Will Weisman is hosting the investment track at the 2019 Singularity Summit.
Catherine Wood of Ark Invest ($10 billion under management) is speaking and saying that innovation is the key to growth.
She indicates that public market investors have gotten overly fearful and are not investing in innovation.
The investment community have gone passive.
She is not talking about financial engineering to achieve growth. This is ruining GE and IBM.
Ark Innovation does not break up analysts by sector. They do not believe in sector classifications.
She comments on the inverted yield curve. This is a negative signal when short term interest rates end up lower than long term rates. This has meant that every time in the last 100 years that this has meant a recession with 6 yo 18 months.
Catherine indicates that they were predicting this situation would occur for a good reason. The good reason is technological deflation. Before 1929, for 50 years there was yield curve inversion 60% of the time. The reason there was powerful innovation with cars, electricity, factories and many telephones.
We are entering into a more powerful period of innovation.
Investing in benchmarks are investing in value traps.
Fintech will speed up money. China has $24 trillion of mobile value transfer (92% of the world’s $26 trillion). This is more than China’s GDP because the velocity of money is increased. China mobile money will turnover over 5 times each year. The 9 month-old Ark Invest forecasts of $55 trillion of mobile value transfers in 2022 are way too low.
Electric cars will fall below the cost of gasoline cars in 2022 and will be $15000 per electric car versus $25000 per gasoline car in 2025.
Ark invests has a forecast of 26 million electric cars in 2023 versus 4-5 million forecasts from EIA and other analysts.
In 2028, self-driving taxis will be a $7 trillion market. Ark believes Tesla is the leader to capture this market.
$75 billion market for monogenic diseases. This is only 2% of disease.
Tereadyne is the leader in collaborative robots.
Aerospace and medical devices are the sweet spot for 3D printing. The stocks are down now and the reason is 3D success will not be in the consumer market. The consumer expectation was wrong and there is disappointment now.
2019 Singularity Summit Investing / Economics Track
• Investing in Disruptive Innovation: Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO, CIO, ARK Invest
• A Bold Perspective on Investing: Neal Bhadkamkar, General Partner, Bold Capital Partners
• Insights from the Frontlines of VC: Scott Barclay, Partner, Data Collective; Amy LaMeyer, WXR Fund, Will Weisman, Executive Director, Summits, Singularity University, Neal Bhadkamkar; Nishita Henry, Chief Innovation O cer, Deloitte, moderator
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
“This has meant that every time in the last 100 years that this has meant a recession with 6 yo 18 months.”
I do not believe this statement from the article is accurate. Every recession HAS been preceded by an inverted yield curve, but not every inverted yield curve has been followed by a recession. Big difference