India will pass China’s population level in 2020 or 2021. China had 7 million few babies in 2018 than expected. China only had 15.2 million babies in 2018 versus an expectation of 21-23 million. The number of babies born China in 2019 and 2020 will be even less than in 2018. Without trillions per year in programs, China will have 30-40% less national economy by 2060.
A 30% decline in China’s workforce would be like $4.5 trillion today and would be about $10-20 trillion in 2050.
China will have to re-embrace and fully fund socialist support programs to reverse the baby bust.
China’s government will need to roll out a lot more daycare facilities, free education, major subsidies (aka bribes) for couples to have another child and payment for all fertility treatments including IVR. Some cities and regional governments are starting some subsidies and pro-child support, but the programs are far short of what is needed.
Around 2060, India will have about 1.7 to 1.8 billion people and China will have 1.1 to 1.2 billion people.
China Will Need to Spend Free-Education and Family Healthcare Costing Trillions per Year
“The number of newborns will continue plunging even after the country completely revoked its birth policy, unless the Chinese leadership made great efforts to boost births such as lowering the cost of education significantly,” said Huang Wenzheng, co-founder of Cnpop.org, a non-profit organization analyzing China’s population and birth policies.
SOURCES- Liaoning Plan, insafbulletin, South China Morning Post
Written By Brian Wang