HIV drugs turned what was a death sentence within about 5 years into a chronic condition where treated people have almost the same lifespan as those who are not infected.
Currently, HIV drugs cost $75 in Africa and $39,000 in the U.S.
The distribution of treatment and costs could represent what might happen with the emergence of effective anti-aging or age-reversal treatments. HIV drugs also had a similar improvement on lifespan for its patients to what we can expect for real antiaging damage repair treatments. HIV drugs boost lifespans by about thirty years and antiaging treatments in the 2030-2050s could provide a similar 30 year boost to human lifespans.
Over ten to twenty years the first wave of anti-aging and age reversal treatments could emerge. If they were largely based upon gene therapies or drugs then they would be administered via injections.
It took about seven years for the drugs to get developed and widely distributed in developing countries. This was from 1995-2002. The initial drugs were also distributed in Africa and reached about 1 million people by 2005 and is now about half of the infected population.
Globally 38 million people have HIV. This about 0.5% of the world population. There is also an infection that is ten times higher in parts of Africa versus the developed world. There will be one billion seniors in the world by 2020. There would be 26 times more people treated for antiaging who are seniors than those with HIV.
HIV Drugs Saved the Economies of Some Hard Hit African Countries
The HIV drugs prevented deaths for people mainly in their 20-40s into deaths in their 60s or 70s.
HIV infections are about 0.5% of the world population. The number of people that would need to be treated for antiaging is 200 times larger.
Some countries in Africa have a 20% HIV infection rate. The economic and lifespan recovery that they experienced would be about 5 to ten times less the potential boom of effective anti-aging treatments for seniors and the rest of the population.
Antiaging drugs and gene therapy that increase life and health by 30-40 years could mean deaths in 70-90s become deaths in the 110-130s.
1-2 million lives per year are saved with HIV drugs and this is increasing. Thirty-year anti-aging or age reversal boost would be forty times bigger in terms of global deaths avoided and as impactful on an individual basis.
A 35-year boost would potentially double the productive adult years from 16 to 65 to 16 to 110.
There could be a 1-3% annual boost in GDP as this is rolled out to each country. 1% of the people do not die and rejuvenation would boost the productivity and health of those who are treated. It would be a massive boost to countries with larger senior populations if the treatments worked on seniors.
Japan and European countries with large senior populations would see the greatest economic benefit.
If Antiaging Made Elderly Like Middle Aged
Assuming a developed country could rollout treatment to seniors over five years then Japan would see a 7% per year GDP boost for five years and Germany and some European countries would see 5% per year GDP boosts for five years. If it took ten years then the initial GDP boost would be half that amount. There would be an ongoing boost of 1% GDP growth boost as people that were expected to get sick and die did not.
Japan has 75 million people of working age (16-64) and 40 million who are 65 or older. Only about 60% of the working age people are working. Effective rejuvenation could add 24 million people back into the workforce.
The population pyramids now and in 2050 are already different. People are already expected to live 5 years longer in 2050 in the developed countries. There is already a five-year difference in life expectancy between the US and Japan. There is a 20 to 30-year life expectancy difference between some African countries and the developed countries.
SOURCES- Our World in Data, Population Pyramid, Federal Reserve Economic Research
Written By Brian Wang
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.