US All Liquids oil production is at 19.6 million barrels per day. US oil production is forecasted to increase by 1-2 million barrels per day by the end of 2020. US crude oil production is at 12.5 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia had to cut oil production to support oil prices. Saudi Arabia is producing 10.6 million barrels per day.
Russian crude oil production is at 11.7 million barrels per day.
The US will be passing the 20 million barrel per day all liquids production level by the end of this year.
The US all liquids oil production should pass combined Saudi Arabia and Russian oil production levels in 2021.
Canada is at 4.2 million barrels per day of crude oil production.
Combined US and Canada crude oil production should surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia crude oil production in 2021 or 2022.
Mexico is at 1.68 million barrels per day of crude oil production.
Combined US, Canada and Mexico crude oil production could surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia crude oil production in 2020.
Combined US, Canada and Mexico all liquid production should surpass OPEC crude oil production in 2020.
The US will increase from 12.5 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to 17 million barrels per day in 2025.
The US will increase natural gas liquids from 5.5 million barrels per day today to 8.5 million barrels per day to 2025.
If OPEC remains frozen at about 26 million barrels per day, the US will be very close to equaling OPEC based upon oil and natural gas liquid production.
US All liquids production in 2025 would be about 27 million barrels per day. The US oil and liquids production could surpass OPEC in 2025.
The US uses about 21 million barrels per day in oil and liquids. Increased use of electric cars and other efficiency gains will keep this level of oil usage steady and could decrease US consumption. This will mean that the US would be a net exporter of about 6 million barrels per day in 2025. At $60 per barrel, this would be about $131 billion dollars per year.
This will be a huge geopolitical and business shift.
Bloomberg has tracks OPEC production targets.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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If there is a big push towards adopting e-bikes (250-maybe 5000W) instead of e-cars (100-500 kW) then existing electrical systems could probably support a huge % of the population.
Which is of course what we see in China. Millions of ebikes.
People I know with ebikes absolutely love them. At least as much fun as a motorbike, for a fraction of the running cost. Quiet. Light enough to carry upstairs or onto a train. Even get some green points to allow you to smuggly cut dead someone who just bought a Toyota Pius.
For this to be a market changing thing in the west (which now includes such “western” nations as Japan) would require government intervention.
Or at least “intervention” such as the government NOT stepping in to suppress/regulate/tax a new technology as soon as they see people starting to use, enjoy and benefit from it.
So that won’t happen. The powers that be are not mentally capable of keeping their grubby paws off anything that is popular enough to actually start to replace cars.
As EV climb the learning curve and as the quantity increases the price will diminish. ICE cars vary in price based on performance. Based on performance EV cars are well priced. And you do save a bunch of money that used to pay for gas. We drive about 1,000 miles a month. At 15 miles to the gallon and $3 to the gallon that’s about $200 a month which is $2,400 a year. Over ten years that’s $24,000. That premium price for an EV doesn’t seem so bad after all.
Recession does not mean life stops. GDP during the “Great Recession” fell less than 5%, life was little changed for many people.
I picked up boat loads of bank stocks in Feb 2009, just dumb luck that was as close to the bottom as luck will get, most of which i still own. Not good times for all, but it could have actually been bad.
The cooling affects of aerosols wasn’t strong enough to overcome the warming affects of co2
I don’t see a global recession coming. A downturn in Europe as China buys less stuff from suppliers and local demand is very weak anyway as real incomes haven’t risen that much. China slower growth as they need to adjust to over-production. US demand is still pretty ok as people have more pocket change (and you take out spending on healthcare and housing). Not super strong, but not recession-level. Cheap debt is what makes the economy run and that isn’t getting more expensive either.
I don’t think oil use will collapse, but there is a long term decline as ICEs become more efficient and natgas is the king of electricity generation. Natgas will power EVs, just too bad there is nowhere near the power gen built to charge all those EVs people might buy.
re global trade. This topic is irrelevant, imho, to financing. As the US becomes a net hydrocarbon exporter (in USD), The buyers (e.g., Germany, Japan) simply replace their current supplier (e.g., Russia/Qatar) with the US, all in USD.
The cost of trade financing is a function of interest rates, where, for USD (and EUR/JPN for that matter), trade has no influence. Rates are influenced by the financial assets market that overshadow commodities flows by a factor of 200x.
But they had a theory see, that global cooling was caused by pollution and the only way to keep the planet warm was to shut down industry and make people not drive cars so much.
I wonder what ever happened to that theory?
Tech development continues even during global recessions.
A lot of the “World War 2 technical developments” were actually made during the Great Depression. The just weren’t mass produced until the 1940s because, you know, Great Depression.
Anyway, so it’s not ridiculous to propose:
However we are left with the original question of: why should we believe there will be a global recession?
The figures need to be given in barrels of oil equivalent, not raw volume, for comparisons to be meaningful. Different fuels have different energy densities.
Let’s take your view. As oil collapses in price and the global recession kicks in, who is going to be propping up the EV market? Overpriced cars, not economically viable without subsidies. Look what happened prior to the oil spikes in ’08. Gas guzzlers wouldn’t sell and Prius picked up. As oil went down in price gas guzzler sales soared. As oil drops in price it will help, not hurt petrol vehicles. ICE vehicles are getting much more efficient while oil prices are going down in your scenario. People won’t buy EVs in this doom and gloom you forecast. EVs won’t put serious pressure on oil demand for at least 25 years. It’s an eventuality that the world get’s off ICE cars, but the coming global recession you predict will not be the driver you predict it will be.
Not going to happen. The on coming global recession will cause a collapse of both oil demand and production. And by the time the economy recover the EV revolution is going to put a severe stress on oil demand. The future for oil is dim.
This projection is really good news for those that, 40 years ago, were worrying about the next ice age, which wasn’t even expected until +20,000 years from now.
Now where is that graph to laugh at…
I think one thing that’s not being fully captured in the geopolitical and economic shift is the lack of investment in conventional oil fields abroad. Without continuous investment oil production declines and the ROW started to feel the effects of having to go “higher up the tree” to pick the fruit starting as early as 2005. U.S. shale really changed the game and that’s coming from someone who was a very verbal doubter of the industry for a very long time. Cost of production continues to fall and the apparent size of the resource continues to grow. “Legacy” debt and production should work its way through by ~2021 and the industry should be cash flow positive by then.
The one thing nobody is talking about is the effect this will have on foreign trade. It seems the U.S. is in a very strong protectionist cycle with the 2020 election likely being between Warren and Trump (and Warren is even more of a Hawk than Trump). If the U.S. becomes an oil exporter that removes dollars from the rest of the global system which increases the cost of USD trade financing. Normally this would simply lead to substitution but the only other remotely viable candidate, the Euro, is a basket case.
Right on the money Brian.