Tesla sold about 55,000 Model 3s in the Third quarter. Estimates are for about 62,000 to be sold in the fourth quarter. 2019 has a lot of uncertainty.
The backlog of orders is being delivered in 2018.
Tesla has significant growth opportunities for the Model 3. These include leasing and lower-price variants and by starting international deliveries to China and Europe.
The federal tax credits for $7500 per can will phase out in 2019. California has a $2,500 subsidy for electric-car purchases.
Federal Tax Credit For Vehicles Delivered $7,500 On or before December 31, 2018 $3,750 January 1 to June 30, 2019 $1,875 July 1 to December 31, 2019
Other states have tax rebates for electric car purchases.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Max, I’m not an insider, so you should take my opinion with a grain of salt, okay?Here is my opinion: Elon Musk is a high profile public personality. He generates news coverage, and millions of people are following his every utterance.So of course he influences demand for Tesla products. And of course Musk and Tesla know this. I’m pretty sure that Tesla is conscious of the effects of viral videos and tweets on how the company is perceived and how that relates to demand for their products.Eventually, they’ll get to the point where they will want to advertise to stimulate more demand, but not soon. There’s still a vast quantity of demand that they’ll be able to reach without advertising – both within and outside of the United States.
Hi Urgelt, if they’ve never advertised, then is it a conscious marketing decision to just let Elon do his thing on stage and let the online video go virual?
Max, I’m not an insider, so you should take my opinion with a grain of salt, okay?
Here is my opinion: Elon Musk is a high profile public personality. He generates news coverage, and millions of people are following his every utterance.
So of course he influences demand for Tesla products. And of course Musk and Tesla know this. I’m pretty sure that Tesla is conscious of the effects of viral videos and tweets on how the company is perceived and how that relates to demand for their products.
Eventually, they’ll get to the point where they will want to advertise to stimulate more demand, but not soon. There’s still a vast quantity of demand that they’ll be able to reach without advertising – both within and outside of the United States.
Tesla only just got started. It is still a startup. Comparing it’s sales to established automotive companies is a bit of a fallacy. What is important is that it is profitable now.Also worth mentioning that Tesla is the only US car company other than Ford that did not go banrupt.
In the latest Musk Recode interview he did outline that they have a new “larger” powerwall coming up geared further towards utilities that would be “compelling”. I think the solar tile and power storage might be the real income streams once they scale to commercial sizes.
Nice @Matheus :DI suspect he must be some sort of masochist to keep getting downvoted like that and keep spewing the rage so continuously. That or some sort of parasite has him hijacked
Tesla only just got started. It is still a startup. Comparing it’s sales to established automotive companies is a bit of a fallacy. What is important is that it is profitable now.
Also worth mentioning that Tesla is the only US car company other than Ford that did not go banrupt.
Tesla has never advertised. Not once. Why would anyone worry about demand for Tesla’s vehicles? There’s untapped demand galore in the US, never mind overseas, where Tesla has barely scratched the surface.They will sell every car they can make for years to come. The tricky part is avoiding stimulating too much demand and ending up with long-lasting backorders and irate consumers.
No, I am not.All Tesla sales have to be compared to automotive industry sales. Those sales figures are crâp by those standards. AND the Musk Fluffers on here said that the 400,000 or so Tesla VIN registrations were as good as sales! So, I am not missing anything.
Already documented it. Go look it up.If you are gonna troll, try not to leave a trail behind of proof against your trolling.
I think you are missing my point…
OK APEHOLE, find a comment where I said anything about VIN numbers.
Yes. Started with Brian hyping them, me pointing out that VIN registrations do not equal sales and you Musk Fluffers screaming that it did mean sales.
Exactly.
55,000 sold is ‘cruhing it’.I notice that you are still high on the Musk Fluffing Kool-Aide if you think so.
