Standard Chartered forecasts the top 10 countries in the world by purchasing power parity GDP in 2030.
1. China: $64.2 trillion
2. India: $46.3 trillion
3. US: $31 trillion
4. Indonesia: $10.1 trillion
5. Turkey: $9.1 trillion
6. Brazil: $8.6 trillion
7. Egypt: $8.2 trillion
8. Russia: $7.9 trillion
9. Japan: $7.2 trillion
10. Germany: $6.9 trillion
The China, US, Japan and Germany forecasts seem somewhat reasonable.
I do not see how most of the Standard Chartered forecast happens. Standard Chartered has a massive acceleration in GDP growth for India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Egypt and Russia.
Nextbigfuture GDP PPP 2030 Forecast
In 2030, the world will have about 8.56 billion and Asia will have nearly 5 billion people.
Asian countries are still maintaining GDP growth of 4-8% depending upon the country. This is 1 to 5% faster annual growth than the rest of the world.
On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, Asia will have 42% of the world economy next year.
Purchasing Power Parity Projection
China and India dominate with around 60-66% of the population and 60-70% of purchasing power parity GDP. Below are extrapolations of the IMF purchasing power parity projections that take the forecasted change from 2019 to 2023 and run them to 2031.
Exchange rate GDP projection
China and India dominate with around 56-65% of nominal GDP. Below are extrapolations of the IMF nominal GDP projections that take the forecasted change from 2019 to 2023 and run them to 2031.
Nextbigfuture Can Project the Following PPP GDP for 2030
Nextbigfuture admits that China could easily underperform at $50 trillion, India at $20-25 trillion and Indonesia at $6-7 trillion. Russia can have oil and other problems and end up at $4-5 trillion.
1. China: $63 trillion
2. India $33 trillion
3. US: $31 trillion
4. Indonesia: $8.5 trillion
5. Japan: $7.6 trillion
6. Germany: $6.9 trillion
7. Russia: $6.0 trillion
8. Brazil: $5.2 trillion
9. UK: $4.2 trillion
10. France: $4.1 trillion
11. Mexico: $4.0 trillion
12. Turkey: $3.7 trillion
13. South Korea: $3.3 trillion
14. Italy: $3.1 trillion
Egypt: $2.6 trillion
The October 2019 IMF Economic Outlook has Russia recovering to about 1 to 2% GDP growth. Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey are in the 0 to 3% GDP growth range. I do not see a stimulus or factor which would accelerate their growth. Egypt is forecasted to be 5-6% GDP growth through 2023.
There will be a new Jan 21, 2019 IMF Economic Outlook.
By 2030, 5.4 billion people will be middle-class, up from 3 billion in 2015, with Asia’s share of that group widening from 46 percent to 65 percent, according to Standard Chartered and the Brookings Institution. The size of the middle class in the U.S. and Europe is expected to be roughly stable.
Two-thirds of the world population will live in cities by 2030, up from 52 percent in 2010, the study says, citing the United Nations.
Trade War is Providing More Momentum to the Belt and Road Initiative
China’s trade with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.4% in 2017, accounting for over a third of the country’s total trade. In the past five years, China’s direct investment in Belt and Road has exceeded USD70 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2% year-on-year.
Belt and Road presence has been felt even more by its partner countries. The continued expansion of South-South trade corridors and rising investment in regional connectivity along B&R routes are key antidotes to US-China trade uncertainty. China could gain more allies and reduce its dependency on the US via the Belt and Road.