Cuba, Venezuela and Iran Oil Problems Under US Sanctions

US Crude oil production has been at 12.1 to 12.3 million barrels per day for the last few weeks. This is 2.4 million barrels per day more than Saudi Arabia. US crude oil production has been at abou the level of Saudi Arabia and Iran combined.

Iran posted OPEC’s biggest supply drop in April. Iran’s production dropped 150,000 bpd. Venezuela, supply fell by 100,000 bpd due to U.S. sanctions and a long-term decline in production.

Iran dropped 154,000 bpd to 2.554 million bpd in April. Iraq dropped 113,000 bpd to 4.63 million bpd. Saudi Arabia had 45,000 bpd less oil in April at 9.742 million bpd.

Venezuela had a slight increase of 28,000 bpd to 768,000 bpd in April. In 2018, Venezuela averaged was 1.34 million bpd.

EIA predicts global oil demand would average 100.4 million bpd in 2019. This will be first full year over 100 million bpd.

EIA forecasts that crude oil production in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will average 30.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, down by 1.7 million b/d from 2018. In 2020, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 million b/d to an average of 29.8 million b/d. Production in Venezuela and Iran account for most of the OPEC output declines in 2019 and in 2020.

OPEC pumped 30.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2019 down 90,000 bpd from March and the lowest OPEC total since 2015.

Cuba Rationing Food and Energy Because of US Venezuela Sanctions

Cuba received 103,226 bpd of oil from Venezuela in the first half of 2015.

“Cuba needs at least 70,000 bpd from Venezuela to cover its energy deficit and avoid deeper rationing. A larger or total loss of the Venezuelan supply would have a high political and financial cost for Cuba,” said Jorge Pinon, a Cuban energy expert at the University of Texas in Austin.

Cuba was sent an average of 72,350 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products in the first half of 2017.

In 2019, Venezuela’s shipments of crude for Cuba’s refineries dropped 21 percent to 42,310 bpd.

Cuba would also resell the discounted Venezuela oil to raise the $2 billion in hard currency that Cuba needed to import two thirds of their food supply.

Written By Brian Wang,

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