National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow talked about maintaining GDP growth at 3% for the USA for ten years.
The USA had 3%-4% GDP growth most of the time from 1975 to 2007.
It was only from 2008 to 2016 where the growth rate was around 1 to 2%. However, US population growth has been slowing. Population growth is 0.5% per year.
Growing at 3% GDP growth instead of 2% per year would mean $3.5 trillion more tax revenue over 10 years. The US economy would be larger 10% larger at the end of ten years.
Kudlow believes lower tax rates, less regulation, and a booming energy market will keep the economy strong.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Candidate Trump promised sustained real GDP growth of 3.5% to 5%, not just 3%.
I’m guessing we won’t hit even 3% real GDP growth in even one year under President Trump, let alone sustain it.
“Guess what?”
Okay, I’m guessing when it starts getting really tough thatthe great Pooh-Bear-for-life may have to cut your payments per post from fifty cents down to a quarter or less, probably much less.
“Representation failure means your vote is a bipartisan political joke.”
That has nothing to do with GDP.
“GDP” doesn’t DO anything positive for 99% of the people.”
Really? Tell that to all the people who suddenly have jobs in Red State Land.
This will happen soon after Mexico builds the wall at their expenses and Iran agrees to a new deal with the US -> Keep dreaimng
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
When I want you in my arms
When I want you and all your charms
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
When I feel blue in the night
And I need you to hold me tight
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam
I can make you mine, taste your lips of wine
Anytime night or day
Only trouble is, gee whiz
I’m dreamin’ my life away
I need you so that I could die
I love you so and that is why
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam
I can make you mine, taste your lips of wine
Anytime night or day
Only trouble is, gee whiz
I’m dreamin’ my life away
I need you so that I could die
I love you so and that is why
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Then the few “immortals” will continue live in fear and be sorrounded by meaningless or so robots.
Not an happy life!
“when basic common sense shows that a significant number of illegals weren’t included in the census”
You do know that they are aware of that, and use several techniques to adjust for that, right? Door-to-door surveys, checking school enrollment numbers, registered births etc. (I’m sure you agree they want to make sure their babies are “anchored” here).
If there’s really 20+ million illegal immigrants here, they apparently aren’t using social services, having sex or getting arrested.
First off, a lot of people think that ending a trade war is lot harder than starting one. Second the stimulus effect of the tax cut/deficit increase legislation soon will switch over to personal tax increase and deficit effects only.
That or great advances with life extension technology. Note, there would have to also be really strict laws and regulations regarding age discrimination. However, you’d still have some people that saved enough money and don’t want to apply the old nose to the grindstone anymore.
But Bush voted for Hillary – and was partlly rehabilitated by the Left for his trouble, even while losing favor among the Right.
You have some valid points, and some I disagree with.
My company is one of those stocking up now on products to help mitigate tariffs (hopefully they will be temporary). That’s sure to artificially push up some numbers.
But your immigration numbers I don’t agree with. For starters the current census does not include a line regarding immigration status, that’s something Trump wants to add. First, the study increases the number of illegals from 11 million to 16 to 22 million, maybe more. That’s a controversial claim right there, not supported by hospital data, school data, estimates by Homeland Security, Pew Research, etc. So to jump right past that to 30 million? That’s conspiracy theory tin-foil hat territory.
The official population growth number is 0.7% – 0.9%. Don’t know where the 0.5% Brian quoted comes from.
Only if you include the disastrous 2008-2009 recession as part of Obama’s time. Really that happened under G.W.Bush’s term, and Obama had >2% growth GDP. If you look at 2001-2009 (Bush’s term), the average GDP was a whopping 1.6%
Nope. China will collapse before that or in the same event.
Absolutely, Kudlow is an ideologue masquerading as an economist.
Obama was “da bomb” for the US economy. That was intentional on his part. Hillary was aiming to extend the fail rate. Down with the mega-regulatory state!
We are at 3.5% right now because of the trade war
There is only 10% on 200 billion worth of goods, by the end of the year this 10% goes to 25% and trump wants 10% on the other 250 billion
Manufacturers and retailers are stocking up as much as possible, Several manufacturers are rushing through orders and stock piling up on inventory. They are planning layoffs when the tariffs kick in since they won’t need that many workers since they ate up all their orders and hope that their inventory will last till the end of the trade war.
And this is on top of massive unsustainable tax cuts combined with few cuts in federal spending. This means eventually the tax cuts will be repealed or there will need to be cuts in Federal spending all of it will wipe out gdp growth.
Also the .5% population growth is bunk, we are growing much faster than that
A new Yale study predicts 22 million illegals in the US possibly 30 million, more than double the 10 million illegals claim which was based on census data with obvious flaws like, why would illegals fill out the census admitting they were illegals?
