Iran shipped over 2.5 million barrels per day of crude oil in April 2018, the month before Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal but monthly oil exports were down five times to 330,000 to 500,000 barrels per day in May, 2019. Oil made up 80% of Iran’s exports.
Ongoing estimates are that Iran could export between 200,000 to 550,000 bpd of oil but not all of the oil will be sold. Iran would likely maintain some shipments for debt repayment to China and India, and into storage in China, and smuggle a limited extra amount as it did under previous sanctions.
The US economic sanctions are cutting $42 billion per year of oil exports from Iran’s economy.
Iran’s nominal GDP reached a peak of $600 billion in 2012. Currently, Iran’s nominal GDP is about $330 billion. The nominal GDP is adjusted based upon the exchange rate.
Iran’s Oil Exports Down About 2 Million Barrels Per Day and US Oil Exports Are Up About the Same
The US has increased crude oil production from 10.5 million barrels per day in April 2018 to about 12.2 million barrels per day in May 2019.
The total US crude oil and oil products exports went from 6.6 million barrels per day in April 2018 to 8.8 million barrels per day in May 2019.
US crude oil exports went up from about 1.7 million barrels per day in April 2018 to 3.2 million barrels per day in May 2019.
Iran’s Economy Driven into an Economic Depression
An economic depression is a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or a recession lasting 2 or more years.
The Iranian economy shrank by 3.9% in 2018 and the IMF forecasts another -6% GDP in 2019. The US will have driving Iran into an economic depression by both definitions. The total Iranian economy will decline by over 10% and there will be a recession longer than two years.
Iran’s currency, the rial, has dropped by 60% over the past year. Inflation is up to 37% and the cost of food and medicine has soared by 40% to 60%.
Iran’s youth unemployment rate is close to 30% in a country where almost 40% of the 80 million people are under 25.
The unemployment rate in Iran stood at 13.9% in 2018. Projections for 2019 and 2020 have been put at 15.4% and 16.1% respectively. Iran reported unemployment of only 12% in the latest quarter.
An Iranian parliamentary report from September 2018 warned that rising unemployment could threaten the country’s stability. The report also said that if Iran’s economic growth remained below 5% in the coming years, unemployment could hit 26%.
SOURCES- DW, Financial Tribune, EIA, Wikipedia
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
55 thoughts on “US Sanctions Cut Iranian Oil Exports by Five Times and Iran is in an Economic Depression”
Nope, only the ones that speak against US tyranny …
Don’t have a choice eventually soldiers age out.
I have been shut down? News to me.
Note that both Luca and Warren seem to have been shut down. This is not a partisan thing.
Though you have to admit that if Iranian oil had free access to the market the price would be even lower (at least until and unless someone else’s production shut down because they couldn’t sustain production at $40)
Probably applies to Venezuelan oil too, but they apparently can’t sustain much production without falling apart. At least the Iranians are competent.
Though… putting the alfoil hat on… this means the USA has another weapon up their sleeve for dealing with say… Russia. “Hey Putin, if those tank columns get posted closer to the Polish border then we might suddenly get progress on the Iranian deal if you know what I mean…”
You are writing as though you think there couldn’t be any disputes among the Iranians over what the best policies are. Yes the mullahs are doing what you say, but *ANY* country has factions with more or less power who would do something different if they were the government.
Point being that the narrative of “Iranian moderates” does not actually exist as a coherent narrative description of reality. Iran got their billions and the moderates launched multiple proxy wars in the gulf.
Personally I wish the Iranians would stop the enrichment, stop the wars and join the world. Unfortunately when given a windfall of a hundred plus billion they pursued war.
Quite telling of their goals.
Oil is hovering near $50ish.
That can only be heard in your imagination.
Every time the US sanctions another ‘rogue’ oil state, the price of oil goes up – for US oil, and for that of ‘non-rogue’ states like secular, peace-loving Saudi Arabia.
He does a good dogwhistle.
Who needs war mr Trump when you have much more powerful instruments?
I have not moderated comments. The solidopinion system is running on automatic. People reporting comments can cause the system to automatically flag them.
I keep suspecting he’s a moby.
