Tesla’s Future is Ten Times Better If They Pull Off Self-driving

Citigroup and Goldman Sachs underwriting Tesla raise over $2 billion in funding. They held an investor call on Thursday, where CEO Elon Musk and CFO Zach Kirkhorn answered questions about their plans.

Telsa has increased its fund raising to $2.7 billion from $2 billion.

Musk confidently told investors on the call that autonomous driving will transform Tesla into a company with a $500 billion market cap. Tesla is at about $42 billion in valuation. Elon Said Tesla cars will increase in value as self-driving capabilities are added via software, and will be worth up to $250,000 within three years.

Nextbigfuture Coverage of Tesla Autonomy Days

Tesla held its Autonomy Investor Day two weeks ago. They revealed the Full Self Driving Computer and going over all of the technical details. Tesla created customized hardware only for the purpose of a full self-driving computer and they are creating software specifically to maximize that custom hardware.

Elon Musk indicates that later in the presentation and demos that they will show why LIDAR is the wrong solution for full self-driving. He indicates that LIDAR adds costs and complexity that is not needed and does not help.

Elon talked about the importance of keeping the power low and have good heat dissipation.

The FSD system handles 21 times the frames per second to 2300 frames per second versus 110 for the previous Tesla Hardware version 2.5. The system would be 7 times the frames per second of the Nvidia Xavier drive system. All Tesla’s being produced right now are using the new system. Tesla switched over on the S and X one month ago and Model 3 changed 10 days ago.

Full Self Driving Chip and the System

The FSD will fit behind the glove box and will not take up half of the trunk.

Everything is redundant with the system. Cameras or computers could fail and the system will keep working.

The chip is half the size of a GPU and has 72 teraOps per second (trillion operations) of performance.

Tesla Described How the Self-driving Software Was Being Improved

Tesla is able to use the software in customer cards to teach them how to drive in unusual situations.

Tesla Robotaxi Master Plan Details

Elon described costs and details of the master plan for a robotaxi fleet and service at Autonomy Day. Many are criticizing the full self-driving plan and do not believe it will be achieved or will be far, far later. The future of Tesla and the world will be massively impacted if this master plan succeeds or if it does not.

If it succeeds then Tesla makes billions. 1 million robotaxis making $30,000 per car per year for owners and similar amounts for Tesla would be $30 billion per year.

If would also mean about 50 billion robotaxi miles per year within a couple of years of successful full serlf-driving. Uber provided 26 billion miles of ridesharing in 2018.

In the USA, 3.22 trillion miles are driven on roads and there is about 12 trillion miles driven in the world.

Tesla makes their in-house chip for full self-driving. In 2020, they expect to have 1 million cars on the road with the hardware necessary for full self-driving and which could become robotaxis. They believe they will have the most profitable autonomous taxi on the market. Uber and Lyft lose a lot of money on ridesharing. Elon Musk says that a robotaxi using a full self-driving taxi will only cost 18 cents per mile.

The average Tesla car is parked for 22 hours per day. In 2020, owners will be able to use the Tesla app to their car to pick up and drop off passengers autonomously, earning an estimated 65 cents per mile in fares.

By Tesla’s estimates, owners might be able to earn $30,000 in gross revenue from their cars per year. This would be more than $300,000 in revenue over the 11-year lifespan of an average car.

Elon is saying Tesla cars will last 1 million miles. Tesla owners would need to give nearly 500,000 miles or ride at 65 cents per mile for Tesla car owners. Tesla would make more from their share of the robotaxi business and Tesla would have post-lease vehicles dedicated to the robotaxi fleet.

SOURCES- Elon Musk, Tesla, CNBC
Written By Brian Wang, nextbigfuture.com