You should again take a look at Kudlows track record; google
“Larry Kudlow’s history of bad economic calls – MarketWatch”
“6 of Larry Kudlow’s Not-So-on-the-Money Predictions”
“New Trump Economist Kudlow Has Been Wrong About Everything”
The guy is basically a reverse Oracle of Omaha. Just betting against everything he says will bring you profits cause he seems to mistime booms/recessions in absolute reverse
So basically expect -1% GDP average for next 10 years, not +1%. :S
MAGA! MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!
As many have predicted since 1978 and still yet to materialize
Guess what
f we have a recession China will buckle. We are to linked together.
-> Not today. Now China is bigger and stronger than the US. The US will fail and China will grow
6% per year
Maye 8%
Yeah
I see hordes of 90 year olds lifting weights in a factory, yeah
When americans are losing they are trying to change the rues of them game
wow
Um, great advances with life extension technology will produce a bunch of retirees. Not quite the GDP producing effect we are looking for.
“GDP” became meaningless long before 90% of wealth growth accrued to concentrated wealth, i.e. the worst forms of corruption now control politics(both parties). Half the population has more debt than wealth and double taxation(by Government and robber baron monopolies) without representation.
Representation failure means your vote is a bipartisan political joke.
“GDP” doesn’t DO anything positive for 99% of the people. Fake economic obsolete measure = “GDP”.
When cells refuse to die it is called cancer. Individuals aren’t more important that humanity. People need to die so that society can change and advance.
The scenario people refuse to see is a few immortals with control of most of the wealth with crystallized ideas controlling mankind. No new and potentiality dangerous thoughts are allowed. No change is allowed since the masters will be uncomfortable with it. So we will just wait for the comet to hit or for the sun to become a super giant.
I’m sure we have even less data on people that go back home than we do on illegal entries. Seems like there’s some significant assumptions with the Yale professors’ approach. It is good that they question the status quo, but from what I’ve done a little research on, there are multiple organizations (including Homeland Security) that have come up with numbers that agree on 10-11 million or so. I haven’t dug into how they came up with their numbers, maybe they do base it off of census data.
Bottom line, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. When most people are agreeing on something around 11 million and then one study comes in and says it’s twice that, they better have good data to show why everybody else is so far off. I’m sure many groups (more informed than you and me) have been digging in and analyzing the data and seeing how valid it is. The Center for Immigration Studies and the Migration Policy Institute have already put out criticisms of this study.
Genius is a relative term. 😉 Of course now that Trump lowered the bar all previous presidents look better.
What policies of Obama’s started taking effect again? I don’t quite remember what those distinctive growth-inducing policies were. I remember that the interest rates were already low since the time of George W Bush, so low rates weren’t exactly an Obama policy. What else was there?
No its not conspiracy theorist stuff, the Census does indeed count illegal immigrants
———————————
Steven Camarota serves as the Director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies
>Camarota estimated the total number of illegal immigrants counted in the 2010 Census at about 10 million
But a new study from Yale estimates 22 million
——————————–
Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates
>Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”
>The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management.
>The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”
>While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.
———————
So the Yale study did not support the study done by Camarota, Camarota calculated the number of illegals from the census
when basic common sense shows that a significant number of illegals weren’t included in the census
I personally think you are responsible. Those are the years you started your blaming comments.
Very likely. It may be as many have predicted, with China finally leading the way, at least in that direction.
Funny how you can pick certain numbers to tell the story you want.
Picking the average GDP from 1975 to 2007 conveniently eliminates both the 2008-2009 recession, and the oil embargo of 1974. If we include those years, the average GDP drops from 3.2% to 2.8%.
Obama was elected in 2008, took office in 2009, his policies started taking effect maybe late 2009. So if you look at average GDP 2010-2017, it is 2.25%. Certainly not outstanding, but not bad, especially considering the financial mood in 2008, people in finance were in a panic.
Comparing 2.8% to 2.25% isn’t nearly as exciting as comparing “1-2%” vs “3-4%”.
The only significant time we averaged 4% growth was 1992-2000 (mostly Clinton years). Reagan had a good run too, 1981-1989 averaged 3.5%
Maybe we could grow the economy by increasing the number of workers by 3% per year. Of course the only way to do so would be to increase the number of immigrants.
But Bush was a genius. Funny how everyone forgets Trump_1.0
If we have a recession China will buckle. We are to linked together.
People need to understand this is a FEATURE of what Globalism does. At the end all the world is under the power of a class of people no one elected, who all owe their political power to multinational corporations and the wealthy political class.
No more borders,
No more national sovereignty,
No more representation.
Because remember kids, if you think being 1 in 300 million is bad with a out of touch government hundreds of miles away wait until you get the new one.
The US can not sustain a 3%+ GDP growth.
