China and Tesla both have a lot to gain by working together and they can each fix the others problems and weaknesses. I have written about this in a recent article, but I wanted to simplify my case. It happens to be a Tesla bull market case and is pro-China, but the point is that major global problems can be fixed and millions of lives can be saved with this alliance.
China views Elon Musk as a Steve Jobs class innovator and technologist. China views Tesla’s brand like Apples brand.
China has problems in the following priority:
1. They have a massive dependence on foreign oil. They are using 13 million barrels per day and this level is growing quickly. They importing about 9 million barrels per day and can make about 3.5 million barrels per day.
This 70% dependence on foreign oil is a huge strategic weakness. Ask Japan and Germany during World War 2, how well a country does with massive foreign oil dependence.
2. China has a massive air pollution problem. This kills 1.1 million people every year. This is an early death because of heart and lung disease. If you make everyone smoke 6 cigarettes a day including oil people, babies and asthmatics then you will increase hospitalization and deaths. The evidence of the correlation is from hundreds of studies over many decades and from the fact that when the air is worse more people go to the hospital that day and even that hour. The cause and effect is tight and immediate.
China is rapidly growing its middle class. Those middle class and affluent people are demanding cleaning air. They have coughing up black for decades and they can see their “air”. They do not need to ask a scientist what their problem is.
3. China wants more high tech jobs and they want to have more high-end products to export.
Tesla and Elon Musk have the following problems and priorities:
1. Tesla needs to produce more cars and make more money. Tesla is still facing huge financial risks because of the production levels and production problems they still have.
2. Elon Musk is driven to change the world with batteries, electric cars and his other solutions. Elon wants to make a maximum impact.
3. Elon Musk can come up with more ideas, than he can build. Tesla has had problems scaling up and building all the new products that Elon Musk wants to make.
These interests align with electric cars and batteries.
However, I am going mostly to skip over the important and profitable question of electric cars.
Elon, Tesla and China both win if the first Gigafactory in China is completed in 6 months and reaches maximum 500,000 car per year production within 2-3 years. China has the production capability to help Tesla ensures this happens. Tesla would have worries about production problems go away if this happens.
Tesla Semi Would be Huge for Both
The Tesla Semi is the most important product for both of them. China has the most trucks in the world. China has over half of the world’s trucks. They have about 22 million and they are buying 1.3 million big trucks and another 1 million smaller trucks. Big trucks use 40 times the fuel as a passenger car. All China’s big trucks have about half of overall air pollution and 70% of the particulates. Particulate pollution is the main cause of the deaths.
Making 40-80 Gigafactories would require the staffing level of Foxconn. Foxconn make the iPhones and iPads. The production in China for Apple products supplies the world.
Making the factories and supply chain is exactly the kind of things that China excels at. Need to drain a lake or make massive amounts of lithium, then China can do it and will literally level mountains to make it happen.
Batteries for the Grid
Tesla Powerwall batteries and utility scale batteries can be used to modernize China’s powergrid. They would fit in even with China’s pumped hydro.
Problems Fixed
These solutions at scale means China uses 3-4 million barrels per day less oil. This is like doubling domestic oil production. It reduces oil dependence towards 50% foreign. Initially, it will mean more coal usage to supply the electricity.
The electricity will be produced around Mongolia and then sent to the cities via 1.1 megavolt power grid connections. China has ultra-high voltage cross country lines. Those lines can transmit 200GW of power. Building more as needed is not a problem.
The air pollution reduction keeps the middle class, affluent the poor people happy.
Elon Musk becomes a trillionaire and Tesla stock goes up 10X or 20X.
There will be China copycat companies but Tesla will get a huge chunk.
Support for a US technology company without directly forcing technology transfer would be a huge win.
The Chinese companies will have to achieve technology transfer the traditional way by poaching employees and waiting the one-year non-competes to expire.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
How long will Tesla to start out in China? What will be there goal after China. Which countries will be next on thier list?
Tesla doesn’t need to make more money and China can’t help him produce faster: ramping up production just takes time, especially when you want to be involved in every decision, as Musk does.
Or it’s for more clicks.
India has a more advanced military? yes if they get F35 x 300 planes
1/ india uses Japan HS, and they will probably break the HS safety record of japanese system..
