World GDP Forecasts for 2030

Standard Chartered forecasts the top 10 countries in the world by purchasing power parity GDP in 2030.

1. China: $64.2 trillion
2. India: $46.3 trillion
3. US: $31 trillion
4. Indonesia: $10.1 trillion
5. Turkey: $9.1 trillion
6. Brazil: $8.6 trillion
7. Egypt: $8.2 trillion
8. Russia: $7.9 trillion
9. Japan: $7.2 trillion
10. Germany: $6.9 trillion

The China, US, Japan and Germany forecasts seem somewhat reasonable.

I do not see how most of the Standard Chartered forecast happens. Standard Chartered has a massive acceleration in GDP growth for India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Egypt and Russia.

Nextbigfuture GDP PPP 2030 Forecast

In 2030, the world will have about 8.56 billion and Asia will have nearly 5 billion people.

Asian countries are still maintaining GDP growth of 4-8% depending upon the country. This is 1 to 5% faster annual growth than the rest of the world.

On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, Asia will have 42% of the world economy next year.

Purchasing Power Parity Projection

China and India dominate with around 60-66% of the population and 60-70% of purchasing power parity GDP. Below are extrapolations of the IMF purchasing power parity projections that take the forecasted change from 2019 to 2023 and run them to 2031.

Exchange rate GDP projection

China and India dominate with around 56-65% of nominal GDP. Below are extrapolations of the IMF nominal GDP projections that take the forecasted change from 2019 to 2023 and run them to 2031.

Nextbigfuture Can Project the Following PPP GDP for 2030

Nextbigfuture admits that China could easily underperform at $50 trillion, India at $20-25 trillion and Indonesia at $6-7 trillion. Russia can have oil and other problems and end up at $4-5 trillion.

1. China: $63 trillion
2. India $33 trillion
3. US: $31 trillion
4. Indonesia: $8.5 trillion
5. Japan: $7.6 trillion
6. Germany: $6.9 trillion
7. Russia: $6.0 trillion
8. Brazil: $5.2 trillion
9. UK: $4.2 trillion
10. France: $4.1 trillion
11. Mexico: $4.0 trillion
12. Turkey: $3.7 trillion
13. South Korea: $3.3 trillion
14. Italy: $3.1 trillion
Egypt: $2.6 trillion

The October 2019 IMF Economic Outlook has Russia recovering to about 1 to 2% GDP growth. Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey are in the 0 to 3% GDP growth range. I do not see a stimulus or factor which would accelerate their growth. Egypt is forecasted to be 5-6% GDP growth through 2023.

There will be a new Jan 21, 2019 IMF Economic Outlook.

By 2030, 5.4 billion people will be middle-class, up from 3 billion in 2015, with Asia’s share of that group widening from 46 percent to 65 percent, according to Standard Chartered and the Brookings Institution. The size of the middle class in the U.S. and Europe is expected to be roughly stable.

Two-thirds of the world population will live in cities by 2030, up from 52 percent in 2010, the study says, citing the United Nations.

Trade War is Providing More Momentum to the Belt and Road Initiative

China’s trade with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.4% in 2017, accounting for over a third of the country’s total trade. In the past five years, China’s direct investment in Belt and Road has exceeded USD70 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2% year-on-year.

Belt and Road presence has been felt even more by its partner countries. The continued expansion of South-South trade corridors and rising investment in regional connectivity along B&R routes are key antidotes to US-China trade uncertainty. China could gain more allies and reduce its dependency on the US via the Belt and Road.

14 thoughts on “World GDP Forecasts for 2030”

  1. egypt has an averge age of 25 maybe itll become 30 in the next 10 years. while japan will have the averge age of around 50. its itll likely become less productive

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  2. Im sorry to disappoint you but as nominal GDP grows the gap between nominal and PPP gap tends to decrease. these projections are absolutely unrealistic and will definitely not correspond to reality in ten years, as living costs will skyrocket in china and india due to rising wages (which are the direct consequence of economic growth). China’s GDP will probably never reach 50 trillion 2020 dollars. Never. That would mean a 100 percent GDP growth with no effect on living costs, which is low-key impossible. before the country even gets close to such an admirable figure, it will go through a crippling demographic crisis and living costs will rise exponentially, so it will probably enter a period of economic stagnation and long term recession (as experienced by western European countries and Japan for instance)

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  3. Nothing of the sort.

    That’s just exchange rates. You could say Canada’s artificially bloated exchange rate makes its economy appear bloated, or you could say, Rouble’s undervaluation makes Russian economy smaller.

    Russia remains far and away a bigger economy than South Korea or Canada, two countries that Western policymakers often point to for comparisons with Russia.

    All in vain.

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  4. Interesting that Standard Charter predicts Turkey will become more productive than Germany on a Per capita basis, and Egypt will become more productive than Japan despite having a lower population by 2030 /s

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  5. It’s unlikely that old-China can sustain its performance. India will close the gap. Indonesia doesn’t have the infrastructure and human development comparable to industrialised Turkey, which is strategically positioned at the edge of Europe Asia and Africa. Probably middle east wars will not last 200 more years 🙂

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  6. Literally nothing about Canada? Its currently the 10th/11th largest economy. Did it just fall off the map? Its economy is currently larger than Russia. It arguably has more potential than Russia at this point.

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  7. The US medical, military , college and other activities are highly inflated compared to most other nations ! So this goes for America also!

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  8. Russia’s Economy PPP is already over $4 trillion or around $30,000 per capita add another $10,000 for black market activities PPP and presently the true per capita income is close to $40,000 in Russia presently ! Russia is no Joke. China PPP is approaching $30 trillion presently and set to rise further while the EU is around $23 Trillion PPP dollars America only makes 14% of global PPP GDP and this is set to decline below 10% in the near future get over it!

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  9. GDP PPP is highly flawed (no surprise).

    For example if the GDP of country B is half that of country A, but the cost of living is also half as much, PPP-adjusted GDP would be equal. So it skews the size of an economy. The idea is instead it’s based on ‘purchasing power’ relative to the ‘costs’ in each country, it sounds reasonable in theory, but in reality the basket of goods and services used in each country is different. Country B might have a higher proportion of food and other very basic items in the basket, versus country A that instead includes more housing costs, education costs and other high end expenditures in their basket. That doesn’t mean country B is comparable (it can be near impossible to compare). Country A for all purposes could be much wealthier, with their citizens having much higher living standards, not to mention having access to much higher end resources that country B doesn’t even have access to, yet the PPP could in theory suggest both are equal in ‘purchasing power parity’ terms (when obviously we know that isn’t true, as it’s being skewed and is not even comparable).

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  10. Purchasing power parity is different from nominal GDP. So it makes sense for these numbers, though the nominal gdp for most of these countries will be very less than the PPP numbers

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