Elon Musk and the Boring Company has completed most of phase 1 of a 2.7-mile proof-of-process tunnel through Los Angeles.
The first section of the Hawthorne tunnel, including O’Leary Station, will be revealed by December 10, 2018.
Tunnels projects currently cost as much as $1 billion per mile. Elon Musk wants to make a massive tunnel network. He wants to reduce tunneling costs by a factor of more than 10.
Boring Company has started work on an 18-mile tunnel in Chicago from downtown to the airport. Successfully completing the airport tunnel will make the tunneling company worth as much as $16 billion. This valuation will be before any full speed hyperloop implementation. If Boring Company succeeds in lowering the cost of tunneling by ten to one hundred times then they will enable high-speed transportation to be used inside and between cities. This would not only mean capturing most of the existing tunnel and infrastructure projects but increasing the tunneling projects by 100 times.
Existing highway and rail projects could shift to mostly tunnel projects. If tunnel projects were over ten times cheaper and faster, then global demand for ten thousand miles of tunnel every year is possible. The electric skates are based upon Tesla Model X technology. There would also be demand for thousands of electric skates.
Tesla is currently worth about $60 billion and if it sells 2 million cars per year it could be worth $200 to 400 billion. SpaceX is dominating space launch and could expand with global internet satellite services and total reusable launches. SpaceX could go from about $30 billion in value today to $200 to $1 trillion in value.
Boring Company that enables vastly improved public transportation could be worth multiple trillions.
The current standard for a one-lane tunnel is approximately 28 feet wide. Vehicles on a stabilized electric skate can use tunnels that are less than 14 feet wide. Tunnels with half the diameter reduce tunneling costs by 3-4 times.
Elon is trying increase the speed and power of the Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM).
TBMs are super slow. A snail is effectively 14 times faster than a soft-soil TBM. Elon wants to tunnel over 14 times faster.
The machine’s power output can be tripled. They will upgrade the cooling systems.
Current soft-soil machines tunnel for 50% of the time and erect tunnel support structures the other 50%. Elon will modify the technology for continuous tunneling activity.
Automate the TBM. While smaller diameter tunneling machines are automated, larger ones currently require multiple human operators. By automating the larger TBMs, both safety and efficiency are increased.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2018
Current projects and proposed projects
The Boring Company has been selected by the Chicago Infrastructure Trust (CIT), on behalf of the City of Chicago, to enter into exclusive negotiations to design, build, finance, operate and maintain an O’Hare Express service. The Chicago Express Loop will provide fast and convenient transportation between O’Hare Airport (Terminals 1-3) and Block 37 in downtown Chicago.
The Boring Company is proposing a project on the East Coast to build Loop, a high-speed underground public transportation system. The DC-Maryland Loop would consist of the construction of a set of parallel, twin underground tunnels. The twin tunnels would run in parallel for approximately 35 miles from downtown DC to downtown Baltimore, beneath New York Avenue and then the Baltimore-Washington Parkway.
Loop is transportation at 125 to 150 mph
Loop is a high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric skates traveling at 125-150 miles per hour. Electric skates will carry between 8 and 16 passengers (mass transit), or a single passenger vehicle.
Loop is used for shorter routes when there is no technical need to eliminate air friction. Hyperloop draws a vacuum inside the tube to eliminate air friction.
Hyperloop is 600+ mph
Hyperloop is an ultra high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric pods traveling at 600+ miles per hour in a pressurized cabin. Similar to Loop, Hyperloop pods will transport between 8 and 16 passengers (mass transit), or a single passenger vehicle.
Electric Skates
An electric skate is a platform on wheels with multiple electric motors. The electric skate allows narrow tunnels to be used.
They will safer and will be fully stabilized autonomous vehicles.
The self-driving skate will move traffic and goods at 125 – 150 miles per hour in cities.
They will move people (mass transit), goods and cars.
Electric skates are zero-emission vehicles.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Cincinnati died after WW2 with white flight to the suburbs. But cities are starting to come back so you never know.
I agree with you. I once thought about high speed personal door to door transportation. Nice concept couldn’t move enough people. Musk will have to figure out how to build larger tunnels for moving people. Maybe by ganging up the tunneling machines. The smaller tunnels would be greater for sewer, water, gas, steam, packages, electric transmission and distribution, and fiber optics lines.
Make bricks.
Tunneling is so ridiculously expensive than even at 10% reduction in price would made the Boring company a big success. If they manage a 50% improvement I would load up on their stock when they IPO. There is an expanding market for tunneling as more of the worlds population move into urban centers.
