Last week, US crude oil production reached a record 12.5 million barrels per day. Other liquids like natural gas liquids, ethanol and condensate reached 7.1 million barrels per day.
The combined numbers are the all liquids production which is now 19.6 million barrels per day.
There was a 2012 report from Harvard Professor Maugeri.
At the time, peak oil websites freaked out that Maugeri predicted the success of US shale oil production. Maugeri predicted that with 3.5 million barrels per day more from shale oil and an oil price of over US$70 per barrel that the US would produce 11.2 barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas liquids.
Maugeri had predicted 11.6 Mb/d for production (crude oil and natural gas liquids) in the US by 2020. He forecasted US liquids capacity for 2020 at 13 Mb/d, adding biofuels without including refinery gains, which for the US was 1 Mb/d in 2010. Refinery gains are a kind of Gas to Liquids product.
Here is a link to the old peak oil site, the Oil Drum, trying to indicate why they thought Maugeri was insanely optimistic.
US production is now at 17.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas liquids and it is heading higher in 2020.
This is 6.3 million barrels per day higher than the Maugeri prediction.
Maugeri’s underestimation of the shale oil revolution still indicated the US and Canada would become the most important global oil powers.
Nextbigfuture has tracked the increase in US oil production over the years.
SOURCES- EIA, Maugeri – Oil: The Next Revolution and What it Means for the World, Oil Drum
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
30 thoughts on “US All Liquid Oil Domination Nears 20 Million Barrels per Day”
I’m cutting down. I have 2 of my vehicles for sale, which will leave me with only 5.
Well, 5 and a half if I get back to building that final one.
Where did I mention 100% EV penetration? All I said was that we are going to meet peak oil demand in 2029.
When electric cars will be fully competitive they will be everywhere globally, actually 3rd world different type of scooters already are. It also depends on the grid, wherever the electrical grid is strong there will be a move toward EVs. So will happen where gas supply network is lacking. So it is wrong to assume that the 3rd world will be left far behind.
Indonesia’s population is 260 million people.
Africa accounts for the entirety of future human population growth.
India is enormous and lacks any kind of EV ready electric grid.
Your argument for 100.0% EV penetration would be much stronger if you weren’t ignoring half the human race.
I’m pointing out that mass EV adoption must be preceded by mass availability of a power grid.
cont. In 166 out of 192 countries there are less than 500 vehicles per 1,000 people. In 79 countries less than one person in ten has a vehicle. In India 22 cars per 1,000 people.
1.2 billion road vehicles on the planet. If the average person wants 2, that is 15 billion+ vehicles.
I don’t think we can extract enough lithium economically for 15 billion vehicles.
Does that mean we can’t get way from fossil fuels? No. We can make fuels like biobutanol.
Electric is super easy to do with trains…no batteries required. So why are there still diesel locomotives?
2.4% of what is being sold ignores that the replacement rate is very low. The average road vehicle in the US is now 11.8 years old. 263,765,695 motor vehicles in the US. There are perhaps 1.3 million electric cars: 0.5%
Also, you ignore that for many people electric does not yet make sense. This is true for all the people who don’t own their own garage. People like renters, and many condo owners. When you have recharges that take 4 minutes, and a range of 500+ miles, the garage will be a luxury. Like it is today for internal combustion. Then there are people in crowded cities that would not find anywhere to park, if they had a car.
That is not to say that the demand for oil will not go down. But it is more likely to rise for the next say 15 years as Africa and India buy more cars.
Demand for cars appears to top out at about 800-1300 cars per 1000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita Might be much higher. If I could have whatever cars I wanted, I would probably have 6-8 not counting tractors and off road stuff: big motorhome, medium motorhome, small motorhome that looks like a van, a cargo van, a small dump truck, a nice hybrid SUV, a minivan, and a nice convertible. Others don’t like road trips, don’t want to modify their property, don’t have and don’t wank kids, and are perfectly fine with 2 or 3 vehicles.
India is launching a huge EV program and their market size is only 3-4 million cars a year, the other markets you have mentioned are not in size worth even referring to. The world as a whole is moving away from oil in almost all sectors.
You can tell from the growth rate since it will slow dramatically when it reach saturation.
