There is another doomer scenario that civilization will collapse because of climate change. This new doomer report is from the Australian National Centre for Climate Restoration.
All of the climate change doomer scenarios assume that the only way to adjust the atmosphere over the next several decades is to reduce emissions from vehicles, energy generation and industry to zero. These are huge challenges. There are already 1.5 billion fossil fuel using cars and trucks. There are over 25000 Terawatt Hours of energy being produced each year and 75% is fossil fuel based. Agriculture, industry, and building also produce CO2 or global warming gases.
They model how long it will take to change everything. They look at how fast we are going to change everything. They realize that we are not changing everything fast enough. They then repeatedly ask that everything be changed. This has failed for decades. They do not look at what has been improving the situation.
Every global agreement (Paris, Kyoto, Copenhagen) so far has not reduced the amount of global warming emissions for the past few decades. It has not gotten less each year. The amount of emissions has increased each year. These demands for bad plans keep failing. The response is they must scream louder and demand faster progress on change everything.
If we use an analogy to climate fixing to global deaths per year. There are 57 million global deaths every year and this will likely increase to 100 million per year. This means the 7.8 billion people in the world today will be wiped out within 100 years. The doomers would say that the only fix would be to make every person immortal. The doomers would scream louder that science has not made everyone immortal yet and they would keep screaming for faster immortality.
We all see the flaw it that analysis. It does not look at births and only at deaths. There are 135 million births every year so that the deaths are offset.
The doomers claim that planetary and human systems will reach a point of no return by some date.
The doomers on climate all assume that CO2 and gases cannot be removed from the atmosphere at large scale. If reducing the emissions is too hard and takes too long then let us look at better offsets.
Shockingly… the Change Everything Demand is Stupid, Has Failed and Will Fail
The reason that emissions have not been reduced is that it is telling every industry and every country to become very poor or to stay very poor. Another part of the ask is to get rid of every car, plane and replace it with an electric vehicle powered by solar panels.
You owe $200,000 in student loan debt and $20,000 on your credit cards. The National Centre for Climate Restoration tells you all of your spending must drop to zero. No spending on food. No car. No house. It is the only way. Getting a better job or a second job is not something they can think about or consider.
From the time of the industrial revolution, humanity has generated about 2.3 trillion tons of CO2 and we now have 1 trillion tons more CO2 in the atmosphere than there was around 1800. Where did the other 1.3 trillion tons of CO2 go? Almost half was absorbed into the soil and plant mass and more than half went into the ocean.
Our CO2 problem would be twice as bad if not for the soil, trees and ocean.
By doubling the existing CO2 absorption process of the soil, plants and ocean we can offset the excess CO2 and other gases. This is not just the 50 billion ton per year amount generated by the vehicles, buildings and factories but the whole 1 trillion tons.
Below are Three Examples of What Will Work to Fix the Climate
There are examples for how we can scale up the tree planting process by more than double and how we can fix the soil and oceans. The other advantage is that we will not need to wait for Everything (cars, planes, factories and buildings) to all be fixed or replaced. We also do not require people to change cars, planes and factories and buildings. The rest of the economy can proceed or better we can phase or swap out those other things at a manageable 1% per year.
The problem with the solutions that will work for the doomers and many of the climate people is that those who produce the emissions do not get to suffer and are not forced to repent.
The world and climate will easily be saved and fixed in 40 years but the climate sinners do not repent or suffer. Many who are sane will view this as an advantage but many climate crusaders will not like the lack of suffering, the lack of repenting and the lack of guilt.
There are roughly 3 trillion trees on Earth — more than seven times the number of old estimates. A 2015 study by Thomas Crowther finds that human activity is detrimental to tree abundance worldwide. Around 15 billion trees are cut down each year, the researchers estimate; since the onset of agriculture about 12,000 years ago, the number of trees worldwide has dropped by 46%.
The researchers calculated there is enough room on the planet for an additional 1.2 trillion trees. An average individual tree can hold 1 to 10 tons of CO2 in its trunk.
If we assume an average of 4 tons per tree then about 300 billion trees would hold 1 trillion tons of CO2. More detailed calculations indicate that the 1.2 tillion trees would store about 160 billion tons of CO2. This would not be enough to erase the entire CO2 deficit. The CO2 deficit is 1 trillion tons total since the start of industrial revolution and 50 billion tons per year. Tree planting would offset ten years of emissions.
15 billion trees are lost each year and about 9 billion trees are planted for a cost of about $50 billion per year.
Biocarbon Engineering can speed up tree planting by 100 times using drones. 4000 drones planting 2 trees per second can be used to plant 10 billion trees per year. The trees take 10 to 20 years to mature.
Regenerative Agriculture for Better Soil that Absorbs CO2
Iron Fertilization of the Ocean
In 2012, 100 tons of iron was used to fertilize the ocean off of BC, Canada and to increase salmon fish stocks. There were record high salmon levels in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. The iron fertilization generated a plankton bloom visible from space and it probably weighed 3 to 30 million tons.
Of the carbon-rich biomass generated by plankton blooms, half (or more) is generally consumed by grazing organisms (zooplankton, krill, small fish, etc.) but 20 to 30% sinks below 200 meters (660 ft) into the colder water strata below the thermocline. Much of this fixed carbon continues into the abyss, but a substantial percentage is redissolved and remineralized. At this depth, however, this carbon is now suspended in deep currents and effectively isolated from the atmosphere for centuries. The surface to benthic cycling time for the ocean is approximately 4,000 years.
500 plankton blooms per year would sequester 50 billion tons of CO2 per year. Each plankton bloom could be generated for less than $1 million each.
SOURCES- Nature, youtube, National Centre for Climate Restoration
Written By Brian Wang
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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