Taking radical, anti-American, anti-progress, pro-Muslim/China/Russia and sometimes even Nazi Germany positions and then making them look ridiculous and offensive.
On the balance of probabilities I think not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be a Texas oil worker who wants to make the “other side” look ridiculous.
We never did it, and it was totally justified, and it shows how militarily advanced we are.
Looks like Brian is back to his censoring best. Can’t have anyone have an alternative opinion, right Brian?
1) The wall is already partially built and construction continues.
2) Not publicly, unless there’s a new government.
3) Yeah, probably. I can’t seem to work up any strong emotion about that.
4) Doubtful. Sooner or later the steadily worsening conditions will work their way into the protected compounds and the senior military people propping up Maduro will turn on him.
5) Well this would be true if the things China says about its economy was true. Surely you don’t take the word of a totalitarian police state seriously? Outside analysis shows China boosts their economic data by at least 30%.
I’m sorry, that’s incorrect. But thank you for playing our game.
FWIW I got that narrative from some ex-muslims one of whom is from Iran. See this podcast.
I’m not sure this comment is Kosher.
Well sanctions come to mind. You know the ones that will squeeze the Iranian military dry.
Yes like the US.
They couldn’t pay them. They don’t want to arm them because the youth are the group that most hate the mullahs. Best to not teach them how to shoot accurately.
Not at all.
The US pumps all the oil it can out of the ground. We don’t have national targets, we don’t have a geopolitcal strategy for our oil fields. Oil production isn’t a function of what leaders want, just a function of the price of oil. Producers will pump even if they don’t make money because they are private businesses and are obliged to sell as much as they can.
Iranian supporters went from:
“False Flag Tanker Attacks!!! Iran Would Never Do Anything Like This”
“Yeahhh baby we shot down a drone”
In three days.
“Congrats Mr. Maduro you have won…”
checks notes once, twice, thrice…
“Post Socialism Venezuela”
Kind of proving my point there Luca.
When they run out of their windfall billions what then? They will still have wars running and no funds.
In the meantime their economy is dying but I suppose it is worth it, right?
They don’t have 5th gen fighters. Nobody does except the US. Russia and China have 4.5-ish that look 5th gen. Too few to make a difference. The US can fly more jets to the region. Its an original concept you may not understand, but planes fly over water or land to get to far away places. Look up some time dilrod. The US CAN and should take out their refineries if they are serious about getting the Iranian people to the point THEY, not the US, take out the Mullahs! USA, USA! Eat that, kid! You have no clue what the second amendment is about. Idiots in China and Japan have walked into schools and down the street slaughtering dozens of innocent children with knives. Different tool, same result. But I forgive you your ignorance. Folks with low level IQ have a difficult time understanding arguments that are not emotionally driven.
Let me know after we send in the Marines. If Trump finally gets tired of the shit show down there and Maduro did get rather stupid a day or two ago on that matter.
Gods you are delusions like everyone else who buys into Iranian, Russian and Chinese propaganda. Show me a fighter wing of those fighters instead of a press mock up in a hanger. I do like how your rewrote history to. Forgot the Green Revolution did we? Beating people to death and shooting unarmed teen girls is SO brave.
“I’m not sure how much of Trumps motivation was just to demolish anything done by Obama because Obama was guilty of being President while Black.”
Well, I’m quite sure that NONE of Trump’s motivation was to reverse Obama’s policies because the latter was both black (or, more accurately, half black) and also President.
No, Trump’s motivation was to demolish stupid policies that hurt the economic or security interests of this country. That most of those stupid policies were put in place by a half black man who was also President is of no relevance. If they had been put in place by Joe Biden, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton or any other President, he’d have done the same thing.
Count on that being true. Trump operated for 45 years in business in New York City. He hardly tried to keep himself out of the public eye, and he was very, very thoroughly vetted by every newspaper and TV station in the largest market in the country. If he was a racist, that would assuredly have been found out, and neither Jesse Jackson nor Al Sharpton would have been glad to associate with him (and his money). He’s surely far from perfect, but the only color that matters for him is green.
