Venezuela is months from the end game of total chaos or a coup

Venezuela’s consumer prices rose 834,000 percent in the 12 months through October, according to a report published by the opposition-controlled Congress. The IMF expects hyperinflation to reach 10 million percent in 2019.

The number of private businesses operating in Venezuela has plummeted from 650,000 in 1998 to only 140,000 in September.

Venezuela has $150 billion (163% of GDP) in debt. They are late on $6-billion worth of debt interest payments.

The estimate of the number of venezuelans who have fled the country has passed 3 million.

Oil production collapse seems truly unsustainable

From 2002 through 2015, Venezuela had stable oil production at 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. It slid to 2 million barrels of oil per day from the start of 2016 to mid-2017. In September, 2018 oil production was about 1.28 million barrels of oil per day. This was half the 2002-2015 level. In October, oil production was at about 1.0 million barrels of oil per day.

Venezuela oil figures are not clear but analysts believe oil production has fallen below 1 million barrels per day or will in November or December.

The worst-case scenario is oil output falls to a couple of hundred thousand bpd in the months ahead and into 2019. Oil is 95% of its export revenues. Collapsing to that level will mean many core supporters will not be paid.

It seems that if Maduro cannot pay off thousands of key generals and military officers then he will finally lose control.

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