On the recent quarterly conference call, Elon Musk indicated that Tesla will have clear roadmap to a Terawatt hour per year of battery production. If all of the Terawatt hour per year of batteries were used for electric cars (average of 70 KWh of batteries per car) then this would be 14.2 million electric cars per year. Tesla will produce semi-trucks and battery storage. A Terawatt hour of batteries per year would be about ten million electric cars each year, a large number of semi-trucks and batteries for stationary storage systems.
In April, Tesla revealed that battery production was at 23 GWh per year. Full production of the first phase of the Gigafactory was to have 35 GWh per year. When Tesla and Panasonic first announced plans for Gigafactory 1, they planned to increase production capacity at the Nevada Gigafactory up to 105 GWh of battery cell production and 150 GWh of battery pack production.
A Terawatt Hour per year of batteries would mean 40 times current Tesla battery production and about 10 Gigafactories focused on batteries. However, fully converting to Maxwell dry batteries would increase production at the current factory.
Tesla now owns Maxwell’s Technology’s dry battery technology. This technology could double battery energy density for improved car range. The technology was claimed to increase factory production by 16 times. This would mean that three Gigafactories could produce a Terawatt hour of batteries per year.
In February or March, 2010, Tesla should have a Battery Day. They will talk about cell chemistry, module and pack architecture, and the manufacturing roadmap to a TWh per year. Tesla ‘Battery Day’ will be the third part of its Master Plan.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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