US Crude oil will pass 12 million bpd in mid-2019

US crude oil production is at 11.6 million barrels per day and will pass 12 million barrels per day in mid-2019.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in October, down slightly from September levels because of hurricane-related outages in the Gulf of Mexico. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.

For 2019, production is expected to rise 1.16 million bpd from the prior year, more than EIA’s previous forecast for a 1.02-million bpd rise.

The agency’s monthly report said EIA expects production to surge above 12 million bpd in the second quarter of 2019, sooner than its previous estimate of the fourth quarter.

Output this year is forecast to rise by 1.55 million bpd to 10.90 million bpd. That projected increase is an upward revision from its earlier estimate of a 1.39 million bpd rise.

US Solar

EIA expects total U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 Megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems.

52 thoughts on “US Crude oil will pass 12 million bpd in mid-2019”

  1. MAGA! Hell yeah!

    And we can let the Persian Gulf go up in flames, too. In fact, that would only be FURTHER in America’s interest now.

  2. You really, really should learn some basic economics:

    In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand. The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics. However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.

  3. Someone please adjust the picture of the oil rig to one where a big ball of dynamite hangs on the fulcrum of the rig.

  4. Someone please adjust the picture of the oil rig to one where a big ball of dynamite hangs on the fulcrum of the rig.

  5. MAGA! Hell yeah!And we can let the Persian Gulf go up in flames, too. In fact, that would only be FURTHER in America’s interest now.

  6. You really, really should learn some basic economics:In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand. The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics. However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.

  7. You really, really should learn some basic economics:

    In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand. The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics. However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.

  8. Someone please adjust the picture of the oil rig to one where a big ball of dynamite hangs on the fulcrum of the rig.

  9. Exactly. But unlike a normal cartel, the U.S. uses political pressure, “buy our LNG or else”, “we’ll buy your crude, but then you need to….” “sorry, but we don’t need your oil and we won’t let you sell yours”. It is weaponized. Cartels are so old school when instead you can just switch off someone’s production with a pen stroke.

  10. Exactly. But unlike a normal cartel, the U.S. uses political pressure, “buy our LNG or else”, “we’ll buy your crude, but then you need to….” “sorry, but we don’t need your oil and we won’t let you sell yours”. It is weaponized.

    Cartels are so old school when instead you can just switch off someone’s production with a pen stroke.

  11. But the US will drill and pump so long as there is one dollar of profit to be made.No cutting back on output, no cartel behavior.

  12. Sanctions are coming for Iran and oil prices are at a low.So yeah the “Sanction us and Oil goes to $100” card isn’t working out too well for Iran.Put another way I would definitively rather be the US than Iran.

  13. Sanctions are coming for Iran and oil prices are at a low.

    So yeah the “Sanction us and Oil goes to $100” card isn’t working out too well for Iran.

    Put another way I would definitively rather be the US than Iran.

  14. We should focus on increasing production but focus on decreasing consumption because doing so is cheaper and more productive. The simple act of substituting natural gas for home heating and industrial processes would decrease consumption by 30%. Using pluggable hybrid and EV cars and trucks could decrease our oil consumption by 50%. Doing so will not only save us money but it will preserve our oil resources for a much longer period and reduce air pollution.

  15. CHK default? Really? Why doesn’t their cash flow statement point in that direction? Maybe you also forgot Moody’s just upgraded them. Further, CHK’s 2020 note (issued at par) is trading at 103. So how will an investor “lose principal” (and better yet, how is this even possible if held till maturity)??I’m not a CHK booster, but can’t follow you here.Interest rates don’t play a factor in the upstream oil business. Oil price does, and the timing differential between capex and production. By the way, this is true for basically all businesses. All you have to do is look at interest expense as % of revenue. Bond prices will of course fluctuate but what does that have to do with the company’s cash flow? CFO’s never look at coupon rates for long term debt refis (it is credit rating driven), the only metrics are cash flow and overall leverage.Tight oil is a game of drilling new wells faster than the old ones are being depleted. That’s all. There is no ponzi. To keep up with demand to about 12mb/d, the AEO forecasts 1m new wells need to be drilled by 2050. That is a very tall order, but the oil is there. A lot can happen between now and 30 years from now. For example, fuel efficiency in vehicles, nuclear power, more efficient extraction etc.

  16. As I’ve said all along, the U.S. is the new OPEC. The even bigger news here is that KAPSARC (Saudi energy policy body) has initiated a “study” to look at disbanding OPEC, or at least KSA membership.It is conceivable that KSA will form a new oil producing body with the U.S. Don’t forget the head of KAPSARC is American and used to head up EIA.

  17. We should focus on increasing production but focus on decreasing consumption because doing so is cheaper and more productive. The simple act of substituting natural gas for home heating and industrial processes would decrease consumption by 30%. Using pluggable hybrid and EV cars and trucks could decrease our oil consumption by 50%. Doing so will not only save us money but it will preserve our oil resources for a much longer period and reduce air pollution.

  18. CHK default? Really? Why doesn’t their cash flow statement point in that direction? Maybe you also forgot Moody’s just upgraded them. Further, CHK’s 2020 note (issued at par) is trading at 103. So how will an investor “lose principal” (and better yet, how is this even possible if held till maturity)??
    I’m not a CHK booster, but can’t follow you here.

    Interest rates don’t play a factor in the upstream oil business. Oil price does, and the timing differential between capex and production. By the way, this is true for basically all businesses. All you have to do is look at interest expense as % of revenue. Bond prices will of course fluctuate but what does that have to do with the company’s cash flow? CFO’s never look at coupon rates for long term debt refis (it is credit rating driven), the only metrics are cash flow and overall leverage.