Musk has worked with banks, green power companies and defense contracts.He knows all about businesses where you have to “pay to play”. It’s just a cost of doing business.
Package it up and sell it as “All natural food additive” to hippies and hipsters. The way they normally do.
Sure – isn’t that why there are already multiple hyperloop companies out there?
I agree with your thinking – if there could be a convenient way to seamlessly transition from road travel to this special tunnel travel, it would make all the difference. Otherwise, that whole Last Mile problem is where you get the bottleneck.
Permit to dig is not a permit to operate anything in said dug tunnel. Not these days.Otherwise, yes. That would be ideal. No tax dollars paid for this at all. Again, most likely in smaller cities and even towns.
Musk is going to let them skim off 50% of ANYTHING? I don’t think so.
Technically, they could build an underground PRT system. And studies have been done on ridership/scalability on those.
What wil they do with the dirt? NIMBY!
Cincinnati died after WW2 with white flight to the suburbs. But cities are starting to come back so you never know.
I agree with you. I once thought about high speed personal door to door transportation. Nice concept couldn’t move enough people. Musk will have to figure out how to build larger tunnels for moving people. Maybe by ganging up the tunneling machines. The smaller tunnels would be greater for sewer, water, gas, steam, packages, electric transmission and distribution, and fiber optics lines.
Make bricks.
Tunneling is so ridiculously expensive than even at 10% reduction in price would made the Boring company a big success. If they manage a 50% improvement I would load up on their stock when they IPO. There is an expanding market for tunneling as more of the worlds population move into urban centers.
Like his other projects, he starts with a minimum viable product, then makes improvements. The Falcon 1 used a rocket engine designed by someone else. The Tesla Roadster was mostly built by other companies. I’m sure once they get experience with this first tunnel, they will see what needs improving and work on it.
Musk has worked with banks, green power companies and defense contracts.
He knows all about businesses where you have to “pay to play”. It’s just a cost of doing business.
Package it up and sell it as “All natural food additive” to hippies and hipsters. The way they normally do.
Sure – isn’t that why there are already multiple hyperloop companies out there?
I agree with your thinking – if there could be a convenient way to seamlessly transition from road travel to this special tunnel travel, it would make all the difference. Otherwise, that whole Last Mile problem is where you get the bottleneck.
It’s frequently the case that big advances could have been done earlier if somebody had thought to do them. If Musk’s small tunnels with sleds work out, the huge tunnels could end up being seen as tunneling having gone down the wrong path.The key, I think, is how easily you can get onto and off of the sled. If it could be made basically transparent, without having to stop your car, I could see the smaller tunnels really taking off for long distances. Otherwise I see it being limited to applications where people remotely park and are all funneled into come central location, like airports.
Permit to dig is not a permit to operate anything in said dug tunnel. Not these days.
Otherwise, yes. That would be ideal. No tax dollars paid for this at all. Again, most likely in smaller cities and even towns.
Musk is going to let them skim off 50% of ANYTHING? I don’t think so.
Technically, they could build an underground PRT system. And studies have been done on ridership/scalability on those.
8-16 people is like a minibus. Have a look at ET3. They’re advocating even smaller pods (and much higher intercity/interstate speeds). The size of each pod really doesn’t matter much except for technical considerations. What matters is how many people per hour can the whole system handle in total. In that sense, both hyperloop and ET3 qualify as mass transit. For hyperloop:~10 people in a ~10 m long pod (guestimate), so ~1 person per meter.~200 km/h (low estimate)=> In one hour a pod covers 200 km, so at zero spacing (not going to happen), one can fit 200K people per hour.Multiply that by a spacing factor. For ~90 m spacing (100 m for spacing plus pod), the factor is 10/100 = 0.1, so 20K people per hour per lane.A highway lane capacity is ~2K vehicles/hour, which at usual occupancy is ~2-5K people/hour. Google says a train is ~4-10K people/hour. That depends on the size and speed of the train.Point is, it’s a similar scale – depending on the spacing factor etc.For ET3 the capacity is higher, since it’s intended to be used similar to a highway, but at much higher speeds (under automated control, as is hyperloop).Whether it’ll be used anywhere near capacity is a separate question, which depends on costs, comfort, location, and a multitude of other factors. But by the same token, there can easily be an underutilized train line or highway.
