World environment and China’s energy from now to 2050

China is building most of the new energy generation in the world. How this power is generated will shape global climate.

1.5 degree scenario requires China to build 500 GW or more of nuclear power by 2050

Nuclear power capacity needs to reach 554 GW by 2050 for a 1.5 degree warming scenario. This would be 28% of the projected energy mix in 2050.

By 2050, China’s power generation will go from 6700 Terawatt hours this year to 14,000 Terawatt hours. This would be 10,320 kilowatt hours per capita.

This will require a $1 to 1.3 trillion investment by 2050. This will be about $2.2 trillion after accounting for inflation.

China spends almost $200 billion per year on fossil fuel energy. This would mean over $6 trillion on energy for the next three decades.

China has not approved new nuclear reactors for three years.

In June, 2018, China signed a $2.9 billion (20 billion yuan) deal for four Russian nuclear reactors. All four units will be Russia’s latest Gen3+ VVER-1200 reactors. The reactors and all other necessary equipment will be developed and supplied by Russia. Two reactors will be built at Xudabao and another two at Tianwan nuclear plants.

In March, 2018, they announced the freeze on new reactor construction will end by December 2018.

Electricity demand is still growing at 2.5% each year.

China has a target of 88GW of nuclear capacity built or under construction by 2020. This means China will need to authorize about 30 gigawatts of new nuclear plants over the next two years.

China’s sustainable development scenario plans for 24 percent more nuclear investment for the next 12 years. This could double China’s nuclear power from 58 GW in 2020 to about 110-120 GW by 2030.

Currently there are 46 completed nuclear reactors and 11 under construction.

China has 957 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power operating. This is more than four times India’s 219 GW. China currently has 126 GW of coal-fired power in construction and 76 GW either announced, in pre-permit phase or with permits already in place. India has 39 GW being built and 63 GW in the approval process.

10 thoughts on “World environment and China’s energy from now to 2050”

  1. The phrase ‘building more coal plants’ is misleading. In real life, China is building coal plants that are 40% more efficient than the coal plants they replace. Thanks to regulations passed ten years ago, no Australian coal plant could get an operating license based on emissions. And China’s per capita energy consumption is less than half America’s.

  2. The phrase ‘building more coal plants’ is misleading.

    In real life, China is building coal plants that are 40% more efficient than the coal plants they replace.

    Thanks to regulations passed ten years ago, no Australian coal plant could get an operating license based on emissions. And China’s per capita energy consumption is less than half America’s.

  3. It appears that China already has far more generation capacity than they need or use. Around 1700GW capacity from all sources (56% coal), but average daily consumption is around 450GW. Peak daily consumption typically might be 50% higher than average, which would be about 675GW peak demand. This jives with an article that claims current coal power plants are only about 50% utilized. And yet they’re building more, apparently in defiance of central government saying to stop!Are they building power plants just to create jobs and feed money to powerful companies (such as government owned coal companies)? And perhaps to keep absorbing chinese savings with bonds that appear very solid because they’re used to build physical capital?Nuclear is only about 2% of total capacity, but 3.5% of consumption. If the nuclear plants are being run at 90% average capacity, that again points to about 100% excess capacity.

  4. It appears that China already has far more generation capacity than they need or use. Around 1700GW capacity from all sources (56% coal), but average daily consumption is around 450GW. Peak daily consumption typically might be 50% higher than average, which would be about 675GW peak demand. This jives with an article that claims current coal power plants are only about 50% utilized. And yet they’re building more, apparently in defiance of central government saying to stop!

    Are they building power plants just to create jobs and feed money to powerful companies (such as government owned coal companies)? And perhaps to keep absorbing chinese savings with bonds that appear very solid because they’re used to build physical capital?

    Nuclear is only about 2% of total capacity, but 3.5% of consumption. If the nuclear plants are being run at 90% average capacity, that again points to about 100% excess capacity.

  5. Yeah… I’ve always held them in the highest regard since I spent my first four years working for their aero engine segment in Ohio. Without a doubt, the most competent and impressive engineering organization I’ve ever personally encountered… of course that whole house was built with military spending…

  6. I think GE was always more of a financial company than they were an engineering company. I remember years ago they use to cook the books so their corporate reports would look good.

  7. Obviously the air pollution in China must not be as bad as reported since they are planning to build more coal power plants. Instead of building more coal power plants they need to start retiring them. They should look at nuclear power plants as a job program. Also ramp up the renewable.

  8. They should install 400GW of LWR at big cluster stations to make efficient use of the workforce (roving shared maintenance, operations, health physics, engineering). When their economy slows or becomes more energy efficient, perhaps those stations will cover 50% baseload. Too bad they have a written policy not to use the BWR. Gosh if they made a contract with Hitachi to build 25 ABWRs, GE’s stock might tick back up a buck.Imagine the times we are living in. GE circling the drain over bad management and unwise acquisitions, not sticking to their core heavy industry…. telling us they were great the whole time. Meanwhile Amazon is a trillion-dollar company and musk manages to produce road-worthy cars from scratch…

  9. I think GE was always more of a financial company than they were an engineering company. I remember years ago they use to cook the books so their corporate reports would look good.

  10. Obviously the air pollution in China must not be as bad as reported since they are planning to build more coal power plants. Instead of building more coal power plants they need to start retiring them. They should look at nuclear power plants as a job program. Also ramp up the renewable.

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