The IEA (International Energy Agency) has forecasted that not only will the US remain energy independent, but that the US will be competing with Saudi Arabia and Russia as the World’s biggest oil exporter. The US will be producing far more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia and supplying its own huge oil need but have excess oil for export.
Gross US oil exports will be in the 8 million barrel per day range by 2021-2024. The US will also be exporting liquid natural gas.
The United States to provide 70% of the increase in global oil supply over next five years, with Iraq, Brazil, Norway & Guyana other major contributors.
This will be driven by the second wave of US shale oil.
The power of Shale Oil 2.0 to increase oil production means the US can provide growing world demand and gives the US an economic win if it squeezes Iran out as an oil supply competitor on a longterm basis.
This development also means that geopolitical analysts who talked about the US losing economic motivation to be a global superpower are wrong. Peter Zeihan and others have talked about the US retreating to isolationism. The argument was that the US would not need to import oil so the US would not need to police the Middle East or police the oceans for world trade.
The US as a top world oil and gas exporter will remain motivated to police the world and keep world trade flowing in order to get its oil and gas to China and India and Asia.
SOURCES- IEA Oil 2019, Nextbigfuture analysis
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com