2019 is the Year it Becomes Easier for Tesla

Tesla and Elon Musk had very high targets for production volume, performance and many other factors. They came up short of those targets but still achieved something amazing. This is Elon’s approach, make hugely ambitious targets and come up short by internal metrics yet still achieve more than competitors.

Tesla had to add a third assembly line with a lot of the line in a very large tent. They had to manually perform some of what they had hoped to automate. However, they still got to high targets. The Model 3 is among the top 6 US passenger cars in terms produced on a monthly or quarterly basis. The Model 3 is the US number one passenger car into of monthly sales revenue.

Building three assembly lines instead of two was a 50% miss in terms of planning what was needed.

Analyst Faragu believes that by eliminating downtime in the Fremont California Gigafactory, then Tesla will reach 7,000 cars per week. This will be 91,000 cars per quarter. This would make the Tesla Model 3 the number one US passenger car in terms of volume.

Tesla learned a lot from ramping up the California production. They will take what they learned to make a more efficient factory in China and have a smoother and easier production ramp.

Faragu believes that Tesla will be able to expand production volumes and margins. Margins last quarter in 2018Q3 were 22% on 56,000 cars. Tesla should be heading to 91,000 cars with max Fremont factory and then even double that with the China factory fully ramped. Sales will have lower car prices and leasing options to lower the costs to customers. They will be able to have double-digit profit margins and not just operating margin.

11 thoughts on “2019 is the Year it Becomes Easier for Tesla”

  1. Musk’s attempt to fully automate the line, the infamous “alien dreadnaught” quote, bit him but the lessons learned will probably make the the new chinese Gigafactory 3 line pretty impressive.

    Reply
  2. The issues with Tesla cars has been relatively minor, fit and finish. The drive train appears bullet proof. They may be the only EV with a battery cooling system, so the battery packs last longer.
    Far fewer moving parts than an internal combustion car. I don’t think they’re building Pinto’s or Yugo’s..

    I own a Model S, it’s incredible. You really have to borrow one for the weekend to understand the car. The only drawback appears to be relatively flat handling. It’s a very rigid system.

    Reply
  3. My 2004 Toyota Echo is still running fine. My only complaint is that the ‘check engine’ light turns on for stupid little things so I ignore it.

    Reply
  4. I had a Model S for three years. Early models like mine had the problem of the misaligned drive unit, which they replaced for free. I never paid anything for service or updates. Their customer service,at least here in Norway, was fantastic. Other than The drive unit, it was a wonderful and problem free car. I wish I still had it.

    Reply
  5. Toyota is so boring and so ugly. That aside, Toyota is not the main competitor for Tesla, it’s luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes and their quality sucks.

    Reply
  6. Sorry to pop your balloon but most cars work great at the beginning of their life. Get back to us in a couple of years because the Model S seems to age poorly so this might be a Tesla thing.

    Reply
  7. I only road in a Saab once in my life and when the car took a corner miscellaneous small parts fell out from the under side. 😉 Tesla better make this their priority or people will be telling stories like this about them in another 20 years.

    Reply
  8. At one point I was thinking of getting a Saab. I spoke to several Saab owners and they all told the same story:
    “Yes, it’s a fantastic car. So quiet and comfortable. Fairly quick. Very luxurious.
    But the engine blew up twice, and the gearbox once, and it cost $5000 to get it repaired each time.”

    Except of course for the guy whose story was
    “There was a minor bit of damage in a shopping center car park but when it was fixed and repainted it wouldn’t start. It took a team of auto electricians and Saab specialists 6 months and $3000 to work out what happened. The parking light had a new bulb in it that drew too much current so the computer kept shutting down.”

    That’s when I walked away and never looked at the things again.

    Reply
  9. Quality is an important area they haven’t adequately addressed. In certain circles Teslas cars have the reputation of having serious issues arise several years into the cars lifetime. Tesla risks becoming more like Saab than Toyota if they don’t address this now.

    Reply

Leave a Comment