It is growing 3.5% now thanks to huge infusion of debt
Kudlow is a well known right wing non-economist who has been predicting that there wouldhave
been no recession in 2008.
He is derided by the whole econoists community
Someone must be dumbh as snort to consider him of any value
In 1-2 years there will be another huge recession in the US and China will pass
“Guess what?”
Okay, I’m guessing when it starts getting really tough thatthe great Pooh-Bear-for-life may have to cut your payments per post from fifty cents down to a quarter or less, probably much less.
“Representation failure means your vote is a bipartisan political joke.”
That has nothing to do with GDP.
“GDP” doesn’t DO anything positive for 99% of the people.”
Really? Tell that to all the people who suddenly have jobs in Red State Land.
MAGA! MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!
This will happen soon after Mexico builds the wall at their expenses and Iran agrees to a new deal with the US -> Keep dreaimng
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
When I want you in my arms
When I want you and all your charms
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
When I feel blue in the night
And I need you to hold me tight
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam
I can make you mine, taste your lips of wine
Anytime night or day
Only trouble is, gee whiz
I’m dreamin’ my life away
I need you so that I could die
I love you so and that is why
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam
I can make you mine, taste your lips of wine
Anytime night or day
Only trouble is, gee whiz
I’m dreamin’ my life away
I need you so that I could die
I love you so and that is why
Whenever I want you, all I have to do is
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
Drea-ea-ea-ea-eam, dream, dream, dream
As many have predicted since 1978 and still yet to materialize
Guess what
f we have a recession China will buckle. We are to linked together.
-> Not today. Now China is bigger and stronger than the US. The US will fail and China will grow
6% per year
Maye 8%
Then the few “immortals” will continue live in fear and be sorrounded by meaningless or so robots.
Not an happy life!
Yeah
I see hordes of 90 year olds lifting weights in a factory, yeah
When americans are losing they are trying to change the rues of them game
wow
Um, great advances with life extension technology will produce a bunch of retirees. Not quite the GDP producing effect we are looking for.
“GDP” became meaningless long before 90% of wealth growth accrued to concentrated wealth, i.e. the worst forms of corruption now control politics(both parties). Half the population has more debt than wealth and double taxation(by Government and robber baron monopolies) without representation.
Representation failure means your vote is a bipartisan political joke.
“GDP” doesn’t DO anything positive for 99% of the people. Fake economic obsolete measure = “GDP”.
When cells refuse to die it is called cancer. Individuals aren’t more important that humanity. People need to die so that society can change and advance.
The scenario people refuse to see is a few immortals with control of most of the wealth with crystallized ideas controlling mankind. No new and potentiality dangerous thoughts are allowed. No change is allowed since the masters will be uncomfortable with it. So we will just wait for the comet to hit or for the sun to become a super giant.
“when basic common sense shows that a significant number of illegals weren’t included in the census”
You do know that they are aware of that, and use several techniques to adjust for that, right? Door-to-door surveys, checking school enrollment numbers, registered births etc. (I’m sure you agree they want to make sure their babies are “anchored” here).
If there’s really 20+ million illegal immigrants here, they apparently aren’t using social services, having sex or getting arrested.
I’m sure we have even less data on people that go back home than we do on illegal entries. Seems like there’s some significant assumptions with the Yale professors’ approach. It is good that they question the status quo, but from what I’ve done a little research on, there are multiple organizations (including Homeland Security) that have come up with numbers that agree on 10-11 million or so. I haven’t dug into how they came up with their numbers, maybe they do base it off of census data.
Bottom line, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. When most people are agreeing on something around 11 million and then one study comes in and says it’s twice that, they better have good data to show why everybody else is so far off. I’m sure many groups (more informed than you and me) have been digging in and analyzing the data and seeing how valid it is. The Center for Immigration Studies and the Migration Policy Institute have already put out criticisms of this study.
First off, a lot of people think that ending a trade war is lot harder than starting one. Second the stimulus effect of the tax cut/deficit increase legislation soon will switch over to personal tax increase and deficit effects only.
Genius is a relative term. 😉 Of course now that Trump lowered the bar all previous presidents look better.
That or great advances with life extension technology. Note, there would have to also be really strict laws and regulations regarding age discrimination. However, you’d still have some people that saved enough money and don’t want to apply the old nose to the grindstone anymore.
But Bush voted for Hillary – and was partlly rehabilitated by the Left for his trouble, even while losing favor among the Right.
What policies of Obama’s started taking effect again? I don’t quite remember what those distinctive growth-inducing policies were. I remember that the interest rates were already low since the time of George W Bush, so low rates weren’t exactly an Obama policy. What else was there?
