains its aircraft carrier and ballistic submarine construction schedules, in 12 years the active naval fleet will decline to 237 ships. In six years, the U.S. submarine fleet will decline to 48 ships, and in eleven years the number of U.S. attack submarines will decline to 41 ships.
In 2015, the US Navy planned to increase the fleet to 308 ships by 2022. The Trump administration plans a 355-ship navy. However, Trump had to order a 5% budget cut. To reach 308 ships, the Navy will have to spend 36 percent more than the average shipbuilding budget over the past 30 years, requiring a one-third increase in its current budget.
The US will have to pay $300 to $500 billion per year in additional interest in the next 2 to 4 years. This will prevent increases in the military budget.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Hi. Are your news written by algorithm, not a human?
I am not aware of people who have said such things being physically assaulted. I can well imagine that many people would be reluctant to hire people who said such things. It is safer to say such things in the US than to criticize the Communist Party in China, or to criticize Mohammed in Pakistan.
Only if sailors, fuel and munitions come for free.
Which they don’t.
Otherwise the USA has to continue with the policy of fewer, more automated, but overall more effective ships. Because a ship without the crew and supplies is useless.
So if an average US citizen were to publicly state that feminism was a load of BS and that gay marriage was an evil idea, would their future careers be secure and they be safe from physical assault, or not?
He is counting the helicopter carriers carrying F-35B’s
By the way, you are typing to compare apples and orange here. The US Navy is a blue water navy and the Chinese Navy is by in large a littoral navy.
Hey! You be nice to the kilo class subs!
No wait- carry on.
“The US will have to pay $300 to $500 billion per year in additional interest in the next 2 to 4 years. ”
As opposed to all those Chinese SOEs not paying anything on their massive debts that is easily 400% of Chinese GDP?
If by 350 ships you mean the crappy, mass produced poor copies of other nations’ ship designs, then yes. They have a 350 ship navy.
My main criterion for who is the bad guy is ‘Is is safe for a resident of the country to publicly state that the leader is an ass or a thug, or that the leading political or religious ideology of the country is a load of BS.’ If not the country is a bad guy.
Some of the people in every country are brainwashed sheeple that are mostly out of touch with global affairs. I guess you had a point to that, though it eludes me at the moment.
“With an arrogant and an out-of-touch-with-reality attitude such as this, the US should get ready for some serious strategic surprises if push comes to shove.” Apparently you are not familiar with humor as those statements were made in. The number of ships doesn’t matter, it is the capabilities, experience, training and doctrine that matter the most. People posting on this site get that. Brian (the site author) is a booster for “Great China”.
“In war, numbers alone confer no advantage. Do not advance relying on sheer military power.” Sun Tzu
We will never have 20 aircraft carriers, the Ford Class are REPLACING the Nimitz Class.
america is doomed see arguemnts above.
China also have more horses than we have tanks.
What? It’s time for social welfare to stop for the corporations, not the citizens. The USA already spends more on defense than the total of the next five countries including China. The DOD also is the largest source of fossil fuel emissions, making climate change a serious problem for the pentagon. My guess is you must be one of the one percent or the exact opposite with little knowledge or what will happen if social programs are “severely” curtailed.
Just let someone else build the ships and the US can have a 3500 ship navy for the same price.
It is long past time for us to cut Medicare and Medicaid severely. I wonder why conservatives, who were in charge of the House, Senate and Presidency have not accomplished it yet? Without cutting these programs we will continue to fall behind on our budgets and it will limit our military expenditures. Now that the Democrats control the House they may have lost their chance, because Democrats have never seen a Socialist program they didn’t like and want to expand. Politically we are stuck with Social Security so good luck killing that program.
” Time to cut taxes some more to finance an apropriately sized navy again! ” <– Exactly, returning spending authority to the private sector grows the economy far more than offsetting marginal tax cuts…which has been true every time it has been tried,
And it may functionally have 1/3rd the naval power.
The first line of China’s naval defense, the Maritime Militia, consists of 180,000 ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant marine[1] freighters (some towing sonar detectors) crewed by a million professional sailors transmitting detailed information about every warship on the world’s oceans, twenty-four hours a day. Shore bases fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou positioning, navigation and timing satellites and provide real time data to reporting specialists, xinxiyuan, trained in target information collection and identification operating ‘vessel management platforms’ that collate, format and forward actionable information up the command chain. Along the shore, eight million coastal reservists train in seamanship, emergency ship repairs, anti-air missile defense, light weapons and naval sabotage.