The “Powerwall” concept is actually provocative: it is the ready answer to the unrequested “need”, for people who have opted to pave their roofs with solar cell panels. At least in Kalifornia, we have a kleptomaniacal power monopoly — Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) — which is heavily ‘regulated’ by the California government. However, PG&E has long been in a position to lobby for its rates to rise quite apart from those enjoyed by most other states, without significant challenge since the 1970s. I, for instance, in Hayward California (just north of San Jose), am paying 18¢/kWh for the BASE kilowatt hours and nearly 22.5¢/kWh for the “above first tier” k’s. Moreover, if I install an oversized solar power panel array on my well-positioned (exactly south facing, and also 30° tilt) roof (I’ve calculated it could hold about 25 kW of peak-output panels at 85¢/W raw panel cost), and if I get permission to install the special metering-and-switching equipment to “sell back” excess power to PG&E, guess what. Their power BUY price is only 3.5¢/kWh, last I looked. Truely, I’d like to go 100% grid-free. And that’d take something like PowerWall, or any competition that accomplishes similar capacity, or perhaps better $/kWh cost. The financial argument tho’ is … interesting, and rather hard to integrate competently. I’ve done my homework tho’, and here’s what I have found. kW peak: 10.5panel: 255 W ($215/ea)panels: 44 ($9,500 + shipping + labor)frames: 22 (“dual” arrangement) ($1,380 + shipping)impedance leveling: 44 ($1,850)inverter: 3 ea, 10 kW ea. (1 backup, dark) (3 × $1300 = $4,000)grid hardware: NONE (going gridless)battery: 20 kWh ($3,000)generator: 8 kW, natural gas ($2,000)electrical: various stuff. ($1,500 + labor)est labor: $2,000TOTAL: $25,300 est. All in.Our power use is $330 at 20¢/kWh blended from PG&E, per mo. 1,650 kWh/mo. Lots of lights, refrigerators, computers, big TVs, crâhp space heaters, you name it. 1,650 ÷ 30 = 55 kWh/day. 10.5 kW (peak) × 5.5 kWh/kW-day = 57.5 kWh/day. Best “average” case. Worse in winter, better in summer. System life: 10 years without sig. investment. Cost per kWh: -pmt( 6% ÷ 20,000 kWh/year, 10 yr × 20,000 kWh/year, $20,000 ) = 16.3¢/kWhThat, right there, is better than PG&E is charging, even at its base rate. Sure, I will have to get out the power washer-on-a-long-pole and wash the panels every month. And sure, something is bound to break in the system from time to time. But… grid free?And WEATHER independent (that natural gas generator)?CompellingGoatGuy
I don’t understand: The US tax incentives shouldn’t be applied to foreign countries. I rather doubt Tesla can underprice a China corporation electric car, unless The China Tesla is built in China with some connection with China government.
Whether net metering is a good thing for most of the people in a region depends mostly on whether the price for electricity going through those meters varies with short term supply & demand. If it does not then you can get lots of eg: solar electricity when there is low demand & customers of the utility end up paying for electricity that no one wants. If it does then there is an incentive to add solar panels only if there is greater demand than supply during daylight hours & an incentive to add (sufficiently cheap) storage so eg: the excess solar electricity generated during the day can be sold in the evening when power is wanted.
In the latest Musk Recode interview he did outline that they have a new “larger” powerwall coming up geared further towards utilities that would be “compelling”. I think the solar tile and power storage might be the real income streams once they scale to commercial sizes.
Nice @Matheus 😀
I suspect he must be some sort of masochist to keep getting downvoted like that and keep spewing the rage so continuously.
That or some sort of parasite has him hijacked
Tesla has never advertised. Not once. Why would anyone worry about demand for Tesla’s vehicles? There’s untapped demand galore in the US, never mind overseas, where Tesla has barely scratched the surface.
They will sell every car they can make for years to come. The tricky part is avoiding stimulating too much demand and ending up with long-lasting backorders and irate consumers.
No, I am not.
All Tesla sales have to be compared to automotive industry sales. Those sales figures are crâp by those standards. AND the Musk Fluffers on here said that the 400,000 or so Tesla VIN registrations were as good as sales!
So, I am not missing anything.
Already documented it. Go look it up.
If you are gonna troll, try not to leave a trail behind of proof against your trolling.
I think you are missing my point…
OK APEHOLE, find a comment where I said anything about VIN numbers.
Yes. Started with Brian hyping them, me pointing out that VIN registrations do not equal sales and you Musk Fluffers screaming that it did mean sales.
Exactly.
55,000 sold is ‘cruhing it’.
I notice that you are still high on the Musk Fluffing Kool-Aide if you think so.
The “Powerwall” concept is actually provocative: it is the ready answer to the unrequested “need”, for people who have opted to pave their roofs with solar cell panels.
At least in Kalifornia, we have a kleptomaniacal power monopoly — Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) — which is heavily ‘regulated’ by the California government. However, PG&E has long been in a position to lobby for its rates to rise quite apart from those enjoyed by most other states, without significant challenge since the 1970s.
I, for instance, in Hayward California (just north of San Jose), am paying 18¢/kWh for the BASE kilowatt hours and nearly 22.5¢/kWh for the “above first tier” k’s. Moreover, if I install an oversized solar power panel array on my well-positioned (exactly south facing, and also 30° tilt) roof (I’ve calculated it could hold about 25 kW of peak-output panels at 85¢/W raw panel cost), and if I get permission to install the special metering-and-switching equipment to “sell back” excess power to PG&E, guess what. Their power BUY price is only 3.5¢/kWh, last I looked.
Truely, I’d like to go 100% grid-free.
And that’d take something like PowerWall, or any competition that accomplishes similar capacity, or perhaps better $/kWh cost.
The financial argument tho’ is … interesting, and rather hard to integrate competently. I’ve done my homework tho’, and here’s what I have found.
kW peak: 10.5
panel: 255 W ($215/ea)
panels: 44 ($9,500 + shipping + labor)
frames: 22 (“dual” arrangement) ($1,380 + shipping)
impedance leveling: 44 ($1,850)
inverter: 3 ea, 10 kW ea. (1 backup, dark) (3 × $1300 = $4,000)
grid hardware: NONE (going gridless)
battery: 20 kWh ($3,000)
generator: 8 kW, natural gas ($2,000)
electrical: various stuff. ($1,500 + labor)
est labor: $2,000
TOTAL: $25,300 est. All in.
