Enterprise Products Partners is a midstream oil and gas company with a $64 billion market valuation. They have a forecast of US oil and gas by region from now to 2025.
By 2025, Texas oil production will double and US and gas production will increase by around 50%.
They forecast that Texas will surpass 10 million barrels per day of crude oil production by 2025 from the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins. This is up from 5 million barrels per day today.
The US will increase from 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to 17 million barrels per day in 2025.
The US will increase natural gas liquids from 5.5 million barrels per day today to 8.5 million barrels per day to 2025.
The US will increase dry natural gas from 88 billion cubic feet per day to 114 billion cubic feet per day.
The US will export a lot of oil and NGL to Asia.
Even with more electric cars there will is projected to solid growth using oil for plastics.
SOURCES : Enterprise Products Partners
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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They already kind of are; it isn’t easy to charge up at a rental with no garage.
That would make it more so yes but based on used EV prices it doesn’t look like it will be a problem.
Demand for oil is growing at about 1.25% per year. So at an average vehicle age of 15 years, about when 18.75% of new vehicle sales (light AND heavy) are EV.
Falling oil prices due to lower demand from EVs will then cause ICE vehicles to become relatively more attractive again, though.
I predict a doubling in EV sales every 2 years and then leveling off when it hits that point. So call it about 8 more years (2027) when over leveraged oil companies start looking to a future of bankruptcy, taking some supply off the table.
A worldwide recession will delay things due to collapse of new vehicle demand.
In a scene with exploding supply you should be short on all of those sectors….that you didn’t immediately grasp that is a red flag on your energy sector investing chops. No offense intended.
Midstream used to be a possible play, but pipelines have a 25 year timeframe for investment but shale wells are like 18 months; oil wells used to match that 25 year timeframe, but is long past. That’s a huge mismatch in timeframes = massive risk. Also, a midstream investment that expected to get 25% on natgas transport when the natgas price drops 50%, there’s a decent chance your pipeline just became uneconomic = big writeoffs. Stock goes down…
Most permian companies like Apache Energy ( APA ) have 10 year bonds and are levered like 100%. That’s still a big mismatch. Too much risk.
There are only minefields here IMO. Avoid avoid avoid.
IMO just find a near zero fee SP500 fund. That’s Warren Buffets (great) advice. If you have debt running at 7% or more, pay that down first.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/101415/4-best-sp-500-index-funds.asp
Why stop now when the defense contractors have been having such fun?
Compared to just shipping the trash off to China for ‘recycling’, it wasn’t.
But yes, cheaper power will make it even more compelling.
Also, the systems built so far produce a hydrocarbon fuel as a byproduct, which it can then burn in a generator on site to limit the amount of electricity needed from the grid.
I’ve always thought plasma recycling was a worthy endeavor, even as a money loser. maybe when power is 2c a kwh.
Europe will have to contend with this more than the US. they currently burn their plastic waste for heat…not very green if you ask me..
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How about a plasma torch instead?
And so if the ME blows up, it is in America’s best interest to let it do so. It certainly isn’t in its interests to go in to put the fire out. Total 180 geopolitical turnaround from the World As We Grew Up In.
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this is a bit controversial but I’d say burning it is probably the less damaging solution until we have 99%+ of plastic capture and re-use. I think that will not come along until we’ve found a proper enzyme for digesting plastic back into monomers. at that point its 100% recyclable rather than diminishing quality as it is now.
global fleet is still growing by about 40m vehicles per year. So we need to hit about 40m ev sales per year to start shrinking the ice fleet. It will happen fast but oil still has a good ten year run ahead before EVs start to seriously destroy demand.
I wonder if in 5-10 years people will be pointing at electric cars as an example of “inequality”. Batteries seem to be a limiting factor in expansion of sales, so if demand exceeds production, prices will remain high, so “only the richer 5-10%” will be able to afford them and the associated very cheap electric ‘fueling’.
As of last year, electric vehicles (plug-ins and hybrid) were 2% of the world auto market. Since the average life of autos is around 20 years, that amounts to 0.1% of the fleet converted in that year. World auto fleet is still growing, both from population growth and developing countries.
The question is when will electric vehicle production exceed total auto fleet growth. At that point you are replacing internal combustion vehicles, and their petroleum demand should go down.
Electric trucks have different usage profiles. Ones like garbage collection and buses drive short routes with frequent stops. They have less need for battery capacity and benefit from regenerative braking. So you expect them to convert before long-haul trucks. On the other hand, some experiments in “electric roads” are ongoing – overhead wires or buried wires or induction chargers. Those would relieve long-haul vehicles from needing massive batteries.
This is not the right website to be asking for investment advice. We talk about science and technology here, not investments.
Any reputable investment advisor would ask about your circumstances and goals before making recommendations. A fresh out of college new hire has totally different needs than a retired widow, both for time horizon and risk tolerance.
Which companies would people here recommend to invest in?
In (Texas) oil, natgas, transport, refining and LNG production.
When do we think this will be impacted by the electrification of traffic? I would expect some effect by 2025. It looks like predicting landline telephones in 1995 for the next 30 years based on history data.
Mexican plastic product manufacturers obtain most of their raw material supplies from Texas because it’s cheaper than domestic sources.
Would rather any petroleum usage is directed towards the manufacturing of durable goods, which of course can be recycled at the end of life, versus burning it exactly ONCE AND ONLY ONCE, and dealing with the pollution after effects.
Assuming President Ocaisio-Cortez doesn’t get her way of course.
I wince to support the hippie in this argument, but an all electric car, even if the entire car is made from plastics, is still going to use 90% less oil over its lifetime than a petrol vehicle*.
Unless you are doing something nuts like recharging the battery from a diesel generator of course.
And “we will need 90% less oil” and “we won’t need oil” are close enough for any casual comment to give him a pass. At that usage you can do it all with soybean oil as your base.
*All plastic car? Let’s be generous and give it 1000 kg of polymers. That’s still the same level of oil use as filling the car with 50 liters of fuel 20 times. So maybe a year or two of oil usage.
Had a very left-leaning friend years ago. He had a Prius when they were new and would say “in the future we won’t need oil” and I would point out that his dash board and most of his car interior were made of plastic which comes from oil.
We aren’t friends anymore.
19 mil barrels per day by 2025 is possible but a stretch.
Texas is going to dominate the world energy market.
The reality has always proven most predictions on US oil production as too pessimistic. I predict 18
to 19mil of barrel per day by 2025.