ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood believes the whole transportation industry will shift to electric. They have a price target of $4000 for Tesla. They think Tesla will reach that level by 2023.
The $4,000 price target assumes that Tesla evolves from a hardware manufacturer with 19% gross margins to a company generating most of its profits from Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), a business that ARK believes will enjoy 80% gross margins. In the $4,000 scenario, their assumptions are conservative: they incorporate profits only from cars and certain autonomous taxi networks, not from trucks, drones, utility-scale energy storage, or the MaaS opportunity in China.
Tesla and other flobal automobile manufacturers are rushing to develop services that will allow Chinese car owners to rent out their vehicles when they’re not driving them. According to one recent analysis, such services could hire out as many as 2 million cars in 2020, up from roughly 100,000 in 2017. Indeed, there’s a growing case to be made that car-sharing represents the future of transport in China, and China could determine the future of car-sharing.
Elon Musk estimates the autonomous driving feature could arrive as early as the end of 2019. Tesla also intends to operate its own network of driverless cars, taking a cut of each ride that could be as high as 30 percent, in line with current ride-sharing practices.
Ark Invest believes that artificial intelligence, energy storage, robotics, genome sequencing, and blockchain technology are the innovation platforms leading the global economy into what could be the most transformative period in history.
They have a 94-page report on their technology forecasts.
Tesla has its own custom AI hardware and has a lead with batteries.
Tesla has cylindrical lithium-ion batteries.
Editas gene editing is predicting to be proven to fix pediatric blindness by the end of 2019.
3D printing will be used to make planes lighter. Ark predicts lighter and better 3D parts will be 20% of planes parts within five years.
1. Deep Learning –
Is it a larger opportunity than the Internet?
2. Digital Wallets –
Could they spell the end of traditional banks?
3. Cryptocurrencies –
Are we witnessing the rise of an alternative financial system?
4. Battery Cost Tipping Point –
Could EVs become cheaper than comparable gas-powered cars?
5. Autonomous Taxi Networks –
Will they become the most valuable investment opportunity in public equity markets?
6. Next Generation DNA Sequencing –
Could it unlock the code to life, disease, and death?
7. CRISPR For Human Therapeutics –
Will health care become cheaper and curative?
8. Collaborative Robots –
Will robots be your next co-worker?
9. 3D Printing for End-Use Parts –
Will manufacturing ever be the same?
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.