Transporting 8-16 people is not mass transit. NYC subways transport 5.6 million people every weekday. It would be impossible to get to even a fraction of that with Boring’s too-small tunnels transporting too-large vehicles with too-few passengers per vehicle. Even the hyperloop is insufficient if it only transports 8-16 people, even accounting for the greater “throughput” of people due to faster trains. The volume just isn’t there. And of course, if Musk’s tunnels go all over the place, there is less room for conventional subway tubes, not to mention utilities and basements.Someone should do a thorough volume analysis instead of being wowed by promises of free tunnels and fast but tiny trains. Has anyone figured out what the cost of a ticket on these exclusive rides will be?
What wil they do with the dirt? NIMBY!
Like his other projects, he starts with a minimum viable product, then makes improvements. The Falcon 1 used a rocket engine designed by someone else. The Tesla Roadster was mostly built by other companies. I’m sure once they get experience with this first tunnel, they will see what needs improving and work on it.
Reducing tunnel bore diameter is not in and of itself a technological advance, though it effectively is a cost advance indirectly. But that’s not something specific to Musk though. all things considered. Any number of APM makers partnering with a tunneling contractor could have done the reduced bore/sled combo a while ago (though likely with track power rather than a battery within the APM based sled).
It’s frequently the case that big advances could have been done earlier if somebody had thought to do them. If Musk’s small tunnels with sleds work out, the huge tunnels could end up being seen as tunneling having gone down the wrong path.
The key, I think, is how easily you can get onto and off of the sled. If it could be made basically transparent, without having to stop your car, I could see the smaller tunnels really taking off for long distances. Otherwise I see it being limited to applications where people remotely park and are all funneled into come central location, like airports.
8-16 people is like a minibus. Have a look at ET3. They’re advocating even smaller pods (and much higher intercity/interstate speeds). The size of each pod really doesn’t matter much except for technical considerations. What matters is how many people per hour can the whole system handle in total. In that sense, both hyperloop and ET3 qualify as mass transit. For hyperloop:
~10 people in a ~10 m long pod (guestimate), so ~1 person per meter.
~200 km/h (low estimate)
=> In one hour a pod covers 200 km, so at zero spacing (not going to happen), one can fit 200K people per hour.
Multiply that by a spacing factor. For ~90 m spacing (100 m for spacing plus pod), the factor is 10/100 = 0.1, so 20K people per hour per lane.
A highway lane capacity is ~2K vehicles/hour, which at usual occupancy is ~2-5K people/hour. Google says a train is ~4-10K people/hour. That depends on the size and speed of the train.
Point is, it’s a similar scale – depending on the spacing factor etc.
For ET3 the capacity is higher, since it’s intended to be used similar to a highway, but at much higher speeds (under automated control, as is hyperloop).
Whether it’ll be used anywhere near capacity is a separate question, which depends on costs, comfort, location, and a multitude of other factors. But by the same token, there can easily be an underutilized train line or highway.
Jevon’s Paradox Ape.Lower the cost by 90%, you don’t cut expenditure by 90%. In fact expenditure will probably go UP because you get 20 to 50 times as many tunnels being dug, because now tunnels can outbid other infrastructure solutions.So, Mr Corrupt Politician: Do you want to skim 50% off the top of $20 billion doing things the old way? Or would you prefer to skim 50% off the top of $100 billion doing things the new way?
How is eliminating the wasted 75% of effort “cheating”?
The key is not to bid on public infrastructure projects, but to just say “hey, I wanna dig a tunnel, can I get a permit” like he did with his first one. Then make the money back on fees, instead of up front from tax dollars.Basically, the same model that SpaceX used, compared to all the other rocket companies demanding tax money up front to develop new rockets.
Transporting 8-16 people is not mass transit. NYC subways transport 5.6 million people every weekday. It would be impossible to get to even a fraction of that with Boring’s too-small tunnels transporting too-large vehicles with too-few passengers per vehicle. Even the hyperloop is insufficient if it only transports 8-16 people, even accounting for the greater “throughput” of people due to faster trains. The volume just isn’t there. And of course, if Musk’s tunnels go all over the place, there is less room for conventional subway tubes, not to mention utilities and basements.
Someone should do a thorough volume analysis instead of being wowed by promises of free tunnels and fast but tiny trains. Has anyone figured out what the cost of a ticket on these exclusive rides will be?
Go finish the Cincinnati subway – cancelled in 1928.