[1] China’s Maritime Militia, by ndrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy
We should give/sell Nimitz to Australia and Japan.
I’d be cool with that, but it would require a lot of regulations and oversight. Otherwise that company might have a rogue Pro Chinese employee who adds a line of code into the ships OS, which would let China push a button, and disable our whole fleet.
A lot of Americans are brainwashed sheeple that are mostly out of touch with reality when it comes to global affairs. All I can say is this, the PLA surely hopes that the US military and civilian “leadership” believes that “China’s brown water navy is very impressive.” and “US has 20 carriers soon to be filled with stealth fighters to the brims and China has 20 corvettes that 4 of the F35s can take out in 5min.. 20 not equal 20.” and “China also have more horses than we have tanks.”
With an arrogant and an out-of-touch-with-reality attitude such as this, the US should get ready for some serious strategic surprises if push comes to shove.
A 1 to 3 ratio is useless to China. It puts ROK, Taiwanese, US marines ashore in Fujian and Andong within a week of hostilities commencing, and Beijing is taken within a month.
” Thiers are in the south china sea pretty much exclusively. Everyone always forgets that we are the global invasive force. That makes us the bad guys no matter what moral we claim as americans. ”
No mor0n it doesn’t, because your baseless assertions create no facts. For example, we have invaded no place with the last 80 some years without very good reason to do so, and China has illegally occupied parts of the South China Sea for no more reason than that they want it. China’s the bad guy.
China’s brown water navy is very impressive. No one can challenge it in the China seas. If China could only buy Okinawa from Japan it would have very good blue water access. Being hemmed into brown water and playing bumper ship with the other boats in the fleet becomes tiresome.
1 to three ratio is big. IF a higher percentage of those is hunter killer subs than we would be fucked. Also our ships are spread around the earth. Thiers are in the south china sea pretty much exclusively. Everyone always forgets that we are the global invasive force. That makes us the bad guys no matter what moral we claim as americans.
So, you are ok with over 60% and rising of our tax base every year going to non-productive sections of our society? I am not the 1% or the bottom 60% and have no trouble seeing how that is going to hammer us in an age when state actor competition wants our scalps. If we try to keep all of our social programs, we will likely not only fail and have to cut them anyway, but be in a much worse position when we get around to doing something about them. Do us a favor and take a look up a pie chart of federal spending please.
Quality vs quantity.
But 2 ships can be at 2 places at the same time which one can not no matter how good its quality.
Time to cut taxes some more to finance an apropriately sized navy again!
Hi. Are your news written by algorithm, not a human?
I am not aware of people who have said such things being physically assaulted. I can well imagine that many people would be reluctant to hire people who said such things. It is safer to say such things in the US than to criticize the Communist Party in China, or to criticize Mohammed in Pakistan.
Only if sailors, fuel and munitions come for free.
Which they don’t.
Otherwise the USA has to continue with the policy of fewer, more automated, but overall more effective ships. Because a ship without the crew and supplies is useless.
So if an average US citizen were to publicly state that feminism was a load of BS and that gay marriage was an evil idea, would their future careers be secure and they be safe from physical assault, or not?
He is counting the helicopter carriers carrying F-35B’s
The first line of China’s naval defense, the Maritime Militia, consists of 180,000 ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant marine[1] freighters (some towing sonar detectors) crewed by a million professional sailors transmitting detailed information about every warship on the world’s oceans, twenty-four hours a day. Shore bases fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou positioning, navigation and timing satellites and provide real time data to reporting specialists, xinxiyuan, trained in target information collection and identification operating ‘vessel management platforms’ that collate, format and forward actionable information up the command chain. Along the shore, eight million coastal reservists train in seamanship, emergency ship repairs, anti-air missile defense, light weapons and naval sabotage.

[1] China’s Maritime Militia, by ndrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy
By the way, you are typing to compare apples and orange here. The US Navy is a blue water navy and the Chinese Navy is by in large a littoral navy.
Hey! You be nice to the kilo class subs!
No wait- carry on.
We should give/sell Nimitz to Australia and Japan.
“The US will have to pay $300 to $500 billion per year in additional interest in the next 2 to 4 years. ”
As opposed to all those Chinese SOEs not paying anything on their massive debts that is easily 400% of Chinese GDP?
If by 350 ships you mean the crappy, mass produced poor copies of other nations’ ship designs, then yes. They have a 350 ship navy.