    Tight oil is a game of drilling new wells faster than the old ones are being depleted. That’s all. There is no ponzi. To keep up with demand to about 12mb/d, the AEO forecasts 1m new wells need to be drilled by 2050. That is a very tall order, but the oil is there. A lot can happen between now and 30 years from now. For example, fuel efficiency in vehicles, nuclear power, more efficient extraction etc.

  19. As I’ve said all along, the U.S. is the new OPEC. The even bigger news here is that KAPSARC (Saudi energy policy body) has initiated a “study” to look at disbanding OPEC, or at least KSA membership.
    It is conceivable that KSA will form a new oil producing body with the U.S. Don’t forget the head of KAPSARC is American and used to head up EIA.

  20. Frank’s link is just to the school-children level writeup. To get the adult level details google “Macroscopic heat release in a molecular solar thermal energy storage system” It turns out less good on closer inspection. Yes it stores heat, in a metastable way that can be turned on and off. But the temperature rise is only 63°C. That’s only going to work for hot water systems or building heating. You aren’t going to generate power or drive engines with that.

  21. Turns out that you can just google search the link as written and it takes you right there. No need to manually change dash to /

  22. https dash dash www dot sciencealertdot com/scientists-develop-liquid-that-sucks-up-sun-s-energySince the first reference was deleted. 🙁

  23. I see that due to this the Iranian “regime” is down to their knees And Mexico paid for the wall! Luca Mazza (R) for prez!

  24. Wonderful news re the long term efficacy of solar power: There’s been a breakthrough in energy storage for heat, though not electricity. Closed system, would allow solar energy to be stored during the day and then released as heat during the night or even a cloudy day. Stores energy for up to 18 years (!) with little loss.Still in developmental stage, they say commercial practicality is likely ten years away. If they succeed, it won’t mean the end of fossil fuels, but it will definitely make solar far more practical.

  25. But weren’t we told by the Smartest President Ever that drilling wouldn’t help solve our energy problems?Let me fill my tank with $2.21 gallon gas while you ponder the question….

  26. So you made $billions shorting their stocks? Well done William! Amazing foresight.Vladimir Putin made similar calculations and decided that Russia had nothing to fear from US oil and gas production.

  27. The rate at which the tight oil wells that would have to be drilled is highly dependent on interest rates, and the willingness of suckers to buy the bonds of companies that are on the edge of bankruptcy. People with investments in bond fund will be very upset, as interest rates are raised higher. Not only will bond owners lose principal, because of rising interest rates, many tight oil companies, like Chesapeake oil will default on their bonds.I looked into the tight oil business, as an investment a decade ago. You had to read between the lines, but once I realized how much the “treatment” of the well post drilling cost, and how quickly the wells depleted, I realized it was a near ponzi scheme, that could not exist without near zero short, and long term rates synthesized by the fed.

  28. The rate at which the tight oil wells that would have to be drilled is highly dependent on interest rates, and the willingness of suckers to buy the bonds of companies that are on the edge of bankruptcy. People with investments in bond fund will be very upset, as interest rates are raised higher. Not only will bond owners lose principal, because of rising interest rates, many tight oil companies, like Chesapeake oil will default on their bonds.
    I looked into the tight oil business, as an investment a decade ago. You had to read between the lines, but once I realized how much the “treatment” of the well post drilling cost, and how quickly the wells depleted, I realized it was a near ponzi scheme, that could not exist without near zero short, and long term rates synthesized by the fed.

  29. Frank’s link is just to the school-children level writeup.

    To get the adult level details google “Macroscopic heat release in a molecular solar thermal energy storage system”

    It turns out less good on closer inspection. Yes it stores heat, in a metastable way that can be turned on and off. But the temperature rise is only 63°C. That’s only going to work for hot water systems or building heating. You aren’t going to generate power or drive engines with that.

  30. Wonderful news re the long term efficacy of solar power: There’s been a breakthrough in energy storage for heat, though not electricity. Closed system, would allow solar energy to be stored during the day and then released as heat during the night or even a cloudy day. Stores energy for up to 18 years (!) with little loss.

    Still in developmental stage, they say commercial practicality is likely ten years away. If they succeed, it won’t mean the end of fossil fuels, but it will definitely make solar far more practical.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-develop-liquid-that-sucks-up-sun-s-energy

  31. But weren’t we told by the Smartest President Ever that drilling wouldn’t help solve our energy problems?

    Let me fill my tank with $2.21 gallon gas while you ponder the question….

  32. So you made $billions shorting their stocks? Well done William! Amazing foresight.

    Vladimir Putin made similar calculations and decided that Russia had nothing to fear from US oil and gas production.

  33. We should focus on increasing production but focus on decreasing consumption because doing so is cheaper and more productive. The simple act of substituting natural gas for home heating and industrial processes would decrease consumption by 30%. Using pluggable hybrid and EV cars and trucks could decrease our oil consumption by 50%. Doing so will not only save us money but it will preserve our oil resources for a much longer period and reduce air pollution.

  34. As I’ve said all along, the U.S. is the new OPEC. The even bigger news here is that KAPSARC (Saudi energy policy body) has initiated a “study” to look at disbanding OPEC, or at least KSA membership.It is conceivable that KSA will form a new oil producing body with the U.S. Don’t forget the head of KAPSARC is American and used to head up EIA.

  35. I see that due to this the Iranian “regime” is down to their knees And Mexico paid for the wall! Luca Mazza (R) for prez!

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