2/ india will get expensive HS system without chinese HS competition.
Who would have thought, Elon Musks has been the chief instigator of trade war, complaining about China’s joint venture practices to Washington.
Now they are in bed together.
I think you have a good concept; make an easily accessible and succinct argument to reach the maximum number of people; reserve use of a more detailed approach to provide supporting data and to clarify the finer points. Would it be possible / save you time to use [spoiler] [/spoiler] tags or the equivalent?
I am a big fan of the Oxford comma. It is also, refreshing, to see someone, online, championing the, Shatner comma.
You forgot that not America but China has problem with not breaking the patent rules
This is an attempt at less being more. A logical case and a numerical conclusions that cites references both can have value and can be convincing to different audiences.
The prior post had value but had extra information and statistics. I wanted to clarify the summarizing argument. In this case, I was verbally explaining this to someone and found this description with minimal numbers was more convincing for them. I found that leaving this out made it easier to connect. So I need to communicate more to people where accuracy of numbers is less important then a generalized sense of the situation, directionally correct but a laying out a case with clear logic.
I also was watching some video of a politician making a speech and it was more convincing with less depth.
Having a more flowing message works better.
Ideally I would want this message to reach Elon and those that surround them or decision makers in China to follow this path.
I think it would save lives and clean up the environment.
Also, I think the focus on the problems that each has and the priority ranking of them shows why this should be done.
I also wanted to cleanly state how massively important the trucks are. The trucks are nearly everything.
So this is an evolution to working towards an elevator pitch. Condensing down to a few sentences.
Something that gets to the heart and can be said in 60-90 seconds is the most powerful.
He’s just staying on message, like a politician, I do it myself, Australia has the potential, to make a trillion tonnes, of liquid hydrogen per year, with a quarter of it’s desert, for solar farms.
China lost the high speed rail contract, in india and the 5G contracts, in the West, due to military activity, in the South China Sea and the Indian border. Such a pity, they could build a high speed rail link, through the Himalayas, have Clean Disruption, Belt Road high speed rail, go to the Moon, with Space X and a modified Long March 9, still can.
Dear myself, I also wanted to point out, that the allies have india, Indochina, Japan, Europe, on their side, India’s economy is growing faster than China and India, already has, a more advanced military.
China working closely with Musk on Tesla would also be more open to Starlink internet as long as it respects the great firewall and that would assure it’s success. If China is open to those things then perhaps it’s shipyards will build the giant ocean Spaceport platforms for SpaceX Starship both point to point and orbital.
Your own articles show that it is strategic, lower oil dependency, healthier population, potential for electric tanks. To go with rapidly deployable solar farms, liquid hydrogen, for military aircraft, but the global advantage, is greater than the strategic military threat.
Much the same as high speed rail, on the Belt Road and in China, lower pollution globally, from electric vehicles, powered by solar panels on solar farms. The allied forces, have a huge strategic advantage, in 300 lightning stealth fighter bombers, F/A 35. We Australians, have ordered 72, two are coming in next week, it would take 12 years, for China to match our Network centric warfare.
After the roaring twenties, in the Grand Depression, of the 2030’s, we must hope cheap electricity, transportation and food, from high rise agriculture, vertical farming. Coupled with basic minimum income, Kensian pump priming, of ultra high speed vacuum magnetic levitation, train networks. Will keep the lid on aggressions, with sufficient disposable income, in the era of low maintenance, induction charged, low employment, driverless cars, software, robotic, groundscraper, vertical farming. Solid state, no moving parts, solar power and photoelectric lighting, Japan has already started to build a magnetic levitation, train tunnel network.
The US, uses the worlds most extensive rail network, for freight, it could add ultra high speed passenger rail, as a works projects administration, employment program, in the 2030’s.
Why do you always post several articles, that basically say the same thing?
Electric cars are not any more strategic than cars or smartphones but they are consumer products. They relate to economic strength but so does everything else
Identified Risk: US can and has imposed in the past tech transfer restrictions on US firms selling to identified strategic competitors/enemies.
It is now starting to clamp down on China. EV cars might not be seen by the current Admin as a strategic tech to look into, but it is only a matter of time until ‘a’ US administration does.