Germany and UK Will Be in Recession if Third Quarter GDP Growth is Negative

Germany might have a recession in 2019. Commerzbank Chief Economist Joerg Kraemer and Kiel Institute economist Jens Boysen-Hogrefe agreed that while there is more pain to come for Germany’s manufacturing sector, the nation’s current construction boom would inhibit any government stimulus program.

Germany’s second-quarter German GDP was negative and the third quarter we might see a slight decline in GDP. Two negative GDP growth quarter meets the definition of a recession.

The UK also had -0.2% GDP growth in the second quarter.

5 thoughts on “Germany and UK Will Be in Recession if Third Quarter GDP Growth is Negative”

  1. There was excess warehousing aka “hoarding” in UK to account for an end of March Brexit which didn’t happen. Same way the USA is stocking up on Chinese goods before tariffs hit, boosting Chinese numbers more than you might expect, but tanking them after the tariff also more than you might expect. So UK businesses brought purchases forward in time, so less were made in the quarter after.

    With that in mind these numbers are more concerning re:Germany than they are for the UK.

    Reply

Leave a Comment