What is the Maximum Car Production for Tesla in 2019?

Tesla’s production and delivery of over 95,000 cars in the second quarter is about 7400 cars per week. It now appears that Tesla will get 3,000 cars per week from the Shanghai Gigafactory. Those cars will be delivered within days to buyers in China.

This means that Tesla could have 11,000 cars per week produced and delivered by the end of 2019. Tesla could have 104,000 cars in the third quarter and 140,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This would put Tesla at the higher end of its guidance for 2019 car production at 400,000.

Tesla has been standing by its 2019 delivery forecast of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles and said it may produce as many as 500,000 vehicles if its China factory reaches volume production in the fourth quarter.

If Tesla was going to get near 500,000 vehicles in 2018, then the production at the Fremont factory would have to get to about 9,000 cars per week, the China factory would need to start production in August. Third quarter production and delivery would have to be about 140,000 and the fourth quarter would have to be 185,000.