World economic change to 2040 is Asia from South America to Southern Europe level

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The World economic transformation over the next twenty years is Asia moving past South America in the next five years on per capita income. Most of China moving to Southern European levels by 2030. Southern Asia (India, Indonesia) reaching South American levels in per capita income around 2030. China reaching European levels around 2040. India and ASEAN getting close to Southern European levels around 2040.

From 2000 to 2010, Asia had one quarter to one-third of the per capita income of South America.

Currently on a per capita level, Asia and South America are close with Asia having about 80-90% of the per capita income of South America. Overall Asia is growing at 4-8% per year and South America at 0-3% per year.

The World Bank has cut the prediction for Brazil’s GDP growth in 2018 from 2.4 to 1.2 percent. The 2019 Brazilian growth estimate was also cut from 2.5% to 2.2%.

Brazil is the dominates South America’s per capita GDP statistics. Half of the population of South America is in Brazil. 210 million in Brazil and 430 million in South America.

China and India dominate Asia GDP statistics. They each represent about 30% of the overall population.

China will pass Brazil in per capita GDP in 2019.

China’s GDP per capita will be 20 to 30% beyond Brazil by 2023.

Around 2028 to 2035, India and the ASEAN countries will be around the per capita income level of South America. India and most of the population of the ASEAN countries are currently at the 25-30% of the per capita income level of South America.

30 thoughts on “World economic change to 2040 is Asia from South America to Southern Europe level”

  1. How could Latin America rival Asia when it has the most un-inventive and un-innovative of all cultures brought upon by decrepit Spain and Portugal?!!!

  2. Asia is headed straight into its own version of WWI, with naval engagements and island invasions like those in WWII.

  4. Not the same.

    The ‘debt’ is receipts from raiding the fund, just like they raid the Highway Trust Fund.

    But it is all just moving tax collections from one fund to another. And the fund (technically) gets interest payments for it. This doesn’t involve the banking system nor money supply.

    Chinese SOEs borrow money from the banking system, which means it needs to be paid back. And a lot of that credit is monetized by the PBC. For every Yuan issued by the PBC, there has to be a valid debt instrument backing it. No valid debt instrument, well…problems happen.

    Not to mention the fact that 80% of monetary capital still goes to the insolvent SOEs, while only the remaining 20% goes to truly private, profit-making (or at least in the black operating) enterprises.

  5. Apparently the Supreme Court has never been asked to rule on whether states can recall Senators and Representatives of the US Congress. I guess they’d get the chance if the SS debt was ‘written off’… 🙂

  6. I like to combine humor and accuracy while avoiding ad hominem and empty ridicule.

    That’s why I’m so loved.

  7. By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.Just sayin’…

  9. Not the same.The ‘debt’ is receipts from raiding the fund, just like they raid the Highway Trust Fund.But it is all just moving tax collections from one fund to another. And the fund (technically) gets interest payments for it. This doesn’t involve the banking system nor money supply.Chinese SOEs borrow money from the banking system, which means it needs to be paid back. And a lot of that credit is monetized by the PBC. For every Yuan issued by the PBC, there has to be a valid debt instrument backing it. No valid debt instrument, well…problems happen.Not to mention the fact that 80% of monetary capital still goes to the insolvent SOEs, while only the remaining 20% goes to truly private, profit-making (or at least in the black operating) enterprises.

  10. Not the same.

    The ‘debt’ is receipts from raiding the fund, just like they raid the Highway Trust Fund.

    But it is all just moving tax collections from one fund to another. And the fund (technically) gets interest payments for it. This doesn’t involve the banking system nor money supply.

    Chinese SOEs borrow money from the banking system, which means it needs to be paid back. And a lot of that credit is monetized by the PBC. For every Yuan issued by the PBC, there has to be a valid debt instrument backing it. No valid debt instrument, well…problems happen.

    Not to mention the fact that 80% of monetary capital still goes to the insolvent SOEs, while only the remaining 20% goes to truly private, profit-making (or at least in the black operating) enterprises.

  11. Apparently the Supreme Court has never been asked to rule on whether states can recall Senators and Representatives of the US Congress. I guess they’d get the chance if the SS debt was ‘written off’… 🙂

  12. Brazil, South Africa and Russia will still be among the giant economies in 2050. India and china will simply be the top largest economies.

  14. Isn’t some huge % of the US government debt owed to the the US Government Social Security division? Surely that could be just written off too?

  15. I like to combine humor and accuracy while avoiding ad hominem and empty ridicule. That’s why I’m so loved.

  16. Apparently the Supreme Court has never been asked to rule on whether states can recall Senators and Representatives of the US Congress. I guess they’d get the chance if the SS debt was ‘written off’… 🙂

  17. “By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American”Hahahahahahaha… You are SOO funny in your wu mau BS, Godfree. That I have to hand it to you.

  18. “Chinese SOEs debts are mostly owed to the state banks”That makes them government debts.”They can be written off with a stroke of the pen”No, they can’t. Not without horrible repercussions to the rest of the banking system and monetary system.

  20. “By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American”

    Hahahahahahaha… You are SOO funny in your wu mau BS, Godfree. That I have to hand it to you.

  21. “Chinese SOEs debts are mostly owed to the state banks”

    That makes them government debts.

    “They can be written off with a stroke of the pen”

    No, they can’t. Not without horrible repercussions to the rest of the banking system and monetary system.

  22. By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.Just sayin’…

  23. Chinese SOEs debts are mostly owed to the state banks. They can be written off with a stroke of the pen, but why? In the past, many SOEs are losing money and folded or sold off. Most of the SOEs left are money spinners. Even the Railroad, biggest debtor, own their own lands and buildings, large amounts of high value and rapidly rising premium estates.

  24. China is going down the tubes unless it privatizes/abolishes its SOEs and clears the huge amounts of debts they have incurred.

  25. Asia is headed straight into its own version of WWI, with naval engagements and island invasions like those in WWII.

  27. By 2021, 450,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of–and outlive–American kids.

    Just sayin’…

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