Venezuela is months from the end game of total chaos or a coup

Venezuela’s consumer prices rose 834,000 percent in the 12 months through October, according to a report published by the opposition-controlled Congress. The IMF expects hyperinflation to reach 10 million percent in 2019.

The number of private businesses operating in Venezuela has plummeted from 650,000 in 1998 to only 140,000 in September.

Venezuela has $150 billion (163% of GDP) in debt. They are late on $6-billion worth of debt interest payments.

The estimate of the number of venezuelans who have fled the country has passed 3 million.

Oil production collapse seems truly unsustainable

From 2002 through 2015, Venezuela had stable oil production at 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. It slid to 2 million barrels of oil per day from the start of 2016 to mid-2017. In September, 2018 oil production was about 1.28 million barrels of oil per day. This was half the 2002-2015 level. In October, oil production was at about 1.0 million barrels of oil per day.

Venezuela oil figures are not clear but analysts believe oil production has fallen below 1 million barrels per day or will in November or December.

The worst-case scenario is oil output falls to a couple of hundred thousand bpd in the months ahead and into 2019. Oil is 95% of its export revenues. Collapsing to that level will mean many core supporters will not be paid.

It seems that if Maduro cannot pay off thousands of key generals and military officers then he will finally lose control.

49 thoughts on “Venezuela is months from the end game of total chaos or a coup”

  1. Wait till the Chinese want to get their billions back and send in some troops to… uhh… take the oil fields as repayment?Nah too crazy.

  2. He’s a fatti so i’m sure he won’t notice anything until people are out of zoo-animal-meat and want to cook him.

  3. “Dunno why people are always saying Socialism was the cause of Venezuela falling.”Narrator voice: “In actuality it was caused by the aggressive adoption of Socialist policies involving nationalization of all parts of Venezuela’s economy not limited to oil production, food production, and medical care”.

  4. Big difference. Chaos is just the total breakdown of all law and order with a reversion to the state of nature which I am constantly told by Rawlsians doesn’t actually exist.Coup implies that someone will take over and some vague semblance of order will exist.

  5. “If the political leadership runs off to North Korea one night”I’ll pay good money to watch that happen. Maybe we can make it a reality TV show.

  6. “Dunno why people are always saying Socialism was the cause of Venezuela falling.”

    Narrator voice: “In actuality it was caused by the aggressive adoption of Socialist policies involving nationalization of all parts of Venezuela’s economy not limited to oil production, food production, and medical care”.

  7. Big difference. Chaos is just the total breakdown of all law and order with a reversion to the state of nature which I am constantly told by Rawlsians doesn’t actually exist.

    Coup implies that someone will take over and some vague semblance of order will exist.

  8. I was in Venezuela in 1983 and the country was not rich, but it had a vibrant middle class, thrifty businesses, growing oil exports, and the people seemed happy. Then the communists took over with the help of Castro and a bunch of lying, degenerate, Hollywood millionaires. They told lies to the lower classes and now the nation is in ruins and the good people suffering. It is clear the same rats are trying to destroy America but millions of us are not going to let that happen, and more than a few Cubans and Venezuelans will stand with us.God help Venezuela and it’s good people!!

  9. I was in Venezuela in 1983 and the country was not rich, but it had a vibrant middle class, thrifty businesses, growing oil exports, and the people seemed happy. Then the communists took over with the help of Castro and a bunch of lying, degenerate, Hollywood millionaires. They told lies to the lower classes and now the nation is in ruins and the good people suffering. It is clear the same rats are trying to destroy America but millions of us are not going to let that happen, and more than a few Cubans and Venezuelans will stand with us.
    God help Venezuela and it’s good people!!

  10. Sorry mate, but how can you start a business when the government hates private companies. The companies that still stand must be very important therefore the gov can’t seize them.

  11. We been saying that this criminals are going to go for years now. They have absolute control over the country, we just live worse and worse everyday. Communism never fails.

  12. This, compare to the US and Canada, the two countries are very different still successful. South of US not so successful.

  13. It’s not capitalism when contracts are renounced, and assets are nationalized. The destruction of property rights is always occurs at the onset of socialism, starvation occurs in the death throes.Venezuela started down hill, as soon as government started taking over industry, it took a while before people noticed things were getting worse.

  14. The V military has been winnowed of any brass that gave a crap about the citizens since the socialists took over. If the political leadership runs off to North Korea one night, a coup will be announced the next day, so the top officers can steal what ever is left.