I hate to be a grammar/math Nazi, but statements like this:
“Iran shipped over 2.5 million barrels per day of crude oil in April 2018, the month before Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal but monthly oil exports were down five times….”
are misleading. What you SHOULD be saying is either:
1) “…but monthly oil exports were down 4/5….”
2) “…but monthly oil exports were down by 80% ….”
That point made, I want to thank you for your hard work and dedication in providing news and opinion regarding the future of technology. I absolutely love your blog, and I hope that you continue producing it for many, many years.
Iranians hate the mullahs. I know Iranians personally, do you?
Of course he is… But no, I don’t find his post that provocative. Drumpf, america is loosing, China is winning.. yada yada.. Always the same…. Never something intelligent mixed in just to throw us of the scent…
You obviously do.
Trump is not a racist. That’s a myth.
It’s interesting that Greek culture heavily influenced Roman culture, Roman culture heavily influenced European culture, and European culture heavily influenced American culture, meanwhile, the Persians still can’t get along with anyone else.
Except it’s not really a Persian-Greek conflict anymore. All they have to do is join the rest of the world. They don’t even have to suck up to anyone, just act like a grownup country.
Unfortunately, there is nothing quite so bad for a country and its people as a leadership that is so focused on personal aggrandizement that it is willing to prioritize that far ahead of the public weal.
Becoming a grownup country that can play well with others, however good that would be for the people, would probably lead to a more secular government . . . and that would be anathema to the current regime’s grip on power as they are under no illusion that the people would choose them were there alternatives.
He is a troll. If you puruse his posts it is like reading text generated by poorly written Python script. The worst thing you can do to him is not respond. Some times it is hard to do. He is fairly good a pressing buttons.
If Iran was smart it would recruit all of the unemployed young people into the army. This way they get a job and Iran gets more people to protect it.
The lesson that is never learned is that no country can depend on natural resources for long term economical growth. You need to diversify.
Not too quick on the uptake, are you? OK, I’ll make it simple: Do not use the frase “Just saying…”. Got it?
“Iran’s Oil Exports Down About 2 Million Barrels Per Day and US Oil Exports Are Up About the Same”
Are you suggesting that a purpose of the US sanctions is creating an opportunity for US oil exports?
Will the people behind this ever be punished?
It’s OK to be raving, but please don’t copy other more intelligent commenters bylines. Don’t defile “Just saying…” with you stupidity.
“because Obama was guilty of being President while Black”
and there goes your credibility.
Ah, you probably believe the Venezuelans love Maduro too.
That’s Luca, the mullah-fellator who was molested on the second floor.
Those charts sure seem to indicate otherwise, you’re delusional. Is your name Luca?
Relatively secular? Relative to WHAT? Choose one less secular country.
Did it ever occur to you that perhaps Obama was the racist anti-semite? I think if I viewed everything in the entire world through the lens of racism that I’d have to consider that highly likely possibility. Even if Trump does hate Obama, there are much better reasons than his skin color, for instance his arrogance, his insults, the fact that he’s a democrat, etc. Use some common sense Jim.
Actually, the orange baboon sometimes pathetically tend to follow on his word and his military threats on Iran are recent.
There is soooo much more pain the U.S. could inflict on Iran. Take out the refineries. No gas, no go for military or economy. The people of Iran need to overthrow their leaders. It will have to be a bloody coup unless the military cuts the head off the snake. This is why America has the 2nd Amendment.
Ah well Ben Rhodes is proud of the narrative he sold that you accepted. As soon as your “relatively secular” Iranian leaders got their billions they funded war in the gulf. “relatively”
Running out of military options, as next time they will try a sabotage will lead to a strong american reaction, they are ripe for a deal.
The relatively secular Iranians negotiated the deal while Obama was US president. Trump pulling out of the deal made it so the Mullahs can say ‘look, you were fools to trust the US’. A big win for the fundie muslims against the less moderates in Iran.
I’m not sure how much of Trumps motivation was just to demolish anything done by Obama because Obama was guilty of being President while Black.
Yep, being on the bad side of the US is not where you want to be. Maybe the Persians should try honey and not vinegar. Like that will happen.
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