Our power use is $330 at 20¢/kWh blended from PG&E, per mo. 1,650 kWh/mo. Lots of lights, refrigerators, computers, big TVs, crâhp space heaters, you name it.
1,650 ÷ 30 = 55 kWh/day.
10.5 kW (peak) × 5.5 kWh/kW-day = 57.5 kWh/day. Best “average” case. Worse in winter, better in summer.
System life: 10 years without sig. investment.
Cost per kWh: -pmt( 6% ÷ 20,000 kWh/year, 10 yr × 20,000 kWh/year, $20,000 ) = 16.3¢/kWh
That, right there, is better than PG&E is charging, even at its base rate.
Sure, I will have to get out the power washer-on-a-long-pole and wash the panels every month.
And sure, something is bound to break in the system from time to time.
But… grid free?
And WEATHER independent (that natural gas generator)?
Compelling
GoatGuy
I don’t understand: The US tax incentives shouldn’t be applied to foreign countries.
I rather doubt Tesla can underprice a China corporation electric car, unless The China Tesla is built in China with some connection with China government.
Whether net metering is a good thing for most of the people in a region depends mostly on whether the price for electricity going through those meters varies with short term supply & demand. If it does not then you can get lots of eg: solar electricity when there is low demand & customers of the utility end up paying for electricity that no one wants. If it does then there is an incentive to add solar panels only if there is greater demand than supply during daylight hours & an incentive to add (sufficiently cheap) storage so eg: the excess solar electricity generated during the day can be sold in the evening when power is wanted.
He is the biggest troll of NBF Look here: it.ly/2MeWYZTLuca Mazza (R)
Seriously, I had something to do with VIN numbers?You need help.
I noticed Warren was uncharacteristically silent when Tesla started crushing it with Model 3 sales, profitability etc. and there was an angst void in the comment sections. Glad the short seller(s) who pay you to be here cut another check… you were missed!
No, you are trying to avoid that embarrassing fact.
You are delirious dude. I’m starting to feel sorry for you.
These are the numbers for new sales in the 3rd Quarter and just for Model 3.
Nope. When you punks tried to pass off VIN registrations as bonafide SALES in the bank, you owned that going forward.
Nope, just more lies from APEMAN.
If they can’t sell enough cars, there is a huge market in batteries to power homes emerging. I think the reason Tesla recently raised the price of the “power wall” is that they were finally beginning to produce model 3s at a respectable rate.The cells for the car, and the wall are not the same. They use the same raw materials, not in the same amounts, and they are manufactured on the same machinery. Until cell production can be expanded, how many cars can be built is a function of how many power walls are being built, and vice versa.Eventually, utilities will lobby away net metering, so they can screw their customers further. Then you’ll see the home battery market really take off, so people can do their own net metering
You are one of those pushing that BS. So you are the one who has to explain this.
Hahahahaha! Nailed !
He is the biggest troll of NBF
Look here: it.ly/2MeWYZT
Luca Mazza (R)
If the tax incentive is kept, they can still double the sales once the markets in China and Europe are opened.
You’re the BS artist around here. You tell us.
55,000 sold in Q3? What happened to the HUNDREDS of thousands previously BS’d about here on NBF?
Seriously, I had something to do with VIN numbers?
You need help.
If they can’t sell enough cars, there is a huge market in batteries to power homes emerging. I think the reason Tesla recently raised the price of the “power wall” is that they were finally beginning to produce model 3s at a respectable rate.
The cells for the car, and the wall are not the same. They use the same raw materials, not in the same amounts, and they are manufactured on the same machinery. Until cell production can be expanded, how many cars can be built is a function of how many power walls are being built, and vice versa.
Eventually, utilities will lobby away net metering, so they can screw their customers further. Then you’ll see the home battery market really take off, so people can do their own net metering
I noticed Warren was uncharacteristically silent when Tesla started crushing it with Model 3 sales, profitability etc. and there was an angst void in the comment sections. Glad the short seller(s) who pay you to be here cut another check… you were missed!
No, you are trying to avoid that embarrassing fact.
You are delirious dude. I’m starting to feel sorry for you.
These are the numbers for new sales in the 3rd Quarter and just for Model 3.
Nope. When you punks tried to pass off VIN registrations as bonafide SALES in the bank, you owned that going forward.
Nope, just more lies from APEMAN.
You are one of those pushing that BS. So you are the one who has to explain this.
Hahahahaha!
Nailed !
If the tax incentive is kept, they can still double the sales once the markets in China and Europe are opened.
You’re the BS artist around here. You tell us.
55,000 sold in Q3? What happened to the HUNDREDS of thousands previously BS’d about here on NBF?
Tesla has never advertised. Not once. Why would anyone worry about demand for Tesla’s vehicles? There’s untapped demand galore in the US, never mind overseas, where Tesla has barely scratched the surface.They will sell every car they can make for years to come. The tricky part is avoiding stimulating too much demand and ending up with long-lasting backorders and irate consumers.