  15. Yeah I don’t get supporters of UBI. If they think the opioid crisis in the U.S. is bad now, give people money and nothing to do but party and see how much worse it gets. To add to it anyway they just approved sufentanil, which is 1,000 times more potent than morphine and 10 times stronger than fentanyl. People will be dropping like mayflies when this hits the streets.

  16. “GDP – composition by sector: agriculture: 4.4%industry: 38.2%services: 57.4% (2017 est.)”95% of their exports were petroleum. Not GDP

  17. It’s not capitalism when contracts are renounced, and assets are nationalized. The destruction of property rights is always occurs at the onset of socialism, starvation occurs in the death throes.
    Venezuela started down hill, as soon as government started taking over industry, it took a while before people noticed things were getting worse.

  18. The V military has been winnowed of any brass that gave a crap about the citizens since the socialists took over. If the political leadership runs off to North Korea one night, a coup will be announced the next day, so the top officers can steal what ever is left.

  19. No mor0n, oil was not 95% of their GDP. It might have been 95% of their exports–I don’t know of anything else they could export that people want. They could have a thriving tourism industry if they hadn’t made themselves a communist hellhole.

  20. …because “This time it will be different!” <– UBI proponents are saying that increasingly as well

  21. ..except having 95% of your GDP based on one commodity wasn’t the cause of this disaster: Socialist policies on the rest of the economy was.

  22. Fixed prices destroyed local production and bribes for the ruling party political clientele made them dependent on oil. Opposition is too weak due to hunger and poverty to fight, those who can flee are doing it.Now Maduro needs the oil money to keep those with the guns on his side. Lest Venezuela lose the ability of keeping them paid, they will turn on him quickly and/or the country will fall into complete chaos.Military leaders seem to be little more than paid thugs by now, with a Cuban backed secret service keeping the backstabbings and coups at bay.Yes, Venezuelans are policed and snitched by foreigners with an interest in keeping the whole pathetic circus going.

  23. Dunno why people are always saying Socialism was the cause of Venezuela falling. It’s pretty obvious that having 95% of your GDP based on one commodity is a recipe for disaster. A shitty application of capitalism is what caused it to fall.

  24. Venezuela isn’t in real trouble until Maduro can’t find anything to eat. Let’s hope he is eaten instead.

  25. Yep. Socialism Latin American style has failed miserably over and over again. So this is exactly to be expected. Yet so many still believe in this failed ideology.

  26. Yeah I don’t get supporters of UBI. If they think the opioid crisis in the U.S. is bad now, give people money and nothing to do but party and see how much worse it gets. To add to it anyway they just approved sufentanil, which is 1,000 times more potent than morphine and 10 times stronger than fentanyl. People will be dropping like mayflies when this hits the streets.

  27. No mor0n, oil was not 95% of their GDP. It might have been 95% of their exports–I don’t know of anything else they could export that people want. They could have a thriving tourism industry if they hadn’t made themselves a communist hellhole.

  28. Fixed prices destroyed local production and bribes for the ruling party political clientele made them dependent on oil. Opposition is too weak due to hunger and poverty to fight, those who can flee are doing it.

    Now Maduro needs the oil money to keep those with the guns on his side. Lest Venezuela lose the ability of keeping them paid, they will turn on him quickly and/or the country will fall into complete chaos.

    Military leaders seem to be little more than paid thugs by now, with a Cuban backed secret service keeping the backstabbings and coups at bay.

    Yes, Venezuelans are policed and snitched by foreigners with an interest in keeping the whole pathetic circus going.

  29. Dunno why people are always saying Socialism was the cause of Venezuela falling. It’s pretty obvious that having 95% of your GDP based on one commodity is a recipe for disaster. A shitty application of capitalism is what caused it to fall.

  30. I was in Venezuela in 1983 and the country was not rich, but it had a vibrant middle class, thrifty businesses, growing oil exports, and the people seemed happy. Then the communists took over with the help of Castro and a bunch of lying, degenerate, Hollywood millionaires. They told lies to the lower classes and now the nation is in ruins and the good people suffering. It is clear the same rats are trying to destroy America but millions of us are not going to let that happen, and more than a few Cubans and Venezuelans will stand with us.God help Venezuela and it’s good people!!

  31. We been saying that this criminals are going to go for years now. They have absolute control over the country, we just live worse and worse everyday. Communism never fails.

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