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Full US-China Trade Deal is Close

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U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products.

The speed of the tariff removal is still be negotiated. China is offering to lower tariffs on U.S. farm, chemical, auto and other products, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the situation.

China is pledging to speed up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on auto ventures, and to reduce tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current rate of 15 percent.

A US-China Trade summit could happen around March 27.

SOURCES- Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg

Written By Brian Wang

36 thoughts on “Full US-China Trade Deal is Close”

  1. what US to lose with any type of deal with China>US to pay just $, which is its own currency or paper to print and deliver or just pass a credit entry in its own bank and that all.

  3. Goood question!

    Ask any more of those, and you will be attacked here by the Musk Fluffers tho. Fair warning!

  5. No. I love what Trump does (mostly).

    And Pence will not do it. He’s too much an establishment eGOP guy. He also has less charisma than Shrillary did.

  6. YOU were the one who said and I quote “the us is at 2% in 2019”. 2018 figures are NOT 2019, and NO one is saying that 2018 was that low. The unrevised numbers are 2.9% as of right now for 2018. So not sure where you get 2% for 2018, even through that is NOT what YOU wrote. Period. Dot.

  7. You can attempt to believe whatever you want to believe. “Abstract
    China’s national accounts are based on data collected by local governments. However, since local governments are rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, they have an incentive to skew local statistics. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adjusts the data provided by local governments to calculate GDP at the national level. The adjustments made by the NBS average 5% of GDP since the mid-2000s. On the production side, the discrepancy between local and aggregate GDP is entirely driven by the gap between local and national estimates of industrial output. On the expenditure side, the gap is in investment. Local statistics increasingly misrepresent the true numbers after 2008, but there was no corresponding change in the adjustment made by the NBS. Using publicly available data, we provide revised estimates of local and national GDP by re-estimating output of industrial, construction, wholesale and retail firms using data on value-added taxes. We also use several local economic indicators that are less likely to be manipulated by local governments to estimate local and aggregate GDP. The estimates also suggest that the adjustments by the NBS were insufficient after 2008. Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower.”.  https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/upload

  14. Disagree about the political suicide. The vast majority of POTUS’ will be creatures of the Globalists. The EO will be titled ‘Save The Little Kids EO’ and mostly be about forbidding federal law enforcement from shutting down lemon aid stands operated by kids. In the last paragraph, there will be text that to stop the enforcement mechanism regarding the trade agreements with China.

    The EO will be issued in the middle of a Friday night right before a Fourth of July weekend, too. In a non-election year.

  15. Funny Crystal ball you have there, since the 1st quarter report is not out yet. Also exactly HOW reliable has been the Federal Reserve or CBO numbers been? About as reliable as the Chinese numbers but in the opposite direction. How much have we beat the CBO projections for GDP growth from the tax cuts? The tax cuts are officially paying for themselves for the entire 10 year period now. The reason the deficit grew was the Bipartisan Budget Act spending increase because there was no tax increases of tax shifting involved in either H.R. 1 or the Bipartisan Budget Act.

  16. That is why the enforcement mechanism are set up to be automatic. A President will have to write an EO to STOP enforcement before it kicks in and that will be political suicide.

  17. They are looking at the dollar amount and not as a percentage of economic activity. I use that term since imports are subtracted from GDP growth numbers. Cutting imports is a cheap way of growing the economy regardless of how you do it, due to substitution.

  18. Well since everyone else except for India and Ireland will be consuming less, why exactly should we be allowing access to our market when their markets are going to be shrinking for the next couple of decades?

  21. True, but then the U.S. has an idiotic tax system currently that favors foreign companies and imports over domestic production. If they wanted it would be more than possible to implement a licensing and tax that would eliminate the trade deficit as fast as we want. But our current tax system was structured the way it is on purpose to encourage those imports. It was part of the Bretton Woods cold war bribe.

  22. China NEEDS this trade war really bad. Lots of layoffs in their export sector (which is still YUUUGGGEEE).

    And now, they seem to be going into a full Depressionary mode on the consumption side given the utter collapse in Chinese car sales. Wasn’t China supposed to be transitioning into a consumption-led economy?