No its not conspiracy theorist stuff, the Census does indeed count illegal immigrants
———————————
Steven Camarota serves as the Director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies
>Camarota estimated the total number of illegal immigrants counted in the 2010 Census at about 10 million
But a new study from Yale estimates 22 million
——————————–
Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates
>Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”
>The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management.
>The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”
>While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.
———————
So the Yale study did not support the study done by Camarota, Camarota calculated the number of illegals from the census
when basic common sense shows that a significant number of illegals weren’t included in the census
I personally think you are responsible. Those are the years you started your blaming comments.
Very likely. It may be as many have predicted, with China finally leading the way, at least in that direction.
You have some valid points, and some I disagree with.
My company is one of those stocking up now on products to help mitigate tariffs (hopefully they will be temporary). That’s sure to artificially push up some numbers.
But your immigration numbers I don’t agree with. For starters the current census does not include a line regarding immigration status, that’s something Trump wants to add. First, the study increases the number of illegals from 11 million to 16 to 22 million, maybe more. That’s a controversial claim right there, not supported by hospital data, school data, estimates by Homeland Security, Pew Research, etc. So to jump right past that to 30 million? That’s conspiracy theory tin-foil hat territory.
The official population growth number is 0.7% – 0.9%. Don’t know where the 0.5% Brian quoted comes from.
Funny how you can pick certain numbers to tell the story you want.
Picking the average GDP from 1975 to 2007 conveniently eliminates both the 2008-2009 recession, and the oil embargo of 1974. If we include those years, the average GDP drops from 3.2% to 2.8%.
Obama was elected in 2008, took office in 2009, his policies started taking effect maybe late 2009. So if you look at average GDP 2010-2017, it is 2.25%. Certainly not outstanding, but not bad, especially considering the financial mood in 2008, people in finance were in a panic.
Comparing 2.8% to 2.25% isn’t nearly as exciting as comparing “1-2%” vs “3-4%”.
The only significant time we averaged 4% growth was 1992-2000 (mostly Clinton years). Reagan had a good run too, 1981-1989 averaged 3.5%
Maybe we could grow the economy by increasing the number of workers by 3% per year. Of course the only way to do so would be to increase the number of immigrants.
Only if you include the disastrous 2008-2009 recession as part of Obama’s time. Really that happened under G.W.Bush’s term, and Obama had >2% growth GDP. If you look at 2001-2009 (Bush’s term), the average GDP was a whopping 1.6%
But Bush was a genius. Funny how everyone forgets Trump_1.0
If we have a recession China will buckle. We are to linked together.
People need to understand this is a FEATURE of what Globalism does. At the end all the world is under the power of a class of people no one elected, who all owe their political power to multinational corporations and the wealthy political class.
No more borders,
No more national sovereignty,
No more representation.
Because remember kids, if you think being 1 in 300 million is bad with a out of touch government hundreds of miles away wait until you get the new one.
Nope. China will collapse before that or in the same event.
Absolutely, Kudlow is an ideologue masquerading as an economist.
Obama was “da bomb” for the US economy. That was intentional on his part. Hillary was aiming to extend the fail rate. Down with the mega-regulatory state!
We are at 3.5% right now because of the trade war
There is only 10% on 200 billion worth of goods, by the end of the year this 10% goes to 25% and trump wants 10% on the other 250 billion
Manufacturers and retailers are stocking up as much as possible, Several manufacturers are rushing through orders and stock piling up on inventory. They are planning layoffs when the tariffs kick in since they won’t need that many workers since they ate up all their orders and hope that their inventory will last till the end of the trade war.
And this is on top of massive unsustainable tax cuts combined with few cuts in federal spending. This means eventually the tax cuts will be repealed or there will need to be cuts in Federal spending all of it will wipe out gdp growth.
Also the .5% population growth is bunk, we are growing much faster than that
A new Yale study predicts 22 million illegals in the US possibly 30 million, more than double the 10 million illegals claim which was based on census data with obvious flaws like, why would illegals fill out the census admitting they were illegals?
You should again take a look at Kudlows track record; google
“Larry Kudlow’s history of bad economic calls – MarketWatch”
“6 of Larry Kudlow’s Not-So-on-the-Money Predictions”
“New Trump Economist Kudlow Has Been Wrong About Everything”
The guy is basically a reverse Oracle of Omaha. Just betting against everything he says will bring you profits cause he seems to mistime booms/recessions in absolute reverse
So basically expect -1% GDP average for next 10 years, not +1%. :S
The US can not sustain a 3%+ GDP growth.
It is growing 3.5% now thanks to huge infusion of debt
Kudlow is a well known right wing non-economist who has been predicting that there wouldhave
been no recession in 2008.
He is derided by the whole econoists community
Someone must be dumbh as snort to consider him of any value
In 1-2 years there will be another huge recession in the US and China will pass