It seems to result in societal stagnation (unless you are Norwegian).
There is probably a lesson to be learned here about human beings.
When is India setting up a EV ready power grid? Indonesia? Sudan? Egypt?
You’ll be able to spot worldwide EV adoption a mile away. You’ll need much cheaper EVs and you’ll need a power grid to support them.
Dude. The USA can have its cake and eat it too.
You can produce 100.000% of oil and also sell EVs. There is no reason why a nation can’t have both and the proof of that is that the USA basically has both.
Exxon and Tesla are different companies. No need for the USA to pick favorites. Worldwide EV penetration is going to take decades (unreliable power grid means no EVs) so dominating oil production for 20 years is just fine.
How long till EVs dominate India? Indonesia? Africa? Because that’s 2 billion people who don’t have reliable electricity right now.
I don’t know where are you getting that only 40% of oil is used for transportation, the numbers for the US are 70%, not sure what is included and even if you take down locomotion which is also quickly electrifying, aviation and maritime, you will not get down to 40%.
Not all predictions do. Mine however *did*.
Your thesis remains fatally flawed.
P.S. I own a Tesla and think EVs will do great. It remains that 40% of oil is not transportation and that demand has plenty of room to grow.
Yes a *very* different pace for bioplastics. 0.2% of world demand and growing 20% every 5 years
I agree that R. K. was talking about peak oil demand, not peak oil supply.
But using the same term to mean two completely opposite things is just asking for trouble.
Just add it to the list I guess.
Cleave, fast, drop, peak oil, all downhill from here, dust, draw, inflammable, left, off, sanction, table a topic, etc. etc.
I don’t think any government has been able to control 100% of oil production. At least not since there was at least one oil well in 2 countries.
Mark isn’t talking about solar and wind. He’s talking about electric vehicles.
Solar and wind are electrical generation systems, and as hardly anyone uses oil to generate electricity they aren’t really relevant to an oil discussion.
Having said that: 97.5% in 10-15 years?? Really??
I don’t think that the current predictions take fully into account that EVs will become fully competitive by 2025, that we are already moving away from oil in seafaring, aviation, plastic and power generation toward natural resources, gas and electrification altogether having an exponential effect that will be felt in few years.
It is all being taken care of at different pace electrification, natural gas and renewable resources for aviation, sea faring, locomotion, plastic. and power generation.
And 100% government control of the oil production, which historically works out very very badly.
40% of oil isn’t used for transportation, and increased use in the developing world will probably double total world demand for that purpose. Then there’s aviation demand. I’m not saying it won’t help re:CO2 because it will; you can landfill plastic, recycle, and/or burn it in a CO2 capture plant.
But your core thesis is quite flawed. Peak at 2040 and then a halving every 50 years after that of world per capita use of oil.
Peak Oil Demand.
Exponential growth indicates that 2.5% will be 97.5% in about 10 to 15 years. Not good for oil.
World prices can be controlled by anyone that can add or remove a nontrivial % of total supply. The only way for a country to escape that is to be 100% self sufficient and ban exports.
Your timeline is overstretched. We are going to reach peak oil late in the next decade most likely. Soon, even with OPEC and Russia quotas oil producing countries will not know what to do will all the oil they have.
If demand goes down then production goes down in response to the low prices.
If you make production go down faster than demand drops then you cause poverty and international tension which is bad.
I agree that oil will not be a significant world trade in 2050, and much less important in 2040. But until that happy day it is best if world prices are not controlled by the Middle East and Russia.
Australia and Chile have domination in Lithium production, Congo in Cobalt, China in rare earth, these are the critical bottle neck that may develop, oil is the 70’s and 80’s dudes, anything that we need to care about oil is how to bring its production down. The demand growth has already slowed significantly.
EV/battery/renewable production increases only support US oil production dominance as a trend vs traditional OPEC exporters. Fracking unlike traditional oil is quite responsive to demand. Traditional oil drilling was exploration and producing wells kept producing at low cost for a long time. Fracking drilling is production. Every well produces but not for a long time. They can easily be drilled and capped in response to low prices and switched on as price rises.
Only idiots call oil production in the 21st century domination when the world is at 2.5% EV production already.
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