    A new deflationary tide is rising amid the battleground that is China’s auto industry, where manufacturers and dealers are scrambling to try and find a solution to tumbling demand, and while many have resorted to generous incentives and loan offers for consumers to regain market shares, Bloomberg reports  that so far none of the measures have succeeded in stimulating the moribund local car markets.

    Incentives and reductions totaling more than 10% of the sticker price are now common, while interest free loans are also being offered to try and lure car buyers to showrooms, especially outside of China’s major cities. For now, however, buyers still aren’t taking the bait and car sales continue to decline this year in China, after their first annual drop in more than two decades.

    Making matters worse, amid the slowdown of the world’s second largest economy consumers are starting to do away with big purchases in general.. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-04/deflationary-red-alert-chinese-car-dealers-are-slashing-prices-and-its-not-helping

  23. No need. 3% is enough to stay number one superpower indefinitely.  It is a simple math really and fundamental reasons Chinese economy will only grow slower and slower.

  24. Trade deficit will be gradually gone with increasing US energy production and oil and gas exports.

  26. Truth is the Democrats are going to ride the ‘Dismantle The Cold War Trade Order’ just as much as Trump has. Only they will do it more quietly and lie in public that is what is happening. If by some miracle Bernie is in the WH tho, he’ll be more like Trump. Only way to pay for Socialism is for high rate VAT just like in Europe, and that will kill whatever advantage Chinese imports have since VATs can be levied against imports while deducted from exports.

  27. After that America will have no more excuse for its huge trade deficits

    What ‘huge’ trade deficits?

    Trade in goods is a small percentage of American GDP. And half of it is with NAFTA partners.

    This is why the naysayers constantly refer to the trade deficit figures in absolute dollar terms, which look scary to low-information Joe Sixpac voter and not the percentage of GDP, which clearly show it is peanuts.

    (Trump plays this absolute dollar scare game too, but he is in it to cut China off at that gonads geostrategically even though he claims it is to bring jobs back to America…which some have come back)

    And since we are a net oil exporter now, the main trade dependency that only really mattered doesn’t anymore. Instead, it matters to other nations. So the next time the ME blows up, Americans won’t go to die in the sand to secure European, Japanese, Indian, South Korean and Chinese oil supply lines. They will be on their own.

  28. 3.0%. The 2.9% figure (your 2.3% is flat out bogus, Luca) was cherry picked to make sure Trump didn’t look good. In reality, that 3.0% figure will be revised upward, as all GDP growth figures have in the Trump Era.

  29. They will come up with non-tariff barriers just like the South Koreans and Japanese did. In fact, they will probably outright steal those very same policies the Koreans and Japanese came up with..especially for car imports.

    And they won’t protect IP. Forget the argument that ‘But, but the Chinese need pro-IP legal rights to protect their own industries now!” because Xi is not about furthering property rights. Indeed, property rights protection legal advances in China are probably going to take a reversal, if anything. Let alone will they stop the pillaging of American IP.

    They’ll probably take the food, tho.

  31. Yeah, I am sure the farmers in the mid-west want slober all over his pecker (and not the one at the National Enquirer) for that victory.

  32. After that America will have no more excuse for its huge trade deficits. It will have to realize that it has become too much of a financial and consumption economy and start doing what other countries do, invest in its industries.

  34. The problem for China, is all it does at MOST is lift the 10% tariffs until the inevitably cheat, unless the Democrats win or someone manages to defeat Pence in the 2024 primaries. The steel and aluminum tariffs will remain in place as will the auto tariffs that will shortly be imposed. Trump is NOT going to give China a special deal, especially after he killed any agreement based upon the use of MOU’s, which is how China HAD planned to get around actually complying, since MOU’s do NOT have the force of a true trade agreement and are not enforceable under the WTO rulings. Not that the WTO and the GATT agreements matter anymore, unless the Democrats manage to somehow impeach trump before June, 2020.

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