Has he actually demonstrated true improvements to TBM activities? I thought he was mostly cheating by building smaller tunnels and using sleds to lower minimum clearances to allow the smaller tunnels, compared to true automotive tunnels? The demo tunnel used a used TBM he got cheap, which appeared to be fairly conventional. It’s not like he’s using plasma cutters, and he’s not using a heat lance torus like some of the more extreme nuclear subterrenes…
Oh, I am sure that TBC would find a helluva market in smaller cities that have less corruption and a desire to get tunnels, etc. like the ‘big cities’ do. Or for intercity tunnels for transportation (hyperloop or otherwise). But Chicago and Boston and NY and SF? Welcome to Cost Plus Contracting Graftville, baby!
…that also.
That is a good point Warren; it is sad that the biggest cost factor in large-scale infrastructure projects these days is the level of corruption a local has going on. Still, there is an extremely good reason why Ol’Musky is pushing for better tunnel making methods; Mars. Being able to dig underground habitats would be extremely useful there.
The thing is that re-engineering the boring machines the way he did and mass underground transportation he is working on are much easier to replicate than the BFR and the Tesla cars.
Reducing tunnel bore diameter is not in and of itself a technological advance, though it effectively is a cost advance indirectly. But that’s not something specific to Musk though. all things considered. Any number of APM makers partnering with a tunneling contractor could have done the reduced bore/sled combo a while ago (though likely with track power rather than a battery within the APM based sled).
“This would not only mean capturing most of the existing tunnel and infrastructure projects”Hahahahahahaha!Brian sure does live in a fantasy world sometimes, despite how he ‘exits’ it periodically to write about such things as the F-35. But then, as that line above proves, he seems to re-enter that fantasy world w/o remembering anything about the real one.Brian, The Big Dig in Boston was not about building an underground tunnel. It was about sleazy politicians spreading the graft around as much as possible. Those guys are not interested in lower costs for tunnel projects anymore than Congress is interested in killing the SLS for SpaceX instead.Get a grip, man!
Jevon’s Paradox Ape.
Lower the cost by 90%, you don’t cut expenditure by 90%. In fact expenditure will probably go UP because you get 20 to 50 times as many tunnels being dug, because now tunnels can outbid other infrastructure solutions.
So, Mr Corrupt Politician: Do you want to skim 50% off the top of $20 billion doing things the old way? Or would you prefer to skim 50% off the top of $100 billion doing things the new way?
How is eliminating the wasted 75% of effort “cheating”?
The key is not to bid on public infrastructure projects, but to just say “hey, I wanna dig a tunnel, can I get a permit” like he did with his first one. Then make the money back on fees, instead of up front from tax dollars.
Basically, the same model that SpaceX used, compared to all the other rocket companies demanding tax money up front to develop new rockets.
Go finish the Cincinnati subway – cancelled in 1928.
Has he actually demonstrated true improvements to TBM activities? I thought he was mostly cheating by building smaller tunnels and using sleds to lower minimum clearances to allow the smaller tunnels, compared to true automotive tunnels? The demo tunnel used a used TBM he got cheap, which appeared to be fairly conventional. It’s not like he’s using plasma cutters, and he’s not using a heat lance torus like some of the more extreme nuclear subterrenes…
Oh, I am sure that TBC would find a helluva market in smaller cities that have less corruption and a desire to get tunnels, etc. like the ‘big cities’ do. Or for intercity tunnels for transportation (hyperloop or otherwise).
But Chicago and Boston and NY and SF? Welcome to Cost Plus Contracting Graftville, baby!
…that also.
That is a good point Warren; it is sad that the biggest cost factor in large-scale infrastructure projects these days is the level of corruption a local has going on. Still, there is an extremely good reason why Ol’Musky is pushing for better tunnel making methods; Mars. Being able to dig underground habitats would be extremely useful there.
The thing is that re-engineering the boring machines the way he did and mass underground transportation he is working on are much easier to replicate than the BFR and the Tesla cars.
“This would not only mean capturing most of the existing tunnel and infrastructure projects”
Hahahahahahaha!
Brian sure does live in a fantasy world sometimes, despite how he ‘exits’ it periodically to write about such things as the F-35. But then, as that line above proves, he seems to re-enter that fantasy world w/o remembering anything about the real one.
Brian, The Big Dig in Boston was not about building an underground tunnel. It was about sleazy politicians spreading the graft around as much as possible. Those guys are not interested in lower costs for tunnel projects anymore than Congress is interested in killing the SLS for SpaceX instead.
Get a grip, man!