My main criterion for who is the bad guy is ‘Is is safe for a resident of the country to publicly state that the leader is an ass or a thug, or that the leading political or religious ideology of the country is a load of BS.’ If not the country is a bad guy.
Some of the people in every country are brainwashed sheeple that are mostly out of touch with global affairs. I guess you had a point to that, though it eludes me at the moment.
“With an arrogant and an out-of-touch-with-reality attitude such as this, the US should get ready for some serious strategic surprises if push comes to shove.” Apparently you are not familiar with humor as those statements were made in. The number of ships doesn’t matter, it is the capabilities, experience, training and doctrine that matter the most. People posting on this site get that. Brian (the site author) is a booster for “Great China”.
“In war, numbers alone confer no advantage. Do not advance relying on sheer military power.” Sun Tzu
I’d be cool with that, but it would require a lot of regulations and oversight. Otherwise that company might have a rogue Pro Chinese employee who adds a line of code into the ships OS, which would let China push a button, and disable our whole fleet.
We will never have 20 aircraft carriers, the Ford Class are REPLACING the Nimitz Class.
A lot of Americans are brainwashed sheeple that are mostly out of touch with reality when it comes to global affairs. All I can say is this, the PLA surely hopes that the US military and civilian “leadership” believes that “China’s brown water navy is very impressive.” and “US has 20 carriers soon to be filled with stealth fighters to the brims and China has 20 corvettes that 4 of the F35s can take out in 5min.. 20 not equal 20.” and “China also have more horses than we have tanks.”
With an arrogant and an out-of-touch-with-reality attitude such as this, the US should get ready for some serious strategic surprises if push comes to shove.
A 1 to 3 ratio is useless to China. It puts ROK, Taiwanese, US marines ashore in Fujian and Andong within a week of hostilities commencing, and Beijing is taken within a month.
” Thiers are in the south china sea pretty much exclusively. Everyone always forgets that we are the global invasive force. That makes us the bad guys no matter what moral we claim as americans. ”
No mor0n it doesn’t, because your baseless assertions create no facts. For example, we have invaded no place with the last 80 some years without very good reason to do so, and China has illegally occupied parts of the South China Sea for no more reason than that they want it. China’s the bad guy.
China’s brown water navy is very impressive. No one can challenge it in the China seas. If China could only buy Okinawa from Japan it would have very good blue water access. Being hemmed into brown water and playing bumper ship with the other boats in the fleet becomes tiresome.
1 to three ratio is big. IF a higher percentage of those is hunter killer subs than we would be fucked. Also our ships are spread around the earth. Thiers are in the south china sea pretty much exclusively. Everyone always forgets that we are the global invasive force. That makes us the bad guys no matter what moral we claim as americans.
So, you are ok with over 60% and rising of our tax base every year going to non-productive sections of our society? I am not the 1% or the bottom 60% and have no trouble seeing how that is going to hammer us in an age when state actor competition wants our scalps. If we try to keep all of our social programs, we will likely not only fail and have to cut them anyway, but be in a much worse position when we get around to doing something about them. Do us a favor and take a look up a pie chart of federal spending please.
america is doomed see arguemnts above.
China also have more horses than we have tanks.
What? It’s time for social welfare to stop for the corporations, not the citizens. The USA already spends more on defense than the total of the next five countries including China. The DOD also is the largest source of fossil fuel emissions, making climate change a serious problem for the pentagon. My guess is you must be one of the one percent or the exact opposite with little knowledge or what will happen if social programs are “severely” curtailed.
Just let someone else build the ships and the US can have a 3500 ship navy for the same price.
It is long past time for us to cut Medicare and Medicaid severely. I wonder why conservatives, who were in charge of the House, Senate and Presidency have not accomplished it yet? Without cutting these programs we will continue to fall behind on our budgets and it will limit our military expenditures. Now that the Democrats control the House they may have lost their chance, because Democrats have never seen a Socialist program they didn’t like and want to expand. Politically we are stuck with Social Security so good luck killing that program.
” Time to cut taxes some more to finance an apropriately sized navy again! ” <-- Exactly, returning spending authority to the private sector grows the economy far more than offsetting marginal tax cuts...which has been true every time it has been tried,
Quality vs quantity.
But 2 ships can be at 2 places at the same time which one can not no matter how good its quality.
Time to cut taxes some more to finance an apropriately sized navy again!
And it may functionally have 1/3rd the naval power.