There are fears that the US will have a hot civil war. There is currently what has been described as a cold civil war. This is where we have entrenched more political elites and media using social media, politics and legal means to fight each other.
Brian Wang of Nextbigfuture talked with Peter Boyle on 710 KNUS (Denver Radio and a podcst) on the topic of the Cold Civil War.
There is the question of will the cold civil war shift to actual mass violence. Will it become a hot civil war?
This article will consider
What is the best method to predict the outcome of conflict situations?
How can we minimize the chance of civil wars?
Game Theory Accuracy at Political Predictions
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a Stanford Professor who has successfully applied game theory to predict political events.
When considering a political situation you need to take the following steps.
1. Who cares? Analyze the situation to know who all of the involved groups.
2. Why does each group want?
Rational Choice theory means people usually do what they believe is in their best interests (from their own point of view).
3. What options or alternatives could be acceptable?
4. How bad does each group want their goal and how much power do they have to get it?
5. Play out the interaction of the groups.
* Incomplete information leads to incomplete mathematical precision and accuracy. Your analysis is significantly mistaken about groups and their power or misses entire groups.
* Analysis is wrong about the motivations
* the 90+% accuracy is likely inflated by only using it where there is confidence in the completeness of the data gathered
Hot Civil War
Who are the main groups in the USA at this time.
The groups are
Trump and his supporters
Socialist-wing of Democrats
Enabling groups are the media (cable news, internet, and alternative media).
Currently, it seems that all of the groups want money and power within the current system and some want to change the rules of the current system. Some of the socialists claim to be prioritizing changing the rules of the system, while still wanting power and influence.
The media wants influence, money, and power.
Where has there been mass protest and violence?
France currently has persistent Yellow-jacket demonstrations with many thousands in the streets and a lot of property damage. The US could have an Occupy wall street 2.0 at a similar or larger scale.
Existing US groups could go more extreme and more violent if they feel that their issues are not being heard and they are being pushed out of the regular political process.
The angry arguments can both increase emotions and conflict but can also be a safety valve for venting pressures.
There has been personal self-destruction with the drug problem. Men lose their jobs and get depressed and then feel ignored and feel the loss of their identity. This is leading to suicide and drug abuse.
There is currently a small percentage of them that take weapons and shoot up a mall or workplace.
It does not seem that there would be a mass taking up of arms even if Trump was impeached or if there were criminal charges and imprisonment of opponents based upon investigations. It seems the response would be demonstrations and then political and legal revenge and payback.
All sides currently believe they can get results in the existing system.
The fourth step in the game theory analysis was how bad do people want it? So far it has been twitter and social mobs and far fewer real mobs.
There are still one million police in the USA and unemployment is still very low. Most people still are able to transition to other jobs. The number of people actively involved and committed to violent groups is low.
If there was armed conflict, the Republicans have about three times the number of firearms as the Democrats.
Potential Motivation for More Unrest
Despite the cold civil war media and political games, the technological and societally displaced need to be aware of and believe in better choices. 6 million truck drivers, taxi drivers and delivery people will lose their jobs. Millions of retail jobs will go away. There are white collar jobs at risk as well.
If there was no off-ramp for millions of jobless to air grievances and get some kind of perceive viable path to fixing their lives then unrest and problems would grow.
A million unemployed truckers occupying all of our cities with trucks seems to be something that could happen around 2025-2030.
How can we minimize the chance of civil wars? We need to create a belief in better options.
Written By Brian Wang. Nextbigfuture.com